10 Reasons Why Melvin Should Be Fired

but if things work out for him, it will be just fine

 

'a', not an.

 

 

Really, there is only 1 reason he should be fired. The team is under-performing.

 

 

 

I'd say it is poorly designed as well, particually the pitching.  I'd much rather have that first round pick than Loshe right now (that is 70% hindsight, wasn't thrilled with the move when it happened, but for 2/3rds of last season it was a good move).  Broxton was a mistake from the git go.  I'd like to complain about Krod, but he is actually pitching well.  I liked the Garza signing, still think there is a chance he can be productive, perhaps when Luc is back to catching again.  

 

Did not like having Aram come back, but there was no one else in the system (another problem).  

 

I liked the Lind trade, didn't mind bringing Parra back, and liked the Gallardo trade.  Don't really have strong feelings about the managerial moves.  

 

But it doesn't really matter, Melvin is not going anywhere, at least not fired.  I like the idea of bumping him up and getting in a new guy, as long as Mark A. gets a new guy and lets him do his job.  

 

The current test is how well Melvin can gut this roster this year so the new guy can have a clean slate.  

They have to know they're in baseball hell. And on a division where Cubs are poised to dominate in the near future, and St.Louis always looming, you have to know when to fold 'em as they say. Not the perpetual rebuild, but a reset.

They have to deal some guys in order to reset - that includes Lohse and Garza and Ramirez and I would certainly consider other guys like Segura and C Gomez if the price is right.   Teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh took their lumps but got a lot better through the draft and develop model and STL is the best in the league at scouting and developing.   Gotta get worse before you can get better

The gallardo trade sucked if they were looking to be competitive which they were. Sardinas is not a solution at SS or second. His obp over his career in the minors is adequate at best and his arm is not strong enough to play SS.

 

Melvin is not going anywhere because Mark A is too clueless to own any sports franchise. The guy may be a genius making his money elsewhere but he's not even a sniff in Mark Cuban's league in running a sports team. You can't settle for career mediocre who has no idea wasting money on Braden Looper, Randy Wolf, Jeff Suppan, and Kyle Lohse. He should've threw more money at Greg Maddux and tried to find lightning in a bottle with what St Louis and Altanta had done with some reclamation projects as FA's not soft tossers like he's had.

 

The guy lived off what Dean Taylor started him with in JJ Hardy, Fielder, etc while making the trade of Richie Sexson for Bob Wickman. Has Melvin even come close to a fleecing? His best trade for a few months of CC for a first round exit in the playoffs. The biggest irony was losing CC to the Yankess who was the second highest rated FA to Mark Texiera from the Angels. The pick the Angels got in the draft was Mike Trout. The trade of Greinke looks even worse now because Cain, Odorizzi, and Escobar look like good to great players while the Brewers just have Segura and a chokejob in the NLCS for it.

If I could find lightning in a bottle, the first thing that I'd like to do, is to save every day
'til eternity passes away just to spend them with you

If Melvin keeps his job it will only be because he falls in line and does whatever Danny-boy Attanasio commands him to do. 

 

It would be interesting to see if any of the writers will go through Melvin's trade record and put together all the WAR numbers.  IMO the Sabathia trade is a push at this point in time.  Cleveland made out like bandits in terms of WAR, but the Brewer's did make the playoff for the first time in what seemed like an eternity.

 

Fangraph's WAR numbers for the players involved in the deal:

 

Brewers got:

-CC Sabathia - posted a +4.7 WAR for the half season plus he pitched in Milwaukee

-Kentrail Davis - Brewers used a sandwich pick they received after losing Sabathia as a free agent, Davis never made it to Milwaukee

-Max Walla - Brewers used the second rounder from the Yankees on Walla who never made it to Milwaukee

 

Indians got:

-Michael Brantley = so far his WAR with the Indians is +11.9

-Zach Jackson = posted a +0.4 WAR during his time in Cleveland

-Rob Bryson = never made it to Cleveland

-Matt LaPorta = a colossal bust, ended up with a -1.3 WAR

 

Brewers = +4.7 WAR

Indians = +11 WAR

 

You are not comparing apples to apples with your use of WAR (you probably knew that) Michael Brantley's highest WAR with Cleveland was 6.3 (fangraphs) in 2014, he'd not surpased +3 in any other season.  I don't know where you got +11.9, but he has not been an +11 WAR for Cleveland (not saying he isn't an excellent player).  It looks to me like you added all his WAR together for a total, which is a reflection of how long you have played, not your season by season production.  Using your method, Randy Wolf's WAR so far is 27.6.

 

This stops at 2008

 

Hardy for Gomez seems like a win.  Trading for Carlos Lee didn't amount to much, but in terms of WAR, another win (later trading him for MENCH and Cordero was a huge flop).  I think trading Aoki for Smith trade was the right move.  Doug Davis for Johnny Estrada still goes down as the worst move ever, only challenged by the acquisition of Yuni B.  

 

It seems to me Melvin was never as good trading assets for youth after the Sexon trade (and much, much later, the Hardy trade).  

 

Lets not forget general managers do more than make trades; Aoki, Gagne, Cameron, Riske, Gomez extension, Bill Hall's extension, Lucroy's extension, Suppan, Loshe, and last but not least, Ken Macha.  

 

I still think there is zero chance he gets canned this year, so pin your hopes he can turn any kind of this trash to treasure.  

 

 

When a GM trades away 6 years of player control for a rental, yes, I think it's fair to count all of those 6 years.  I do agree that it's not a straight type of "apples for apples" trade, which is why I mentioned that the deal did help the Brewers make the playoffs for the first time and that I would still consider this trade to be a push even though the WAR figure heavily favors the Indians.

 

As far as Wolf, if the Brewers had traded for him prior to his rookie year and he went on to accumulate 13+ years of service time, start 372 games, have a 133-120 record and post a 4.21 ERA all in a Brewer uniform, I'd have no problem saying that the Brewers acquired 27.6 wins in that part of the trade.  Most all Brewer fans are going to remember the bad Randy Wolf (with good reason), but there were some pretty good seasons mixed in there (including 2011 when he was pitching for Milwaukee).

 

I agree that Melvin will be the GM through the season, which I think is unfortunate because his track record indicates he should have been fired long ago.  Personally I would love to see Attanasio replace Melvin with Ray Montgomery once the draft is finished and give him a 3+ month audition for the GM job past this season.

Again, my issue is using WAR as a counting stat.  It fails for context in the trade in many ways, especially as you are using it for “winners” and “losers.”  Brantley could have been a .8 WAR since the trade and you would have called Cleveland the winner. 

 

In 2008, trading for a 4.7 war lead to the first playoff for the Brewers since 1982.  This was huge for Milwaukee and gate attendance has reflected that ever since.  Despite a cumulative higher WAR since the trade, Milwaukee has two playoff appearances and 6 playoff wins.   Cleveland, the big winners, have one playoff appearance (if you count the wild card loss in 2013).  It took six years since the trade for Brantley to OPS over .800.  Brantley has certainly blossomed into a fine players, but for Brewer fans to lament that trade in any way simply baffles me. 

 

I do agree Melvin has been given enough time, just not sure I have any faith Milwaukee can get the right “new” culture in place.  I had hoped the Sabathia trade was the first step in building a sustained winning culture, it seems it wasn't (I was done with constantly having the best minor league system in baseball).  I'm not sure what the right way to do it is for Milwaukee.  They don't draft and indoctrinate like the Cardinals, don't have money like the Dodgers, seem unwilling to build and tear like the Marlins and can't afford the front office of the Devil Rays.  I feel like a viking fan.  

I agree.  The Crew needs to move Doug either up or out.

 

If I was Mark A, I would find the smartest and best available personnel guy (asst gm) in the Cardinals org and pay him big $$ to take over as Milwaukee GM.

As always great analogy EKB.  But please avoid the reference to Viking fan in the future. It makes me feels cheap, filthy, and DUM.

respected brewers gm doug melvin is considering taking another role w/ team. in talks now about it. more in #InsideBaseball

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) July 2, 2015

gm melvin contemplates new role w/ team. crew won more than anyone but stl in nl central last 10 yrs http://t.co/MPFm2DHE2W

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) July 2, 2015

#brewers melvin/attanasio have talked for weeks about melvin's possible new role/exec setup. could happen after season.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) July 2, 2015