you don't get Kuhn saying there's a 75% chance just because of contract negotiation.
Actually, you can.
First off, 75% is a big number. You Get Kuhn saying it because he sees and understands the business aspect of this. You get Kuhn saying 75% because he understands what AR wants with respect to commitment, and knows that without the commitment Rodgers could force their hand. Kuhn knows how competitive Rodgers is and how he is sensitive and can hold a grudge like no other. 75% from Kuhn, with him knowing what he does, is about as high as you can get from someone not named Aaron Rodgers.