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Green Bay Packers
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 70.7%
Achilles' heel: Wide receiver
You've probably heard about this one before! The Packers have a great one-two punch at running back with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is coming off consecutive MVP seasons, but let's look at their receivers:
Nominal No. 1 receiver Allen Lazard averaged 1.25 yards per route run and commanded targets on only 15.1% of his routes a year ago. Unsurprisingly, he has been more productive without Davante Adams on the field, averaging 2.44 yards per route run without Adams in the lineup over the past three seasons, but that's on a total of just 169 routes, which isn't a particularly large sample. Lazard already has built-in chemistry with Rodgers, but is that enough to make him a true top-tier receiver?
Sammy Watkins averaged a career-low 30.3 receiving yards per game with the Ravens a year ago. The oft-injured wideout sat out four games, bringing the 2014 first-rounder to 30 games missed over the past seven seasons. He also dropped five of his 48 targets, contributing to a subpar catch rate of 55.1%. Watkins already is dealing with a hamstring injury.
Longtime Green Bay standout Randall Cobb returned to the team at Rodgers' behest last offseason. The veteran slot receiver is a reliable pair of hands and turned 21 of his 28 catches into first downs, but the Packers used him for just under 20 routes per contest a year ago. He was targeted a mere four times on passes 20 or more yards downfield, and three of those attempts were by backup Jordan Love. Cobb is mostly going to be an option on screens and slants.
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How does Rodgers' hype of Romeo Doubs impact the WR's draft ranking?The Fantasy Focus cast discuss why Aaron Rodgers' hype of rookie Romeo Doubs should put the WR on your drafting radar.
Amari Rodgers, a third-round pick last season, ran 40 routes all season, catching four passes for 45 yards. He primarily served as a kick and punt returner. Reports out of Packers camp suggested he showed up in better shape than he had as a rookie, which could lead him to push Cobb for snaps in the slot.
Rookie second-round pick Christian Watson started camp on the PUP list after undergoing knee surgery this summer. The Packers traded up to grab Watson with the No. 34 pick, suggesting they see the 23-year-old as a first-round talent, but he already was expected to need some time to adjust to stiffer competition after playing at FCS school North Dakota State. Even Jerry Rice needed most of his first season in 1985 to adjust after playing for Mississippi Valley State before breaking out with a 241-yard game in December. Watson might turn out to be the next great Packers receiver, but it would be a surprise if he is an instant star.
The guy getting the most hype at Packers camp right now is fellow rookie Romeo Doubs, who was drafted in the fourth round. Aaron Rodgers hasn't exactly been shy about praising Doubs, comparing his big plays in camp to players who ended up as career receiving leaders for Green Bay.
Doubs might turn out to be a steal, but the odds are against any fourth-rounder making an immediate impact. Ninety wide receivers have been drafted in the fourth round since 2000, and not a single one has managed to top 1,000 yards in their rookie season. Just four drafted in the fourth round over that timeframe have topped 1,000 yards in any of their pro campaigns: Jerricho Cotchery, Brian Hartline, Brandon Lloyd and Brandon Marshall, with the latter pulling off the feat eight times.
The odds are against Doubs, but if there was ever an opportunity for a player to come out of nowhere and do something spectacular, it would be in a situation just like this one. Somebody will break out for the Packers. It could be Doubs or Lazard or maybe tight end Robert Tonyan, who returns after missing most of the 2021 season with a torn left ACL. Maybe they add Odell Beckham Jr. as the season goes along. We know Rodgers will be able to hold up his end of the bargain. Now it's on one or more of the Green Bay receivers to emerge.