Bill from Bloomfield Hills, MIBaseball advance metrics have totally changed pitcher usage, going for home runs and other elements of the game. I keep seeing analytics that say a football team comes out ahead by going for it on every fourth down no matter the down/distance/field position, and perhaps going for two points most every time. If those things happened, do you think it would be good for the game and would you enjoy games more?
Eliminating decisions and strategy wouldn’t help me enjoy the games more, but to each his own. I’ve been intrigued by the fourth-down analytics, because it’ll never sit right with me that going for it on fourth-and-10 from your own 20 is the “best” move, when failure hands the opponent three sure points and a great chance at seven (or eight). Go for it more around midfield? Sure, I get it. But the analytics say to do it all the time, and to me, the biggest thing they don’t take into account is momentum. Yes, it’s an ethereal concept, but I believe it exists in an emotionally charged game like football. I’ve seen it too often to be persuaded otherwise, and I think a fourth-down stop deep in one’s territory that gifts a field goal or touchdown to the opponent means more than just the points. That’s why, even as someone who loves and understands math, I don’t buy the fourth-down analytics in their pure form and probably never will.
I think the flaw in the logic of "going for it" every 4th down is that every other team will continue to play the same way they always have when you change up your strategy. I do believe that NFL coaches are overly conservative with 4th down, but since everyone is conservative, it really is a wash. As soon as you switch it up just the same and the advantage (if there is one) is gone.
This question reminded me of how Paul Chryst punts from his own side of the field all the time, which takes me to this article. Thanks to this guys work (and his call on "availability heuristic" is spot on), you can see the calls on punts were, in general, the right call. Doesn't make some of those punts (FROM YOUR OWN 32!!!!) horribly frustrating, even if your kicker can barely walk.
