AtTheMurph posted:PackerHawk posted:That's not how the QB formula works in the NFL. If you are a clear starting QB in the NFL (and Cousins is) you are going to get a record or near record contract just by being the newest contract. His next deal will easily be $35 million per year unless he has some big injury or just has a terrible 2020. He will play well enough to make the Vikings or some other team pony up the cash and regret it later.Pay attention to the deal Dak Prescott gets from the Cowboys - unless they just franchise him. That's the starting price for Kirkland.
There isn't a chance in hell Cousins gets 35M/yr. MN can't afford that and no other team is dumb enough to pay him those sorts of dollars.
Dak isn't getting that either. This season should have proved something to Dallas. He isn't the guy. He can win some games but he cannot win enough games. If Dallas fires the coach then the guy you get isn't going to want to be saddled with a QB he doesn't know or Prescott that he does know. That limits the coaches who might take the job.
There will be plenty of teams looking for a QB this off season, I think as many as 14 would like to draft a starting QB and you might have quite a few QBs with starter experience on the market: Newton, Trubiskey, Prescott, Rivers, Brady, Brees, Winston, Flacco.... Most will be old, banged up and not good enough to win a title.
Most teams in the quandary will default to paying the evil that they know rather than the unknown. Prescott will probably stay in Dal, Trubiskey in Chicago, Newton in Car, etc.
Then you are going to have teams draft their guys. Cincy is taking Burrow. He's a S. Ohio kid and I predict will be the next Andy Dalton! Tua will still go early. Herbert the kid in OK and maybe one or two more. None are great prospects IMO but they haven't proven that they are not the guy. That's what you have with these vets who will be available.
You cannot pay a QB who is not a difference maker, difference maker money. The rest of the roster suffers too much and you cannot win. See MN, OAK, DET, CAR, NYG, ATL.
MN is finding that out this off season. They have only 37 players signed through next season and will already be $2m over the cap. They are almost being forced to extend Cousins and redo his contract to gain cap space. (lol) They don't have the draft ammo to move up into the top 10 unless they mortgage the future in some crazy stupid, bears Trubiskey type trade. (and look how that's turning out)
There are maybe 4 QB locks in the first and you have Cincy, Mia, LAC, CAR, and even Det in the top 10 in the draft order. All could take a QB and I'd bet at least three do. Then you have the middling teams that might move up. Den, Chi (if they had any draft picks left), Colts...
You got to take your chances on a young drafted kid rather than some retread. Cousins might force 30M out of MN in an extension but with the cap going up that's a mid tier QB contract. And I wouldn't give him that.
Carson Wentz
Matt Ryan
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garappalo
Matt Stafford
Derek Carr
Look them up. All making $25+ million a year. What do they have in common? They haven't won shit. Yeah, OK Matt Ryan got to a Super Bowl and they had a lead for most of the game. The only guys in this group I'd consider for a huge deal is Garappalo and Wentz and that's just because I'm not 100% sure they are not winners.
I agree that Minnesota "shouldn't" give Cousins $35 million a year but they will or some other team will if he plays in 2020 like he did in 2019. That's the way the NFL works. Teams are that desperate to have that missing piece they think they are missing.
Dak is getting paid, too. Either by the Cowboys with a big contract or franchise tag or some other team will. I don't know if it will be $30 million plus but I won't blink an eye if it is. He's young and coming off a near 5000 yard season. I don't think he's worth it but that won't mean shit in the end.