Roster Projection

Figured I'd give this a shot on the eve of our first pre-season game -- having only read about what a lot of these guys look like, but not having seen yet with my own eyes. That'll change starting tonight. But in the meantime, a first cut. Welcome, as always, your take. Overall, I think on paper it's a roster that makes us legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Let's just pray for staying relatively healthy to help this team realize its potential. Thanks.

OFFENSE (25)

QB (2): Rodgers (33), Hundley
Practice Squad (PS): Callahan
Cut: Hill
Comments: Very excited to see what Hundley looks like this pre-season, as we were robbed of that last year. Callahan was a pleasant surprise last year, expect him to be even better. Hill, a college free agent, seems to have incredible athletic ability. But an unknown as a QB. Can he show enough to beat out Callahan for a spot on the Practice Squad? That's one to watch.

HB (3): Montgomery, Williams (4B), Jones (5B)
PS: Mays (7A)
Cut: Phillips, Stanback
Comments: Can't wait to see Montgomery after an off-season of bulking up (and he was pretty bulked up already) and training exclusively at RB. Have read Williams already competing to be a co-starter. Can't really distinguish yet between draft choices Jones, Mays and college free agents Phillips and Stanback, so for now will just go with the higher draft picks in the pecking order. Still think Thompson though was in error letting Eddie Lacy go. Would have loved the trio of him, Montgomery and Williams. Maybe he was right. We'll see.

FB (1): Ripkowski
PS: Kerridge
Comments: Seems like Kerridge has been tearing it up, both at FB and on Special Teams. But don't see room on the 53 for two FBs, so keep him around on Practice Squad.

WR (7): Nelson (32), Cobb, Adams, Davis, Janis, Dupre (7B), Yancey (5A)
Suspended: Allison
PS: Clark
Cut: McCaffrey, Crockett, Pearson
Comments: If Jordy is indeed healthier another year removed from his ACL tear, Cobb is finally 100% healthy and Adams continues his improvement, this will be a deadly trio. Davis they say is a bit bigger and stronger than last year, offers great speed at WR and a potentially dangerous return guy. Janis seems to be producing more lately in camp at WR, still valued for his ST abilities. Dupre, drafted in 7th round, appears to be ahead of Yancey, drafted two rounds earlier. That could easily change soon, TBD. With Alluson suspended for the first game, I'm guessing both Dupre and Yancey make the initial, then upon Allison's return one goes to the PS -- bumping Clark, who is a giant and want to keep around to develop, but at this point don't see room for, even on the PS.

TE (3): Bennett (30), Kendricks, Rodgers
Cut: Sandland, Peck, Byrd
Comments: Should be best TE group since heyday of Keith Jackson and Mark Chmura in the mid-90s. Cannot wait to see both Bennett and Kendricks in this offense, complemented by our WRs and Montgomery out of the backfield. Could truly be our best offense with Rodgers. And TE Rodgers they say is looking better than ever, making a great #3.

OL (9): OT's Bakhitari, Bulaga, Spriggs, Murphy, G's Taylor, J. Evans (33), Patrick, C's Linsley, Barclay
PS: G/C Amichia (6), G Gray
Cut: G's McCray, Pankey, T. Evans, OT Leff
Comments: Evans key as Lang replacement, and so far, all looks good there. Barclay not a fan favorite, but may be a pretty good backup C. Hopefully Spriggs is stronger in his second year. Murphy still being used at both OT and G. Patrick seems to be liked by the coaches. Amichia offers very good athletic ability, but at this points looks targeted for the PS, as does Gray, the Canadian import.

DEFENSE (25)

DL (6): Daniels, Clark, Lowry, Jean-Francois (30), Adams (3), Price
Cut: Ringo, Lunsford, Fanene
Comments: Looking for big jumps from both Clark and Lowry. So far, more evident from Lowry in camp. Jean-Francois effectively replaces Guion as a quality veteran in the rotation. Loved reading how multiple vets raved about rookie Adams. Too bad he broke his foot, out until at least early regular season. Can't put him on PUP, guessing they won't put him on IR. If right, that necessitates keeping Price on the 53 to start the season. Ringo has potential to make Packers keep him around, but think he must stand out in these pre-season games.

LB (8): OLB's Matthews (31), Perry, Elliott, Fackrell, Biegel (4A), ILBs Thomas, Ryan, Martinez
PS: OLB Calvin
Cut: OLB's Gilbert, Letuligasenua, ILB's Tripp, Heiman, Mathews, Talley
Comments: Biggest current concern on the roster -- our pass rush -- due to the fragility of our starters, Matthews and Perry, and potential lack of depth, waiting for Elliott to emerge, Fackrell's underwhelming camp so far, and Biegel still injured. Optimistic view is that Matthews and Perry stay healthy all year and prove to be a dynamic duo, Elliott emerges, Fackrell does the same, and Biegel gets healthy soon and offers significant contribution as a rookie. Calvin's made some noise in camp as a college free agent, so keeping him on PS. Tripp's gotten some good press for his Special Teams work, but guessing not enough to stick.

DB (11): CB's House, King (2A), Rollins, Randall, Gunter, Hawkins, S's Clinton-Dix, Burnett, Jones (2B), Brice, Evans
PS: CB Brown
Cut: CB's Pipkins, Pringle, Holmes, Goodson, S's Whitehead, Taylor
Comments: The fact that Gunter was our #1 CB in last year's playoffs and is now at best #5 says a lot about how much better we have the potential to be. Hoping House is what he was when he was last with us and what he was his first year at Jacksonville. If so, tall, fast, quality veteran at one corner. Also hoping our first pick in early 2nd round, 6'3" and fast CB King can start at other corner, but may need a bit more time to get ready. Coaches say Rollins the best CB in camp so far, appears to be starter in the slot. With him and Randall 100% healthy, means Randall offers great luxury depth at both outside spots but especially slot. Hawkins has great speed, would be to our advantage if he moves ahead of Gunter. Gunter just doesn't have the speed needed, but maybe still a very good 6th CB. But college free agent Brown looking good, could beat Gunter out. Safety a strength of the team. We know Burnett and exciting rookie Jones will play a lot of ILB, which hopefully will fix what has been a huge weakness on this defense for years -- defending the pass against TE's, RB's and WR's in the middle of the field. Brice must make that jump in his second year to make this work, and so far seems to be on track -- fast and a great hitter. Evans also has speed, good potential.

SPECIAL TEAMS (3)

PK Crosby (32), P Vogel, LS Hart
Comments: College free agent Vogel looking like a keeper if he can just show a bit more consistency. Long Snapper rookie Hart may be OK, but has to know Packers will not hesitate to replace him -- including bringing back Goode (32).

Original Post

I'm willing to bet you are more right than wrong, sschumer!
The only argument I might give you would be Ringo. It's possible either Adams' injury or Price's PS eligibility factors into that decision. I definitely agree he has an opportunity for the rest of pre-season to show his shi....er, stuff.

I'd like to hear your comments about the defensive backfield; why you picked Brown for PS, and why you picked Goodson to (finally) get cut.
I'm rooting for S Taylor to make it, even to the PS, but he may be the longest of longshots.

Ditto for your WR comments. Do you not see a way for McCaffrey to make it to PS? 

YATITTLE, thanks man!  TIMMY!,  thanks as well and good questions.  I agree on Ringo, but only if he shows a whole lot more than he has and maybe the Packers do put Adams on IR.  That'll be a bummer if they have to do that.  But if they do, then maybe Ringo makes it, Price goes (back) to PS.  I picked CB Brown for PS because Whitt has talked him up a couple of times this off-season, and a Packer beat writer or two has commented how good his play has been.  On Goodson, even before his injury, I just felt he never showed the instincts to play CB.  Considering he's still coming back from a bad injury, don't see any way he makes the team.  WR McCaffrey is interesting.  Seems he's catching everything, has so far outplayed the draft picks.  I think if he shows up well in the pre-season games, he'd be a darkhorse to supplant Janis.

Great effort on the skinny.

I would put Mays ahead of Jones at RB.  Jones is a dynamic athlete and a natural out of the backfield but mays has great burst and great feet for a guy his size.  I don't know why the hot takers haven't compared him to Lacy other than he may not run as physical for his size.

I've heard/read a lot about McCaffrey, he could make #7 if they roster that many.  Lotta PS and TC left.  Clark sounds bound for PS if he keeps showin out.

I haven't done the accounting for final 53 but they could keep Kerridge if you look at the WR+TE+FB+RB group as a total number.  You would have to keep only 6WR's though.  3RB's, 3TE's, 1FB, 7WR or 3RB's, 3TE's, 2FB, 6WR.

 

DH13, thanks.  GRAVE DIGGER, coming from you means a lot!  I agree, have read good things about Tripp as a Special Teamer, but tough to see who to cut to make room for him.  And agree Mays/Jones could go either way at this (early) point.  DH13, agree that to keep Kerridge likely means one less WR.  Don't see it, but maybe his ST contribution better than the 7th WR's.  But also factoring in building WR depth now based on Jordy's age, question if we lose Cobb or Adams next year.

DH13 posted:

 

I haven't done the accounting for final 53 but they could keep Kerridge if you look at the WR+TE+FB+RB group as a total number.  You would have to keep only 6WR's though.  3RB's, 3TE's, 1FB, 7WR or 3RB's, 3TE's, 2FB, 6WR.  

I thought about that, too, DH, but took the lazy wait out...
Just looking at sschumer's projected cuts at WR and TE, I didn't really see anyone that could fill a FB/ H-back/TE role, not even Kerridge. If he's relatively safe on the PS, I'm good with that.

Timmy! posted:
ChilliJon posted:

Really good work here Hall of Famer.  

I'm diggin' the moniker!
A potential screen name change, sschumer?
At least modify the description to the right of your name. "Packers Fan Hall Of Fame Member". 

Seconded!

Make it so Admins!

ChilliJon posted:

Really good work here Hall of Famer. I could go either way on Kerridge and MCCaffrey. I am leaning in the direction of Kerridge finding a way to make the 53. I think you're pretty close to how the roster lands in a few weeks though. 

It might come down to STs with these backup positions. Kerridge would likely make all the coverage teams, McCaffrey could contribute as a returner. 

I have a hard time with Yancey. I want to like him because of his physical traits, but nothing jumped out from what I saw in camp. It was the same kind of inauspicious start to camp that Davis had last year. Even Dupre had a couple nice plays, Yancey just didn't do much. Not writing him off, it's one of those issues of potential vs. contributing soon. Yancey won't contribute soon, whereas McCaffrey or Kerridge would on STs, but Yancey could contribute more in the long run.

Kerrigan? Joe Kerridge likely sticks as a core special teamer. He and Ripkowski may also be their jumbo backfield. 

I don't see seven wideouts kept with Bennett, Kendricks, Montgomery and maybe one of the rookie backs. Their "5-wide" could be Jordy, Adams, Cobb, Bennett and Kendricks or a back splitting out with a combo of four. Janis, the rookies and Davis had better be knockouts on special teams because that's where most of those guys will make the team.

Defense is also a tough prediction. If they truly want to run the "Nitro" package as a base, I could maybe see one of the ILBs cut. Randall, Brice and Jones may be competing for a starting spot with Burnett taking whichever spot not claimed by the youngster.

Tripp and Goodson are in the Janis/Davis boat with a much smaller paddle.

Read this in the opening paragraph...

"Evans continues to close the gap on Kentrell Brice, who is currently starting in the Nitro package. The Milwaukee native did a number of positive things on Thursday, but nothing was more eye-opening than his interception. As impressive as the catch was, what was even more impressive was how quickly he got to the ball. It was a play I’m not sure Ha Ha Clinton-Dix would’ve made"

Quietly closed the page. Didn't even read the comment section either. Which really give JS Comments a serious run for funniest reads. 

I think that it all comes down to if Nelson is really retiring at the end of the year - per a rumor.  If that is the case, keeping 7 WRs (including Nelson), and 2 on the PS is not out of the question.  The WR position takes has it's share of injuries besides.  Not only because of the increased opportunities, but also because in the catch process the receiver is at a disadvantage in protecting their bodies from the defender.  IMO good spare parts are a requirement at the position.  The Texans WR group is in shambles right now.  Our Packers had a tough time with injuries at the position in 2015.  So if TT agrees (and he may not), I see the roster being something like this in terms of numbers per position; 3 QBs, 5 FB-RBs, 3 TEs, 7 WRs, 8 OL, 5 DL, 8 LBs, 6 CBs, 5 Ss, 3 ST.  26 on offense & 24 on defense & 3 special team players.  I have details and rationale for it all, but I recognize that what happens at the bottom of a roster may be viewed differently by many of us.  No matter what, we are going to have to let some good players go.  

A lot to still see before the final cut but WR will be interesting.  If all stay relatively healthy through the preseason, I wonder if any team would offer something in a trade like a 7th?   Maybe not since they know we'll have to cut a few or try to stash them on the P.S.   Don't see us keeping 8 WR's.   

http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/c...d-keep-eight-wrs-139

Yeah WR should be interesting. I think the top 4 of Nelson, Adams, Cobb, Allison are basically locked in. The way he was moving and catching in camp I can't see Allison as anything but a lock. You would expect that they will give at least Yancey time to develop since they spent a 5th on him, even if he shows very little (as they did with Davis last year). So you have Janis, Dupre, Clark, McCaffrey, and Davis fighting over that last spot. Davis is the highest draft pick of the bunch and had that nice PR TD, he could lock up that 6th spot if he stays on a role returning punts/kicks. I would guess Janis will be kept while Allison is on suspension and they will try to sneak Clark and McCaffrey on to the PS. One or two of these guys like Dupre I'm sure they will stash on IR. 

Grave Digger posted:

Yancey may be one they stash on IR and keep McCaffrey. Yancey seems like a guy who needs a redshirt.

Yes - lets not forget about the talent holding bin known as IR.  Maybe Dupre could be stashed there with CCS.  Now if one more could come down with a hang nail or something serious like that, between the roster and PS we could keep them all.  

PACKY - I don't see GB keeping 8 on the roster either.  The article presents more of a case for cutting 4 of them than keeping them.  Who would want a receiver who couldn't run routes?  Huh?  But if the information at the end of the article is correct about Adams & Cobb, and the rumor for Nelson turns out to be true, then the Packers will find ways to cubby hole most of them.  JMO.  

Something to keep in mind regarding stashing guys on the PS. The NFL did away with the "reduce roster to 75 players" rule following the 3rd preasason game. Teams will go from 90 to 53 following their final preseason game. So 1,184 players are going to hit the market at the same time. That might make it easier to hide guys. 

Also, you can now designate two players to return from the IR list. So there are options to hide guys for a bit if needed. 

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