Packers 2015 Defensive Line

The DL is the only position group on the defense I'm not worried about. They're going to be a very good group in 2015. DL has traditionally been singled out as TT's biggest weakness in building a team (both by fans on these boards, and by "experts"), but he's got a really good group lined up now. If they can squeeze another year out of Peppers and fix the disaster at ILB, this defense could be elite in 2015.

Great breakdown Satori.  I'm really hoping Jones, continues to get better and has a great year this year.  

I'm thinking the current group isn't all that good and if a quality prospect is there, TT won't hesitate to take him. Daniels is small and needs snaps off, Jones is still developing and not the most durable, and while the Raji/Guion tandem might be fine, they're both on one-year deals. The rest are just guys who are okay in a rotation, but not front-liners.

 

I'm also thinking they may go more 3-3 instead of 2-4 in a number of nickel situations, depending on the ILB situation.

I think that we DO have to worry a bit. But not so much for THIS year. Unless those backup rise to the occasion I think that the D-Line could use some real good projects for 2016.

With what they have under contract they can be very good up front. But, you can never have enough big guys. Always look beyond today.

 

 

If TT perceives a lineman such as Phillips, Davis, or Goldman to be a "difference maker", and they are there at 30, I would not be shocked if he took them. 

I think we have some decent guys up front, but most of them are either underachieving or maybe break-even at this point. I'd sure like to see all of them improve their play and durability this year, and the potential is there. The guys that could make the biggest step are Pennell, Robinson, and Thorton. 

If Datone is not big enough to take on double teams by now, I think it's likely he never will.

We know what we've got in Guion and Daniels, and know what to expect from Raji.

 

In any case, take good DL when they are available, assuming value and need line up with the BPA theory. Picking one in either the first 2 rounds of the upcoming draft wouldn't necessarily be a surprise, and a mindful eye has to look at 2016 and beyond as Satori mentioned in his original post.

 

Which is fair but if came down to a CB vs DL, I think he would go CB.  There is always room for improvement on this defense.  I think the only defensive position drafted that would leave me scratching my head would be safety. 

 

 

 

Great take Satori.

 

I agree on all points, Henry's included.

 

I think we have the depth of a guy or 2 steps up (Pennel, Robinson).  It would be a waste to go DL in the 1st.  I still "know" TT will go talent if it's there in later rounds and would be surprised if we didn't draft at least 1 more DL later in the draft.

 

ILB or CB is going to be our 1st pick based on best available.

 

Sandwich.

I'd agree. And Guion has the same issue, he struggles with double teams.

 

Datone wasn't drafted to be a 2-gap double team eater, so it is likely that he never will be good at it. He was drafted to be one of the 3- tech DL's in nickel and in pressure packages. His role is to penetrate, chase and disrupt... and in that role, he's doing very well and getting better. But... you can't have a crappy LB behind him. So as long as you upgrade that ILB position, his limitations in handling double teams are ameliorated.

Everytime I read a Satori post it's like I'm getting beat up by the inventor of scrabble

Or Howard Cosell.

Fixing...

a·me·lio·rate
əˈmēlyəˌrāt
verb

make (something bad or unsatisfactory) better.
"the reform did much to ameliorate living standards"
synonyms: improve, make better, better, make improvements to, enhance, help, benefit, boost, amend;

Jeebus, RP, whatever you inserted there f-ed up the formatting on the entire page. Can't read the collected wisdom.

 

EDIT: Thanks!

I haven't posted yet, so there is no wisdom to read. 

You can always post that other **** you throw out there all the time.

The other thing that will help our ILB situation is the interior DL being more settled and keeping our ILBs clean. Football is all about symbiosis, all position groups are relying on other position groups to do their jobs. A struggling DL will make even good ILBs look poor, but a consistent DL will make mediocre ILBs look a lot better! Getting a healthy Raji back at NT will be very helpful for our ILBs...the more double teams our DL draw the fewer OL there are to attack our LBs. I really feel like a 1st round ILB would be a big boost, but on the other hand it would be hard to pass on a talented DL like Eddie Goldman who will draw the attention of OL and can collapse the pocket. Grabbing a guy like Goldman at 30 and trading up for an ILB in the 2nd might be a good recipe for solving some immediate needs.

But the nature of this defense, particularly one gap 3-4 isn't meant for guys to try and absorb blockers all the time.  Raji's talent is actually being able to rush the passer for a guy his size.  I agree about getting a guy that can collapse the pocket but you can't have a pusscake party at ILB with this scheme.

Beyond Mike Daniels I see a whole lot of question marks. Will Datone finally step up and justify his draft status? Will Raji be effective coming off his injury? Will the younger players continue to develop? Will Guion continue to play well at a different position?

 

The potential and upside is there, they just need to do it on the field.

I don't think ILB in round 1 would represent commensurate value. I wouldn't be surprised if they ignore ILB in this draft completely. I am guessing OLB or CB will represent the right value, and it's not as if they can't use either.

No you can't have crappy ILBs, which is what we had, in any scheme. I think the primary job of any DL in any scheme though is gap integrity and keeping LBs clean though.

Yup- your LBs can't attack the LOS and create pressure if they're getting blocked.

Ted himself has said depth and need can break ties. Tough to think there will be a DL at #30 that is rated far enough ahead of the field at ILB, CB or TE to get the nod, but assume nothing about a Ted draft.

Doesn't matter.

 

Pack won't make a pick in the first round

I wouldn't mind seeing the 30th pick turn into a high 2nd & high 3rd.

Yeah all I've read about this draft is that after the top 15, picks 16-45+ could go in just about any order.  I've seen about a dozen players mocked to the Packers which fits the idea that there are probably 30 players in that second tier.  Hopefully there is a partner but would be great if say, Cleveland traded the 43rd and 77th picks for the 30th pick.  Probably only happens if a QB falls though but not sure if there is a QB worthy of the 30th.  

 

Nice write up on the d-line.  That group has me completely confused.  You look at them and it seems like they have the talent and depth to be a great group, but it's not showing up on the field.  Yeah getting another pro bowl caliber player would help but outside of that, does bringing in another guy help?  They have youth, so not like you NEED to bring bodies in to develop.  And they have veterans so going free agency isn't going to help.  I just don't know how to improve the DL outside of internally developing the guys already on the roster.  

I think unless you are 5 deep with all pro players there is always room for improvement. Raji is a question mark and is on a 1 year deal and for all the positives he showed last year Guion is 28 and on a 1 year deal so it's not like he's a long term answer. Daniels is a consistent performer, but he's up for a new deal soon also...I expect him to get re-signed because he's been a good productive player, but you never know. Right now we don't truly have a long term answer on the DL and if Raji's injury reduces his effectiveness then that means we will need to fill the NT position sooner than later. Point being there are several good players signed for this season, but beyond this season it's a big mystery. I'm not sure how comfortable Ted will be with that kind of looming question. We've seen him shore up potential weaknesses a year early than a year late (taking Cobb in 2011 with Jennings/Driver deals up next year came to mind).

Well obviously having 5 pro bowlers is better.....but does bringing in more bodies at DL really improve this group?  If you draft a guy in the first or second, it means you are cutting another guy while ignoring performance (b/c high draft picks are guaranteed roster spots).  So that means you're likely cutting Boyd, Pennel or Thornton (assuming Daniels, Jones, Guion and Raji are near locks and they keep 7 guys).  Do you give up on one of these youngsters and roll the dice with a first/second round pick?  Not saying it's out of the question, I just don't know if drafting a guy in the first really improves the short term and long term fortunes of this group b/c it means you're giving up on another youngster.  

 

I do agree that the DL has to improve and I'm not against drafting more players there if there's a guy there TT deems to be the best.  But unlike CB or ILB, they have a lot of bodies at DL, young and veteran.  I just don't know if drafting more guys at DL is the key.  Seems like we have young talent at DL and it just needs to be developed.  

if Raji's injury reduces his effectiveness

from what I understand Raji is in the best shape of his life - don't think that's gonna be a problem.

I just think about Gilbert Brown and his biceps tear, it ended his career. Its obviously a different situation because Gil was much older, but there was a noticeable drop off in his strength. Not at all saying that will happen with Raji, but right now we haven't seen him put the pads on and compete so he's still a question mark at this stage. The point is that there are a lot of questions.

It's true you will have to cut someone, but hypothetically if you bring in a rookie first rounder like Eddie Goldman and he is head and shoulders better than Thornton, is it that bad of a deal to dump Thornton? Sure it's a wasted 3rd rounder, but you replaced him with a superior player that is just as young. Of course right now Thornton looks to be at the bottom of the DL pecking order so how much PT was he going to truly get anyway? If your rookie comes in and isn't ready well then he moves to the bottom of the depth chart like Thornton and doesn't get much PT either. Same is true for Pennell. Boyd has been in the system for 3 years now so if a rookie can come in and outplay him is it really a bad thing he is replaced? It's a hard choice, I'm glad I'm not the GM.

So many variables in play with drafting that it is difficult to say what we will do with first pick. I could see a senerio where the 3rd best d-lineman is available and TT views him as a potential "difference-maker" whereas the best ILBer is there, but not viewed to be at the same level.

 

I think the question of Jones living up to draft status is ill placed.  The guy is a late first rounder, not Hawk material.  I think his evolution is going be largely unheralded and I highly doubt we will see gawdy numbers.  His maturation is more about consistency.  Given he's somewhat of a "specialist" on the Dline in regards to his strengths, I think he's getting there.  I think a lot of guys are going to benefit from Raji playing a true one gap NT.  

 

I don't see any of these guys as superstars.  The challenge is competent cohesion and building off each other's talents.  OLBs are still the playmakers here, especially with the packages we've seen last year.  I'm looking for the Dline to help flush the pocket but I doubt the numbers will be there.

Agreed.

But it does happen and offenses work very hard to get the match-ups they want too

 

When Datone is lined up at 3-tech, he's a beast. But opponents then put the TE in motion and switch strong side to weak side - this forces the DL to shift too. Datone or Guion goes from playing their preferred 3-tech to sliding over and playing 1-tech. Daniels/Raji are  fireplugs and they can handle the 1-tech double teams, but Guion and Jones can't.

 

Look at where a 3-tech lines up - on the outside shoulder of the guard

That makes it really hard for the Center to get over there to double team him and it leaves Guion/Jones alone on a guard - they'll win that match-up way more often than not.

 

But the offenses knows this so they use some cat & mouse to try and beat it

 

The diagram below is a 4-3 OVER defense and it closely resembles how GB lines up in their 2-4-5 nickel

 

In this picture, Datone/Guion is the T and Daniels/Raji is the N. The N guys can handle the double teams. So what offenses do to beat this alignment is they move their TE which switches strong/weak side of the offensive formation. (The Y = TE for the offense)

 

When they make that switch, the DL adjusts by sliding over. You'll see this on game day when the DL quickly shifts left or right or the LB taps them on the ass and they slide over just before the snap. There isn't enough time for the N and the T to stand up, trade spots and get back down into their stance before the ball is snapped. So they just slide over and trade roles.  The 1-tech becomes the 3-tech and the 3 becomes the 1

 

Now, the offense has the advantage again and Datone/Guion is sitting in the 1-gap between the guard and center and easily gets double -teamed.

IF the Packers have talented ILBs they will flow and make the play. But we had slow guys with crappy instincts and they'd get blown out by the double-teamed DL.

Fix the ILBs and then teams are reluctant to invest 2 blockers on one DL.

 

We saw this when Matthews played ILB - if they double Datone/Guion, it leaves Clay free and he'll eff you up 9 different ways. Fix the ILB issues and we'll see a difference in the run defense

 

I'll also say this: In the Capers 3-4, the playmakers are supposed to be the LBs, not the DL

So if you're expecting these 3-4 DL guys to look like Reggie White and be game- changers, you'll be disappointed. That's not their job, as noted by GraveDigger.

 

The Packers used to have Jolly/Raji/Pickett and those beasts could absorb the double-teams - but they offered zero pass rush. So teams just passed vs the base defense knowing those guys couldn't touch them.

Now the Packers went with more athletic penetrating DL, but some of them get beat on double teams in the run game. Finding DL who can do it all is the holy grail, but in a pass-happy world, the Packers are willing to sacrifice some run stuffing skills for pass rush.

And if they had decent ILBs, it wouldn't be such an issue

 

Finally, I don't know any of this stuff, I picked it up cruising around the internet and much of this specific info comes via a guy named AlexGreen20. I've learned a bunch from his tutorials over the years. Happy to share what I've learned , but I deserve zero credit for the insight in this post.

 

I'm just another dork unleashed on a message board ( jadumb)

 

 

Go Packers

 

quote:

I've seen about a dozen players mocked to the Packers which fits the idea that there are probably 30 players in that second tier.

It also fits the idea that the draft "gurus" have no clue what they're doing.

Depends on what you consider a draft guru.  I don't assign much value in guessing what team will pick who.  The good guys worth listening to or reading just give player break downs and projections for their game to the NFL.  A lot of them are nailing cream pies to a fence too, but some of them, usually scouts or former scouts, know what they are talking about.

Good point.

I tend to think the mock drafts are almost pointless, especially when the people making them predict trades.  One probably should separate mock drafts from scouting.

Mocks are a fun thought exercise and more interestng to read than just grouped tiers of players.

The mock is interesting because it assesses the value of players, but it also gives you an evaluation of the team.  Seeing a lot of early mock drafts where people were predicting DT picks for the Packers over ILB.  Interesting to see what people think about a team as well as the projection of players.