Everybody wants to see Giannis vs. The Slim Reaper. I know I do.
I know there's talk about the Bucks winning 70 games but I would give it less than 10% chance that could happen. The toughest part of their schedule is coming up and I think expecting 4 losses or less is probably a tall order. Heck, just the one 5 game stretch with games at Miami, at Lakers, at Denver, at Phoenix with a home game vs. Indy mixed in, I could see a couple losses just in that stretch alone. Plus they have 3 more games with Toronto, 2 vs. Philly, 1 road game at Dallas, and 2 more games vs. Boston.
If they do somehow get 70 wins they'll have earned it, that's a lot of tough games coming up.
fightphoe93 posted:I know there's talk about the Bucks winning 70 games but I would give it less than 10% chance that could happen. The toughest part of their schedule is coming up and I think expecting 4 losses or less is probably a tall order. Heck, just the one 5 game stretch with games at Miami, at Lakers, at Denver, at Phoenix with a home game vs. Indy mixed in, I could see a couple losses just in that stretch alone. Plus they have 3 more games with Toronto, 2 vs. Philly, 1 road game at Dallas, and 2 more games vs. Boston.
If they do somehow get 70 wins they'll have earned it, that's a lot of tough games coming up.
If you knew you were going to win a title for sure, then 70 is more important. Otherwise, no one is really going to care if the Bucks win 70 or play guys from their G league team and lose their next 25 games in a row to go into the playoffs as a 6 seed.
Music City posted:The key to the title hopes rest on two players- Middleton and Bledsoe. If they get going forward what they got last night, they can run this roster back for the length of Bledsoe’s contract and expect greatness.
Next year, two teams are going to be back in the ring- Golden State and Brooklyn. The Bucks must get their title pedigree this year. It’s theirs to take.
Agreed with one additional key - Giannis' FT shooting.
In the 3 close losses in the ECF last year (Games 3, 5, and 6), Giannis was 11 for 26 from the line.
He was 2 for 7 in Game 3 during regulation and that went OT.
I believe Games 5 and 6 were one possessions games within the last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter.
If he hits 75% of his FTs in 2 of those games, the Bucks are likely defending champs right now.
MichiganPacker2 posted:To turn those 9 guys from the opening roster two seasons ago and the salary cap mess associated with that into what for the following net cost is unbelievable.
Malcolm Brogdon, one first round pick, and 2 second round picks. The remaining first round pick is next year's. If Giannis stays that's not going be better than the late 20s.
Can you believe that Leuer, Hawes, and Larry friggin Sanders will cost the Bucks $7M in cap space next year (which will be the last for Leuer and Hawes while Sanders will still have 2 more year at $1.8M)? That’s Ilyasova (who will also be off the books after 2021)- the Bucks will have $13-14M in cap space to fill a role player slot or extend Divincenzo if they’re so inclined by then.
The cap is not growing- it’s expected to reduce a bit next year. The Bucks will go into the tax re-signing Giannis if they cannot rid themselves of the dead money. The CBA runs through 23-24, which if Giannis extends this summer will get the Bucks through 2 years of that contract. I am sure Saratsis is factoring while they mull the extension offer from the Bucks this summer. That little bit of uncertainty could be a monkey wrench...
Music City posted:MichiganPacker2 posted:To turn those 9 guys from the opening roster two seasons ago and the salary cap mess associated with that into what for the following net cost is unbelievable.
Malcolm Brogdon, one first round pick, and 2 second round picks. The remaining first round pick is next year's. If Giannis stays that's not going be better than the late 20s.
Can you believe that Leuer, Hawes, and Larry friggin Sanders will cost the Bucks $7M in cap space next year (which will be the last for Leuer and Hawes while Sanders will still have 2 more year at $1.8M)? That’s Ilyasova (who will also be off the books after 2021)- the Bucks will have $13-14M in cap space to fill a role player slot or extend Divincenzo if they’re so inclined by then.
The cap is not growing- it’s expected to reduce a bit next year. The Bucks will go into the tax re-signing Giannis if they cannot rid themselves of the dead money. The CBA runs through 23-24, which if Giannis extends this summer will get the Bucks through 2 years of that contract. I am sure Saratsis is factoring while they mull the extension offer from the Bucks this summer. That little bit of uncertainty could be a monkey wrench...
Why would that be any more of a monkey wrench for the Bucks than anyone else?
As I've said before, if Giannis leaves Milwaukee because he believes he can't win a title with what he has around him, he's in some ways worse than Durant, James, Kawhi, etc.
There wasn't a wall of Raptors in front of him when he started airballing FTs in the ECFs. If he shoots 5 of 7 from the FT in Game 3 (instead of 2 for 7) that's the difference (the game went to OT). In the 7 previous games in the playoffs that were "pressure" games (I don't count the Pistons series), he went 45 for 65 and shot 71%. All of sudden he goes on the road to Toronto and Drake bothers him and he becomes Shaq at the line?
Middleton has been surprisingly good this year and he's a 45% career 3 point shooter in the playoffs. At worst, he's the guy that other team can't let beat them from 3. Bledsoe may struggle, but they have Donte D. to give them some minutes there they didn't last year. The key for the playoffs may end up being when Giannis has to shoot 18-20 FTs a game when the defenses go "Jordan Rules" on him in the playoffs. He can't be putting up 11-20 or 10-23 type performances at the line.
There is going to be a time when he has to close out a game at the line. That's what may be the difference between a Finals trip and a loss to the Raptors/Celtics/Heat/Sixers.
Music City posted:MichiganPacker2 posted:To turn those 9 guys from the opening roster two seasons ago and the salary cap mess associated with that into what for the following net cost is unbelievable.
Malcolm Brogdon, one first round pick, and 2 second round picks. The remaining first round pick is next year's. If Giannis stays that's not going be better than the late 20s.
Can you believe that Leuer, Hawes, and Larry friggin Sanders will cost the Bucks $7M in cap space next year (which will be the last for Leuer and Hawes while Sanders will still have 2 more year at $1.8M)? That’s Ilyasova (who will also be off the books after 2021)- the Bucks will have $13-14M in cap space to fill a role player slot or extend Divincenzo if they’re so inclined by then.
The cap is not growing- it’s expected to reduce a bit next year. The Bucks will go into the tax re-signing Giannis if they cannot rid themselves of the dead money. The CBA runs through 23-24, which if Giannis extends this summer will get the Bucks through 2 years of that contract. I am sure Saratsis is factoring while they mull the extension offer from the Bucks this summer. That little bit of uncertainty could be a monkey wrench...
It looks like Ersan can come off the books this summer.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/mi...ersan-ilyasova-6341/
Contract Notes:
2020 non-guaranteed, fully if not waived on or before two days following 2020 NBA Draft, 06/27/2020 (@EricPincus)