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Lackey and Arrieta are free agents.  I think there's a good chance they both are gone. Adding Quintana helps a bit to offset that issue but they gave up a lot to get him including dealing their best prospect and likely their second best prospect.   

In their deal for Wilson they gave up Candelario who was either their 2nd or 3rd best prospect and Paredes isn't a slouch either as he's a top 5 guy for the Cubs. 

What is working in Chicago's favor is the contracts of guys like Russell and Bryant are dirt cheap although not sure how arbitration will view that situation. I'm sure their agent (Boras) will exert his influence as he doesn't run a charity organization. 

Theo is really good but their window isn't unlimited.  These recent deals indicate that they are all in and trying to win by 2020 or 2021 when they will have to start paying guys the big money.  Maybe they can restock the minors pretty easily but it took them several years of sucking and some saavy deals to get there.  

I also wonder about the spending approach/payroll of the Cubs as it took a huge jump this year after averaging 100-110MM the last 5 years.   

They have a damn good team but I think Stearns has the magic eye and will get this team to a point to compete for this division and the NL.   The only risk is him getting plucked by another team so Brewers damn well better take care of him. 

Last edited by Tschmack

Including 2016, explain what exactly is the problem with a team being "all in" over the course of 5-6 years.  Isn't that really what all good teams try to do??? I mean, can anyone realistically project "sustained success" for longer periods of time give free agency, injuries, etc??

They made two significant moves in the past month - Quintana and Wilson.  Neither are rentals and will be with the team next year (Wilson) and thru 2020 (Quintana). Those don't seem like desperation moves to me.  Candelario is an infielder and blocked for years at every position. Parades (was never Cubs 5th best prospect), Jimenez and Cease were all in Single A ball.  Lots can happen between then and the Bigs.  Time will tell, but probably not for several more years at least.

Regarding the Brewers and Stearns' "magic eye", what organizational aproach is he currently doing differently than what Theo has done twice.....or what will Stearns do differently in the future?

PackLandVA posted:

 

Regarding the Brewers and Stearns' "magic eye", what organizational aproach is he currently doing differently than what Theo has done twice.....or what will Stearns do differently in the future?

Realistically, I would wager Stearns and Epstein are probably very similar in their thinking about building a club. I'd say they both value building a deep farm system focused a bit stronger on the position player side of the house. I'd say they look beyond the old school thinking and embrace data as much as anyone.  

Epstein has many luxuries that Stearns will never have. Unlimited budgets and the option of a bad contract not crippling the franchise for a long time at the top of that list.  Where I think they are forced to diverge widely is that Epstein can be very focused on putting the strength of the org development on offense and position players while being able to buy proven SP whenever they like. Hence, they will have much wider windows of opportunity, as they can easily make the 1-2 player moves required to go "all in" and go from playoff team to WS favorite. Because Stearns can't reasonably go get proven SP on the FA market, he's forced to have a much wider net for the farm system and as the likelihood of resigning a Lester should they ever draft one (LOL oh I crack myself up sometimes) is basically zero, he has a smaller window to bring all of those elements together to make a run. 

Stearns is relegated to hoping to finding a Guerra like guy from time to time on the bargain heap, whereas the Cubs can go get the Lester's of the world because they are basically unlimited in budget.  And, while both clubs theoretically can go make deals for a Quintana at the deadline, Chicago has a much larger margin of error for these moves. 

If Stearns and Esptein were switched, I'd imagine both clubs would be run in pretty much the fashion you see today.

I will say, I think the praise of the Brewers farm system we've seen in BA and other places is premature, as there does not appear to be much in the system that looks like above average MLB talent yet. Things change, I get it, but the talent looks thin at best thus far and the ones everyone was pointing to last year have been less than stellar... There is a long history of Epstein drafting and it's pretty damn good. Stearns will need to prove himself in that area, and I hope he will.  Frankly, he has to if the Brewers hope to compete. 

CaPackFan makes great points. Epstein is a Hall of Fame GM if he quits tomorrow. While running teams he ended 194 years of title droughts in Boston and for the Cubs. He has a huge budget and  no pressure for the rest of his career. He can take risks most other GMs can't. If Stearns ends up being even a fraction as good as Theo, I think we'd all take it. 

I'm glad the wild card is available. If you get in and get hot, you always have a chance. I think the Cubs may win the next 4-5 division titles. 

CAPackFan95 posted:

There is a long history of Epstein drafting and it's pretty damn good. Stearns will need to prove himself in that area, and I hope he will.  Frankly, he has to if the Brewers hope to compete. 

I think Ray and Hiura are going to be monsters, I really do. Hiura's stroke is lightning- like Molitor lightning. Brinson, Ray, Phillips, Hiura... pretty good group in 2020 right there. 

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