Ten reasons why Doug Melvin should be fired. These assume the Brewers do not make the playoff this year.
1. Zero World Series appearances in 21 years as an MLB general manager.
2. Melvin teams have posted a 1592 - 1627 regular season record.
3. Melvin teams have totaled one playoff series win in 21 seasons.
4. Melvin teams have posted a 7 -18 record in post-season play.
5. The Brewers have been to the playoffs two times in Melvin’s tenure in Milwaukee. That is hardly a mark of true success, as 25 of the 30 MLB teams have been to the playoffs at least two times during that timeframe.
6. The Brewers have won one division title in 13 years under Melvin.
7. In 20 seasons, Melvin teams have finished in the bottom five in ERA 10 times and in the top five in team ERA only 3 times (rankings only include American League teams when Melvin was the Ranger’s GM and National League teams for Melvin’s Brewer years). The Brewers are 14th in ERA out of 15 National League teams so far in season #21.
8. This will likely be the fourth year in a row that the Brewers miss the playoffs. Here is how some of the other small market teams have performed recently. Cincinnati in the playoffs in 2012 and 2013. Kansas City in the World Series in 2014. Baltimore in the playoffs in 2012 and 2014. Pittsburgh in the playoffs in 2013 and 2014.
9. Ron Roenicke was fired because his performance wasn't good enough. Roenicke's career regular season winning percentage with the Brewers was .508. Doug Melvin's career regular season winning percentage with the Brewers is .489.
10. The current team has a 16-30 record, which is the worst record in the majors.
1. Orlando Arcia SS (20 yrs old) .325BA, .382OBP / .832OPS - Defense + (4 years below average age of AA)
2. Clint Coulter RF (21 yrs old) .259, .347, .847 (1.5 years below average age A+)
3. Tyrone Taylor CF (21 yrs old) .262, .307, .649 (3 years below average age AA)
4. Luis Sardinas SS (22 yrs old) Mixed AAA and Majors - hitting .288 in the minors / .300+ so far (small sample) majors.
5. Gilbert Lara SS/3b (17yrs old) - no games yet. - see you in 2019. Very high ceiling.
6. Monte Harrison OF (19yrs old) - .155, .274, .584 - struggling obviously... high ceiling guy
7. Kodi Medeiros P (19 years old) - 5.04 ERA, 10.8 K/9 (3 years below average age A-ball)
8. Tyler Wagner P (24 years old) - 2.01 ERA, 6.4 K/9, (.5 years below average age AA-ball)
9. Jacob Gatewood SS (19 years old) .184, .245, .532 (2.4 years below average age A ball) - 39Ks in 87ABs (provides excellent air-conditioning)
10. Devin Williams P (20 years old) - 2 starts.. 5.8 ERA, hard to give anything more at this point
Most of this talent is not advanced in the system and is still quite a bit away. Arcia should be advanced slowly through the system. We have Sardinas up already... no reason to bring up Arcia too soon. Let him season in AA and then AAA next year for full seasons. Bring him up in June in 2017 when he is 22 at the earliest. Im very encouraged by what he is doing. Could become a top 30 overall prospect in the majors if he continues to hit like he is. The only guy outside of Sardinas that I would consider bringing up in the next 2 years is Wagner... he's 24 in AA. If he continues to perform, I could see him being up in the next year or year and a half for good. Again, there is no reason to be rushing guys at this point. We are bad.. let these kids develop and don't stunt their growth by advancing them too early and seeing them fail... see Wei-Chung Wang! A guy I didnt mention, but love his name.. Cy Sneed (he is destroying A ball- but is 22 years old - he should be up in A+ or AA soon).
And, of course, the same principles apply in much more complicated scenarios, like run/pass balance in football. If teams pass too often, defenses will exploit it by keying against the pass. If defenses key against the pass too much, offenses will exploit it by running more. Indeed, a key insight of Game Theory is that how you balance the different options in an “optimal” (meaning equilibrium) strategy isn’t just a matter of how good each option seems in a vacuum, it matters how your opponent will adapt to your strategy overall. For example, it doesn’t matter if you’re theoretically “better” at passing than running: If your opponent is defending optimally you should be indifferent between the two. Thus your “optimal” balance between the two should actually be a matter of ensuring the defense has nothing to exploit. (Of course, if the defense isn’t defending optimally, you should do more of whichever gives you the best results).
Let’s use a concrete example: Should the Seattle Seahawks have run or passed at the end or their ill-fated Super Bowl drive? The game theory-savvy answer is basically “neither”: They should use whatever strategy gives the Patriots the maximum headache on defense—likely a mix of passes and runs.
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