Round 1 Pick 26 (From Miami) QB Jordan Love Utah State

I love all the justifications why this is a shit pick...

He's dumb.

He played at a small school.

Dan Marino was no rocket scientist. Neither was Bert. Kark Cuzzins had one of the all-time high wonderlic scores for a QB.

Just in recent memory, QB that came from small schools...Flacco, Roethlisberger, Jimmy G, Josh Allen (jury is still out but he looks promising), Slapperdick...and on the other side, lets look at all the Power 5 QB, hell some of them even won national championships, that did absolute ass in the league.

The bottom line is, NO ONE KNOWS who will be successful and who won't. Pick 30 is a suck spot to be in...Packers had 3 choices...trade up, trade down or sit there and take the highest guy you had left on your board who in all likelihood was probably a 2nd round at best rated guy.

Had the Packers had the chance to take a guy like WR Jefferson, Aiyuk or Reagor and passed, I'd be disappointed. Sorry, I'm not sold enough on Queen as the pick and as it stands, he wouldn't have been there at 30 either. All the top OT were gone, so had they taken Jones from Houston and Cleveland from Boise people probably would have bitched about taking a small school prospect in R1.

In the court of public opinion, you just can't fucking win.

I don't think he's dumb.  He makes bad decisions on the field.  We've seen way too many super athletes go in the shitter because they don't have the mentality to handle the NFL.  It's not unreasonable.

@SteveLuke posted:

Given his two-year drafting record, how could any rational Packer fan possibly entertain any doubts that immediate help is on its way with Gutey having 8 more picks in rounds 2-7?

Is there a J'Mon Moore or MVS like gem in the 4th (oops forgot no 4th rounder anymore) or 5th round that Gutey is waiting to pounce on to improve the WR corps?

How about a 3rd round steal at ILB like Oren Burks to upgrade the deficient talent at ILB?

And with Tramon not re-signed, maybe Gutey devotes another 2nd round pick on a CB as he did with his 2018 2nd round steal Josh Jackson. 

Come on Steve. Packers were in teh Championship game last year. Gute must have made some decisions correctly that helped the Packers get there. Who knows whether they will finish making enough moves to get in the Super Bowl. All I am hearing right now is that teh Bucs are going to be in the Super Bowl because of their offseason. I am willing to bet they won't be that good. For all the complaining, the team was right there last year. And a lot better than anyone here or in the league though they would be. 

@Floridarob posted:

Come on Steve. Packers were in teh Championship game last year. Gute must have made some decisions correctly that helped the Packers get there. Who knows whether they will finish making enough moves to get in the Super Bowl. All I am hearing right now is that teh Bucs are going to be in the Super Bowl because of their offseason. I am willing to bet they won't be that good. For all the complaining, the team was right there last year. And a lot better than anyone here or in the league though they would be. 

Rob, Gutey KILLED free agency in 2019 with the Smith brothers, Amos, and to a lesser extent Turner.

But I was responding to a post about how Pack fans should chill because Gutey is most definitely going to be bringing in some immediate weapons with his remaining (post 1st round picks) to help Rodgers in the short-term.

I ask, given Gutey's draft record, what is this optimism based upon?

Blind faith?

Jenkins in the second looks like a good pick from the 2019 draft and the jury remains very much out on Sternberger.

But outside of those 2, and given the Josh Jackson, Oren Burks, J'Mon Moore, MVS selections, I don't think Gutey's track record is such that it is out of line for Packer fans to be doubting that immediate help is on its way.

@SteveLuke posted:

Given his two-year drafting record, how could any rational Packer fan possibly entertain any doubts that immediate help is on its way with Gutey having 8 more picks in rounds 2-7?

Is there a J'Mon Moore or MVS like gem in the 4th (oops forgot no 4th rounder anymore) or 5th round that Gutey is waiting to pounce on to improve the WR corps?

How about a 3rd round steal at ILB like Oren Burks to upgrade the deficient talent at ILB?

And with Tramon not re-signed, maybe Gutey devotes another 2nd round pick on a CB as he did with his 2018 2nd round steal Josh Jackson. 

The fact that 6 WRs went in the top 25 picks really took a position of need with a lot of potential in this draft off the board at pick 30. In 2019, the top WR didn't get picked until #25. In 2018, the top WR went at #24. In 2017, only two WRs went in Round 1 and they both look like busts (Corey Davis at #5 and Mike Williams at #7). 

I agree with you on Gutey's draft record. 

His 2018 draft looks terrible in retrospect. Jaire Alexander is a good to great player and they got a punter that will be around for years in Round 5 and drafted a long snapper in Round 7. So, basically one impact player and not even that much depth. Right now, you'd probably give it a D grade - just because #1 CBs are hard to find and Alexander might be that. 

The 2019 draft will provide at least two good players - Savage in Round 1 and E. Jenkins in Round 2. The jury is out on Sternberger and Gary. The other guys appear to be just depth. That's probably a C draft right now. 

The difference from TT is that Gute does not rely exclusively on the draft. If TT would have had those two drafts, you'd be looking at a 4-12 team. Instead, we got the Smith "brothers" and Amos. 

The big concern this year is that there doesn't appear to be anybody (pending the rest of this draft) that really is a major improvement from last year that was added to the roster. He signed two guys that played a total of 3 games between them last year (Funchess and Kirksey) that were, at best, mild improvements over what they had and replaced Bulaga with Wagner (who is a gigantic downgrade and is just 7 months younger). Granted, they guaranteed Wagner about 14 million less than Bulaga was guaranteed from the Chargers, but this clearly made them worse. Kirksey is a potential better fit speed wise than Martinez, but Kirksey's played 9 games the last two years and had 2 interceptions and no sacks. They saved money here to, but for what? I guess Kenny Clark's extension. 

Bottom line is they need to get 2-3 contributors from the rest of this draft and have Sternberger and Gary turn into at least above average players at their positions or we are likely to see a big regression in record next year. 

The morons on KFAN were having a field day with this last night and this morning, so I'm feeling better about it.

I had a feeling this might happen.  But I am good with Love as their pick.  But now BG needs to pull a couple rabbits out of his hat today and tomorrow.

@SteveLuke posted:

Rob, Gutey KILLED free agency in 2019 with the Smith brothers, Amos, and to a lesser extent Turner.

But I was responding to a post about how Pack fans should chill because Gutey is most definitely going to be bringing in some immediate weapons with his remaining (post 1st round picks) to help Rodgers in the short-term.

I ask, given Gutey's draft record, what is this optimism based upon?

Blind faith?

Jenkins in the second looks like a good pick from the 2019 draft and the jury remains very much out on Sternberger.

But outside of those 2, and given the Josh Jackson, Oren Burks, J'Mon Moore, MVS selections, I don't think Gutey's track record is such that it is out of line for Packer fans to be doubting that immediate help is on its way.

They're all rookies, very few will be immediate helps.  Remember how we all wanted to run Adams out of town his rookie year?  It's the year 2 & 3 guys that are the immediate helps this year, not the rookies.

If there's no optimism in Gutey's draft record how could any pick he make in the 1st round be a good one?

I get the notion that this pick literally does zero for us next year, but the likelihood that any 1st round pick is going to do much for us this year is also fairly low.  If anything this pick putting a huge chip back on Rodgers shoulder probably did more for us than any other pick could have.

@Chongo posted:

I love all the justifications why this is a shit pick...

He's dumb.

He played at a small school.

Dan Marino was no rocket scientist. Neither was Bert. Kark Cuzzins had one of the all-time high wonderlic scores for a QB.

Just in recent memory, QB that came from small schools...Flacco, Roethlisberger, Jimmy G, Josh Allen (jury is still out but he looks promising), Slapperdick...and on the other side, lets look at all the Power 5 QB, hell some of them even won national championships, that did absolute ass in the league.

The bottom line is, NO ONE KNOWS who will be successful and who won't. Pick 30 is a suck spot to be in...Packers had 3 choices...trade up, trade down or sit there and take the highest guy you had left on your board who in all likelihood was probably a 2nd round at best rated guy.

Had the Packers had the chance to take a guy like WR Jefferson, Aiyuk or Reagor and passed, I'd be disappointed. Sorry, I'm not sold enough on Queen as the pick and as it stands, he wouldn't have been there at 30 either. All the top OT were gone, so had they taken Jones from Houston and Cleveland from Boise people probably would have bitched about taking a small school prospect in R1.

In the court of public opinion, you just can't fucking win.

^^^ Good post. 

I am not going to lose my shit over this pick. The bottom line is we will not know until at least 3 years from now unless Rodgers has a catastrophic injury. 

As I said earlier, the heir to Rodgers had to happen at some point. All I know from years of watching QB play, you cannot teach arm and size. You either have those or you don't. 

Love has a huge arm. He has ideal size and build. Again, that can't be developed. As much as I loved Matt Flynn, the kids arm was only so good. No QB Coach Guru was going to morph his arm into Favre's or Rodgers. Love's upside, among many, is that he has the arm strength and athleticism to literally make any throw.

We know his weaknesses, among many, are that he locks onto his primary target making it obvious where he wants to throw, he telegraphs too much, he doesn't look off the safety, etc. Those weaknesses most, if not all coaches will tell you are teachable and correctable. Whether Love is able to do that, time will tell AND whether MLF is the guy who develops him also remains to be seen.

"Heir Jordan" is rising in Twitter World. Maybe that new title comes to fruition in 2-3 years. Maybe it won't.

But regardless, he's going to interesting to watch. Even if he's Mr August for now. 

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

The fact that 6 WRs went in the top 25 picks really took a position of need with a lot of potential in this draft off the board at pick 30. In 2019, the top WR didn't get picked until #25. In 2018, the top WR went at #24. In 2017, only two WRs went in Round 1 and they both look like busts (Corey Davis at #5 and Mike Williams at #7). 

I agree with you on Gutey's draft record. 

His 2018 draft looks terrible in retrospect. Jaire Alexander is a good to great player and they got a punter that will be around for years in Round 5 and drafted a long snapper in Round 7. So, basically one impact player and not even that much depth. Right now, you'd probably give it a D grade - just because #1 CBs are hard to find and Alexander might be that. 

The 2019 draft will provide at least two good players - Savage in Round 1 and E. Jenkins in Round 2. The jury is out on Sternberger and Gary. The other guys appear to be just depth. That's probably a C draft right now. 

The difference from TT is that Gute does not rely exclusively on the draft. If TT would have had those two drafts, you'd be looking at a 4-12 team. Instead, we got the Smith "brothers" and Amos. 

The big concern this year is that there doesn't appear to be anybody (pending the rest of this draft) that really is a major improvement from last year that was added to the roster. He signed two guys that played a total of 3 games between them last year (Funchess and Kirksey) that were, at best, mild improvements over what they had and replaced Bulaga with Wagner (who is a gigantic downgrade and is just 7 months younger). Granted, they guaranteed Wagner about 14 million less than Bulaga was guaranteed from the Chargers, but this clearly made them worse. Kirksey is a potential better fit speed wise than Martinez, but Kirksey's played 9 games the last two years and had 2 interceptions and no sacks. They saved money here to, but for what? I guess Kenny Clark's extension. 

Bottom line is they need to get 2-3 contributors from the rest of this draft and have Sternberger and Gary turn into at least above average players at their positions or we are likely to see a big regression in record next year. 

Agree with pretty much everything you say Michigan.

It is certainly refreshing that Gutey does not ignore free agency like Ted did, but this offseason's FA signings have not improved the Pack's talent much, if at all.

I think Funchess and Kirksey should be improvements over Allison and Martinez ... provided they stay healthy.

However, as you point out, Wagner is a step down in talent from Bulaga.

As for the Packers getting contributions IN 2020 from 2-3 of the remaining picks in rounds 2 (late), 3 (late), 5, 6, 6, 6, 7, and 7 of the 2020 draft, I'm willing to wager, given Gutey's track record and the fact the Pack has not had 2-3 rookie contributors in a long, long time, that is not going to happen.

The general consensus is that you need 3 years to accurately evaluate a draft. Guys like MVS & ESB & Jackson are entering their 3rd years, and I haven't given up on them quite yet. As somebody else mentioned, remember how Adams regressed in his 2nd year before coming into his own in the 3rd.

@MNPackman posted:

The general consensus is that you need 3 years to accurately evaluate a draft. Guys like MVS & ESB & Jackson are entering their 3rd years, and I haven't given up on them quite yet. As somebody else mentioned, remember how Adams regressed in his 2nd year before coming into his own in the 3rd.

Very true, 3 years is a fair time to accurately evaluate a draft's overall quality. And lets hope Josh Jackson, Oren Burks, MVS, and ESB all prove their worth as 2018 draft picks by the end of the 2020 season. 

But we don't need to wait for 3 years to KNOW that Jackson, Burks, MVS, and ESB contributed next to nothing in their first year - 2018 (on a bad 6-9-1 football team).

Hence, assuming Gute is about to add 2-3 IMMEDIATE contributors to provide Rodgers with short-term help in 2020 with his upcoming selections in rounds 2, 3, 5, 6, and 7 (as suggested by Andrew Brandt) seems a tad optimistic.

When you look at Love's career at Utah State, his 2018 season was fantastic.  If he played that way in 2019, he's possibly a top 10 pick.  For whatever reason, he regressed badly in 2019.  If the Packers and Love can figure out why that happened, maybe he really will work out.  

That said... the 2019 season was such a drop off for him, it's very concerning and it's why he dropped out of being a top 10 pick.  You want to see a guy making progress as he ages, not completely fall off the table like he did.

He was at least slightly a bit "Deshon Kizerish" in 2019 and we all know how Kizer's time with the Pack went.  I think his arm is better than Kizer, but his decision making is at least somewhat like Kizer and that's the scary part to his game.

@GreenNgoldBlood posted:

Ian Rapoport

 

@RapSheet

·

30s

 

Draft notes post-Rd 1: — #Packers were adamant about trading up for Jordan Love, amid rumors the #Colts would call. Indy never did.

At the end of the day no matter what happened between the Colts, Packers, Seahawks and Dolphins, we know that Chris Ballard and Frank Reich did, in fact, want to select Jordan Love

I've already given direct quotes from Schneider about a trade with the Packers. I think Gutey gave up less to go 1 spot higher with Miami.

Stop looking at your hand & read between the lines....no GM worth his salt will give you 100% truth. 

Frank Reich wanted Jordan Love. After being at the draft live for the last 14 years I know the subterfuge that exists from clubs. The truth always comes out & it's quite obvious the Packers FO really liked Love plus they didn't give up much to get him. Packers basically gave a 5th rounder (late 4th)

Complete coaching staff change for Love in '19 and the team lost nine of eleven offensive starters. Pretty good breakdown of both his strengths and weaknesses...

I will admit I was pissed last night when they made this pick (not the trade or taking a QB, but the player). I'm slowly softening up to Love because I hadn't read much about him and what I had read tended to focus on his negatives. If you look at the "uncoachable" things he brings to the table though, it can be exciting to look at...great size, very athletic and mobile, big arm talent, big swagger and confidence, great deep ball passer, etc. His negatives are all things that can be fixed if he has the right attitude and determination. 

I remember seeing online draft guys talking during the college football season that Love should grad transfer (graduated at 21 - 27 on the wonderlic) to a bigger school and show out against better competition. Imagine if he had gone to LSU to take over for Burrow or gone to Michigan to take over for Patterson? It's not unreasonable to think he could found success with a better surrounding cast (ala Russell Wilson) and been a top 10 pick next year with the tools he has. So did we steal a potential franchise QB at pick 26? Maybe.

In the end Gute is swinging for the fences to be better from 2023-2033 and not just in 2020. We don't know if that's where this is heading, but short term fixes at skill position with no attention paid to longevity at QB (the most important position on the team) is truly the reason why the Vikings and Bears will forever only have spurts of success here and there, but not compete for championships EVERY year like GB has for the last 30 years. Short term pain in 2005/2006 yielded long term dominance. 

I don't really care about the pick.  It's a very "meh" pick.  I guess he has as good a shot as anyone but I prefer picks where decision making isn't a weak point, especially at QB.

It would be educational to watch the full-22 film of Love's 2018 year vs. 2019. Did he regress because he lost a lot of talent around him? Was it a new system that he and his receivers did not get on the same page? Or was it bad coaching? (I'm thinking mechanics here that might have changed from one year to the next depending on coaching.) Who was he throwing to and who was protecting him? I mean, you generally don't go from being a 30/6 QB to a 20/17 without something drastic happening. We don't have access to the all-22 (I don't think so, anyway) but the coaches do. 

I would question the 'Phins taking Tua so high. I mean, the guy is good, but look who he's also throwing to: Ruggs and Jeudy, plus he was protected by Willis, and the rest of the line, etc. You gotta think the game is a lot easier when you're surrounded by talant like that running free in the secondary and protecting you.

The draft now begins today

Name one Alabama QB that has had success in the NFL since Richard Todd.

@Grave Digger posted:

 

In the end Gute is swinging for the fences to be better from 2023-2033 and not just in 2020. 

100% agree that in the end Gutey "is swinging for the fences to be better from 2023-2033." 

But by selecting Love, Gutey also did almost nothing in round 1 of the 2020 draft to make the Packers better in 2020, 2021, and quite possibly 2022 (other than add a better backup QB).

There was a significant COST (forsaking immediate potential help) to go with the potential down the road BENEFIT of taking Love.

The philosophy of emphasizing franchise stability over time versus focusing on taking chances to win it all in the here and now has been a staple of the Packers organization since Ted Thompson took over.

@michiganjoe posted:

Complete coaching staff change for Love in '19 and the team lost nine of eleven offensive starters. Pretty good breakdown of both his strengths and weaknesses...

Wow that's a good share! Thanks! 

@MNPackman posted:

Name one Alabama QB that has had success in the NFL since Richard Todd.

I see things like this posted all the time.  None of it matters.  At all. 

@Pakrz posted:

I see things like this posted all the time.  None of it matters.  At all. 

Agreed. QBs coached by Jeff Tedford all were NFL disappointments until a guy named Aaron Rodgers came along.

Just heard Ryan Leaf saying that he talked to someone “close to Aaron’s camp” and he’s, Aaron, not upset about the pick, just that after 15 years he wasn’t even informed about the whole situation.  Who knows.......I would want Aaron to just be a man and deal with it.  Just hate when he becomes the problem, and that’s all the talking heads will be talking about.  

Gary Andersen took over for Matt Wells as HC in 2019. We all know Andersen pretty well from his short stint in Madison.  

In 2018, Utah State was 2nd in college football averaging 48PPG.  Last year?  They dropped to 64th at about 30PPG.  

The Aggies team two years ago was really good.  Not so much last year, although it doesn’t help having to play LSU and a much improved BYU and Boise State from the previous year.  They also turned over most of their starters on offense in 2019. 

@Grave Digger posted:

Wow that's a good share! Thanks! 

All that video proved is that i really don't know shit about the game of football.

Seriously, that's an excellent video.  Thanks michiganjoe!

Aaron is a realist and I doubt he’s upset they took a QB or that he wasn’t notified before the pick, but it sounds like Gute was on the hunt for a QB and maybe didn’t give Rodgers a heads up in advance of the draft. He doesn’t need Aaron’s permission, but I do think it’s cool to give him a potential heads up that there could be a media firestorm heading his way. The narrative is going to be a sensationalized “Aaron vs. Jordan” through training camp and preseason and any time Aaron struggles for the next 3 years. It’s not wrong to give him a heads up on plans and allow him to craft a media strategy ahead of time. 

@Thunderbird posted:

All that video proved is that i really don't know shit about the game of football.

Seriously, that's an excellent video.  Thanks michiganjoe!

Same. 

Here's a quick look back at Love's NCAA season leading highlight reel going into the NFL draft.

To make this fun, remember that Utah State is in the Mountain West Conference. Since most of these are nobody schools I've never watched, it's interesting how most of these passes look like they are directly on point, until you realize it's being thrown to the corner and not the receiver.

Also this:

"Across 13 games in 2019, Love threw an FBS-high 17 interceptions. His 3.6 percent interception rate ranks 102nd out of the 105 FBS quarterbacks who've attended the combine since 2014 -- only Mitch Leidner (3.9 pct in 2017), Jameis Winston (3.9 pct in 2015) and Tanner Lee (3.7 pct in 2018) threw interceptions at a higher rate in their final collegiate seasons. While Love has intriguing athleticism for the position (74 athleticism score, with a 4.74 40-yard dash at 224 pounds), his overall draft score of 60 would be worse than every quarterback taken in the first round of the draft since 2003, with the exception of Rex Grossman (53), who went 22nd overall in 2003."

We obviously don't know what is going on behind the scenes at 1265.  But, I would be inclined to agree with Aaron's comments to the Milwaukee radio station that he wouldn't be upset with the Packers picking a QB because he is a realist.  

Anyhow, this may be the classic case of best player available on the board.  We may never know if he was Gute's best player available but that is just my hunch. 

What I don't get is the throng of Packers "fans" on social media calling for Gute's job over this pick.  I trust the dude he took the team from two horrible years to the brink of the Super Bowl so I tend to give him a bit of a break.

@MNPackman posted:

Name one Alabama QB that has had success in the NFL since Richard Todd.

Name one North Dakota State QB that has been a failure in the NFL

@Henry posted:

I don't think he's dumb.  He makes bad decisions on the field.  We've seen way too many super athletes go in the shitter because they don't have the mentality to handle the NFL.  It's not unreasonable.

QB's make dumb decisions. Not everyone is Brees, Brady or #12. If he can be coached out of it, it will be fine. 

Additionally, people are focusing entirely too much on his 2019 stats...2018 he was a different QB because he had a different coach, different OC and veteran OL. He made some really great decisions in 2017 and 2018. Pre 2019, there were scouts that had him as their #1 QB on the board because of his arm talent alone.

Chances are, your concerns about him may be spot on as to why he fails in the NFL. Or it may be an entire reason entirely.

@Grave Digger posted:

Aaron is a realist and I doubt he’s upset they took a QB or that he wasn’t notified before the pick, but it sounds like Gute was on the hunt for a QB and maybe didn’t give Rodgers a heads up in advance of the draft. He doesn’t need Aaron’s permission, but I do think it’s cool to give him a potential heads up that there could be a media firestorm heading his way. The narrative is going to be a sensationalized “Aaron vs. Jordan” through training camp and preseason and any time Aaron struggles for the next 3 years. It’s not wrong to give him a heads up on plans and allow him to craft a media strategy ahead of time. 

Why would Rodgers be "pissed off"?  His career started THE EXACT SAME WAY.  Did he not see something like this coming eventually?  He's 36 and guaranteed to be the starter through at least 2021 possibly 2022.  Doesn't seem that awful to me.  

Just curious, who would the Packers need to walk away with in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to have this be considered a good draft for 2020?  I'd be pretty happy is they can walk away with a #2 WR, and either an OT with starter potential or a starting ILB in 2020.  If they draft, say, a CB, S, RB, or edge rusher, I'd be pretty unhappy.  

I think it'd be interesting if they drafted Love's former high school teammate, Krys Barnes, in the fourth or fifth round. He's been an LB at UCLA, great kid, productive despite the lack of speed. 

https://www.espn.com/college-f.../4035817/krys-barnes

Here's what Krys posted last night:

https://twitter.com/KrysBarnes...948636766209/photo/1

Found on the web last night: Let's say Jordan Love doesn't play until the 2023 season. He'll open that seasons 24 years old. Joe Burrow turns 24 in December.

@Pakrz posted:

I see things like this posted all the time.  None of it matters.  At all. 

Agreed. Just like all the mock draft sites and their lists and fan consensus board, etc... The guys who get paid to make the NFL go are the ones who matter and that's why they have those jobs. Gutey's been in the evaluator business a long time. 

20 TD passes and 17 INTs in his final season in a conference known for pass-happy offenses? Doesn't get many yards with his legs, either (2.2 yds per rush attempt). I'll admit I wasn't happy about the Rodgers pick in 2005, but this looks much worse.