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@Boris posted:

Well shit. That sucked

The series sucked, but they weren't going to beat the Dodgers or the Giants anyway.

It's not overstating it's more important for the Brewers to figure out what to do about Yelich than it was to win this series. He's going to be 25% of their payroll for the next 7 years. He was a complete mess most of the season and looked like a deer in the headlights at the plate this series. If he is even 75% of the guy from 2018-19, the Brewers may have won the whole thing.

Having a guy that you have to fear every at-bat changes your whole lineup. Look no further than Freeman.  Instead, we got a guy who is a slap-hitter who looked like he was going to cry in his last at-bat. He was that lost.

@Blair Kiel posted:

The good news is we have all our pitching back.

The bad news is we have all our hitting back.

I think they'll move Hader for some offensive help. This is what one site (below) is projecting in terms of salary after arbitration this offseason.

If you just account for Hader, Burnes, and Woodruff's increases in arbitration, the salaries basically double from 11 million to just over 21 million. Adames, Houser, and Lauer go from 1.5 million to 9 million. That's 30 million for those 6 guys next year.

The real problem is that they owe Yelich, Cain, Bradley Jr., Wong, and Garcia almost 75 million next year. Of course, most of that is to Yelich, Cain, and Bradley who get 54 million next year. Yelich is lost, Cain will be 36, and Bradley was unplayable.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com...laries-for-2022.html

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com...laries-for-2022.html

Brewers (14) Arbitration estimates 2022

  • Jace Peterson – $1.3MM
  • Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM
  • Brent Suter – $2.3MM
  • Luke Maile – $1.0MM
  • Josh Hader – $10.0MM
  • Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM
  • Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM
  • Willy Adames – $4.0MM
  • Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM
  • Eric Lauer – $2.7MM
  • Jandel Gustave – $800K
  • Adrian Houser – $2.3MM
  • Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM
  • Luis Urias – $2.4MM

What it really came down to was that at the end of 2019, the organization thought that they had their #3 and #4 hitters set for the next 5 years in Yelich and Hiura. Yelich became a 26 million dollar Jim Gantner and Hiura couldn't even make the post-season roster. They have to fill those positions next year somehow. Adames is their best player going forward and Urias looks like a keeper, but there isn't really another position player you look at as a long-term solution (although Garcia and Wong are nice pieces next year, too). I think you have to move some pitching (probably Hader) for some offensive firepower and if you can package one of the bad contracts with him (Yelich, Bradlyer, or the last year of Cain) even better.

I’m not sure the timing on Garrett Mitchell or Brice Turang but both guys can hit and generate and score runs.  Mitchell has pop as well.   Some scouts believe one or both guys could arrive at the big league club in 2022.   If they continue to progress, that’s a couple of more guys in the mix to improve the hitting and offense.  Mitchell could also be an elite level defender given his speed and athleticism.

I think what we're seeing is that this was a very very flawed team that
1. Dominated the Cubs and Pirates
2. Was basically a slightly above average team vs everyone else.
3. Had a pitching staff that was so good that allowed you to still be >.500 with an absolute anemic offense.

Vs Cubs and Pirates

  • 29-9 record
  • + 108 Run Differential
  • Scored 6.2 runs/Game

Vs everyone else

  • 66-58 record
  • +7 Run Differential
  • Scored 4.0 runs/game



This felt like the Packers of 2012 or 13 that still mopped up the NFC Central but then got waxed come playoff time vs the Niners.

And like several of the Packers years, I'm sitting here thinking that if they don't do something to improve the offense, they will have wasted the best pitching staff they have ever had.

Last edited by Timpranillo

The mistake CC made was playing Yelich.  1-21 with a seeing eye single!  His defense is now worse than his hitting.  Why not play Taylor?

This team was damaged in 2019 when an MVP hurt his knee and was out in playoffs.  But was hurt even more when he showed up the next 2 years and took up a lineup spot.  Send him to Loudres or Iowa to get back to being an MVP and this was and will be a world series team.

Yelich wasn't 1-21. He was 3/15. And again, Yelich wasn't the only one that sucked. Everyone other than Tellez sucked.  Who was gonna replace Yelich and make any difference?

Wong: 1-15 (.067/.176/.067)
Adames: 5-17 (.294/.294/.353)
Yelich: 3-15 (.200/.294/.200)
Garcia: 2-15 (.133/.188/.133)
Cain: 3-13 (.231/.286/.231)
Urias: 2-9 (.222/.417/.222)

I'm not sure there's anything CC could have changed here that makes a meaningful difference on offense. The thing I'd possibly argue is maybe going to Woodruff in the 5th yesterday is about the only thing in my mind.

@Timpranillo posted:

Yelich wasn't 1-21. He was 3/15. And again, Yelich wasn't the only one that sucked. Everyone other than Tellez sucked.  Who was gonna replace Yelich and make any difference?

Wong: 1-15 (.067/.176/.067)
Adames: 5-17 (.294/.294/.353)
Yelich: 3-15 (.200/.294/.200)
Garcia: 2-15 (.133/.188/.133)
Cain: 3-13 (.231/.286/.231)
Urias: 2-9 (.222/.417/.222)

I'm not sure there's anything CC could have changed here that makes a meaningful difference on offense. The thing I'd possibly argue is maybe going to Woodruff in the 5th yesterday is about the only thing in my mind.

And sticking with Woody in the 8th.  Doesn’t mean the outcome would have changed but who knows.

My sincere apology on fake news.  Saw a sidelight referencing 0-17 for Yelich during game yesterday. 

Was he alone at underachieving, certainly not.  But when this franchise hitched their wagon long term financially to Yelich I feel an explanation for his sudden suckage no more than the ink on the check dried. 

Teams need leaders to perform to win championships.  Freeman did.  Our guy didn't and hasn't for 2 years.

Have a nice day

@Timpranillo posted:

Yelich wasn't 1-21. He was 3/15. And again, Yelich wasn't the only one that sucked. Everyone other than Tellez sucked.  Who was gonna replace Yelich and make any difference?

Wong: 1-15 (.067/.176/.067)
Adames: 5-17 (.294/.294/.353)
Yelich: 3-15 (.200/.294/.200)
Garcia: 2-15 (.133/.188/.133)
Cain: 3-13 (.231/.286/.231)
Urias: 2-9 (.222/.417/.222)

I'm not sure there's anything CC could have changed here that makes a meaningful difference on offense. The thing I'd possibly argue is maybe going to Woodruff in the 5th yesterday is about the only thing in my mind.

Not starting Burnes was the biggest mistake and then going to Strickland when you replaced Lauer. Why not Boxburger there? As someone said yesterday, that's where losing Suter really hurt. In CC's defense, he was dealt a weak hand because of injuries over the last 2 weeks. Instead of Suter and D. Williams, we got Ashby and Strickland. I really like Ashby's potential, but he's not the guy you wanted out there in an elimination game at this point in his career.

I will say that I'd have made sure Freeman didn't beat me with one swing, even with Hader on the mound for a lefty vs. lefty matchup. He should not have seen a pitch he could drive the entire at-bat, and they should have been much more careful on the first pitch because that's oftentimes the only good pitch hitters get from Hader. Having said that, it's still hard to criticize CC on that one. At least he lost with his best option on the mound against their best player.

Adames played well overall.

CC made the right decisions playing Tellez and Urias over Escobar, but it would have been ideal to get Escobar's bat out there more often. He was 3 for 10 in the series. However, they would have had to sit Wong.

In the end, the biggest problems were Wong not getting on base in front of Adames and Garcia and Yelich blowing multiple chances over the course of multiple games to drive in some runs with guys on. It's also that the Braves didn't fear him at all. In 2018-19, just the situation that he was coming to the plate with guys on would have made the opposing picture on edge making it more likely he'd hang a pitch for Yelich to drive (probably like Hader with Freeman). If you know the worst that is going to happen is a sharp ground ball, it's a lot easier to pitch to anyone.

Last edited by MichiganPacker2
@Cheezers posted:

Another weird thing is that if Hader had a clean 8th then he would have either batted in the 9th or been done.  No double-switch when he came in so his spot led off the 9th.

Yes. It must have been going to be Boxburger. The problem was that the double switch to make would have been for Cain. JBJ is almost as good a defender as Cain and Cain had made the last out of the top of the 8th. Put Hader in for Cain and JBJ in to lead off the next inning. The problem was, of course, that you might have been better leaving Woodruff in for the 8th and letting him hit than letting JBJ hit.

@RatPack posted:

The mistake CC made was playing Yelich.  1-21 with a seeing eye single!  His defense is now worse than his hitting.  Why not play Taylor?

This team was damaged in 2019 when an MVP hurt his knee and was out in playoffs.  But was hurt even more when he showed up the next 2 years and took up a lineup spot.  Send him to Loudres or Iowa to get back to being an MVP and this was and will be a world series team.

His defense was very good in this series. He had multiple outfield assists and saved some runs.

The mistake wasn't playing him. It was hitting him 3rd in the lineup. His OBP during the year was pretty decent and even in the series he was at 294. In his current form, he's a guy that takes a lot of pitches and his hits are generally hard ground balls that get by the infielders. Once he's on base, he's still a great baserunner. He's more of a slap-hitting leadoff hitter now than a power guy.

The problem is going forward is that he's getting paid to be a superstar and small market teams can't miss on those types of guys. He's being paid to be the 2020s equivalent of Paul Molitor and instead he's Pat Listach.

Not starting Burnes was the biggest mistake and then going to Strickland when you replaced Lauer. Why not Boxburger there? As someone said yesterday, that's where losing Suter really hurt.

He had to go to Strickland. Boxberger wasn't properly warmed up yet.

I will say that I'd have made sure Freeman didn't beat me with one swing, even with Hader on the mound for a lefty vs. lefty matchup. He should not have seen a pitch he could drive the entire at-bat, and they should have been much more careful on the first pitch because that's oftentimes the only good pitch hitters get from Hader. Having said that, it's still hard to criticize CC on that one. At least he lost with his best option on the mound against their best player.

Agree with this totally.

Adames played well overall.

CC made the right decisions playing Tellez and Urias over Escobar, but it would have been ideal to get Escobar's bat out there more often. He was 3 for 10 in the series. However, they would have had to sit Wong.

CC would have been better off using Escobar in left and benching Yelich.  Escobar could have made the same defensive plays Yelich did.

In the end, the biggest problems were Wong not getting on base in front of Adames and Garcia and Yelich blowing multiple chances over the course of multiple games to drive in some runs with guys on. It's also that the Braves didn't fear him at all. In 2018-19, just the situation that he was coming to the plate with guys on would have made the opposing picture on edge making it more likely he'd hang a pitch for Yelich to drive (probably like Hader with Freeman). If you know the worst that is going to happen is a sharp ground ball, it's a lot easier to pitch to anyone.

As I said yesterday, the Brewer hitters just showed no patience at the plate with runners on base. They failed to work the count in their favor.

Just one more post about starting Lauer vs. Burnes.   Over the last 15 games Lauer had a better ERA.  And when it came to hitting they both had identicle .154 BA over the complete season.   Both had 3 BB and when you consider Burnes had twice as many at bats they had almost the same strike out rate, Burnes with 26, Lauer with 15.   But when it comes to OPS Lauer was the leader,  .527 to .354.   So when considering all the stats Lauer was the better starter.

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