Klay and KD aren’t going to come to Milwaukee.  Neither are Kyrie or Kahwi or Anthony Davis the other top free agents, and it has little to do with money. 

The Bucks can afford to pay but a lot of these players want to play in big markets.  I don’t disagree their chance to win a title would be enhanced with Giannis but honestly if the Clippers or Nets add two max guys they are instant contenders.  

The Crusher posted:

You could argue that Bledsoe versus Lowry AND Giannis' free throws cost us the series.  He's ours either way but the guy shit the bed in the ECF.  He shot 29% and  16% from 3.  It's a joke.

To me it's a real simple question.  Can you win with a starting guard who is shooting 16% from 3?  One video I saw of the wall defense Toronto played is that for the most part, the Raptors could blanket Giannis and defend the remaining 3 player's threes if they simply left Bledsoe alone behind the arc.

You can't shoot 16% from 3.  That is not viable.  Bud didn't sometimes reduce Bledsoe's minutes for nothing.  He reduced them for this very reason.  He was hoping reserves could do what Bledsoe could not.

Bledsoe’s primary job isn’t to shoot 3s, but to play in Bud’s system I think you need to have players that can keep you honest.  If he’s taking 5-6 attempts a game and if he’s only hitting 1-2 of those attempts that’s a problem.  

Thats my gripe with Bledsoe.  He’s not a good 3 point shooter.   He missed a lot of wide open looks and teams like Toronto and Boston (last year) were daring him to shoot.  

Quite frankly Giannis bailed them out in a number of situations and I know he will try to get better.  His outside shooting did get a lot better.   Bledsoe?   Not so much. 

 

Trade rumor I read online today 

Memphis deals Mike Conley to the Bucks the Jazz get Bledsoe and Memphis gets a draft pick and Dante Exum and Tony Snell and Grayson Allen. 

Conley is making 30MM the next couple of years so he’s not cheap but he’s an upgrade over Bledsoe and it allows the Bucks to shed Tony Snell’s salary. 

The Crusher posted:

You could argue that Bledsoe versus Lowry AND Giannis' free throws cost us the series.  He's ours either way but the guy shit the bed in the ECF.  He shot 29% and  16% from 3.  It's a joke.

Don’t forget the #2 guy shot the same % from the field in the ECF. Better from three, much worse from 2. 

Boneio posted:

Pardon my NBA ignorance as I stopped watching after the 2000 season.

My question is, why can’t the Bucks go after another big name star?  Someone like a Durant, or Klay Thompson. 

The issue is the soft cap. You can only exceed the cap up to the luxury tax re-signing your own players. SO for example, according to Hoopshype, the Bucks have $100M committed to next year with a projected cap of $109M. Hill has only $1M guaranteed of his $18M, and Middleton will decline his $13M option, adding $30M for a total commitment of $70M. The luxury tax threshold is $132M. 

So they have about $52M to use to keep Middleton, Lopez, and Brogdon, and they probably won’t be able to keep Hill. The Bucks could target other FA(s) up to $39M, but would only have $13M left to keep anyone else and they’d have to be players on their own roster. 

At least I think that’s how it works...

Music City posted:
Boneio posted:

Pardon my NBA ignorance as I stopped watching after the 2000 season.

My question is, why can’t the Bucks go after another big name star?  Someone like a Durant, or Klay Thompson. 

The issue is the soft cap. You can only exceed the cap up to the luxury tax re-signing your own players. SO for example, according to Hoopshype, the Bucks have $100M committed to next year with a projected cap of $109M. Hill has only $1M guaranteed of his $18M, and Middleton will decline his $13M option, adding $30M for a total commitment of $70M. The luxury tax threshold is $132M. 

So they have about $52M to use to keep Middleton, Lopez, and Brogdon, and they probably won’t be able to keep Hill. The Bucks could target other FA(s) up to $39M, but would only have $13M left to keep anyone else and they’d have to be players on their own roster. 

At least I think that’s how it works...

The system is set up so that teams can spend more money to keep their own free agents and they can extend the superstars a year before their contract was up. So the Bucks can guarantee Khris Middleton 5 years and 190 million while other teams can "only" go 4 years and 140 million. All indications are that several other teams will have no problem going 4/140. So basically the Bucks will probably have to massively overpay him to keep or lose him without being able to adequately replace him. The Bucks can go after another  "big name" star, but they'll have the same disadvantage that any other team does for Middleton - that is, they will be able to offer much less money than the team he plays for. Klay Thompson or Durant will be giving up 50-60 million dollars if they sign with someone other than the Warriors. But in Durant's case, the fact he has a 300 million dollar shoe deal over the next 10 years helps him move on. 

Then, next summer (July 1, 2020) the decision that will define the Bucks for the next 10 years happens. Giannis can sign a supermax extension of 5 years and 250 million dollars. If he declines, then he becomes the next Anthony Davis. 

 

Music City posted:
The Crusher posted:

You could argue that Bledsoe versus Lowry AND Giannis' free throws cost us the series.  He's ours either way but the guy shit the bed in the ECF.  He shot 29% and  16% from 3.  It's a joke.

Don’t forget the #2 guy shot the same % from the field in the ECF. Better from three, much worse from 2. 

The guy that killed them the most was Mirotic. 

In about 175 minutes with Bledsoe on the floor, the Bucks were -3 (or - 0.5 points a game). His defense kept things even. 

Mirotic was -37 in 103 minutes and was benched for the last 6 quarters. 

MichiganPacker2 posted:
Music City posted:
The Crusher posted:

You could argue that Bledsoe versus Lowry AND Giannis' free throws cost us the series.  He's ours either way but the guy shit the bed in the ECF.  He shot 29% and  16% from 3.  It's a joke.

Don’t forget the #2 guy shot the same % from the field in the ECF. Better from three, much worse from 2. 

The guy that killed them the most was Mirotic. 

In about 175 minutes with Bledsoe on the floor, the Bucks were -3 (or - 0.5 points a game). His defense kept things even. 

Mirotic was -37 in 103 minutes and was benched for the last 6 quarters. 

Mirotic was 6 for 31 from 3 and was a turnstile on defense.

Bledsoe was 5 for 29 from 3 and played his usual good defense. 

If he does, how do they afford Thompson? They may have trade Igoudala. They’ll decline the team option on Livingston, since he’s retiring probably. The rest of their bench is in shambles. 

Paying Durant, Green, Igoudala... $65M. They have 8 players on the payroll if you count Durant, at $113M. $19M left to the tax. They’re f’d...

If I understand things correctly, a team can only have two super max contract players signed at one time.  While Klay Thompson did not qualify for the super max, if they chose to resign KD to the super max it all but ensures Green is gone and it could mean Klay Thompson could bail as they could both sign for the same money elsewhere. 

Maybe that opens the door for a team like the Clippers or Lakers to scoop up Klay thus weakening the Warriors and strengthening themselves.   Heck, Anthony Davis is still in play.  Imagine if the Lakers could land both.  Or the Clippers land Kahwi and Klay.  It could happen. 

All I know is the Warriors are screwed with their cap situation.   

 

Music City posted:

If he does, how do they afford Thompson? They may have trade Igoudala. They’ll decline the team option on Livingston, since he’s retiring probably. The rest of their bench is in shambles. 

Paying Durant, Green, Igoudala... $65M. They have 8 players on the payroll if you count Durant, at $113M. $19M left to the tax. They’re f’d..And they move into a new arena which is going to have insanely expensive prices. Are people really going to want to pay to watch Steph Curry get doubled teamed on every possession to leave Jordan Bell, Quinn Cook, or Kevon Looney open for shots? 

Durant is obviously gone for next year no matter what. If the Warriors were to act in good faith, they'd pay him the max salary that he'd have gotten if he'd have moved on (About 4 years and 165 million). That will be a real test since he clearly laid it on the line for them. If they don't make that offer, who is ever going to play hurt for them again without a long-term contract? 

Igoudala and Livingston are about to retire - this has been rumored for months. If Klay goes, it will turn into a total rebuild around a 31 year old transcendent point guard and a 29 year old guy who is clearly losing a step athletically who has shot 22% from 3 this post-season (Green). Because of salary cap rules (no Bird rights), they can only offer Cousins a fraction of what he'd get elsewhere. It's the same situation the Bucks have with Lopez. 

Botton line, if Durant opts in or resigns, they have limited options in terms of who they can sign. They'd have to sign guys for a mid-level exemption. They would have to think about seeing if they could get anything for Green in a trade. That's literally the only tradeable asset they will have if Klay and Durant leave (Curry is untouchable obviously). But Green doesn't make enough to make a trade work for a star level that would help and might be available (in other words, a good to great player with a massive contract that's stuck on a team that's in purgatory as a 7-8 seed). I'm thinking of a guy like Blake Griffin. 

It's amazing we are talking about how screwed the Warriors are when they are still 2 wins away from a 4th title in 5 years. 

It’s ironic but the super max contract could actually do more harm than good.   In theory, it’s supposed to help competitive balance but it will be put to the test with Golden State.  

What Golden State needs to think about is are they better with an aging and coming off injury KD or Klay and maybe Green instead?  I see no possible scenario they can keep all four. They may not be able to keep any combination of three (including Curry). 

They dumped Lonzo for cap reasons and the fact they don’t need a PG- he costs $19M over the next 2 years. If they’re going to be able to have 3 max slots, they needed to move money in the deal. Now they have Lebron, AD for next years, and another. 

More rumors that Kemba is the FA Target. 

The Lakers getting AD to pair with LeBron and still having room for another max is gonna put them right back in contention. Especially with Golden State likely being on hiatus nex year. Gonna be insufferable.

Seems like a good haul for the Pels. How about the 3 1st rounders, other then #4 are they conditional ?

On paper this seems like a good deal for both teams assuming the Lakers extend Davis.  No way they agree to that without assurances he’s not just a rental. 

New Orleans may be an interesting team.  Assuming they add Zion they already have Holiday and the Lakers pieces could make them a borderline playoff team.  That #4 pick could be parlayed into other players or picks. 

 

Just saw some more details on the trade. 

Pelicans not only get the #4 pick this year, but the Lakers unprotected 1st rounder in 2024 and a protected 1st rounder in 2021. They will also have the right to swap 1st rounders (unprotected) in 2023 and 2025.  

Seems to explain why they didn’t make the deal with the Knicks. That’s a lot of draft capital.   Assuming LeBron doesn’t play until he’s 45 those Laker picks and swaps could be very valuable in the future. 

Tschmack posted:

Ersan’s deal is only about 7MM pet year.  Snell is quite a bit more and you have to believe they want DD and Sterling Brown more in the mix for a lot less money. 

DD is the most likely guy to take a leap in the upcoming season. He could be a major contributor next year. 

Ilyasova has more value, so if they combine him and the 30th it may be enough. Everyone said the Snell deal at the time was horrible- and now it’s the difference between running the whole team back next year and not. Now they will have to package a productive player and a pick to make cap room. Bad deal. 

If you add Ilyasova’s $7M to the cap space, they would save $24M after they buy out Hill and Middleton opts out. That’s $76M payroll, with a cap of $109M. They can’t go over the cap to sign a FA, but if I understand the cap (no promises, now), they would have $33M to sign a FA not on the roster, then just $23M to keep whomever they plan to keep who’s left. 

But Middleton did just buy a house in Milwaukee... so is he going to do the unthinkable? Exercise his $13M option, with an agreement to extend? Next year they have a lot more room, and this could be Middleton doing his part to help them run it back. 

So let’s say he does- trading Ilyasova and buying out Hill clears $24M. They’d then have $35M to keep Lopez and Brogdon. But they shouldn’t need that much just for just this two players, so there’s no need to trade Ilyasova unless... they have something else in mind. 

Horst is working on something... 

Al Horford opting out of a 31MM option this year w/Boston.  

Lopez had a nice year and I hate playing against Horford (Bucks killer) but man would he look good for Milwaukee.  He’d give them another big man that could shoot but more importantly a veteran presence that plays hard and tough.  

Tschmack posted:

I really doubt Middleton will not opt out of his deal.  If he opted in he’s probably going to lose 15MM this season alone. 

If he signs a 5 year max extension, he’s signed through age 33. He won’t get more than $13M past his prime. Would not be that bad a deal. 

Horford has broken off talks with Boston, seeking a 4 year deal elsewhere. Could this be the move Horst has been setting up? Horford instead of Lopez? He’d sure look good in this lineup, and he and Budenholzer have significant history. 

Music City posted:
Tschmack posted:

I really doubt Middleton will not opt out of his deal.  If he opted in he’s probably going to lose 15MM this season alone. 

If he signs a 5 year max extension, he’s signed through age 33. He won’t get more than $13M past his prime. Would not be that bad a deal. 

Horford has broken off talks with Boston, seeking a 4 year deal elsewhere. Could this be the move Horst has been setting up? Horford instead of Lopez? He’d sure look good in this lineup, and he and Budenholzer have significant history. 

Yes on Horford. He's a better version of Lopez that doesn't have to come off the floor against small lineups. Will probably take 4 years and north of 100 million to get it done. 

Music City posted:

I don’t know about that... he’s not going to get that. He just turned 33. A 4 year deal is to max out his $$$, but it’ll be more like $70-80M- my guess anyway. 

I was thinking he was a couple of years younger than that. You're probably with on the $$$s then. 

I’m a bit surprised Horford is turning down a 31MM option for 2020 but it could indicate a few things: 

1) he’s looking for long term security instead more money upfront 

2) he may not be sold on what is happening in Boston 

3) he still believes he’s a top tier player 

The reports I’ve read are that he’s seeking a 4 year deal.  Boston offered him 3 years. 

If you are the Bucks, do you take that chance and throw your hat in the ring?  Quite honestly, he’d be a great fit with this team.   They could probably get Lopez for less money but Horford (even at 33) is still a better overall player. 

It’s like signing Jimmy Graham or Julius Peppers- former great player, great locker room guy, and probably won’t live up to the deal on the back end. But you sign him for what he gives you now, and worry about the rest later, hoping that he can hold up for all 4 years and get you value on the back end, too. 

It’s a sensible idea that I am all on board with. I like Horford better than Lopez, as great a revelation as he was. Sure would love to keep Brogdon as well, but could understand if they decide not to if Dallas or someone else offers him $25M. Then Brown, Divincenzo, and Connaughton will have to provide the boost. Brown is in the same position Brogdon was in, and I think he just needs to get the chance. When Brogdon was down, I thought he played well. 

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