Game 7 Milwaukee vs. Boston

I would not fall into the trap of simply running it back and they are automatic favorites.  Boston exposed a weakness and that was Lopez can be exploited by smaller, more active bigs (mostly forwards) that can shoot and then switch on D.  

Teams will spread you out and take a bunch of 3s.  To some extent, Dallas does the same thing and Phoenix has a traditional big man in Ayton that got exposed a similar way in that series.

The game is evolving into a 3 and D league.  If you can shoot, and at least make an effort defensively, you can win a lot of games.  

With Middleton they have an elite 3 and D guy.  Jaylen Brown and to a lesser extent Jason Tatum are the same, although Tatum is a better offensive player and Middleton is a better rebounder and defender.

While Pat C and Portis aren’t elite defenders, they fit more of the new age lineup I am talking about.  The problem is they aren’t 30 minute a night guys.  Not in the playoffs.

That’s where a guy like Harrison Barnes has a lot of appeal.  You play Giannis at the 5, Barnes plays the 4, Middleton the 3, and switch out Pat C and Wes Matthews (if he returns) at the 2.  Obviously Holiday is the 1 guard.  Portis can come off the bench at the 4 or 5.  You find another guard in the draft and see if you can lure in another big or PF.

@Boris posted:

After they lost Game 6

You guys think Boston is beating Miami?? I don't think so...Guess we'll see.

If Smart misses significant time, that’s a whole other story.

@Tschmack posted:

I would not fall into the trap of simply running it back and they are automatic favorites.  Boston exposed a weakness and that was Lopez can be exploited by smaller, more active bigs (mostly forwards) that can shoot and then switch on D.  

Teams will spread you out and take a bunch of 3s.  To some extent, Dallas does the same thing and Phoenix has a traditional big man in Ayton that got exposed a similar way in that series.

The game is evolving into a 3 and D league.  If you can shoot, and at least make an effort defensively, you can win a lot of games.  

With Middleton they have an elite 3 and D guy.  Jaylen Brown and to a lesser extent Jason Tatum are the same, although Tatum is a better offensive player and Middleton is a better rebounder and defender.

While Pat C and Portis aren’t elite defenders, they fit more of the new age lineup I am talking about.  The problem is they aren’t 30 minute a night guys.  Not in the playoffs.

That’s where a guy like Harrison Barnes has a lot of appeal.  You play Giannis at the 5, Barnes plays the 4, Middleton the 3, and switch out Pat C and Wes Matthews (if he returns) at the 2.  Obviously Holiday is the 1 guard.  Portis can come off the bench at the 4 or 5.  You find another guard in the draft and see if you can lure in another big or PF.

Obviously we'll never find out, but it would have been interesting to see what Bud would have done in a series with Warriors. If he would have played drop with Lopez against Curry, Klay, Poole, Wiggins, and Draymond the Warriors might have made 30 threes a game.

Dallas also destroyed them later in the season.  I think it would have been ugly with Golden State.  

The drop strategy worked great against Chicago this year and Phoenix in the Finals, but their best offensive players (Booker and Derozan) are more mid range jump shooting guys.  Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum are decent 3pt shooters and except for game 1 they killed the Bucks from long range.  

Boston maybe caught a break with Robert Williams getting hurt because he can’t shoot.  Horford had a huge game 4 and Grant Williams had big games 2 and 7 shooting the 3.  If Robert Williams is healthy the entire series it’s very likely Horford and Grant Williams don’t see as many minutes and get as many touches and shots.

Given the playoff performances of 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 you really have to start to question Bud’s defensive strategy.  Yes, they didn’t have Holiday in 2019 or 2020 or Middleton against Boston this year but let’s be real they give up way too many 3s.  Many of those 3s were uncontested.  

Last year Bud was an idot until he wasn't. Now he is an idot again. Glad you guys are so much smarter than a NBA Champion coach.

@ammo posted:

Last year Bud was an idot until he wasn't. Now he is an idot again. Glad you guys are so much smarter than a NBA Champion coach.

I think they would have been the favorite to win another title if Middleton had not gotten hurt. It's just whether the NBA is adapting in a way that makes the drop defense less likely to be successful against good teams. The main principles are to prevent teams from getting shots at the rim, try to keep the best opposing players from taking open 3s, and conceding open 3s to the lesser players.

I think Bud is an excellent coach that has been successful by using a system that works extremely well in the regular season and has already won them a title. He got to a Eastern Conference Finals with the Hawks when his leading scorer was Paul Millsap. His rotation was Millsap, Horford, Korver, Carroll, Schroder, and Teague. There is no debate the guy can coach.

The discussion is now whether the drop defense system he is using is less likely to win in the playoffs in the future. If you have access to it, here's a great article that talks about this in an analytical manner. As teams get better and better at shooting the three (especially as rotations shrink in the playoffs), where is the tipping point where you make the decision to move away from it.

https://theathletic.com/331419...uns-bucks-spaceball/

I don't think Tschmack and I are saying Bud is an idiot. We are just debating the concept of this defense (in less informed ways than Bud and the rest of the Bucks' staff is likely having similar conversations right now). Also, there is no question that if Boston won by having their 3rd and 4th options get hot from three in various games that the Warriors were even more likely to light them up given their collection of three point shooters (and the lack of almost any paint scoring by the Warriors makes the drop defense much less useful).

Jason Kidd truly did some idiotic things when he coached the Bucks (instructing players to miss FTs with under 2 seconds left when they were up by 3 to prevent the chance of a 4 point play comes to mind). Now he has Doncic and he's "smart." Bud is light years ahead of Kidd in terms of just coaching acumen.

First off, much like the NFL, or MLB, or any other organized sport, teams will adapt and adjust or die.

The reality is basketball today - at any level - revolves around shooting and especially 3pt shooting.

It makes sense - a 3pt shot is worth more than a 2pt shot and if you take a high volume of them and made a modest amount, say 15-20 per game, you are already halfway to 100 points.

It takes so much more effort to hit a high percentage of 2 point shots because unless you get out a ton in transition most are contested.  In the playoffs, when they pace slows, you naturally have less opportunities in the half court to get layups and other easy shots around the rim.

It’s also a great strategy to minimize or neutralize traditional big men that defend the paint.    Look no further than Phoenix and Utah and Milwaukee.  Gobert and Ayton and Lopez aren’t quick enough to defend the perimeter against smaller, more athletic wings or forwards.