2020 Green Bay Packers Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFCC Official Game Thread

@Tschmack posted:

Mistakes just kill you

KC returner Hardman fumbles at the 5 and one play Buffalo score.  Almost identical to the Jones fumble and return to within the 10 and one play score by TB.  Jones has been so good all year and today was a nightmare game for him.

I did the JFK back and to the left review of the TD right before half and there are multiple layers of ineptitude going on there.  They call the TO and looks like some confusion then quick snap and Brady lobs it out there and King is beat by 10 yards and Redmond is in fucking la la land in the middle of the field.  It’s amazing how bad of a play that was for the Packers.  Actually, it might be worse than 4th and 26 or the Terrell Owens TD to beat the Packers.

In the 24 years since Super Bowl 31, we've won one Super Bowl despite having been QB'd every year by a first ballot HOFer. The 2010 run helps, but is there a team on the wrong end of just gut-wrenching playoff losses in the last 24 years? We'd be in Cleveland factory of sadness territory without that run, and even then the only game they could have lost on the last play was the Eagles game where Tramon picked off Michael Vick in the end zone. The one game where the Packers won a game on the last play/final minute was on Al Harris' pick 6 against the Seahawks.

The games you lose where the other team is just better than you are disappointing, but they don't sting like games where you were at least as good if not the better team and you lose a close game. The Packers have been eliminated 9 times in the last 24 years in those types of games.

1. 1997 season. Loss to Broncos in the Super Bowl where the Packers drive to the Broncos 31 down 7 and have 4 incompletions in a row.

2. 1998 season. Terrell Owens TD pass after the Jerry Rice non-fumble call.

3. Favre OT interception against the Eagles after 4th and 26.

4. Favre OT interception against the Giants in the NFC title game

5. OT loss to Arizona on the fumble return after the missed face mask call.

6. Loss on a FG at the gun to SF (the year after the Kaepernik running game)

7. Seattle debacle

8. Rodgers hits two Hail Marys to tie it and they lose in OT on the blown coverage to Fitzgerald

9. Today's game.

@pkr_north posted:

the blueprint is out on how to beat the packers, just punch them in the face.  they are too much finesse not enough pound.  sf did it last year, tb had the kryptonite this year.  that doesn't change, nothing else does.

That BLUEPRINT has been in place for a decade now -- ever since a bad KC team beat the 15-1 2011 team, followed by Kap running for a record number of yards in the 2012 playoffs, right up until Jimmy G throwing just 8 passes in the 2019 NFC Championship and SF running all over us, etc., etc., etc.

Oh well, we almost always win the NFC North so most Packers will be placated.

Donald must have been more hurt than they let on.

Tampa didn’t fear GB like other teams have. That’s the problem in a nutshell. When you don’t fear Aaron Rodgers, when you’re playing your game instead of his, then you up your chances of succeeding. When you fear his scramble or his eyes or his running then you’re going to get beat. Tampa played hard, aggressive, and ultimately GB couldn’t match it.

To be fair to Rodgers though: when you score 58 points against two of the 5 best defenses in the league, in back to back weeks, you expect to win. 26 should have been enough. We spotted TB 14 points that never should have happened. 26-17 without two incredible mental errors.

According to ESPN's Win Probability model, the Packers had a 10% chance of winning by going for it on fourth down and a 9.5% chance of winning by kicking a field goal.

Food for thought.

@Blair Kiel posted:

According to ESPN's Win Probability model, the Packers had a 10% chance of winning by going for it on fourth down and a 9.5% chance of winning by kicking a field goal.

Food for thought.

I'd have to see how those algorithms are set up. Does it take into account your QB is Aaron Rodgers, or is it for all teams. MLF made that decision like his QB was Mitch Trubisky.

@Grave Digger posted:

Donald must have been more hurt than they let on.

Tampa didn’t fear GB like other teams have. That’s the problem in a nutshell. When you don’t fear Aaron Rodgers, when you’re playing your game instead of his, then you up your chances of succeeding. When you fear his scramble or his eyes or his running then you’re going to get beat. Tampa played hard, aggressive, and ultimately GB couldn’t match it.

To be fair to Rodgers though: when you score 58 points against two of the 5 best defenses in the league, in back to back weeks, you expect to win. 26 should have been enough. We spotted TB 14 points that never should have happened. 26-17 without two incredible mental errors.

And one of the other TD drives was after Savage couldn't knock down a wounded duck of a pass.

@Blair Kiel posted:

According to ESPN's Win Probability model, the Packers had a 10% chance of winning by going for it on fourth down and a 9.5% chance of winning by kicking a field goal.

Food for thought.

Exactly! Much ado about nothing.

@Blair Kiel posted:

According to ESPN's Win Probability model, the Packers had a 10% chance of winning by going for it on fourth down and a 9.5% chance of winning by kicking a field goal.

Food for thought.

What was the win probability after the Tampa TD right before the 1st half ended?  0.0%?

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/01...-field-goal-decision

At least LaFleur didn't throw any coaches or players under the bus.

"I felt like we had plenty of opportunities tonight to take advantage of and get the job done," LaFleur said. "We didn't do it, and that falls on me, and that's a tough pill to swallow when you're responsible for everybody in this organization to make sure that you're on your A-game, and I don't feel like I was tonight. I'm just pretty disappointed that [I] let a lot of people down.

Silver lining.  We'll get to see Jordan Love sooner!

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/01...-field-goal-decision

Thanks for posting this. It’s an issue

@Henry posted:

Silver lining.  We'll get to see Jordan Love sooner!

Because when you can move on from a guy that threw 53 TDs against 7 interceptions in 18 games, you gotta do it.

I still want to hear what Gutey and MLF really thought going into this year. Did they think Rodgers was declining and needed to move on? If so, it's one of the most curious drafting decisions in many years. Taking him at all is one thing. Moving up aggressively to take him is another.

Did Tramon get snaps.
if not, why?

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

I still want to hear what Gutey and MLF really thought going into this year.

Don't hold your breath.

@YATittle posted:

Did Tramon get snaps.
if not, why?

King was getting open on every play

@YATittle posted:

Did Tramon get snaps.
if not, why?

Would he have saved the Game?

Why?

@Grave Digger posted:

Donald must have been more hurt than they let on.

Tampa didn’t fear GB like other teams have. That’s the problem in a nutshell. When you don’t fear Aaron Rodgers, when you’re playing your game instead of his, then you up your chances of succeeding. When you fear his scramble or his eyes or his running then you’re going to get beat. Tampa played hard, aggressive, and ultimately GB couldn’t match it.

It's easy not to fear an offense when you have the dogs to do it.  Especially their ILB's.  Those two give that D the luxury of doing a lot of things no other D can do at the moment.  That's why they were able to.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Because when you can move on from a guy that threw 53 TDs against 7 interceptions in 18 games, you gotta do it.

I still want to hear what Gutey and MLF really thought going into this year. Did they think Rodgers was declining and needed to move on? If so, it's one of the most curious drafting decisions in many years. Taking him at all is one thing. Moving up aggressively to take him is another.

I would hazard a guess that in April of 2020, Packers management saw AR's last few years weren't at his 2008-2016 levels, looked at his cap hits of $40M in 22 and $30M in 23, and decided that his being moved after the 2021-2022 season would be the most likely outcome. Yeah, it's still a decent hit trading/releasing him next off season, but not crippling. And saves the organization like $50M of actual cash. Which can go towards more real estate purchases for Murphy!

In a vacuum one can make a logical argument for it. You will need a QB in 2 years, you think this kid is much better than anyone you'd realistically be able to get in 2022, so be aggressive and get your man now!

My problem was, and still is twofold

1. And at the end of the day, I just don't think that Jordan Love is going to amount to anything in the NFL. He looked horrible against bad competition his junior year. Bad decision making. Not terribly accurate. He didn't really use his legs, so it's not like he's some new fangled dual threat guy. Look, I thought Herbert would be a huge bust, so, take my opinion for what it's worth, but I'll be surprised if he's any better than DeShone Kizer.

2. The Packers were in the NFCC the previous year, had several clear gaps in talent and could have used the draft (and FA) to shore them up. I wanted them to pick a WR or LB in the 1st. When Jefferson was picked I wanted Patrick Queen, and would have been fine with Jordyn Brooks. Yes, fans look short term, but this franchise has a window with a great QB and not doing everything you can to maximize the here and now with that QB is criminal. After seeing how well AR played this season, it's even more criminal that they were still trotting guys like Ty Summers and ESB and Lancaster out there today.

How would a LB have helped them in all those failed goal to go situations?

hOw DiD JoRDan LoVE HElp thEm iN AlL ThOse FaILeD GoAL tO Go SiTuATIons?

By staying on the bench.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Because when you can move on from a guy that threw 53 TDs against 7 interceptions in 18 games, you gotta do it.

I still want to hear what Gutey and MLF really thought going into this year. Did they think Rodgers was declining and needed to move on? If so, it's one of the most curious drafting decisions in many years. Taking him at all is one thing. Moving up aggressively to take him is another.

Honestly in 2019, it did look like Rodgers was in decline.  He only had 1 bad game this year, but he really looked terrible at times in ‘19.  I think of that last game against Detroit in the regular season where his accuracy was horrendous and then he had another terrible game vs the 49ers in the playoffs.

Even though I was stunned to see the Pack pick a QB, considering how 2017-2019 went for Rodgers I can see why the Pack might have thought he was in decline. From the collarbone injury game all the way until the horrid 49ers loss, Rodgers was nowhere near as good as he was this year.  Maybe he got healthier?  For whatever reason he was much improved this year.

Year 2 of MLF O.

I agree about the 2017-2019 Rodgers vs the 2020 Rodgers. Now the bigger question becomes: which Rodgers shows up next year?

@Fandame posted:

I agree about the 2017-2019 Rodgers vs the 2020 Rodgers. Now the bigger question becomes: which Rodgers shows up next year?

A pissed off Rodgers the Packers refused to trade and take the cap hit on who makes the business decision to stay safe and healthy all year long to keep his trade value near the top of the market.

Don’t  blame him at all. I would assume Love will redshirt again next year until they figure out in Week 3 he still hasn’t seen a field and 12 checked out completely.

Tampa Bay ranked second in the NFL with 1,015 yards worth of penalties called in 15 regular season games.

In the 16th game, our week 6 matchup: 0 penalties.

Yesterday? 2 penalties. 8 yards.

Riiiight.

I don't think winning/losing a game is ever the result of one single play.
But there were 2 plays today that stood out because of their contrast, and they had the biggest influence on the outcome.

1. Not calling PI on Murphy-Bunting on the attempt to Lizard.
2. Calling PI on King.

There's way too much wrong with one or both of them. Either both of them were penalties or both weren't. Any distinction between those calls indicates a bias.

@Timmy! posted:

I don't think winning/losing a game is ever the result of one single play.
But there were 2 plays today that stood out because of their contrast, and they had the biggest influence on the outcome.

1. Not calling PI on Murphy-Bunting on the attempt to Lizard.
2. Calling PI on King.

There's way too much wrong with one or both of them. Either both of them were penalties or both weren't. Any distinction between those calls indicates a bias.

Not only did Bunting hold Lazrard, he used the leverage created by the tug to get into position to make the pick.

On King's PI play, Tampax right tackle has Gary in a sleeper hold that Chief Jay Strongbow would be proud of!

League wants Tom in the SB. What a great story: Tampa hosting the SB and playing in it, Tom back in the SB and NE doesn’t make playoffs without him, Tom is 43 years old, Tom had 3 road wins to get here, blah blah blah.

@NedFlanders posted:

They are available on Sirius XM. About a 5 minute delay. No idea why they can't figure this out in 2021.

I listened to Kevin Harlan and Kurt Warner on Westwood One, broadcasting over the Packer's Radio Network. They were not bad, but I had enough of the Brady talk. When the game started, the radio calls and the TV broadcast were right in sync. Then, in the second half, Westwood One went to a commercial and when they came back, the radio was 14-18 seconds behind the TV broadcast. It got very annoying, very quickly. Both Warner and Harlan were critical of the Packers drives where it looked like they wanted to run out the clock, rather than score. I agreed with their assessment.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/penalties.html

@Fandame posted:

I agree about the 2017-2019 Rodgers vs the 2020 Rodgers. Now the bigger question becomes: which Rodgers shows up next year?

Do you not understand being more successful in a new offense in the second year vs. the first, not to even mention vs. the death throes of MM's offense?

If the team and the organization can all get on the same page by kickoff and they've addressed the upcoming holes on the roster, I'd expect him to be almost as good as he was this year.  Why wouldn't he be?

@Timmy! posted:

I don't think winning/losing a game is ever the result of one single play.
But there were 2 plays today that stood out because of their contrast, and they had the biggest influence on the outcome.

1. Not calling PI on Murphy-Bunting on the attempt to Lizard.
2. Calling PI on King.

There's way too much wrong with one or both of them. Either both of them were penalties or both weren't. Any distinction between those calls indicates a bias.

The only thing I’ll say is that Murphy Bunting did a better job disguising his hold than King did where the jersey pull was ridiculously obvious.  That said, Murphy-Bunting’s play was a legit hold and it cost the Pack an INT.

We all know there are missed calls in every game.  They either missed the call on the INT or thought it wasn't egregious enough to call it.  KK's jersey holding was hard to miss.

Lmao bro you can’t make this shit up pic.twitter.com/n88dOIs8jv

— Krish Patel (@Dodgers1819) January 25, 2021

FOUND ON THE INTERNET: There is going to be a lot of pushing for the firing of Pettine by some fans. I doubt Gute cares for what some armchair GM's say. We have all known that the defense was pretty thin in the secondary, and Tampa schemed to attack those positions in the Packers defense. Bruce Arians is a smart HC and running unscouted looks that attacked Sullivan in the slot was smart and successful early. Tampa's pace was a lot faster than Green Bay anticipated on both side of the ball. Blaming King for a breakdown in secondary coverage at the end of the half is stupid. Where was Amos or Redman, and why wasn't a timeout called to get the defensive formation right. That is as much on Lafleur as Head Coach to stop play, call a timeout, so his defense can get the presnap formation right. (Gray got some explaining to do) During the second half Pettine was making massive adjustment in game which stalled out Tampa's offense and forced three turnovers. Bottom line: Green Bay's defense again gave this team a chance to win during the second half. Why Lafleur went away from the run game in the fourth quarter is questionable. RB Dillion created mismatches that the Tampa LB could not cope with. And even not committing to play action to keep Tampa from blitzing the OL with the game in doubt is going away from Green Bay's offensive strength. The self scouting is not going to be pretty for the offensive staff this week. (And the odds that Lafleur is going to be fired even after failing in his second straight NFC champ game. 0.01%) The other telling point here, is MLF seemed not to have many offense packages ready to go against the Tampa defense, and with key injuries limited what the Packer offense could do in the second half, or equally MLF did not trust his skill personal till be was forced to play them.