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I like the way they finished. They didn’t rattle- and actually put up a stout defensive effort. Craig now getting crunch time run, and they go with Giannis at the 5. This is the lineup that they will use in the playoffs, give or take a matchup. And Middleton initiates the offense.

Holiday with winning plays in the final 2 key possessions- dribble drive to draw defense to get Middleton and open look for 3, and then he penetrates and breaks Siakam’s ankles and getting an open layup.

Could Bud finally be realizing the importance of having defenders on the floor in crunch time, and using Giannis as the screener and get everyone moving around him? One can dream.

And would someone on this team learn how to throw a fucking lob??? 2 on 1 Giannis/Divincenzo should not have Divincenzo  driving into the lane for a foul and two shots. It should be a lob and a dunk. EVERY FUCKING TIME.

That’s true.  One issue is Craig isn’t a great FT shooter, but you can’t have it all.  He’s an elite perimeter defender and just a general pain in the ass to opposing teams due to his energy and prowess and tenacity.  Since he’s missed basically the entire season up to this point, I’m hoping he continues to harass the opposition especially in crunch time.  

Last edited by Tschmack

I think you're right that the closing lineup is going to include Giannis, Middleton, Holiday, and Craig. The interesting thing will be who the 5th guy is. Do you go with DDV for on-ball defense or do you go with Portis? Portis has not shown to be a great defender in his career, but he's 6'10" and athletic. If a game comes down to a guy taking a 3 pointer to beat you, do you want a 6'10" guy like Portis going out to challenge or a 6'4" DDV?

The playoff matchups are going to be fascinating. Last year, their closing guys against small-ball lineups were some combination of Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe, Hill, Marvin Williams, and DDV.

Now it look like it may be Giannis, Middleton, Holiday, Craig, Portis, and DDV.

Holiday over Bledsoe is a huge upgrade. Not just on offense, but as good a defender as Bledsoe is on-ball, Holiday might be one of the best guards defending against bigger post-players I've ever seen. Portis is a big upgrade over Marvin Williams/Ilyasova.

Other than how Giannis progresses on FTs and reading halfcourt defenses in the 4th quarter, the biggest variable in terms of post-season success is how Bud replaces the minutes Hill got. If you ranked guys on their offensive ability I'd put it at something like this (this is halfcourt offense and halfcourt defense against small-ball lineups).

Can Torrey Craig give you enough offense to be able to put him on the court with Giannis in the 4th or is he just going clog things up like Bledsoe did? Forbes and Augustin are guys whose defensive liabilities make it difficult to close games with. Right now, Connaughton is the best combination in terms of not being a complete liability on either end, but he's not great at anything. He's a poor man's version of George Hill.

Giannis Offense B/Defense A+

Middleton A/B+

Holiday A-/A

Lopez B/C-

DDV C+/B



Craig D+/A

Portis B+/C+

Forbes B-/D

Augustin B-/D-

Connaughton C+/C+

Bledsoe D/A

Hill B/B

I still wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a trade.  Nwora is a good up and coming player which makes DJW completely expendable.  You could flip him for either another big or another swing player that can shoot and defend.  

I feel pretty good about the lineup and something we should remember is at least the first half of the season the goal is to get these guys into playing shape and figure out lineups.  So many teams have new players or new coaches that it will take time for it all to mesh. I also think in another month or so we should have a better sense of what teams are for real (I’m looking at you Cavs and Hawks and Knicks) and which teams will turn it on (I’m looking at you Heat and Raptors and Mavericks).  

To me, the biggest story line so far this season isn’t the Jazz or Sixers, it’s the fact that Miami is 6-12 and honestly their record doesn’t reflect just how poorly they’ve played.  In their defense, they have had a pretty challenging schedule so far having played the Bucks twice, Nets twice, Philly twice, Boston twice, and Dallas, Denver, and the LAC.  So 11 of their 18 games have been against decent competition.  It doesn’t get any easier for them having to head west in 2 weeks to play on the road in Utah, LA (twice), and GS.   Granted, they play Charlotte and Washington (twice) and the NYK (twice) but by February 20th they could be something like 13-17 at that point.  

@Tschmack posted:

I still wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a trade.  Nwora is a good up and coming player which makes DJW completely expendable.  You could flip him for either another big or another swing player that can shoot and defend.  

I feel pretty good about the lineup and something we should remember is at least the first half of the season the goal is to get these guys into playing shape and figure out lineups.  So many teams have new players or new coaches that it will take time for it all to mesh. I also think in another month or so we should have a better sense of what teams are for real (I’m looking at you Cavs and Hawks and Knicks) and which teams will turn it on (I’m looking at you Heat and Raptors and Mavericks).  

To me, the biggest story line so far this season isn’t the Jazz or Sixers, it’s the fact that Miami is 6-12 and honestly their record doesn’t reflect just how poorly they’ve played.  In their defense, they have had a pretty challenging schedule so far having played the Bucks twice, Nets twice, Philly twice, Boston twice, and Dallas, Denver, and the LAC.  So 11 of their 18 games have been against decent competition.  It doesn’t get any easier for them having to head west in 2 weeks to play on the road in Utah, LA (twice), and GS.   Granted, they play Charlotte and Washington (twice) and the NYK (twice) but by February 20th they could be something like 13-17 at that point.  

Jimmy Butler's barely played this year, which is the Heat's biggest problem right now. Even when he comes back, I don't think they'll catch lightning in a bottle as they did during the bubble last year. Butler also morphed into Michael Jordan in some playoff games last year. He's good, but I'd be surprised if we see a stretch from him like that again. The other thing with Butler is he's a guy that obviously plays hard, but if he doesn't like the situation he becomes a locker room cancer pretty quickly. I don't think that will happen yet in Miami, but it's looming in a year or two.

The other problem the Heat (and the Raptors for that matter) have is they seemed to been planning for the 2021 summer of Giannis rather than optimize their roster for this year. The signing of Avery Bradley didn't make any sense (instead of trying to retain Crowder). They already have a bunch of guards (Kendrick Nunn is a similar player). They prioritized keeping cap space open.

Also, Herro has been out for a while, but he's played pretty poorly this year when he was there (28% from 3) and he's a defensive liability. He will be an interesting one to watch over the upcoming years. He's obviously got offensive skills and the self-confidence you need to succeed in the NBA. However, he gives me some vibes of a guy that might become difficult to coach. Miami is a good place for him, but if he ends up somewhere else in a trade he could quickly morph into a guy that wants to jack up a lot of questionable shots on a poor team.

@Tschmack posted:

I still wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a trade.  Nwora is a good up and coming player which makes DJW completely expendable.  You could flip him for either another big or another swing player that can shoot and defend.  



DJ Wilson is completely expendable, but why would anyone want him?

If you are able to move him for something, the decision of whether to target a backup 5 ( like Robin Lopez) or a more of a 3 and D player (like George Hill) will be an interesting decision.

If the only consideration is how you match up with the Sixers, the Bucks need someone like Robin Lopez. Embiid is what drives them and you need a guy that can at least bother him down low to back up Brook. Putting Giannis on him almost guarantees foul trouble for Giannis.

If you are worried about matchups with the Celtics or Nets, you need to load up on 3 and D guys and Brook may be off the floor in many games.

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