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Packdog posted:
 
michiganjoe posted:

First game pretty much deteriorated when Light replaced Bulaga...

First game was a train wreck from the get go for the offense.  

Started bad and stayed bad:

  • Fumble by Rodgers - SF recovered at 2 yard line/scored one play later
  • Punt
  • Punt
  • Punt
  • Downs
  • Punt 
  • Punt
  • Punt

 

Somehow I think we can do better.

 What gives me hope is how Seattle, Baltimore, Rams, and Arizona played well against the 49ers.

What concerns me is - who knows what MLF is trying to run better than Shanahan and Saleh ??

Gotta start strong .  

 

The first 8 possessions sound like my sex life the past 8 months.

Boris posted:

If the Packers are going to win this game, I believe they need to jump on the Niners early. 

 

Like January 6, 1996 when the 49ers at home were heavily favored against the Packers in the playoffs. I'll never forget Wayne Simmons (RIP) laying out the 49ers RB and causing a fumble that was returned by Craig Newsome on their first offensive play:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...n_Francisco_49ers_17

NFC: Green Bay Packers 27, San Francisco 49ers 17[edit]

Game summary
 1234Total
Packers1473327
49ers037717

at 3Com Park at Candlestick Point, San Francisco

 

For the first time ever since becoming the head coach of the Packers, Mike Holmgren was coaching against his former team where he was the Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks coach for six seasons.

The Packers jumped to a 21–0 lead en route to a 27–17 victory. Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre threw for 222 yards in the first half, and ended up with completing 21 out of 28 passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Receiver Robert Brooks caught four passes for 103 yards. Meanwhile, their defense sacked 49ers quarterback Steve Young three times and intercepted him twice. Young ended up setting a playoff record with 65 pass attempts, but completed only 32 of them for 328 yards. He added 77 yards on the ground. For the second playoff game in a row, Green Bay did not lose any turnovers, while the 49ers turned the ball over 4 times.

The Packers took the opening kickoff and held onto the ball for 7:11 before kicker Chris Jacke's 44-yard field goal attempt was blocked by 49ers defensive back Tim McDonald. But on San Francisco's first play, running back Adam Walker fumbled after being hit by linebacker Wayne Simmons. Rookie defensive back Craig Newsome picked up the ball and returned it 31 yards for the touchdown. Then after forcing the 49ers to punt, the Packers advanced 62 yards, with Favre completing a 35-yard pass to tight end Keith Jackson and a 20-yarder to Brooks, to score on Favre's 3-yard touchdown to Jackson, who finished the day with four receptions for 101 yards.[4]

Green Bay would later drive 72 yards in 7 plays to score on tight end Mark Chmura's 13-yard touchdown reception before Young's 32-yard completion to Jerry Rice set up Jeff Wilkins 21-3 field goal to cut the lead to 21–3 at the end of the half. In the second half, Jacke kicked two field goals while the 49ers could only manage two touchdowns: a 1-yard run by Young and a 2-yarder by running back Derek Loville.[5]

This was the only time during the 1990s that an NFC team won a divisional playoff game on the road. Rice finished the game with 11 receptions for 117 yards, while 49ers tight end Brent Jones had 8 catches for 112.

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Last edited by mr21mr21

I know it’s highly speculative, but I think it’s interesting that the Pack and 49ers have played two common opponents in the last 4 weeks.

Week 15 Sunday, December 16
Pack at Vikings – 23-10

Sunday, January 12
Seattle at Packers – 28-23

Week 17 Sunday, December 29
Seattle at SF – 26-21

Saturday, January 11
Minnesota at SF – 27-10

A couple interesting items.

1) Pack played one of the games at home and one away. SF both games at home.

2) Pack Vikings was much more lopsided than the score.

3) Seattle missed winning its game against SF by a single yard on the last play.


Realizing I am unaware of any other compelling items, I think the above tilts a prediction by the common opponent analysis by a couple points.

Regardless the prediction is:


Vikings:
Pack: +13
49ers: +17

Difference is +4/2 SF or 2 points.


Seahawks:
Difference is 0/2 = 0 points.

Factoring by 2 games: (2/2) or 1 point.

Home team - 3 points.

Prediction: SF by 4 points.

Conclusion
The data supports a game way too close to call and predicting a 49er beatdown is absurd.

 

Last edited by phaedrus
phaedrus posted:

I know it’s highly speculative, but I think it’s interesting that the Pack and 49ers have played two common opponents in the last 4 weeks.

Week 15 Sunday, December 16
Pack at Vikings – 23-10

Sunday, January 12
Seattle at Packers – 28-23

Week 17 Sunday, December 29
Seattle at SF – 26-21

Saturday, January 11
Minnesota at SF – 27-10

A couple interesting items.

1) Pack played one of the games at home and one away. SF both games at home.

2) Pack Vikings was much more lopsided than the score.

3) Seattle missed winning its game against SF by a single yard on the last play.


Realizing I am unaware of any other compelling items, I think the above tilts a prediction by the common opponent analysis by a couple points.

Regardless the prediction is:


Vikings:
Pack: +13
49ers: +17

Difference is +4/2 SF or 2 points.


Seahawks:
Difference is 0/2 = 0 points.

Factoring by 2 games: (2/2) or 1 point.

Home team - 3 points.

Prediction: SF by 4 points.

Conclusion
The data supports a game way too close to call and predicting a 49er beatdown is absurd.

 

SF was at Seattle week 17

If these two teams just played straight up holding everything constant (injuries, penalties, turnovers) the Niners are probably a 10-14 point favorite. 

But as we saw with Tennessee and Baltimore strange things can happen namely if a team can force mistakes and/or make big plays they can steal a win as an underdog. 

That’s exactly what GB did in SF in 1995.  

 

That's a fun breakdown, @phaedrus but football isn't a math equation.  It's all about matchups and being opportunistic.  SEA matches up very well vs. SF, whether by personnel, familiarity or division rivalry.  I don't really think they're that close in talent aside from Wilson tilting the field.

Based on the Nov. meeting, GB doesn't matchup well with SF at this point.  But stranger things have happened and this GB team seams to have all the vibes right now.  A large onus falls on MLF to identify what went wrong a couple months ago and find ways to eliminate those factors and be unpredictable to Shenanihan.

mr21mr21 posted:
Boris posted:

If the Packers are going to win this game, I believe they need to jump on the Niners early. 

 

Like January 6, 1996 when the 49ers at home were heavily favored against the Packers in the playoffs. I'll never forget Wayne Simmons (RIP) laying out the 49ers RB and causing a fumble that was returned by Craig Newsome on their first offensive play:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...n_Francisco_49ers_17

NFC: Green Bay Packers 27, San Francisco 49ers 17[edit]

Game summary
 1234Total
Packers1473327
49ers037717

at 3Com Park at Candlestick Point, San Francisco

 

For the first time ever since becoming the head coach of the Packers, Mike Holmgren was coaching against his former team where he was the Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks coach for six seasons.

The Packers jumped to a 21–0 lead en route to a 27–17 victory. Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre threw for 222 yards in the first half, and ended up with completing 21 out of 28 passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Receiver Robert Brooks caught four passes for 103 yards. Meanwhile, their defense sacked 49ers quarterback Steve Young three times and intercepted him twice. Young ended up setting a playoff record with 65 pass attempts, but completed only 32 of them for 328 yards. He added 77 yards on the ground. For the second playoff game in a row, Green Bay did not lose any turnovers, while the 49ers turned the ball over 4 times.

The Packers took the opening kickoff and held onto the ball for 7:11 before kicker Chris Jacke's 44-yard field goal attempt was blocked by 49ers defensive back Tim McDonald. But on San Francisco's first play, running back Adam Walker fumbled after being hit by linebacker Wayne Simmons. Rookie defensive back Craig Newsome picked up the ball and returned it 31 yards for the touchdown. Then after forcing the 49ers to punt, the Packers advanced 62 yards, with Favre completing a 35-yard pass to tight end Keith Jackson and a 20-yarder to Brooks, to score on Favre's 3-yard touchdown to Jackson, who finished the day with four receptions for 101 yards.[4]

Green Bay would later drive 72 yards in 7 plays to score on tight end Mark Chmura's 13-yard touchdown reception before Young's 32-yard completion to Jerry Rice set up Jeff Wilkins 21-3 field goal to cut the lead to 21–3 at the end of the half. In the second half, Jacke kicked two field goals while the 49ers could only manage two touchdowns: a 1-yard run by Young and a 2-yarder by running back Derek Loville.[5]

This was the only time during the 1990s that an NFC team won a divisional playoff game on the road. Rice finished the game with 11 receptions for 117 yards, while 49ers tight end Brent Jones had 8 catches for 112.

One of my favorite Packer games ever. No one expected us to compete like that. Wayne Simmons abused Brent jones all day long. It was fabulous.

Last night I dreamed we were winning 27-20 with The Niners driving in the red zone with about a minute left when Jimmy G got picked by Jaire at the 5 and he didn’t Morgan Burnett it he took it all the way back for a puck six and the D celebration was wonderful. Niners has 42 seconds left to

pull it out and failed without scoring.

Packdog posted:
 
michiganjoe posted:

First game pretty much deteriorated when Light replaced Bulaga...

First game was a train wreck from the get go for the offense.  

Started bad and stayed bad:

  • Fumble by Rodgers - SF recovered at 2 yard line/scored one play later
  • Punt
  • Punt
  • Punt
  • Downs
  • Punt 
  • Punt
  • Punt

 

Somehow I think we can do better.

 What gives me hope is how Seattle, Baltimore, Rams, and Arizona played well against the 49ers.

What concerns me is - who knows what MLF is trying to run better than Shanahan and Saleh ??

Gotta start strong .  

 

Let's also not forget a very WEAK taunting penalty on Adams to start that game as well. Just the most bizarre things to start that game that won't be happening again..

Last edited by packerboi
DH13 posted:

That's a fun breakdown, @phaedrus but football isn't a math equation.  It's all about matchups and being opportunistic.  SEA matches up very well vs. SF, whether by personnel, familiarity or division rivalry.  I don't really think they're that close in talent aside from Wilson tilting the field.

Based on the Nov. meeting, GB doesn't matchup well with SF at this point.  But stranger things have happened and this GB team seams to have all the vibes right now.  A large onus falls on MLF to identify what went wrong a couple months ago and find ways to eliminate those factors and be unpredictable to Shenanihan.

I agree with you that how a team matches up (strengths and weaknesses) is a better indicator of potential success, but I am not sure that Seattle matches up better with Niners.  For sure, their offensive line is not as good as the Packers, so against the Niners d-line, that is a bad matchup.  However, having a "chicken-like" (per the Smith brothers) Wilson running around the field, avoiding sacks and buying time or picking up positive yardage, mitigates that.  Rodgers is not as mobile as he was a couple of years ago, so he is a sitting duck for that d-line.  I am thinking that the key factor in this game will be having Bulaga back in the lineup.  Having to go with Alex Light in that last meeting pretty much doomed the Packers. I'd also love to see what they could do going to a heavy formation with an extra lineman. 

PackLandVA posted:
Henry posted:
YATittle posted:

From Wikipedia: Ervin has been compared to established all-purpose players in the NFL like Jamaal Charles and Darren Sproles.

Who are running backs.  If he was out there in week 14 he's not Sproles or Charles.

Wikipedia? 

I believe Ty Montgomery proved the RB and WR positions are interchangeable. 

Yes, Ty Montgomery and Ervin are Sproles and Charles.  Jesus fuck.

Let's try a little context.  Does anyone really think Ervin, who was picked up in week 14 to help the return game, will be a long term solution as a slot receiver?  Let's add to it.  The suggestion was he was like Sproles and Charles.  Let's try to keep the delusions within the stratosphere at least.

Last edited by Henry

One thing I've said and others have mentioned is a heavy package like Shermy's U-Bacon.  Two things to consider, that was a really good Oline with a crazy bruiser/speedster in Ahman Green.  Doesn't matter if you have 8 guys if the 4 Dlinemen are slicing right through it, which 9ers line is capable of.  I still think a heavy package will be needed but there needs to be perfect execution down the Oline.

Bottom line.  The oline plays absolutely stellar ball they win.

Last edited by Henry

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