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"Against a man-based defense, that’s an invitation for green-dog blitzes, something inside backers Brad Jones and especially A.J. Hawk have become very good at."

 

 

BOTTOM LINE

There’s not a deeper, more talented all-around team in the NFC. If the Packers can earn home field advantage (i.e. avoid traveling to Seattle), they’ll reach the Super Bowl.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Even without HFA.

Speaking of deep rosters, here's McGinn's take on the newly remodeled Mike Neal

 

"Even weighing in the low 260s, Neal now appears to figure prominently playing with his hand down at defensive tackle in the nickel and dime defenses."

 

"Obviously, when you lose weight you lose a little bit of power," guard Josh Sitton said. "You don't have to worry too much about bull rush with him being that light, although he's still got good power because he's long.

"His biggest asset is how he gets off the ball.

His get-off is pretty much lightning right now."

 

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports...229z1-271950911.html

Originally Posted by Boris:
Still under the radar. Seattle & Denver & SF & New England are the teams to beat until ESPN says different.

 

Yup.. Not even considered in that class.  After we whoop Seattle to open the season, that will change.

 

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

The only time I worry about the 49ers is when they have the momentum. Kaeperdick lives and dies by the momentum swing. He's hard to stop when he's feeling confident because he's a good runner and can hit a WR when he's wide open. When the momentum is gone though he seems to frustrate easily and will lose them the game. If the OLBs can stay disciplined enough to not lot him get outside and if the Safeties can not allow the easy intermediate routes in the middle of the field then San Fran is very beatable. Rodgers can move the ball on that D, he's proven it every time. It's just our D staying disciplined and not letting Kaeperdick do what he wants to do. 

 

Seattle is a better team than San Fran. They just bludgeon you with brute force until you're too battered to stay disciplined. That's when you find out how tough your team actually is. To beat Seattle it's all about the running game. Run the ball effectively on them and stop Lynch from running wild and all of the things that make that team so difficult to stop go away. Everything they do on offense is set up by Lynch, it's why Senneca Wilson transitioned so well from Wisconsin to Seattle...he's most effective when he has a running game setting everything up. The D cheats up, play action moves the Safetys, etc. When the D can shut down Lynch with 6 or 7 in the box then he is much less effective, fortunately for them Lynch doesn't get shut down often. And it's the same concept for their D...their D is built to stop the pass and that's what they're good at. Run the ball effectively on them and they start getting away from what they like to do and do well. 

The niners beat us last year by a FG with half our team on IR. You're worried about them? The Niners have played nearly flawless ball the last 4 times we met. Micah Hyde INT's that pass & we're having a completely different conversation. They're not scary at all. They're scared of the Packers.

Seattle is a different beast. The niners have no clue how to beat them. We're going to give the entire league the blueprint on Sept. 4th. & GD is right. It all starts with the running game.

So..... a question for our resident football gurus regarding the change in the Packers' defensive line.  Does going to a smaller faster line up front hurt the Packers with teams like Seattle, because they will wear down more at the end of games?  Or does the lighter, faster style help with penetration and their conditioning helps them last longer (hopefully aided by Rodgers and the offense having leads later in games)? 

Keeping the D off the field because our O is playing smash-mouth with a lead late in the game means it doesn't matter if we are lighter on the Dline. And I think you'll see more rotating this year on the Dline with Boyd, Neal, Jones, Pepper, et al., which should keep them fresher.

Originally Posted by Boris:
The niners beat us last year by a FG with half our team on IR. You're worried about them? The Niners have played nearly flawless ball the last 4 times we met. Micah Hyde INT's that pass & we're having a completely different conversation. They're not scary at all. They're scared of the Packers.

Seattle is a different beast. The niners have no clue how to beat them. We're going to give the entire league the blueprint on Sept. 4th. & GD is right. It all starts with the running game.

 

Packers had 26 and 1/2 players on IR?

 

Niners have played pretty damn good against all teams not just the Pack.

 

Since 2010 the Niners are 5 and 4 against the Hawks.

 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by Fandame:

Keeping the D off the field because our O is playing smash-mouth with a lead late in the game means it doesn't matter if we are lighter on the Dline. And I think you'll see more rotating this year on the Dline with Boyd, Neal, Jones, Pepper Pennel, et al., which should keep them fresher.

ftfy

Seattle is a zone running team although I think Marshawn Lynch is functional as both a power and zone runner. Their OLine isn't a big hulking OLine, I think Russell Okung was their biggest OL at 310 lbs. last year. I noticed on their depth chart that their new rookie RT is listed at 325 lbs though. Other than that they have JR Sweezy is under 300 and Max Unger who is probably maxed out at 300 lbs. and their new LG is listed at 300. They're not a big line, but they execute the ZBS well and Lynch has good vision. Lynch is a pounder though and he can wear a defense down. 

 

 

Originally Posted by Dr._Bob:

So..... a question for our resident football gurus regarding the change in the Packers' defensive line.  Does going to a smaller faster line up front hurt the Packers with teams like Seattle, because they will wear down more at the end of games?  Or does the lighter, faster style help with penetration and their conditioning helps them last longer (hopefully aided by Rodgers and the offense having leads later in games)? 


Both schemes work if you have the players to handle it. The question is, does Dom have the horses to pull it off? We shall see.

And you need enough of those horses to keep them fresh; once they go over the "tired" threshold, they will not recover that afternoon no matter how much you rest them. Seattle came at teams with wave upon wave of smaller DL and a few big ones, so we know it can work.

Perhaps the most telling situation will be the goal line defense.  When the offense is stacked to pound the ball across the goal line, can the Packers D stop them?  I suppose it's the eternal debate with any combat.... strength versus quickness.  But as I understand it, the purpose of moving to the hybrid style defense is to try to handle both approaches effectively.  Win, lose, or draw, I can't wait for the regular season to start! 

IMHO, what will make the difference for our defense this year is how well they defend 3rd down situations. The Packers haven't been atrocious, statistically speaking, but they need to keep it < 30%, especially on 3rd and long situations.

GB has been pretty consistent in 3rd down conversion rates on D, right around 38% (2010 was 36%). The outlier was 2011 at 42% conversion rate. 

 

If a D is a few points south of 40 in 2014 given the new coverage rules it's doing a number of things well. 

Originally Posted by Pikes Peak:
Since 2010 the Niners are 5 and 4 against the Hawks.

....and 1-2 in 2013 with 1 of those losses happening when it mattered most.

 

Their window has opened & shut. They'll be in the mix this year but it would not shock me to see them be one & done IF they make the playoffs. They had their shot the last 3 years. They ain't getting to the conf. final game again this year

 

The Rams & Cardinals especially do not suck this year. They're in trouble & they're due for some injuries.

 

Seattle is the team to beat in that division not SF.

49ers had a window when they were paying most of their all-pro players less than market value (Kaepernick, Smith, Bowman, their 0-line).  They also had a couple years where they had almost no injuries to speak of.  That's all caught up to them now.  Seahawks were in a similar position with guys like Sherman, Wilson, Chancellor, Wagner, and Thomas.  That's all changing, only they won a Super Bowl in their window.  But as soon as that team plays for market deals (Wilson especially), they'll have a hard time keeping that team together.  

 

Seems like the new model now is to win with a young QB before he hits the jackpot with a $20m contract.  Flacco, now Wilson.  Guess we'll see what happens this year.  

I know Denver got hammered in the Super Bowl last year, but had they won, they would've won with the oldest horse in the stable.

 

Bottom line....You need a top flight QB to win in this league now or you can get by with above average if you have a top flight defense & top flight running game to take the pressure off the QB.

 

A top 5 QB can & will mask any deficiencies you have at other positions on your team, however, balance on the offense is lethal especially if you have an avg or above average defense.

 

Nothing stops this train....Nothing.....The Methylamine keeps flowing

Last edited by Boris

Seattle is the best team in the NFC until proven otherwise. They are still loaded on D and their starters looked really good against San Diego last weekend. Lynch didn't play and neither did two of their starting LB's. 

 

There's something about the 49'ers so far this preseason that makes you think the wheels could come off the wagon any time. Maybe it was the Kaep investigation and contract negotiation, or the Harbaugh failed contract discussions, there is the pending suspension for Aldon Smith hanging around, Alex Boone isn't at camp and wants a new contract or a trade, Vernon Davis is at camp but also wants a new deal becasue he needs to build his brand. 

 

I'm also of the opinion that SF hasn't fully recovered from losing to Baltimore two years ago. And they may never recover. History isn't kind to teams favored to win a SB then fail to close the deal. Teams may stick around and be relevant for a while but I can't think of a team favored to win, lose, and then make another appearance a short time later. 

Not putting too much stock into the pre-season. Something about the 49'ers looks off. Seattle looks like the class of the NFC right now. My opinion is the NFC is coming down to GB and Seattle. I think both games will be outstanding football. 

Originally Posted by Dr._Bob:

Perhaps the most telling situation will be the goal line defense. 

Then you come in with the heavies like Raji, Boyd, Thornton, Guion

depending on who is active on game day.

Everybody predicts Seattle to get to the SB again,thats how great they are it seems and well deserved after last season but will that attiude remain the same after the Packers beat them at their own noisy stadium the first game of the year on National television.when the Packers beat them(perhaps handily) eyes will open wide nationwide.

 

Originally Posted by ChilliJon:

Not putting too much stock into the pre-season. Something about the 49'ers looks off. Seattle looks like the class of the NFC right now. My opinion is the NFC is coming down to GB and Seattle. I think both games will be outstanding football. 

And the Saints.  We haven't played them in awhile so tend to dismiss them but they have a top 3 QB, top 5 coach, and a defense that improved drastically last year.  

Grave Digger:

The only time I worry about the 49ers is when they have the momentum. Kaeperdick lives and dies by the momentum swing.

Hmmmm.  I don't see this.

 

Last year, playoffs at Green Bay.  Packers score a TD with 12m 6s left in the 4th to take the lead 17-13.  That would seem a momentum swing, no?  So what does Kaepernick do?  He engineers a TD drive that took 1m 35s and the TD was a 28 yard pass to Vernon Davis.

 

Packers get a FG with 5m 6s to tie the game at 20-20 with 5m 6s left and what does K do?  He engineers a game winning drive (33 yard FG as time runs out).

 

 

SF at Seattle.  With Seattle up 23-17, Kaepernick takes SF down the field.  True, the drive failed due to a great Sherman play.  After the game Kaepernick said he would have thrown the same pass, it needed to be just a little higher, and great play by Sherman.

 

My impression is he usually comes up big - at least against the Packers, anyway.

Last edited by phaedrus

Here's a comment from Peppers talking about stopping the run vs the Raiders this weekend:

 

The Raiders should provide a better assessment, bringing two proven producers at running back in Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden.

 

"This is the test. This is the test we've talked about in meetings," outside linebacker Julius Peppers said. "These guys are going to run the ball. It will tell us where we're at as far as stopping the run. We're excited to see where we're at ourselves."

 

 

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