That’s how many yards Rodgers would have to average per game to be the first QB to ever throw for 6000 yards.

Crazy? Not so crazy to me. In Manning’s NFL record 2013 season, he averaged 342. Drew Brees averaged the same in his then record setting 2011 campaign. 

There’s an awful lot of folks in the pundit world tossing Rodgers’ prime out the door. He’s no longer elite. Want to see what a motivated Rodgers can do in a 21st century offense? Doubt him.. go ahead. 

Weapons- does he have enough? Maybe it’s more about the system. It sure seemed like the talent was pretty good, rookies being rookies and all. Was the system right for Jimmy Graham? Is there a better one? Did McCarthy even know how to use a TE anymore? 

It seems like a complete impossibility. But in today’s NFL, is it really? And with a legendary QB trying to prove a bunch of folks it wasn’t him in a system that Marcus Mariotta and Jered Goff have put up numbers? 

375... it could happen. 

Original Post

Under MM, who let him do what he wanted and didn't really give 2 shits about the run game? I would buy that as possible. 

With the new sheriff in town? Highly doubt it. To get to 375 per game, AR would be throwing like 40-45 times a game. Not a good look for a soon to be 36 year old QB wanting to play til 40. Throwing that much will mean the chances of AR on the ground much more likely. 

MLF has said time again, along with Rodgers, that they will be running the fuc**** ball. And unlike McStubborn, I really think LaFleur is going to commit to it come hell or high water. 

That means Rodgers, who if IIRC threw it 37 times per game  last season, probably drops to somewhere around 30 attempts. Unless he's throwing bombs every throwing play, he may not even get to 300 some games. And if that means they win games 24-17, 21-13, ? Fine by me. 

According to PF Outsiders, in 2018 the Packers had a .711 DSR (drive success rate- % of drives resulting in a first down or touchdown), which just above the league’s average at .710. 

The Chiefs were #1 at .798 (NO right behind at .797).

The most yards for an offense in one season all time is still the 2001 Rams with 7075 yards. 

The Packers don’t have Marshall Faulk... 

In theory, I think the Packers have an offense that is capable of doing that.
In reality, it would mean dedicating the offense to accomplish that (read: still throwing when you're up by 3 scores with under 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter, among other things).

If a season played out where Rodgers was close to setting that record with 3-4 games left, AND they have a secured playoff seeding, I wouldn't see a problem with trying to accomplish it. 
I personally would prefer to have our RBs running out the clock for a victory after ARod has done his damage through the first 3 quarters.

Music City posted:

 

The most yards for an offense in one season all time is still the 2001 Rams with 7075 yards. 

The Packers don’t have Marshall Faulk... 

The most yards all-time is the 2011 NO Saints with 7474. 2nd is the 2013 Broncos with 7317. Rams are still 3rd.

And I know Marshall Faulk. 

 

Sorry about that- should have dug a little deeper in the research- must have been old data. Net and gross are also variances I should have specified. 

One thing about that 2011 Saints offense- that was peak Darren Sproles. He had 1300 yards rushing/receiving that season as the 3rd down RB. They gave the ball to Ingram, Thomas, and Ivory about 300 times, and he still out-rushed them all at almost 7 yards a carry on 89 attempts. 

I suspect if the Packers run for over 2000 yards like that team did, we wouldn’t think they abandoned the run game. And while I like this stable of RBs for the most part, I don’t know about them doing that unless the rookie from ND proves a revelation. The Packers won the 2010 (2011) Super Bowl only rushing for 1600 yards. 

JMO, but I think the only 2 stats (besides winning) that's important to AR is QB rating and TD to INT ratio. Both of which he has a death grip on over anyone else in the history of the NFL. 

An increase in pass attempts to get to 6K yards likely increases his picks and hurts his career passer rating if he's taking more risks throwing the ball. Neither of which he'd want to jeopardize. 

michiganjoe posted:

#12 putting up 375 a game would indicate the offense isn't functioning as the head coach desires. Unlike MM, I take him at his word about running the ball.

Or more likely it would mean our defense is giving up massive points and yards to the other team so we're trying to catch up or just need to keep scoring to stay in the game. 

I prefer a balanced offense and a stout defense as others have stated. 

michiganjoe posted:

#12 putting up 375 a game would indicate the offense isn't functioning as the head coach desires. Unlike MM, I take him at his word about running the ball.

That’s not necessarily true. If the offense threw for 390 and they ran for 125, would that indicate the offense isn’t  functioning well? And there may be times the defense does a “pick your poison” game plan and  the offense is simply being dared to throw. In a game like that, the offense would simply be functioning as the game plan dictated to allow for the greatest chance of success.

One factor that cannot be discounted is the additional PI rules and the possibility that these changes could have some unintended effect this season that teams weren’t prepared for.

Prior to 2008, only Marino did it. In 2011, three different QBs threw for 5000, and if Rodgers would have played game 16 he likely throws for the 357 yards he needed to get to 5000 as well. It’s happened 9 times this decade. The game has changed. Ben Rothliesburger “quietly” threw for 5100 yards last year- and the Steelers neither lit up the score board all season long nor did it really seem like Röthlisberger had that kind of season. That’s the NFL today. 

I think we need to recalibrate what excessive yardage means in today’s game, and how balance is defined. We also need to take coach speak with a certain amount of skepticism. The NFL in 2019 is not one that even values the running back. In the end, don’t you just want to put your team in the best position to win? With the rules of today, and the complexity of offense and skill level of today's QB athletes, we have to at least acknowledge those consequences. Achieving this seemingly impossible statistical feat should be tossed aside no more quickly than have something that happened once in 90 years of NFL football happen 9 different times in the last decade. And it may or may not be indicative of anything but the convergence of circumstance that generated the same explosion of passing yards the last decade. 

I would be fine with one thing or the other- run for 3000 yards, pass for 10,000. Another Lombardi up on the shelf is the goal. But it is remarkable to me at least how this number, before seemingly impossible, seems completely possible today. And would any of us be surprised if #12 was the guy to do it? It wouldn’t be to me...

I would say take what the defense gives you.  So on the season if we had 5000 yards rushing and 2000 yards passing, and won the SB - I would be good with that.  I realize the other way around is more realistic - but my point is I'm with Boris & Pikes Peak - just win baby ............ whatever it takes.  

michiganjoe posted:

Should have qualified my response with consistently.  By my count AR's only thrown for that many yards in nine regular season games and given the new coach's stated desire for balance just don't see it.

Exactly,  I see it as highly contrary to the Packer's new offensive scheme.

Furthermore, all else being the same, it makes sense to me to scheme for Rodger's to have as much longevity as possible.

I'm not talking mothballing him.  Perhaps he generally throws for 250-325 yards per game.

Well, not really. He could throw for 600 in one game and then only 150 in the next game and still be on track to average 375 a game. 

Rodgers threw for more than 375 three times last year. He had only four games of more than 300: v Det 442; v SF 425; v Seattle 332; v Jets 442. Or an average of about 410 YPG. In 2017, his first three games were all over 300, but not by a whole lot.  In 2016, including playoffs, he had 8 games over 300, but only one close to 375 at 362. In 2014, despite the great year, he had nine games over 300, but only a couple approaching 375.

If Rodgers averages 375, either there are no RBs on the roster or MLF told a "stretcher" about emphasizing the run or AR is ignoring every play call but throws. In short, ain't gonna ever happen.

Ghost of Lambeau posted:

I would say take what the defense gives you.  So on the season if we had 5000 yards rushing and 2000 yards passing, and won the SB - I would be good with that.  I realize the other way around is more realistic - but my point is I'm with Boris & Pikes Peak - just win baby ............ whatever it takes.  

I don’t really think anyone is arguing against that. I know I’m not. 

The central point of the original post is really something that started with a comment I read in a discussion about whether Tom Brady is the greatest QB ever. The comment was that if Rodgers played for Belichick, he’d throw for 7000 yards in that system.

So how possible is that? Well, 7000 probably isn't, but what about 6000? 375/game? That seems possible. The NFL of 2019 and all its pass-happy glory is far more conducive to that possibility than at any time in the past. And I still believe that #12 is thee greatest QB to ever toss the pill- better than Brady, better than them all. 

But there’s a part of me I suppose that wants to see this validated somehow. Rings will do that, sure. So will undeniable greatness in performance. Here’s to hoping for both...

Not gonna happen, not in this offense. Back when we had a stable of starting caliber WR's, a great OL and a HC that couldn't give two ****s about running the ball that was possible. And they still didn't do it.

Less is more this year. Less 5-7 step drop backs by 12 is going to make the offense better and more efficient. On paper anyway they should get more snaps on offense compared to 2018 if the defense can actually force some 3 and outs and turnovers. I see those extra snaps going more to the running game and the 2-3 step passing game. 

Matter of fact, change 375 to 275 and I think that's the number to strive for this year. 30ish attempts per game and about 275 yards. I really don't care about the yards though. I want to see an improved completion % and 40-50 TD's. That's what this offense needs. Efficiency and many trips to the EZ. 

Fandame posted:

I wanna see what MLF's offense looks like in the hands of Rodgers before I make any predictions or state what this offense needs... other than 375 yds/game isn't going to happen.  

Same here.  I am very anxious to see what the new system will look like and if it will be as balanced as many think it will be.  

One thing I do want to see is quicker plays.  It seemed in MM's offense the plays were always so slow to develop.

Biggest plus to MLF bringing a new philosophy on O to GB, to me, is a heightened emphasis on running the rock. I am really just hoping we have a more balanced attack to win games and keep Aaron healthy. Keeping opposing front 7s from just pinning their ears back and gunning for Rodgers with a real threat of run will help. I'm really hoping our RBs get no less than 25-30 attempts per game.

Now, that will open up the play action, which could add a ton of yards to Rodgers' totals per game, with more explosive plays. I believe our WR group and our TE group will outperform expectations this year. They've got size, speed and great catching ability. It is a pretty dynamic group, trending upwards. The tired days of dink and dunk are probably gone.

Another factor that could help him add to his ypg totals, while still being a balanced mix of run/pass is how many times our D will be able to give Aaron the ball back. Opposing defenses could get worn out being on the field so much, adding to explosive plays for our offense. I'm thinking this Packers D might create A LOT of turnovers and 3 & outs. I'm hoping so.

Add one more factor, an increase in completion percentage with a better scheme, and more familiarity between Aaron and his WRs/TEs and RBs out of the backfield.

We only had 7.2 yds/attempt last season, ranking 20th. We ranked 3rd in Attempts, but just 26th in Comp%. Ranked just 20th in TDs thrown, and 16th in QB rating. We ranked 2nd in Sacked Yards Lost... not a good stat to be ranked #2 if you want to keep Aaron healthy. We were dead LAST in Rushing Attempts, yet #2 in yds/att. - further proof that Mike McCarthy was a dipsh!t (NE was #3 in Rushing Attempts, and Belichick gets it). I can see ALL of that changing for the Packers this season under MLF.

With THIS defense currently assembled, and LaFleur as HC? Wow. A whole new set of possibilities comes into play, especially if our offense gets back on track. Could happen without a monster increase in attempts by Aaron, but rather a higher Comp% and more y/att. For instance, if Aaron had 8.8 yds/att like Mahomes did, we would already have been around 5500 yds. Then, increase our dismal completion %? It could happen.

Rather than have Aaron throw for over 6000 yds, I'd much prefer giving our 3 RBs something closer to 40 Attempts/Game. THAT, to me, would be stellar. Rushing the football a ton wears opposing defenses out, extends drives and TOP... Football 101. It would expose our entire D and Aaron Rodgers far less to risk of injury, and improve our effectiveness on both sides of the ball.

Trophies,  the stats you put down for running the ball last year still irritates me.  They were very sucessful running the ball when MM chose to do it.   We don't know what MLF thinks but if he is as bright as advertised he will take notice of that and really commit to the run.

As others have said running the ball successfuly and being balanced offensively still works in today's football.  You control the clock, the D can't just rush the passer, and it can open huge opportunities with play action.  And the Packers D wont be on the field for long periods of time.

Be balanced and just win I don't care what the score is or what the stats are but WIN.

The Heckler posted:

Trophies,  the stats you put down for running the ball last year still irritates me.  They were very sucessful running the ball when MM chose to do it.   We don't know what MLF thinks but if he is as bright as advertised he will take notice of that and really commit to the run.

As others have said running the ball successfuly and being balanced offensively still works in today's football.  You control the clock, the D can't just rush the passer, and it can open huge opportunities with play action.  And the Packers D wont be on the field for long periods of time.

Be balanced and just win I don't care what the score is or what the stats are but WIN.

Hey Heckler,

Those stats irritate the H outta me too. Never should have happened. A complete dereliction of duty by MM. He was an idiot. Yeah, this is basic stuff. How could he not have seen that? I think we will be seeing a different approach this season under LaFleur, one where Rodgers could really benefit in the stat column, if he allows for more rushing attempts within the scheme. Very simple.

You cannot give your RBs lesss than 20 carries per game, and expect to win and keep your QB upright. We had 20 carries total per game, and Aaron ran at least 4-5 att/game. That's how bad it was.

DH13 posted:

Woops.  Wrong thread.  I thought this was the 375th page of Vikings Suck.

You disagree? DH13? Why? 

I think Music City's premise is very clearly within the realm of possibility. I don't necessarily want them to go for that, but, I could easily see it happen with a new system in place, an improved OL, a better familiarity with our receivers, a commitment to the running game and a great defense.

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