2019 FA Season - A Wild Summer

I think a lot depends on what happens to Brogdon and Middleton. 

If the Bucks decide to sign Middleton for max money - or if they have to match a crazy offer like 25MM per year for Brogdon, then I’d say take another pass at Lopez for say 10-12MM per year over a short term 2-3 year deal.   If the Bucks can get Middleton for about 25MM per year and Brogdon for 15MM per year that opens the door to have money to sign a guy like Horford for 20MM per year over a 4 year period.  

Not sure that will happen though.  I think there is a strong possibility the Bucks overpay for Middleton or Brogdon because they want to appease Giannis.  

But that’s how franchises are ruined. Lebron did that to Cleveland, Miami, and Cleveland again. Look what “can’t miss” contracts for guys like John Wall, Mike Redd, Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, and the Chris Paul deals in both LA and Houston have resulted in. No choice, had to pay him. Now they can’t get rid of them fast enough. 

You pay Giannis like that. You don’t pay Middleton like that. 

I like Horford, but I think I like Lopez better. Hoping like hell we can keep him. Better volume 3 shooter, and more efficient, better defender able to take on the bigs a little better. Also fewer games missed. They are very close. Thinking Horford wants to go to LA.

It's remarkable that Boston has gone from an odds-on Eastern Conference favorite to a team that may struggle to make the playoffs next year in about 8 months. They somehow turned three near-max contract guys (Horford, Irving, and Hayward), a young guy who looked like a future superstar (Tatum), and two young guys that looked like borderline future all-stars (Brown and Rozier) into a complete dumpster fire. They will get nothing for losing Horford Irving and Tatum, Brown, and Rozier badly regressed. Hayward may improve another year removed from his injury, but right now he is borderline unplayable against good teams. 

Music City posted:

But that’s how franchises are ruined. Lebron did that to Cleveland, Miami, and Cleveland again. Look what “can’t miss” contracts for guys like John Wall, Mike Redd, Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, and the Chris Paul deals in both LA and Houston have resulted in. No choice, had to pay him. Now they can’t get rid of them fast enough. 

You pay Giannis like that. You don’t pay Middleton like that. 

As we've discussed for months, the problem is that someone else will pay Middleton like that. It was very likely to happen before, but now that Durant and Thompson are gone next year, it means that major market teams with cap space will have to spend the money on someone. Middleton will benefit. 

If the Bucks lose Middleton, who do they replace him with? I agree its crazy he's going to get 30-35 million when he's more of a 20-25 million guy in today's market, but do we really want to go into the upcoming season (after which Giannis has to decide his future) trying to replace our second best player with a guy a little better than average even if it's for 1/3rd the money (i.e. Danny Green, Trevor Ariza)?  Who else is coming to Milwaukee? Tobias Harris is a decent fit, but he's going to get as much as Middleton and he's not that much better. 

Tobias Harris is a better offensive player than Middleton.  Not by much, but he is.  Middleton is a better defender. 

Bucks just traded Snell to Detroit for Jon Leuer and his expiring $9M contract. Snell has a player option for next year at $12M that he certainly would have taken. 

Doubt John Leuer will ever play for the Bucks.  This is purely to open up cap space for this year and next year.   With the money they have saved it may be enough to bring back Middleton and Lopez and Brogdon and not exceed the cap. 

Just a remarkable trade by Horst. The money saved alone frees roughly 14M to sign Lopez to the MLE. Pretty cool. Add to that, they may be buying in on a 2nd Round pick not far from the one they traded... There are about 4 teams with multiple R2s. Talk about a Win-Win.

Bucks will exceed the cap. No question. They are not concerned about that. Rather, they want to bring their guys back.

Trophies posted:

Just a remarkable trade by Horst. The money saved alone frees roughly 14M to sign Lopez to the MLE. Pretty cool. Add to that, they may be buying in on a 2nd Round pick not far from the one they traded... There are about 4 teams with multiple R2s. Talk about a Win-Win.

Bucks will exceed the cap. No question. They are not concerned about that. Rather, they want to bring their guys back.

Agreed. Leuer may never play for the Bucks, but if he does he can at least space the floor because he is a threat from 3. 

Pistons continue at the pace they are acquiring players from the Bucks, they'll have Giannis by the all star break in 2021.

As scary as this sounds, Snell is an upgrade at G. Their G position is a friggin train wreck. 

For the Bucks, it’s just another move by Horst to run the roster back. So much conflicting shit out there about what Middleton wants, who they F knows anymore. 

Assuming Lopez is the beneficiary of the new cap space, they need to have him do a “post play academy” for Giannis and DJ Wilson. The next stage in both of their evolution...

Music City posted:

As scary as this sounds, Snell is an upgrade at G. 

Blake Griffin and Drummond get to play with almost half of the 3rd unit of the 2017-18 Bucks next year. Maker and Snell will both get significant minutes there. Imagine trying to sell tickets to see that if you are in the Pistons marketing department. 

Maker... put him at SF and see if he can handle it. That’s the only thing left for him. 

Music City posted:

As scary as this sounds, Snell is an upgrade at G. Their G position is a friggin train wreck. 

For the Bucks, it’s just another move by Horst to run the roster back. So much conflicting shit out there about what Middleton wants, who they F knows anymore. 

Assuming Lopez is the beneficiary of the new cap space, they need to have him do a “post play academy” for Giannis and DJ Wilson. The next stage in both of their evolution...

Giannis should develop a jump hook. It would be unblockable. 

Music City posted:

Maker... put him at SF and see if he can handle it. That’s the only thing left for him. 

He has no handle.

Rumors of a 5 year, $190M max for Middleton is simply vomit inducing...

That will set a franchise back

El-Ka-Bong posted:

That will set a franchise back

If, for some reason, Giannis would end up leaving in the next couple of years the Middleton contract will cripple them for the following 3 years after that. He's not good enough to be the star player on a playoff team.

If Giannis stays after Middleton signs, it means they are that much more likely to be in the ECF or semi-finals every year. It may also mean that they never get beyond that point because Middleton is good enough to get you to that point, but not good enough to get beyond that. 

Middleton would be a great third option. If you put him on the Lakers with LeBron and AD, he'd look great. 

The problem the Bucks have is that he'll have to be the second option. The bigger problem is that if they let him go, they won't be able to attract anyone even good enough to be a third option and the Bucks will waste the next two years of Giannis' career being what the Pelicans were with Anthony Davis. 

In an ideal world, you'd get Giannis locked up first long-term and then let Middleton go take big money from the Lakers or Knicks. Then work through a process to get another complementary player to come to Milwaukee that is a better fit for max money. The problem is those guys don't want to come to Milwaukee. 

Solid analysis.

I think if you get Giannis locked up long term then you can draw in some big free agents. Not the same draw as the big cities but not everyone is looking for that. 

PackerHawk posted:

I think if you get Giannis locked up long term then you can draw in some big free agents. Not the same draw as the big cities but not everyone is looking for that. 

Most players (and people for that matter no matter what their profession) base their career choices on the following factors. 

1. Work at a place where they can have personal success and the employees are respected (this is why the Knicks can't get guys despite all their other advantages - who wants to work for James Dolan?). 

2. Make as much money as possible. 

3. Live in a place that fits what you want out of life. For some people that means moving back to where you grew up (Kawhi in LA). For others, it means avoiding cold weather. For others, it means having a lot of entertainment options. 

The Bucks are in a position to offer #1, so, unlike 5 years ago, they are at least on people's radar. Teams like the Pistons, Bulls, Cavs, and Wolves aren't right now. 

The Bucks don't have #3 for most guys, so they have to offer more money in situations like Middleton's. 

I actually think the order is 3 then 2 then 1. I would also add a 4th factor - contract length and/or player option.  It’s basically the NBA version of a no trade clause.  NBA players today may actually take less money or less years to have the ability to move more frequently or have the ability to move.  

Giannis is a different dude. I think he would choose that order of preferences.  Most other star players?  Probably not.  

2 and 3 are 1a / 1b, but can depend on where you are in your career.

I maximized my income up until I was 40. The last 20 years have been about life balance. I see professional athletes no different, just a much shorter career path. Of course, they can have a 2nd career in coaching, broadcasting, other businesses. 

So far this morning the smart money is Kyrie signing with the Nets and Kemba Walker signing with the Cs.   Also sounds like Ricky Rubio to Indiana given the abrupt Darren Collison retirement discussion.  Rubio and Walker developments are very important to the Bucks as it takes two teams off the market to pursue Brogdon. 

Jimmy Butler is all over the map and who knows what Durant is going to do?  Or Kahwi for that matter?   Lots of rumors of the Lakers and Clippers and Knicks and Rockets for that matter.  

Reports of Lopez returning to Milwaukee for 4 years 52MM.  If true that’s a pretty decent deal for the Bucks.  Tony Snell was making almost as much. 

Saw a blurb about Lilliard contract for Portland at 4 years, 196MM.  JFC that’s a lot of money for a decent but not transcendent player.  Durant should be worth 70MM a season if that’s what the other guy is making. 

I started a new thread on this. Feel free to lock it if you'd rather have stuff here. 

Walker to the Celtics. Durant and Irving to the Nets. Lopez and Middleton (5 years , 178 million) to the Bucks. 

So there it is - Middleton gets basically the max.  35MM per year over 5 years.   Let’s see if he can elevate his game because he’s not a 35MM per year player. 

I heard a rumor earlier this year that there was 1 Bucks pending FA starter that did not want to come back.  At the time I thought it was either Middleton, Bledsoe (hadn't signed his current deal yet), or Lopez.  Clearly it was actually Brogdon that was the disgruntled one now that we know he's been traded. 

Let's hope Donte DiVincenzo can step it up, he has big shoes to fill.

Edit:  It's too bad, I really liked Brogdon as a player but I guess he just didn't like the city enough to want to stay.

Brogdon to Indiana in a sign and trade.  Bucks get 1st rounder and 2 2nd rounders.  

Bummer but not shocked.  Indiana loses Collison and Bogdonavich they had to do something.   With Rubio headed to Phoenix that put the Bucks and Brogdon at risk.

Need for DD and Sterling Brown now to step up.  Would be nice to find a way to get George Hill back as I see DD more of a 2 guard than PG. 

Man Utah is loaded right now! 

I’m kind of shocked, as I thought keeping Brogs by matching was their only option. Horst working a sign and trade, getting a 1st Round pick, and two 2nd Round picks makes this far more palatable. 

He didn’t want to stay in MKE that badly. Ok. Great job by Horst making the absolute most out of this. 

His long stretches being unavailable due to injury made me nervous @ +$20M/year. He was unavailable a lot at Virginia prior. Those issues rarely reverse. We won plenty without Brogdon.

I felt Lopez was our #1 priority all the way, and I’m happy to hear he will be back long term. 

Unless the Pacers have another move in them, Brogdon is going to a team that has a ceiling of about a 5 seed. I'd rather have Bogdanovic than Brogdon, and they essentially replaced Bogdanovic, a first round pick, and two seconds for Brogdon (and more money per year). 

DiVencenzo can replace at least part of what Brogdon can do. 

Also, the Pacers lose Thaddeus Young. He played Giannis well. 

Bucks, Celtics, Nets, Sixers, and Raptors clearly top 5. Pacers may be closer to lottery than a top 4 seed. 

And the pieces on the board move. The Bucks seem to have come to the conclusion that Brogdon was the most expendable one. Middleton giving the Bucks a couple mil a year savings might allow them to find another Lopez. 

I’m not thrilled at all about locking in Middleton for $178M. $37M is still ridiculous money for a guy who’s never been on an All NBA team, whose primary redeeming quality is he’s willing to play in Milwaukee. I mean ****... 

But hey- if he catches his stride, let’s the game come to him, and puts up 22/game next season and they win it all they’re not that bad off. But I have watched this guy for 4 years... he’s a bum slayer game on offense. He’s had really good moments defensively, but he cannot sit back on that anymore. He has to be able to put up numbers when they’re playing great teams. He needs to show up in shape (another concern). He needs to be a better ball handler, and he needs to achieve true consistency with his game at a high level. You’re in the big time now, Khris... can’t just get paid like a Star. Gotta be one... 

And Hill is back for 3 years, $29M... back court is set- Brown, Hill, Divincenzo, and Connaughton with Bledsoe. 

Getting Hill back in the fold really lessens the sting of not extending Brogdon.  He can back up Bledsoe and has shown when necessary can actually lead the PG position.  He plays with energy and passion.  Can hit the big shots and is pesky on D.  In a way, he’s a cheaper version of Brogdon and what we need to remember is Hill wasn’t with them the entire year.  

If they can get Sterling Brown to give them decent minutes off the bench like he was toward the end of the year and DD isn’t a complete train wreck I think they will be fine in the end.   Good enough to compete for the top 3 in the East again especially if Kahwi doesn’t return to Toronto. 

We also are assuming we’ve seen the best of Bledsoe and Middleton and Giannis.  And DJ Wilson for that matter.  Ersan and Pat C will be the glue guys and Hill and Lopez are the saavy vets every good team needs. 

Agree. Midds has got to raise his game to become a true star. Can’t rationalize that amount of $. Awesome news on Hill. I love Sterling. He and DD, along w Hill gives us pleanty of cover, if not better play.  

Assets back on the sign & trade was genius.

The best of Giannis is in front of us, as is with many other players on this team.  

Butler S&T and will go to Miami - details pending. 

Horford 4 years $109M to Philly, and they 5 year max Tobias Harris. 

KD to the Nets, and they’re going to need to move some salary to max Kyrie. 

Josh Richardson to Philly in the sign and trade with Miami. 

Bojan Bogdanovic to Utah 4 years, $73M

Julius Randle to the Knicks 3 years, $63M

Terrence Ross 4 years, $54M to return to Orlando (thought the Bucks might have been interested)

Jonas Valanciunis stays with Memphis 3 years $45M

Harrison Barnes 4 years $85M to the Kings 

https://onmilwaukee.com/sports...ill-free-agency.html