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Henry posted:

I don't think you're wrong about Rodgers having issues but let's look at the team as a whole.  We talk about Rodgers singlehandedly racking up wins in the past but we can't give the consideration that he's not Superman anymore and maybe just Batman?  Think about that.  Winning games on his own.  Nobody would've disputed that claim.  Now he shows some age playing on a team that has no identity after a whole culture shift and we're going to hang the guy out to dry because he can't put the whole damn team on his shoulders? 

Yeah, someone should probably send Rodgers the memo too.  It may actually be dawning on him as he's watching Jones run like a damn madman.  My point is this, how could you not give the benefit of the doubt to a QB who at his worst is above average?  If he looks like a stiff in year two with offensive additions I'll be right there with you. 

See!  Substantive debate not trolling your own team.

He deserves benefit of doubt, at least as much as we'd give other guys on the roster, if not more. And call it spoiled or wvr, but the shadow he casts is the thing that drives a lot of his criticism. We know the guy lives and breathes X's and O's. We know he's top shelf when it comes to the mental side of things. His physicality is diminishing gradually. But the cerebral, mental part of the game doesn't necessarily have to. When you listen to him postgame, he's got photographic memory on the design and result of plays. So while there are a ton of moving parts on a given snap, there's been a shift in how I'm seeing schoolyard scrambling plays now as opposed to 2 or 3 years ago. At his peak, he had proven himself to be expert level improvisor. The past 2 years that component isn't yielding what it once did. Some of it is physical, but part of it is his unwillingness to check down and take positive yards. It isn't Rodgers exclusively, but this year the longer plays last, the more antsy it becomes. In a new system, I'd think such a sharp QB would understand that he needs to use other pieces of his game and utilize each advantage at his disposal. It helps nothing to lay blame solely on him, but that should go for the WRs too. And his O-line. 

How can we explain the revolving door of so many wideouts disappearing this year? We could subscribe to your theory that these guys do all suck. At the moment it looks to me like a combination of them and 12. MVS, Kumerow, Allison and Graham have had substantial periods of being awol. I honestly don't understand where the onus lies re share of blame. The fact that they've gotten to 10 wins in this fashion is hopefully a good thing which can be cleaned up to avoid close games with lesser opponents over time.

So I'm certainly looking forward to the second year of the system, as well as finding new weapons in the passing game. I think my main issue is the window closing slowly but surely now that it's actually visible on the field. If I had to choose between 12 being stubborn(holding out for big plays) vs not seeing the field and scheme like he once did, idk where that answer lies. Learning to utilize all options and find rhythm in the scheme can be accomplished with the latter but not the former. But I do think this conversation is had much easier at 10-3 than it was just 12 months ago.

I can't disagree with any of that.  As far as the offense there have been a shit ton of head scratchers as well.  I'm still trying to figure out what an empty backfield with Jones lining up at WR says about this offense.  There were a couple of series where it felt like they were just throwing shit at the wall.  "Nope, that didn't work.   Let's line up Williams at OG and Jenkins as a wing back."

I don't know what to say about those kind of offensive sets.  I don't know if it's Mayo and Rodgers trying to figure it out or compromise between the two in the passing game but yeah, it's off.  I think that's why I'm much more optimistic about next season.  It's pretty crazy to see this team at 10-3 with such a wonky offense.  Might actually be an indication that Pettine is helping this team win games despite gaudy stats.

I think my biggest point is everyone knows, including the Packers, that it just isn't quite put together yet.  You see the comments in the press bearing that out.  The one constant on this team is Jones and Williams running the ball pretty damn well.  The problem is that's going to dry up in a hurry if they can't find some rhythm in the passing game.  Lining Jones up at WR seemed desperate to me.  Maybe Rodgers is overthinking this, I don't know.  I do agree there is no one scapegoat or hero here.  It is a head scratcher offense right now.

Summary of whole season so far.

 Found this while gif surfing.  Allison or Graham running a route.

 

Last edited by Henry
Henry posted:

I would be excited as hell to see what the offense is like in year 2 with the addition of solid receiving talent.  I think the oline is actually in pretty good shape as long as they add depth.  Sternburger and a high draft pick at WR along with some WR depth?  Yeah, open up your playbook Mayo and shed the last vestiges of McVince's offense. 

I am excited as hell to see what the Packers offense will look like next year.  I guarantee that Gute will attack the issue of the receiver situation as he did with the defense last year.  

For now I will enjoy the hell out of 10-3 because I didn't expect it. Its been a fun ride so far and I find it freaking awesome that this team is doubted and not thought of being that good.  Its awesome rooting for an underdog.

So is it a good thing or bad thing in postgame when we hear both MLF and AR both state how much was left on the field that day? It should be an indication that both guys understand where they wanna get to. But can the argument be made that the offense is just wonky and that's how it will stay until offseason?

There are similarities this year to 2007. I remember as each win piled up thinking they were winning games despite their flaws and limitations. They were beaten down by Dallas in primetime, and exposed at home in a big way by the NYG to end with a thud. Bert drama and a new starter notwithstanding, they took a step back in '08 when they couldn't close in tight games. 

This year they are winning more than their share of games in the balance of the 4th qtr. Unlike '07, we can surmise that Gute will keep trying to find difference makers that don't seem to be present atm. But you do touch on my gripe this year, Henry- rhythm. While playcalling and personnel and opponents' scheme are substantial factors, the one guy with the most ability to find rhythm is 12. And idk why he doesn't push that notion more, whether it's patience in moving the chains, or the faster tempo that keeps D's on their heels. He's responsible each and every week for a wasted timeout call, for years now. That isn't what a QB looking to find rhythm does. I think a hurry up offense might even help the mediocre WR's as well because they would be forced to think on the fly and curtail the 35 second stagnance between plays. The best way to weed out a player at this level is starting with basics. Do you know your assignment? Do you know the route scheme and progression? Do you know the game situation? Help these young guys focus by simplifying their task on a given play. Once you filter those guys out, then look to install a more developed gameplan. I don't see that happening with just 3 plus weeks left, but it's going to be exciting come camp next year.

Need to be happy if not ecstatic with 10-3.

Offense is dumbfounding at times, some series I swear MLF is channeling MM.

Defense is frustrating to see the inability to stop the run, linebackers in coverage and sloppy tackling but compared to recent years at least they are watchable and promising.

The NFL is full of parity and small differences determine games. Packers have been extremely healthy this year, in comparing to some years where they seemed cursed. They benefited from horrible calls against Detroit and faced KC with Mahomes. 
Right now making a run to the SB seems more wishful thinking than reality but stranger things happen, but I will try to enjoy the rest of what is already a successful season.

What about the 3 turnovers that Detroit got & did nothing with? Sure the pack got a call. BFD. The Lie-Downs had numerous opportunity to win that game & choked like they always do.

KC, that same KC team minus Mahomes beat the Vikings. I wish Mahomes played. I think the Packers still win.

They went into Dallas, Chicago, NY, KC & won those games. That is no easy task for ANY NFL team. Let alone one with a rookie HC & brand new offense. 

Glad you're enjoying what is already a successful season. Me too & there is more to come. 

10-3 is fantastic and has far exceeded all expectations but the reality is they just aren’t that good. Hence all the media coverage and even threads here questioning if they are legit. I hope I’m wrong but I highly doubt they win a playoff game and there is a good chance they would be embarrassed by Seattle, NO, and SF.

GratefulPack posted:

Need to be happy if not ecstatic with 10-3.

Offense is dumbfounding at times, some series I swear MLF is channeling MM.

Defense is frustrating to see the inability to stop the run, linebackers in coverage and sloppy tackling but compared to recent years at least they are watchable and promising.

The NFL is full of parity and small differences determine games. Packers have been extremely healthy this year, in comparing to some years where they seemed cursed. They benefited from horrible calls against Detroit and faced KC with Mahomes. 
Right now making a run to the SB seems more wishful thinking than reality but stranger things happen, but I will try to enjoy the rest of what is already a successful season.

One of the great things about the NFL is that you can't write off teams especially if they have one of the best under center ever.  if the Packers can stay healthy I like their chances against anyone.  

As Boris said this team went in to KC (even without Mahomes that is no easy task winning there), Dallas, and Chicago on opening night.  This team has its holes but every NFL team has them.  Enjoy the ride folks and it sure is nice to see such drastic improvement after the last two years.

GratefulPack posted:

Need to be happy if not ecstatic with 10-3.

Offense is dumbfounding at times, some series I swear MLF is channeling MM.

Defense is frustrating to see the inability to stop the run, linebackers in coverage and sloppy tackling but compared to recent years at least they are watchable and promising.

The NFL is full of parity and small differences determine games. Packers have been extremely healthy this year, in comparing to some years where they seemed cursed. They benefited from horrible calls against Detroit and faced KC with Mahomes. 
Right now making a run to the SB seems more wishful thinking than reality but stranger things happen, but I will try to enjoy the rest of what is already a successful season.

I have zero expectations they make it to the Superbowl.  If they get a first round bye, flip of the coin to get to NFCCG.

artis posted:

So is it a good thing or bad thing in postgame when we hear both MLF and AR both state how much was left on the field that day? It should be an indication that both guys understand where they wanna get to. But can the argument be made that the offense is just wonky and that's how it will stay until offseason?

There are similarities this year to 2007. I remember as each win piled up thinking they were winning games despite their flaws and limitations. They were beaten down by Dallas in primetime, and exposed at home in a big way by the NYG to end with a thud. Bert drama and a new starter notwithstanding, they took a step back in '08 when they couldn't close in tight games. 

This year they are winning more than their share of games in the balance of the 4th qtr. Unlike '07, we can surmise that Gute will keep trying to find difference makers that don't seem to be present atm. But you do touch on my gripe this year, Henry- rhythm. While playcalling and personnel and opponents' scheme are substantial factors, the one guy with the most ability to find rhythm is 12. And idk why he doesn't push that notion more, whether it's patience in moving the chains, or the faster tempo that keeps D's on their heels. He's responsible each and every week for a wasted timeout call, for years now. That isn't what a QB looking to find rhythm does. I think a hurry up offense might even help the mediocre WR's as well because they would be forced to think on the fly and curtail the 35 second stagnance between plays. The best way to weed out a player at this level is starting with basics. Do you know your assignment? Do you know the route scheme and progression? Do you know the game situation? Help these young guys focus by simplifying their task on a given play. Once you filter those guys out, then look to install a more developed gameplan. I don't see that happening with just 3 plus weeks left, but it's going to be exciting come camp next year.

1st paragraph:  I think it's a bit of both with the caveat of knowing and doing something or being able to do something about it being the biggest deciding factor of good or bad.

2nd paragraph:  I think the expectations are different here.  I agree about the parallels but Bert wasn't working with a barren wasteland at WR.  The Giants game was classic Bert. 

3rd paragraph:  You can possibly say Rodgers looking for Adams or even Graham would logically be the quickest progression because they are vets who know how to run the routes.  By the time you get to 2nd/3rd in the progression you're looking at guys like Allison, who is fucking horrible.  Then it's sandlot ball.  If you're waiting for your 2nd/3rd option to actually be able to get where they need to be or at least shed a defender it's going to be sandlot all day long.  I think that's why Jones and Williams look good in the pass game.  They are vets in this system and the fact they are releasing from the backfield makes the progression that much quicker.  The "zeroing in" concept basically says Rodgers is playing like a rookie QB who is just staring down Adams (see Hundley) or Graham.  That isn't happening.  There is zero chance Rodgers has somehow reverted to playing rookie ball.  Let's also take into account how a vet QB is scanning the entire field even out of the corner of his eyes.  Just because he looks like locked into Adams doesn't mean he's blind to the other progressions.  Clowns like Fennell can grab one play where Allison actually gets free but where are the multiple clips of WRs being completely covered?  That kind of analysis drives me nuts.  As far as the overall rhythm the problem comes in the form of predictability of plays trying to find that rhythm.  Hitting a couple of dumpers is only going to work so many times.  Again, I think that's why Jones and Williams looked so good in the passing game.  It's also becoming a bit more clear why might Jones have been lined up at WR, he knows the offense and has a shit ton of speed.

Overall, it's a who knows kind of situation.  I think the parallels with 2007 are legitimate but the question is do the Packers continue on that same track into 2020?  If yes, then you've got the whole Bert scenario with no Rodgers waiting in the wings.  That could be a colossal shit show. 

I also think this discussion would be a little different if the Packers were waiting for some higher pick, legit WR options to develop.  You're not only dealing with a new offense but guys that are potentially J'Mon Moore.  I agree with Boris that EQ was doing a nice job before he was hurt.  He was also the guy going over the middle and doing a pretty decent job.  I think when he comes back he adds legit depth at WR. 

13X posted:

10-3 is fantastic and has far exceeded all expectations but the reality is they just aren’t that good. Hence all the media coverage and even threads here questioning if they are legit. I hope I’m wrong but I highly doubt they win a playoff game and there is a good chance they would be embarrassed by Seattle, NO, and SF.

You are what your record says you are. This team seems uglier than it is because they let off the gas in the middle of the game, but they start strong and finish strong. They're also among the best in the league in the redzone on both sides of the ball as well as turnover margin. This team is 10-3 because they're elite when they need to be elite.

Boris posted:
13X posted:

10-3 is fantastic but the reality is they just aren’t that good. 

I guess they should have about 6 of their wins taken away for poor style points. 

We heard this kind of shit leading up to the 2010 playoffs.

The 2010 team got hot in December and rode it all the way to a title. This team hasn’t shown any signs of getting hot and no one in the playoff picture fears them. I hope it changes and they get red hot but I don’t see that happening. 

My view of the Packers is between 13x and those who think they are as good as 10-3 teams.  No way I see them as playing like a 500 team.  Maybe a good 8-5.

Just before the SF game, Boris said there are two elite teams in the league, the Ravens and the Packers.  So Packers > Saints, 49'ers, Patriots.

No.

Regardless, it has been an awesome year and the games are played on the field.  I'll be hoping I am wrong.

Grave Digger posted:

The 2010 team lost 7-3 to a 6-10 Lions team in December and then followed it up with a loss to NE. They won their last 2 and barely snuck into the playoffs.  They were a similarly ugly looking good team. 

Vintage 2010 Rodgers, Jennings, Driver, Jermichael Finley.

Woodson, Williams, Shields, Collins, 2010 Matthews, Bishop.

They might have been ugly looking, but I find it hard to believe similarly so.

Grave Digger posted:

The 2010 team lost 7-3 to a 6-10 Lions team in December and then followed it up with a loss to NE. They won their last 2 and barely snuck into the playoffs.  They were a similarly ugly looking good team. 

Yep, they had a big game around Christmas vs the Giants, squeaked by the Bears and then things started to really take off. Before the Giants game they weren't getting attention from anyone. 

Grave Digger posted:

The 2010 team lost 7-3 to a 6-10 Lions team in December and then followed it up with a loss to NE. They won their last 2 and barely snuck into the playoffs.  They were a similarly ugly looking good team. 

I believe Rodgers was knocked out of the Detroit game and didn’t play at NE correct? That team nearly beat the Patriots with a backup QB. I’m thrilled with the record especially with a rookie HC!  However, Considering  our competition in the playoffs, I am not that optimistic. They just don’t look like a 10-3 team to me and many feel the same 

One big difference, this team is extraordinarily vs the 2010 team. In fact, when you compare this team to the other NFC top contenders, GB is the picture of health at this point vs others. The 9ers just lost their starting C for the year, Dee Ford is out at least for the rest of the regular season, Sherman also has a hamstring that will keep him out multiple weeks, the Seahags just lost Rashaad Penny for the year with an ACL  Then there's the Saints.. 

Latest from the Saints:



That team lost 3 games they definitely should have won given their talent level. The offense had 7 games where it failed to score 21 points, 4 of those games they failed to even score 14. The leading rushers were Brandon Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, John Kuhn, and James Starks. 3 OLBs not named Clay Matthews combined for 7 sacks...all that teams OLBs (including Clay) combined for 35 QB hits, Za'Darius Smith has 29 by himself. The point is the 2010 team wasn't some super group roster of NFL legends and they relied on a lot of average to below average talent to do their job. There was a lot of talent, there's a lot of talent on this squad. The big similarity between the 2019 team and the 2010 team is veteran leadership. This team has legit veteran leadership on both sides of the ball that carried them through some tough times. There are a lot of guys who have just gone through 2 losing season and need to reestablish that winning mindset. Things could easily click in the playoffs. I remember that final drive Vick had at the end of the wildcard game vs. Philly, I knew for sure he was going to go down and score and send us home because that was realistic for that team. Obviously they didn't and the rest is history, but this team has just as many warts and all it takes is a big momentum swing in the playoffs to spur a run. 

Henry posted:

1st paragraph:  I think it's a bit of both with the caveat of knowing and doing something or being able to do something about it being the biggest deciding factor of good or bad.

2nd paragraph:  I think the expectations are different here.  I agree about the parallels but Bert wasn't working with a barren wasteland at WR.  The Giants game was classic Bert. 

3rd paragraph:  You can possibly say Rodgers looking for Adams or even Graham would logically be the quickest progression because they are vets who know how to run the routes.  By the time you get to 2nd/3rd in the progression you're looking at guys like Allison, who is fucking horrible.  Then it's sandlot ball.  If you're waiting for your 2nd/3rd option to actually be able to get where they need to be or at least shed a defender it's going to be sandlot all day long.  I think that's why Jones and Williams look good in the pass game.  They are vets in this system and the fact they are releasing from the backfield makes the progression that much quicker.  The "zeroing in" concept basically says Rodgers is playing like a rookie QB who is just staring down Adams (see Hundley) or Graham.  That isn't happening.  There is zero chance Rodgers has somehow reverted to playing rookie ball.  Let's also take into account how a vet QB is scanning the entire field even out of the corner of his eyes.  Just because he looks like locked into Adams doesn't mean he's blind to the other progressions.  Clowns like Fennell can grab one play where Allison actually gets free but where are the multiple clips of WRs being completely covered?  That kind of analysis drives me nuts.  As far as the overall rhythm the problem comes in the form of predictability of plays trying to find that rhythm.  Hitting a couple of dumpers is only going to work so many times.  Again, I think that's why Jones and Williams looked so good in the passing game.  It's also becoming a bit more clear why might Jones have been lined up at WR, he knows the offense and has a shit ton of speed.

Overall, it's a who knows kind of situation.  I think the parallels with 2007 are legitimate but the question is do the Packers continue on that same track into 2020?  If yes, then you've got the whole Bert scenario with no Rodgers waiting in the wings.  That could be a colossal shit show. 

Very true, Favre had much more to work with. He had his security blanket in Driver and GJ and JJ as young bucks. He did not have as dynamic a duo at rb as Jones and Williams, even though Brandon Jackson was serviceable in the screen game. The wr group was also more of a unit, esp with Nelson joining them the following year.

I wouldn't claim Rodgers has reverted to rookie ball. We both understand his IQ is what really sets him apart. What I'm trying to discern is the brick wall they seemed to hit after Davante came back. While he was out, it was necessity to involve the RB's in the passing game. And as a result, all those chumps we're talking about stepped up in some fashion. So in your estimation, was it the threat of Aaron and Jamaal that made that possible? Or was it the fact that Rodgers knew he had to look their way more often? Or is it a combination of things? We can agree that getting guys like Lazard and Kumerow and GA and Marcedes involved can only be a good thing in the long run, yes? My sticking point is why, after Adams came back, did the offense seemingly go into a funk that resulted in 2 blowouts where the offense was no factor at all. I'd agree they faced teams that dominated them in the trenches, but is that the sole reason, or did Adams presence actually serve to lull the unit as a whole?

Lastly, the one factor we've always counted on to be a difference is Rodgers. I def don't see 2020 playing out like 2008, mainly because of him. In fact, it could be argued the reason they haven't stumbled with a first yr coach is due to the offense doing just enough and the defense overall being marginally improved. Which goes to your point about year 2 and adding viable and consistent threats to go with DA and AJ. I had high hopes for this WR corps coming in, and they show flashes and then disappear. I've watched Randall Cobb play this year and wonder how his presence might open this offense up from a slot position. He was also a guy 12 knew he could trust. I think what they lack is that veteran aspect that Driver was able to provide to get ppl on the same page. This to me will be the biggest challenge MLF faces going into year 2. Can he galvanize the weapons he will have with his aging star qb? He's 10-3 to start his career. Adapting what he's done to make it come together will show if he's worth his salt longterm.

GD,

Man, I see this differently.

It emerged like crazy and what it was at season's end was the best team in the NFL.  I think an example of the team emerging was Sam Shields, given he was an undrafted FA and his quality of play at season's end.

Your stats on hits by the defense surprised me.  Good information there.  But, look at the secondary.  Base defense was 3 corners and 2 safeties.  I venture to guess it had to be the best secondary in the NFL.  In the playoffs, how many pick 6's?

Wasn't the Packer team that lost in the playoffs to the Cardinals the year before (2009?  The talent was there for the offense to be excellent.

Had the Packers not lost Woodson and Shields in the SB in the first half, I think they'd have blown the Steelers away.

I think the 2010 team was pretty much better.

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