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The more and more I look at where I think players will be drafted, and speculate on which players Ted will favor, the more likely it appears that Ted could take a running back at the end of round two.

 

Ted has shown a preference for bigger backs that can catch the ball, the only real exception to that would be Franklin from a couple years back.  Looking at the overall combination of size, athletic ability and production (running and catching), I think Boise State's Jay Ajayi and Northern Iowa's David Johnson will probably rank high on Ted's board.  In 2013 and 2014 Ajayi had 3200+ rushing yards and 72 receptions while Johnson rushed for 2800+ yards and had 76 receptions.  Both are 220 pounders that had excellent overall combine workouts.  Only real knock on Ajayi is that he doesn't have true breakaway speed and Johnson is a bit of a fumbler, 13 fumbles but had over 1000 touches in college so 13 is not a ridiculous number.

 

If you buy the "always takes the best player available" theory, I think there is a good chance that Ajayi and/or Johnson might be the only players left in Thompson's top remaining tier at the end of round two.  When looking at the other team needs, all good NG's will probably be off the board, all the good ILB's could be off the board, and then Thompson would have these backs stacked against corners like Alex Carter and Eric Rowe and, quite frankly, a bunch of mediocre tight ends.  If that's the way it shakes out, then why not a running back?

 

When looking at the roster, the Packers only have two running backs that are "likely to make the 53-man roster" when the season opens.  And one of those players is James Starks, who is on the last year of his deal and will turn 30 before the 2016 season begins.  Is Ted likely to give Starks another contract at his age?  Maybe but probably not.  Lacy is there, but Ted might still see running back as a bigger need area then most of us fans.     

I hate it when Ted does a pre draft conference. The guy has the biggest blabber mouth ever.

Each year after listening to Ted every GM in the league knows who Ted wants to pick.

 

Now doe I have to put a just kidding statement here or will someone think I am serious?

Originally Posted by PackerJoe:

When looking at the roster, the Packers only have two running backs that are "likely to make the 53-man roster" when the season opens.  And one of those players is James Starks, who is on the last year of his deal and will turn 30 before the 2016 season begins.  Is Ted likely to give Starks another contract at his age?  Maybe but probably not.  Lacy is there, but Ted might still see running back as a bigger need area then most of us fans.     

Especially considering injuries at the position, not just for us but for everyone.  2 is not enough. 

 

These days, you have to factor in that your starters are going to miss games.  

@RapSheet: #Georgia RB Todd Gurley (ACL), who had medical rechecks yesterday & today, checked out fine, source said. Viewed as good to go for the draft.

 

@RapSheet: Hope is for training camp. Pre-draft, there are no issues  RT @FLSportDebater: @RapSheet little clarification please. Expected availability?

Last edited by ilcuqui
Originally Posted by Pistol GB:

       
Originally Posted by PackerJoe:

When looking at the roster, the Packers only have two running backs that are "likely to make the 53-man roster" when the season opens.  And one of those players is James Starks, who is on the last year of his deal and will turn 30 before the 2016 season begins.  Is Ted likely to give Starks another contract at his age?  Maybe but probably not.  Lacy is there, but Ted might still see running back as a bigger need area then most of us fans.     

Especially considering injuries at the position, not just for us but for everyone.  2 is not enough. 

 

These days, you have to factor in that your starters are going to miss games.  


       

With the depth of running backs in this draft, I would be quite surprised if our GM doesn't draft one.
Every year people on this board are screaming trade down and it never happens, they actually need a trade partner to do that, not many teams are willing to trade up in that spot to draft a player and pay him first round money and being a second round quality pick
Originally Posted by Packmeister:

       
Every time I do a mock draft, it screams "trade down", unless a top-tier player slips to #30. Are you seeing the same thing?

       


Yup! I'll be there live watching it.
Originally Posted by YooperPackfan:

       
Every year people on this board are screaming trade down and it never happens, they actually need a trade partner to do that, not many teams are willing to trade up in that spot to draft a player and pay him first round money and being a second round quality pick

       

Yes, I agree....takes two to tango...this will be a fun draft to watch, regardless.

McGinn could have basically said there is Waynes and Gordon and since Havenstein is over-rated there is basically nothing after Waynes and Gordon.  Jake Kumerow probably has about a 30% chance of being drafted, but he'll probably be one of the more sought after undrafted free agents on the market if nobody picks him.  Warren Herring had a shot to be a late round pick if he hadn't missed so much of his senior year due to injury.

 

I was pretty disappointed when the Badgers missed out on Mike Hardy and Will Hagerup when they were coming out of high school, but neither one of them really amounted to anything.  Although when considering how completely pathetic the Badger's punting game was last year, Hagerup still would have been an asset even with all the baggage factored in.

Originally Posted by YooperPackfan:
Every year people on this board are screaming trade down and it never happens, they actually need a trade partner to do that, not many teams are willing to trade up in that spot to draft a player and pay him first round money and being a second round quality pick

Yeah I'm usually one of those people that's screaming trade down, but I don't know how likely it is this year. The first 3 or 4 years we saw him bring in a lot of picks and kind of go for quantity over quality just to bring in depth, but it seems like the last few years he seems to be targeting specific players more and bring in quality over quantity. Maybe not, it seems like that though. 2008 was kind of a unique year because I think he was still trying to bring in a higher quantity of players and he found a willing trade partner. He didn't fleece the Jets in terms of trade value (according to the old value chart), but he got a MUCH better value on his early 2nd rounder (Jordy Nelson) than the Jets got on their 30th pick (Dustin Keller). There wasn't a player that he felt was worth that pick so he found a deal and got a better value IMO. If the value isn't there and someone will move up with a reasonable deal then I think he takes it, same goes for a trade up though. If the right deal comes along and there's a player he covets at that spot I could see him move up. 

Originally Posted by Grave Digger:

       
Originally Posted by YooperPackfan:
Every year people on this board are screaming trade down and it never happens, they actually need a trade partner to do that, not many teams are willing to trade up in that spot to draft a player and pay him first round money and being a second round quality pick
Yeah I'm usually one of those people that's screaming trade down, but I don't know how likely it is this year. The first 3 or 4 years we saw him bring in a lot of picks and kind of go for quantity over quality just to bring in depth, but it seems like the last few years he seems to be targeting specific players more and bring in quality over quantity. Maybe not, it seems like that though. 2008 was kind of a unique year because I think he was still trying to bring in a higher quantity of players and he found a willing trade partner. He didn't fleece the Jets in terms of trade value (according to the old value chart), but he got a MUCH better value on his early 2nd rounder (Jordy Nelson) than the Jets got on their 30th pick (Dustin Keller). There wasn't a player that he felt was worth that pick so he found a deal and got a better value IMO. If the value isn't there and someone will move up with a reasonable deal then I think he takes it, same goes for a trade up though. If the right deal comes along and there's a player he covets at that spot I could see him move up.

       

Well said...anything can happen. I wonder how much other teams are looking at the Packers' success at Draft & Develop, and are starting to adopt the same strategy. I still think there are some desperate teams who are going to make mistakes...probably fewer than in the past. If they're smart, anyway. 
Last edited by Packmeister
quote:
I still think there are some desperate teams who are going to make mistakes...probably fewer than in the past. If they're smart, anyway.
You're assuming things about the Vikings not in evidence.

Yes, there is a huge void in QB quality after Brady, Manning, Brees and even the next tier down in age until you get to Luck, Wilson?, Rodgers.  You got a lot of good but not great QB's in their early 30's, then nothing until the last three.  I sneak AR in there because he had very little wear and tear on him in his first 3 years.

I'm also curious to see how the edge defenders who are rated highly actually fall. Guys like Beasley, Fowler, Ray, DuPree and Gregory are built like 3-4 OLBs, but do Ray, Gregory and DuPree have the lateral athleticism to play in space.

From TT presser, ongoing:

@ByRyanWood: Thompson says value trumps everything else in draft, even specific needs: "The pressure, in my view, is making sure we take good players."

 

@RobDemovsky: Thompson on drafting for need vs. best player: "I am adamant that's not the way to draft. You don't know what you're going to need."

 

“You don’t know what you’re going to need. This is real life. Injuries happen. Life happens. What you think you’re strong at, you may not necessarily be strong at. As long as you’re taking good, solid players, you’re getting value there. If you take players that aren’t as good, you may not be getting value.”

 

@RobDemovsky: Thompson: "Everyone gets a say (but) it's not a democracy. We don't vote. Ultimately I make the call." 

 

@packers: Thompson on #Packers CB position: We've got some young guys we think can play. We're going to give them a chance.

 

@RobDemovsky: TT: We like taking quarterbacks. It's just the way it works out. It's 'you want this more than this.'.

 

@RobDemovsky: Thompson said he does self-scout his drafts to learn from the good and the bad. 

 

@ByRyanWood: Thompson admits he keeps score on which scouts offer better opinions on prospects over years. Yes, those scouts' opinions carry more weight.

 

@ByRyanWood: A classic from Ted Thompson on his draft preparation: "I don’t have any secrets. And if I did, I wouldn’t tell you." At least he's honest.

 

@RobDemovsky: Say this about Ted Thompson, he may not reveal much but he has fun with it.

 

Last edited by ilcuqui

More fulsome TT rundown from JSO blog:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/300933061.html

Green Bay --- Running updates of G.M. Ted Thompson's pre-NFL draft news conference...

On Lee Remmel... I came here in 1992 and Lee was an established force already. We lost him this week. He was an interesting fellow and he meant a lot to the Green Bay Packers.

On what they do the final week before the draft.... The finishing of it. We've been together for a long time. We have this down, we know what takes time and what doesn't take time. Most of the grind is over with. We have different things going on. There are relationships with other teams, agents, finishing up boards. As we get closer it all starts to die down.

On how much of these prospects he sees... Quite a few. Not as much as before with advent of video. If there's a pro day in Florida today, we can get video tomorrow. Still go to a couple, including Wisconsin.

On factoring in need... You factor everything in. But it doesn't carry as much weight as other organizations. ... That's not the way to draft, the way to draft is to take the best available player. You don't know what you need. This isn't play time. This is real life. People get banged up. Things happen. What you think you're strong at, you might not be strong at. As long as you take good solid players, there's value there. 

On pressure to fill spots, such as ILB... No, there's no more pressure on our part. The pressure on our view is making sure we take good players.

On finding starters... We can't get whacked out about the here and now. We need good value picks.

On meshing together opinions... Everybody has their say. But we've been at this. Everybody has their say. It's not a democracy. 

On remorse in draft room... Sure, you don't hit on all your picks in the draft room. Sometimes, it's should we trade down, sometimes it's should we trade up. 

On expecting as many rookies to contribute as this past year's.... Yeah, we expect guys, and I'll be saying this next week, we expect guys to come in and contribute to the veteran team we have in this building. We won't put a burden on them, but we'll expect them to come in and help us out.

On not announcing visits... We don't think it's a lot of peoples' business. If I can keep something from Team B just a little bit, then that helps the Packers in my opinion. We're not trying to keep secrets. 

On QB's running the spread so much in college... I understand what people are saying. You can find whether or not a guy can play quarterback. A lot of times you don't know what was called in the huddle and how they went into the progression of the play. ... I think you can find good players when they're there. 

On Ron Wolf taking a lot of QB's, Thompson not.... That's the way it's worked out. We do, too. We like taking quarterbacks. It's just the way it works out. We want this more than this. 

On the cornerback group right now... We feel OK. We've got some young guys who we think can play and we're going to give them a chance. We prefer to keep all of our guys, like I said at the combine. 

On taking six defensive players in 2012... Don't have a list in front of me, but I think most of the guys we took have contributed. Sometimes, it just doesn't work out. No magic pill we can take. Depend on our work and what we think is going to happen into the future. 

On taking wide receivers, success there... I don't think we do anything different, special with our receivers. We try to take good receivers like we do at other positions. 

On weighing the combine/pro days/testing... Take good ball players first and then see how they test after that. Don't take a guy based on the 40-yard dash or not take one due to a poor one. Based on position.

On learning lessons... You do self-examination on how we got to there, how come it worked, how come it didn't work. ... What are you going to do? But you examine it and see where you messed up. It's not anybody else's fault. It's my fault.

On when he was scouting a player, watching what he says around league... I wouldn't imagine so. I'm sure there's something in my past where I was a loudmouth. ... There's not many secrets. The question is how firm is your conviction.

How often do you fall in love with a guy and actually pick him... It varies. Sometimes, you like a guy but there's no way he's going to get to you. So you live with it. Sometimes, a guy stays on a board a little bit longer that you think is a good player and other teams might not appreciate as much.

On what he does now that maybe he didn't do before... Every draft is different going in, every draft is different. You learn from that. I ask my guys to stay up ready to go at all times. We try to stay on point and make sure we're prepared for almost anything to happen. You learn your way around and what to expect, what not to expect. The beauty of this business is the uncertainty. There's always that gasp when a name is called, people say 'He picked who?' So you don't want people to say, 'Who did Thompson pick?'

His very first pick alone establishes that I reckon.

 

"You never know what you're going to need...." 

 

Except when you know right now, like last year?  And the year before?

Last edited by Pistol GB

 

It's not a democracy, we don't vote. Ultimately, I make the call.

 

You do self-examination on how we got to there, how come it worked, how come it didn't work. ... What are you going to do? But you examine it and see where you messed up. It's not anybody else's fault. It's my fault.

 

 

Last edited by H5

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