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Some statements made about the Packers at wide receiver, if true, require that in a big way Gutey does not know what the hell he is doing.  What follows is my reasoning and I look forward to thoughts/opinions.

One post I saw said that we have need at WR as none have been selected in an early round in a while.  Others have expressed the same general idea.  We have no legit #2 and we need to target wide receiver.

But, how do such statements impact what Gutey did with the draft the year before last?

He drafted WR's in rounds 4, 5, and 6.  If the consensus is that wideouts drafted that late cannot be bonafide #1 or #2 wideouts, he absolutely wasted three draft choices.

I cannot see that as feasible.  What is the alternative?  He hoped to get one or two legit #3's?

The only possibility I see that can justify the selections made are that our GM understands that picking 3 receivers at those rounds will generally return at least one #1 or #2 wideout and possibly in addition one who is a #2 or #3.

I see no alternative to this assuming he knows what he is doing.

Generally, receivers do not blossom until their second year.  With receivers drafted at rounds 4-6, I think it is more likely such a receiver will not blossom his first year.  As an example, he may have come from a smaller program and be in need of more training (MVS).

If this is true, this means the jury must be out.  We cannot possibly know yet if the selections were a bust or not and by bust I mean that none of them ever qualifies as a solid #2 at least.

MVS shows possibility and I guess ESB does as well though his progress is of course slowed by injury.

Unless Gutey does not know what he is doing to the extent of throwing away three draft choices (because, after all, a good receiver must be drafted higher, some say), I think the only thing that makes sense is a wait and see approach.

Second year returns must be in and assuming Gute knew what he was doing with those selections and assuming he was not real unlucky with his picks, we will be just fine.  MVS will at worst be a solid #2 and EQB may as well.

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Graham, MVS and Allison are competent contributors in the passing game. Gute had positions, like OLB, that had very few to no competent players at when he took over. Gotta prioritize the rebuild, picking a WR high just wasn't a bad enough need to overshadow OLB, CB, and S in the draft and OLB, S, and OL in FA. I expect, now that we're solid at almost all those positions that WR will be up for a refresh in the 2020 draft. I think OT and CB (depending on how King and Jackson develop) are bigger needs, but WR should definitely be in the discussion for R1 or R2. 2020 will be a STACKED year at WR, so I have no doubt we will come out of the draft with a starter opposite Adams.  

Last edited by Grave Digger

Phaedrus, no disrespect but I totally disagree that Gute doesn't know what he is doing.  The roster he inherited lacked depth everywhere and it was in desperate need of geting help on the defensive side of the ball.   I would bet that on his way to early draft board WR is listed pretty high on the priority list.  The dude is aggressive and we are just going to have to be patient sometimes.  It sucks I agree but he can't build it all at once.

 

The Heckler posted:

Phaedrus, no disrespect but I totally disagree that Gute doesn't know what he is doing.  The roster he inherited lacked depth everywhere and it was in desperate need of geting help on the defensive side of the ball.   I would bet that on his way to early draft board WR is listed pretty high on the priority list.  The dude is aggressive and we are just going to have to be patient sometimes.  It sucks I agree but he can't build it all at once.

 

Hey Heckler,

I am on the side of believing he does know what he is doing.  My point was that if his strategy is that he is pretty sure none of the 3 WR's would amount to much (at least one being at least a 2), THEN it's poor use of draft.

I'm on record as saying they need to invest some draft capital to get a complement for Adams - I think they really need a slot receiver in the mold of what a healthy Cobb would be.

However, I think it may be less important to try to have high-level draft picks at WR in the MLF offense compared to MM. MM relied on guys to win 1 x 1 matchups and didn't really scheme guys open. That works when you invest high round picks at WR and have a lot of depth to force the dime and  nickel CBs to cover guys who are more physically talented (Nelson, Jennings, and Cobb were all round 2 and James Jones and Finley were round 3). Driver was a 7th rounder, but mainly because he was more of a track guy in college. He was a tremendous athlete that had to learn how to play football. Driver jumped 7'6" in the high jump. The guys we have now behind Adams are not the athletic freak that Driver was,  but if you scheme guys open better you can get by with low and mid-round guys. 

As long as Gute sticks to his board and doesn't draft guys to high because of need, I think he'll do well. 

 

Boris posted:

It's a high priority to address today. 

Hopefully 1 or 2 of the young guys can step up. 

Yup. Have high hopes for MVS to step up his game. As for the 3, 4, 5 ... seem ok there. 

As with the rest of the new offense, will probably take a few weeks to settle in ....and playing tough defenses like the Bears and Minny in wk 1 and wk 2 doesn't expedite the process. 

Seeing Allan Robinson the other night reminded me of when he chose the Bares over the Pack. Damn, he sure would be a nice second fiddle to Davante . 

El-Nuke-the-Hurricanes-Bong posted:
phaedrus posted:


He drafted WR's in rounds 4, 5, and 6.  If the consensus is that wideouts drafted that late cannot be bonafide #1 or #2 wideouts, he absolutely wasted three draft choices.



Where in thin air did you find this consensus?  

 

There are some later round guys who perform at WR, but usually they are top 3 round guys. And that's simply because it is so hard to find a guy who can run really fast, catch really well and is smart enough to pick up the pro passing game and can think on his feet a little.

But that's like any other skill position. The best QBs, CB's, pass rushers, and TEs are usually first three round guys. But you only need one later round guy to blossom to make a huge difference.

I like MVS. Size, speed and pretty good hands and from reports wants to be good. He's the anti -J'Mon Moore = not a head case. ESB showed some skill but doesn't have that speed.

And there is no such consensus ever. Otherwise 4,5,6 round would ever see a WR drafted. What should make you more upset is that Tyreek Hill was drafted 2 spots after Trevor Davis (not withstanding the child abuse stuff).

 

 

Unlike TT (most of the time), it doesn't seem like Gutekunst would be adverse to improving the quality of play at a position via free agency.  And I'm not talking about adding a top tier WR (that will cost a ton).  They already have an elite WR.  So he can certainly find quality proven pieces to compliment Davante.  So drafting at WR is not necessarily a must, regardless of how this year's #2s pan out.

Good breakdown by  Dusty All 22 on twitter of last week's 3rd downs that weren't converted.  He basically shows that even if AR hadn't been pressured and sacked, nobody was open to convert.  Not a good sign of "schemeing WR's open" by MLF.  I can only hope once the other parts of the offense start clicking, the passing lanes and coverage will start to open up.  But at this point it doesn't look like the pass will be setting up the run in any way.

https://twitter.com/All22Talk

I think part of the problem is the early down failures leading to 3rd and long.  Some of that is on AR not taking check downs or easy yards.  Some of it is on the run game not finding much room yet.  It was against a top D last week but the offense felt a lot like much of last season in that any ground gained felt like a real grind.  AR and MM's O had more success in the second half of last year's opener vs. the same D.

 

 

Smurfs on week one:

1. Ross - 158 yards

2. D. Jackson - 154 yards

3. M. Brown - 147 yards

4. J. Brown - 123 yards

5. C. Samuel - 114 yards

6. D. Amendola - 104 yards

7. J. Crowder - 99 yards

8. P. Dorsett - 94 yards

9. TY Hilton - 87 yards

10. E. Sanders - 86 yards

11. J. Edelman - 83 yards

12. O. Beckham - 71 yards

13. R. Cobb - 69 yards

Just under 1/2 of league's top 50 WR's for week one are under 6' tall. And they most definitely are not 1/2 of all starters. They overachieve because they get open way more often. They have an advantage in that they quicker in the space around their bodies, so they separate a higher percentage of the time. 

The Packers are being stupid. Why? Why revel in being moronic?

Years ago I said if a WR talent evaluator uses the word "upside", fire him. If he uses the words "ideal size", fire him. If he says a player would make a good slot WR, fire him. Go to the draft section of NFL.com. Those things are said a zillion times.

Troy Brown goes to the Marshall football reunions. He holds his hands way above his head. Why? To show Randy Moss what Super Bowl rings look like. 

Johnny Z posted:

Smurfs on week one:

1. Ross - 158 yards

2. D. Jackson - 154 yards

3. M. Brown - 147 yards

4. J. Brown - 123 yards

5. C. Samuel - 114 yards

6. D. Amendola - 104 yards

7. J. Crowder - 99 yards

8. P. Dorsett - 94 yards

9. TY Hilton - 87 yards

10. E. Sanders - 86 yards

11. J. Edelman - 83 yards

12. O. Beckham - 71 yards

13. R. Cobb - 69 yards



Wow. Great stats! 1 whole week of data!  Well, correction. 1 whole week of incomplete data. 

But, to placate this, of the top 10 WRs in yards in week one, 7 are >6'0". 1 of the 3 that were under 6, is 5'11.

But, hey, small sample size (NO PUN INTENDED!). Let's look at 2018 as a whole.

Of the top 10 WRs in terms of yards, again, 7 of them were over 6.

Why, it's almost like height has ZERO to do with anything, and you're just a guy looking for the data to confirm the argument you want, instead of, you know, looking at the data and then making an argument.

Johnny Z posted:

Smurfs on week one:

1. Ross - 158 yards



Just under 1/2 of league's top 50 WR's for week one are under 6' tall. And they most definitely are not 1/2 of all starters. They overachieve because they get open way more often. They have an advantage in that they quicker in the space around their bodies, so they separate a higher percentage of the time. 



Ah yes. John Ross, the shining example of how WRs under 6'0" overachieve. Clearly John Ross, 9th pick overall in 2017, has done nothing but overachieve his NFL career. Gets way open all the time! Quicker in space! Separation!  

What he's done his career clearly shows that. And by no means should one look at Sunday's game as a fluke because AJ Green is out and a defense focused on Tyler Boyd. Take a look!

2017 - 0 catches, 0 yards (I mean sure, Marvin Lewis said he wasn't ready to contribute, and only played him in 3 games, but what more would you expect from a top 10 pick? OVERACHIEVE)

2018 - 21 catches, 210 yards (He must have been separating so much from DBs that he ended up out of bounds or something! OVERACHIEVE)

Tell ya what, you can have overachieving smurf John Ross the rest of the year. I'll take 6'4" AJ Green.  Most receiving yards in 2019.  

$100 to the charity of the winners choice.  Should be a slam dunk for you right? I mean, it's not as simple as "Hey, good WRs are good", and the most important factor is whether or not a WR is under or over 6'0".  

Easiest $100 you've even made. Not only am I taking a dum dum 6'4" WR, but one that may not even play until week 4 or 5!  

You in? 

Grave Digger posted:
DH13 posted:

Not a good sign of "schemeing WR's open" by MLF.

Because that's only 50% of the story with how receivers get open. Players have to actually, ya know, play and get open. There's no magic trick that coaches do to get receivers open, all players are responsible for winning 1on1 battles. 

Scheming is 50%, Players playing is 50%. And the Bears D might have been the other 50% in the 1st game. - Yogi

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