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I thought this deserved it's own thread. An article in The Ringer absolutely eviscerates Bud. 

https://www.theringer.com/nba/...mpo-mike-budenholzer

Lack of Adjustments

Budenholzer gave an even more troubling quote to James Herbert of CBS Sports in March when asked about making adjustments in the playoffs: “We kind of do what we do, and hopefully it’s good enough.”

The Bucks need more from their coach going forward. He needs to proactively make adjustments headed into each series, and then quickly identify what is and isn’t working. They need Budenholzer to coach as if his job was on the line. It should be, given the stakes. If he’s not going to coach with the necessary level of urgency, the Bucks need to find someone who will. 

 

Substitution Patterns

Kyle Lowry played 46 minutes in Toronto’s miraculous Game 3 win on Thursday. Giannis played 34 minutes in Game 4 against Toronto last season, 39 minutes in Game 5, and 40 minutes in Game 6. Those extra 8-10 minutes can be the difference between winning and losing a playoff series. Not only is that more playing time for your best players, it is less for your worst ones. The Bucks have a net rating of minus-30.0 in the 10 minutes that Kyle Korver and Pat Connaughton played together in games 1 and 2; the Bucks really shouldn’t be playing either at all.

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@Pikes Peak posted:

Didn't you post a plus minus stat showing the the team did better with him off the floor.

Yes. Some of the minutes criticism is from people that must not watch the games and look at the box score at the end and see that Giannis only had 4 fouls. He limits his own minutes sometimes with stupid fouls and the flops that get called on him also limit those minutes. 

The article actually makes the point that Middleton is the one keeping them in games on the offensive end. They are awful without him on the floor in this series. I'd like to see what they are with Giannis in and Middleton out in terms of a net rating. 

There are no reliable options behind Khris Middleton. The Bucks go from a net rating of plus-5.5 in the series with him to minus-12 without him. There’s Eric Bledsoe, whose decision-making and shooting comes and goes, George Hill, more of a spot-up shooter at this stage of his career, and Donte DiVincenzo, who is disappearing at the worst possible time after a promising sophomore season. The decision to let Malcolm Brogdon walk in free agency rather than pay the luxury tax looks worse and worse as time goes on.

I somewhat disagree on the Brogdon comment. Wes Matthews can do what Brogdon does as a spot-up shooter and is a more physical defender. Brogdon is a better guy going to the rim, but he's redundant with Bledsoe in that role. The real problem is continuing to play DDV and Connaughton. Brogdon vs. Matthews is not a huge difference, especially given that it's 18 million a year vs. the vet minimum. You could argue that Matthews and/or Williams have been slotted into the Mirotic minutes from last year's playoffs and have been a gigantic upgrade. It's slotting DDV and Connaughton into the Brodgon minutes and having them play like G league players in this series. 

Yes. Some of the minutes criticism is from people that must not watch the games and look at the box score at the end and see that Giannis only had 4 fouls. He limits his own minutes sometimes with stupid fouls and the flops that get called on him also limit those minutes. 

The article actually makes the point that Middleton is the one keeping them in games on the offensive end. They are awful without him on the floor in this series. I'd like to see what they are with Giannis in and Middleton out in terms of a net rating. 

There are no reliable options behind Khris Middleton. The Bucks go from a net rating of plus-5.5 in the series with him to minus-12 without him. There’s Eric Bledsoe, whose decision-making and shooting comes and goes, George Hill, more of a spot-up shooter at this stage of his career, and Donte DiVincenzo, who is disappearing at the worst possible time after a promising sophomore season. The decision to let Malcolm Brogdon walk in free agency rather than pay the luxury tax looks worse and worse as time goes on.

I somewhat disagree on the Brogdon comment. Wes Matthews can do what Brogdon does as a spot-up shooter and is a more physical defender. Brogdon is a better guy going to the rim, but he's redundant with Bledsoe in that role. The real problem is continuing to play DDV and Connaughton. Brogdon vs. Matthews is not a huge difference, especially given that it's 18 million a year vs. the vet minimum. You could argue that Matthews and/or Williams have been slotted into the Mirotic minutes from last year's playoffs and have been a gigantic upgrade. It's slotting DDV and Connaughton into the Brodgon minutes and having them play like G league players in this series. 

I think they really miss Brogdon's drives.  I don't think it's redundant and remember Brogdon can play PG and SG.   Imagine if he had had the ball in his hands...better shooter, better passer, better free throw shooter, close to the same defender.   Brogdon can handle the pressure.  It appears no one on the Bucks can at this point.

@The Crusher posted:

I think they really miss Brogdon's drives.  I don't think it's redundant and remember Brogdon can play PG and SG.   Imagine if he had had the ball in his hands...better shooter, better passer, better free throw shooter, close to the same defender.   Brogdon can handle the pressure.  It appears no one on the Bucks can at this point.

Brook Lopez is 21-35 from the floor in the series. He's 10-20 from 3 and is averaging 21 points and 5 boards. 

Middleton is 25-55 and 6-17 from 3. A lot of his misses from 3 have been 28-30 footers he's forced to take after they've fallen way behind. Even with that he's averaging 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists a game. 45% from the floor and 93% from the line.  Middleton had 0 turnovers tonight. 

George Hill is 13-23 from the floor for the series and 4-10 from 3.  

Those 3 guys have played more than well enough to win. Middleton hit three of the highest pressure FTs you will ever see to tie Game 2. All 3 were pure. 

The guys that have wilted are the same guys that cratered last year. 

Bledsoe is 8-23 in the series from the floor. That's three years in a row where he can't shoot in a series they lose. He was 11-45 in the 4 losses to the Raptors last year and had problems against Boston 2 years ago. He can't be back next year at this point unless he's coming off the bench. 

Giannis in this series is 23 for 51 from the floor and 2-13 from 3. It's even worse than that if you consider that he hit 5 of his first 8 shots in Game 1 and 2 of his first 3 three-pointers. From that point on (when the Bucks were up 6 near the begging of the second half in Game 1, he's gone 18 for 43 from the floor and missed 10 three-pointers in a row. He's also been 20-37 from the line. I mean, if we are being honest, he's been awful on the offensive end. He looks like a guy that knows he sucks shooting the ball and he's more trying not to embarrass himself and not throw up air balls. I'd like to 

Then, of course, is Bud. We do what we do and we hope it's good enough. That's his actual quote from earlier this year. You draw up a game plan the encourages Giannis to keep launching from 3 and doesn't set him up in the post. Giannis is completely lost on offense right now. You can see it in his eyes. He's shell shocked. 

 

Been reading and hearing all about Brogdon and how the Bucks were cheap not to pay him, and the organization erred in not keeping him. This kind of revisionist history is what we’re going to have to endure the next 12 months, I guess. The Bucks did not pass on Brogdon because they were cheap- they were reluctant to pay a player $80M over 4 years who missed 52 games in 2 years. They know they have to be right with their decisions to surround their star with the right guys while this window is open- else they become Lebron’s Cavs the first go-round.

Brogdon missed games this year too- and was a player who clearly benefitted from the shutdown. When he was drafted, Brogdon was a first round talent who lasted to the second round because teams were leery of the only ability he hadn’t displayed- availability. A foot injury in college that forced him to be a 5th year senior, then injuries that affected the Bucks’ playoff runs in back to back seasons were enough red flags that warned that Brogdon, while an excellent player when on the floor, does not have a body built for 100 games. That’s the long game. 

The Bucks instead went with smart, veteran players who did help the team win. They’re not hamstrung with their contracts- they’ll be able to move on right now. The real question is how will the Bucks change from within to become playoff ready? There’s enough evidence that Middleton has playoff ability. The guy who needs to prove himself is their star- he must lead them. Budenholzer must guide him there- enough with “let it fly” and drop defending the P&R. Quit giving the opposition open 3s. Add shooting to the lineup- if Miami can make themselves dangerous with Duncan fucking Robinson on the floor, go out and find one of those players. 

Last edited by Music City

George Hill is battle tested.  Middleton and Lopez have proven they can step up in the playoffs.  Heck, DDV showed some signs of life in the playoffs and in theory should get better. 

Even with Brogdon this year they don’t beat Miami 4 out of 7.   Bam is the one guy that can defend Giannis and the Bucks still would have had playoff Bledsoe (awful) to contend with. 

To me, you really only have 2 decisions to make, or 3 if Coach Bud is concerned. 

1) Lock up Giannis now 

2) Trade Giannis 

3) Stick with or fire Bud 

Letting Giannis potentially walk after this season (for nothing) would be a disaster.  I think Horst simply needs to sit him down and have that conversation with him.  The Bucks have shown they are willing to spend and add players around him but if he has lost faith or isn’t confident in the future then they have to trade him.  

Last edited by Tschmack
@Music City posted:

Been reading and hearing all about Brogdon and how the Bucks were cheap not to pay him, and the organization erred in not keeping him. This kind of revisionist history is what we’re going to have to endure the next 12 months, I guess. The Bucks did not pass on Brogdon because they were cheap- they were reluctant to pay a player $80M over 4 years who missed 52 games in 2 years. They know they have to be right with their decisions to surround their star with the right guys while this window is open- else they become Lebron’s Cavs the first go-round.

Brogdon missed games this year too- and was a player who clearly benefitted from the shutdown. When he was drafted, Brogdon was a first round talent who lasted to the second round because teams were leery of the only ability he hadn’t displayed- availability. A foot injury in college that forced him to be a 5th year senior, then injuries that affected the Bucks’ playoff runs in back to back seasons were enough red flags that warned that Brogdon, while an excellent player when on the floor, does not have a body built for 100 games. That’s the long game. 

The Bucks instead went with smart, veteran players who did help the team win. They’re not hamstrung with their contracts- they’ll be able to move on right now. The real question is how will the Bucks change from within to become playoff ready? There’s enough evidence that Middleton has playoff ability. The guy who needs to prove himself is their star- he must lead them. Budenholzer must guide him there- enough with “let it fly” and drop defending the P&R. Quit giving the opposition open 3s. Add shooting to the lineup- if Miami can make themselves dangerous with Duncan fucking Robinson on the floor, go out and find one of those players. 

This 100 percent. This stuff about Brogdon making a difference in this series is over the top.

1. Wes Matthews was outstanding in guarding Butler. In fact, the dumbest coaching move (out of many candidates) was not having Matthews in for Games 1 and 3 to guard Butler in the 4th was the worst. Brogdon was not going to guard Butler any better. If anything, Matthews was a defensive upgrade and he shot about the same percentage from 3 against the Heat (5 for 15) as Brogdon did in the 4 losses against the Raptors last year (7 for 22). 

2. The talking heads are acting like Brogdon is the second coming of Steph Curry as a shooter and somehow an elite guy going to the basket. He shot 43% from the floor and 32.6% from the 3 point line this season as a high volume shooter (something likely due to not getting as many wide open shots). His shooting percentages were almost the same as Andrew Wiggins. As someone else said about Wiggins, his counting statistics were a lot of empty calories. 

3. Even more telling as I said above, Brogdon was 7 for 22 from 3 in the 4 games the Bucks lost to the Raptors in the ECF (31.8%). In other words, in the exact same scenario as this Heat series (needed to hit shots when they build the wall against Giannis) he failed. Not Bledsoe-level ineptitude, but if Brogdon hits 40% of those shots (many wide open) the Bucks are probably NBA champs last year. He also had a couple of killer turnovers at the end of those games.

3. The injury issue is immense with Brogdon. As you pointed out, the shutdown obscured the fact that he was unavailable for long stretches this season with back problems. The foot problems eventually cause other orthopedic issues due to other parts of the body being forced to compensate for altered gait, etc. and I think that's what's happening with Brogdon. In his last two seasons with the Bucks he played 48 and 64 games. This season with the Pacers, he played 54 of 73 games (about the same as 60 games of a full season). Basically, you are getting a guy who'll play at most 3/4s of the games and will likely wear down towards the end every year. 

4. Brogdon has only played 4 years, but he turns 28 this year. He's 2 years older than Giannis and only a year younger than Middleton.  Most injury-prone players do not become less injury-prone with more wear on them (Steph Curry is a glaring exception). As Music said, his contract could very quickly become an injury-related liability. 

5. Brogdon is a great complementary 6 man type when healthy. However, he might be the slowest muscle twitch player in the NBA. He was effective driving to the basket, but his drives often took a long time to get there. The last thing the Bucks need is another player that runs the shot clock down while creating penetration. They need a guy that can make decisive moves to the bucket in a away for their to be more time left on the shot clock to allow an extra pass to an open guy. Those extra 3-4 seconds are crucial. Brogdon, while effective, almost looked like he was in slow motion. 

If there is a criticism of the way they handled Brogdon, it's whether they could have gotten a better offer from someone else in the sign and trade. A draft pick around 20 is probably not going to move the needle much. If they package that pick with Bledsoe and some other pieces for a roster reset, it makes that trade look much better. 

The Bucks mistake was not picking Bledsoe over Brogdon. It was not trying harder to upgrade over both of them. 

Ideally, you would have someone interested in Bledsoe to add to their team for his defensive abilities.  He’s an elite defender.  If Robert Covington can attract interest so may Bledsoe and his contract isn’t horrible.  

My main concern with Brogdon is he hasn’t shown he can stay healthy.   It’s the same reason I don’t think you can trust Joel Embiid.   At some point that’s who they are and if you are hurt you can’t help the team.  That’s fine if you are a backup making 4MM per year but not if you are counted on to be a key cog (starter) at 20MM+ per year. 

 

This is probably the best take on Giannis and the Bucks I've read by Kevin O'Connor at The Ringer. It doesn't go overboard with the narrative that the supporting cast is poor. Instead, it says they already have a good set of players around Giannis, but they need better wings (an actual 3 and D wing like Covington or Jae Crowder types), minimize Bledsoe's role, and to get a point guard that can run pick and roll off with Giannis (who can then finish on the role or look for Middleton for open shots as the defense rotates off). 

https://www.theringer.com/nba/...ee-bucks-free-agency

It's also the most rationale in terms of explaining the Brogdon situation. 

Last edited by MichiganPacker2

Love that article... seems like he was directing that article at his Ringer colleague Jonathan Tjarks. Tjarks’ column the day before was basically blaming the Bucks organization for everything and, without saying it, saying Giannis should leave Milwaukee. 

KOC has a much more logical approach- much less revisionist history. There are some options, and Horst isn’t stupid. I’m still not confident in them getting Paul because I don’t like anything they have to give up, but if Presti is desperate enough to cut payroll they might be able to get it done. 

I'm not a big NBA'er like some here.  But isn't Paul about 34?  Hasn't he been on a gazzillion teams?  Have any of those teams ever won the prize?

Now, I can see how guys can wear out their welcome and how money and relationships can change teams from year to year BUT can it be that he rubs people the wrong way?  Why would we expect him to be the missing link in Milwaukee?

 

@Pikes Peak posted:

I'm not a big NBA'er like some here.  But isn't Paul about 34?  Hasn't he been on a gazzillion teams?  Have any of those teams ever won the prize?

Now, I can see how guys can wear out their welcome and how money and relationships can change teams from year to year BUT can it be that he rubs people the wrong way?  Why would we expect him to be the missing link in Milwaukee?

 

Long post, but trying to explain why Chris Paul is the perfect Hail Mary for the Buck's situation. He's a top 5 point guard in NBA history. 

He's popular with the other players. He was elected president of the NBA players union and has remained in that position a long time. Ironically, if he has any problems with players it because of the super-max contract he was instrumental in negotiating which some feel takes away too much from the mid-level guys.  It's ironic in several ways, all tied directly or indirectly to Giannis.

First, the supermax is a big motivation for Giannis to stay in Milwaukee. Second, because Paul has a supermax he's a prisoner of his own contract in terms of who he can play for.  He's played for a bunch of teams but got screwed over a couple of times. First, when the (now) Pelicans tried to trade him (because they didn't want to pay him) to the Lakers to play with Kobe, David Stern voided the trade. He ended up with the Clippers and made them into lob city (notice that Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan aren't quite the same without him. In 2015, he hit one of the most clutch shots in the NBA playoffs that year, hitting essentially a buzzer-beater on a bad hamstring over Tim Duncan in Game 7 to eliminate the Spurs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zkpv8Qv_x_U

But he missed parts of the next series because of it and the Clippers lost. He broke a hand the following year in the playoffs leading to another Clippers loss. 

Then, the Rockets decided to trade a king's ransom for him (8 players and a draft pick). He got to the Rockets and in the 2018 playoffs they went up 3 games to 2 on the Durant Warriors, but then Paul pulled his hamstring (while outplaying Steph Curry) and the Warriors won the last 2. In the Game 5 that put the Rockets up 3-2, they won despite the fact that James Harden went 0-11 from 3. They won because of Chris Paul. Eventually, the rumors were that Harden didn't want to share the spotlight with him and was buddies with Westbrook from their OKC days, so the Thunder swapped them (and got a bunch of Houston's picks). I don't think anyone would rank Westbrook above Chris Paul, except for the difference in age. 

He wasn't supposed to be in OKC as they were expected to move him rather than pay him. But... he's due 85 MILLION dollars the next two years. Yes, 85 MILLION. He was rumored to be going to the Heat, but they allegedly didn't pull the trigger partly because they wanted to conserve salary cap space to make a run at the 2021 free-agent class (you can guess who). Then, there were rumors he'd try to negotiate a buyout, but 85 million is a lot of money to leave on the table for a guy who is still playing at a HOF level. He stayed at OKC and was the main reason they got to the playoffs and almost beat the Rockets in a 7 game series (that came down to the final possession).  

So, the reason he might be attainable by the Bucks is that other teams A. Don't want to take on the enormous salary which would almost certainly result in luxury tax penalties and B. It would use up salary cap room that they could use to make a run at Giannis. 

Chris Paul is a 10-time all-star, first ballot HOFer, and multiple time All-NBA defensive team selection. Advanced metrics like win shares, win shares/48 minutes, box score +/-, easily place him in the top 20 of NBA players all time. I've put the link here you can scroll through. 

https://www.basketball-referen...yers/p/paulch01.html

The risks are obvious. His gigantic contract and his age make him a huge injury risk. If the Bucks can get him without giving up Middleton, they will be paying 3 players over 120 million dollars next year if Giannis signs the SuperMax.

The upside is that there is literally no player out there that when healthy is a better fit for what the Bucks need (there might not be a better player that ever lived better for what they need). He's a great clutch player, he's a good 3 point shooter, he's 48/37/85 shooting in the playoffs in his career, he's probably a top 5 point guard in history running pick and rolls, and he really has no weaknesses other than size. The only thing that keeps from being mentioned as a top 20 player all time is the lack of rings.  He is rumored to be interested in going to the Bucks. He is Giannis' Oscar Robertson. 

If the Bucks are serious about going for broke and the owners are willing to dig deep to pay luxury tax, he's probably the only guy out there that if they trade for him it will change the narrative for next year's playoffs (provided he can stay healthy). He's that good. If he wasn't owed 85 million over the next two years, every contender would be trying to sign him. It's that contract that gives the Bucks the chance to go all in. They'd have to package Bledsoe, Hill, Ilyasova, DJ Wilson, and some picks to do it, but it can be done. It would leave the Bucks without any depth, but their depth was exposed against the Heat anyway as only DDV and Hill were really playable off the bench as it was. You can find guys better than Connaughton for the MLE. 

Then, you run out Giannis, Middleton, Chris Paul, DDV, Brook Lopez. Bring Matthews back, Robin Lopez, and sign 2-3 ring chasing 3 point specialists who can at least offer some resistance on defense. 

 

 

Last edited by MichiganPacker2

I think that sums up most of what Paul represents to the Bucks. I think that the biggest thing he offers is his understanding of the game. The Bucks are not a smart team. Giannis isn’t, Middleton definitely isn’t, and no one else on that roster knows the moment and the game better. 

This is not to say Giannis is dumb. He’s a very instinctive, intuitive player. But he also has a temper, and does play emotionally. He’s still trying to figure out how to be great.

Some guys are born with it. MJ... Kobe... Larry, Magic... Duncan- they just knew how to rise in the moment- to transcend. Some guys have to be shown... Shaq, Lebron, Kawhi... and once they understand they blossom. What’s often forgotten about Lebron was the fact that “his talents” were never in question... it was his mind. And Dwayne Wade, who at 25 had already shown his championship mettle, showed Lebron an awful lot about how to rise to occasion. Before that, Lebron was a lot like Giannis is now- gifted, but didn’t know. Crumpled under the pressure and expectations. Wade excelled in those moments. Always did- at Marquette, in Miami... hell, Lebron shows up and everyone still knew whose team it was. That’s why Lebron left Miami. 

So that “it” thing... how can Chris Paul hELP Giannis understand “it”? For a long time I thought was Paul was overrated. But what he has done in Houston and OKC has helped me understand him better. He’s a brilliant P&R player, and has always been a tough as nails defender. He sees the floor as well as anyone ever has. He’s always in control. And he rises to the moment because he was born to do it. Bur he’s never won it all because a 6’0” player cannot be a Champion in the NBA if he’s the best player on the team. If you pair him with a big with MVP credentials, you’ll get the best of him. And Giannis would learn “it” like Lebron learned “it” from Wade in Miami.  

I’m not sure how you can make any type of Chris Paul deal without including Brook Lopez.

The salaries almost need to match and you can’t deal both George Hill and Eric Bledsoe because someone has to play PG.  Ersan will go for sure because his contract is expiring.   I would keep Hill over Bledsoe.   So there’s about 20MM.  Lopez and DJ Wilson probably get you there.  No picks by the way.  I mean, Chris Paul still has value but his contract should limit the amount of leverage they get back in return and Lopez has more value than George Hill IMO.  

 

Last edited by Tschmack

What about Mike Conley Jr?  

He’s technically in the last year of his contract with a player option for about 32MM.   He certainly wouldn’t be a candidate to opt in long term with the Bucks, but a deal that includes Bledsoe, Hill, and Ersan would work.  Utah is likely losing Mudiay and Clarkson so Hill gives them quality depth and Bledsoe gives them a good defensive player as they struggled defending guards in the postseason. 

Conley had a fantastic season and flies under the radar much more so than Chris Paul and he’s also younger and cheaper.  

@Tschmack posted:

What about Mike Conley Jr?  

He’s technically in the last year of his contract with a player option for about 32MM.   He certainly wouldn’t be a candidate to opt in long term with the Bucks, but a deal that includes Bledsoe, Hill, and Ersan would work.  Utah is likely losing Mudiay and Clarkson so Hill gives them quality depth and Bledsoe gives them a good defensive player as they struggled defending guards in the postseason. 

Conley had a fantastic season and flies under the radar much more so than Chris Paul and he’s also younger and cheaper.  

Conley is certainly an upgrade from Bledsoe, but he's nowhere near the player that Chris Paul is (even this year). He is 2 years younger and is going to make 35 million rather than 45 million. But they are not even close to the same caliber player. Chris Paul is a guaranteed HOFer and a top 25 player all time. Conley is very good player who has never even been top 25 in the league in any year.  To give context, here are what basketballreference.com lists as their career comparables (see attachments). The big thing is that Conley is nowhere near Paul's league in terms of defense (Paul is an eight-time All-NBA defensive player and was first team as recently as 2018).  Conley is nowhere near Paul in terms of a passer (Paul is #4 all-time in assists per game). 

Most important, as Music City says, Chris Paul has the "it" factor. He's got a swagger and a confidence that the Bucks need. He's doesn't back down from anyone but he still stays composed. There would also be zero question about who would be handling the ball in crunch time. 

If they can't swing a deal for Chris Paul, Conley's a good backup option, but the difference at point guard between Paul and Conley is like the difference at wing between Kevin Durant and Khris Middleton. 

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The concern you have with Chris Paul is he’s living a bit off his past reputation and he’s 36.    Not that Conley is a spring chicken either at 32 but Paul was still dominant at that age.  Now?  He’s pretty damn good but won’t ever return to the Clippers or Hornets days. 

I think either guy would be an instant upgrade assuming the Bucks don’t have to gut their roster to acquire them.  That’s the challenge with Paul.  To get him it’s going to require dealing Bledsoe, Ersan, and Hill or B Lopez in any scenario.  If I’m OKC I also want DDV and the first round pick this year also.   That’s a lot even for a decent player like Paul who would be a 2 year rental.  If Giannis decided to leave after next year you have no team left other than Paul and Middleton and it will be tough to convince anyone to sign in Milwaukee hence the draft pick and guys like DDV become more important. 

That’s why I was so interested in the Miami trade banter.  They will have a ton of cap space and younger players.  For Milwaukee, getting younger players back like Herro and Bam is a nice consolation prize for losing Giannis.  

The Bucks are in a tough spot because ideally you want to retain Giannis but you also have to make the team better and you don’t want to give up the farm to get there. A package of Ersan and Bledsoe makes for a decent trade partner because Ersan’s deal expires in a year and Bledsoe’s deal expires in 2 years and he’s the perfect compliment for a team that needs D in the backcourt.   Assuming they kept George Hill and DDV continues to get better I think that’s a solid combo but they need another  backcourt guy that can score and ideally someone that’s good at shooting the 3.   Bogan Bogdonavic comes to mind.   Maybe even a Joe Ingles or Goran Dragic.   

Utah is In an interesting situation.  A couple of their G backups have deals that expire and Donovan Mitchell needs more help in the backcourt defensively.  The Jazz also need a longer term insurance policy if Conley bails which he most certainly will.  I also didn’t realize it’s my understanding Utah had interest in the past with Bledsoe.  

So you package Bled and DDV for Bogdonovic.  Utah covers their bases at both PG and SG and the Bucks get the shooter and scorer they covet.  Then find a way to deal Ersan for additional help. 

@Tschmack posted:

Utah is In an interesting situation.  A couple of their G backups have deals that expire and Donovan Mitchell needs more help in the backcourt defensively.  The Jazz also need a longer term insurance policy if Conley bails which he most certainly will.  I also didn’t realize it’s my understanding Utah had interest in the past with Bledsoe.  

So you package Bled and DDV for Bogdonovic.  Utah covers their bases at both PG and SG and the Bucks get the shooter and scorer they covet.  Then find a way to deal Ersan for additional help. 

Bogdonovic for Bledsoe works straight up in terms of the salaries. But I'd hold out for DDV in the package as well if I were them. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine

 

 

I wanted so badly for Bledsoe to shut up the haters, but the haters win.  After 3 playoff collapses in a row for the Bledshow, he clearly needs a change of scenery.  Maybe could do well somewhere else if he can consistently stay confident in himself and figure out what is wrong with his shot.  For whatever reason as a member of the Bucks he just seems like he puts too much pressure on himself and gets in a mental funk that he can't easily pull himself out of.  

I thought Bledsoe looked like one of the worst guards out there among the teams that are left, and he's too talented to be THAT bad.  Maybe moving somewhere else to the right situation he'll get over some of the things that plagued him come playoff time with the Bucks.  Or maybe there is no right situation for him, and this type of performance is what you'll always see from him when the chips are down.  Whatever the case, maybe it would be best for the Bucks and Bledsoe to part ways, though his contract certainly won't make it easy on the Bucks to shop him. 

Bogdonovic for Bledsoe works straight up in terms of the salaries. But I'd hold out for DDV in the package as well if I were them. 

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine 

I don’t know why Utah makes that trade. He averaged 20ppg and shot 41% from three. I wanted the Bucks to sign him last summer- he’d have been a perfect fit. 

One interesting guy is Kevin Love. He has 3 years and $91M on his deal, but he certainly fits the mold. He doesn’t solve the G problem, but he’s a dangerous shooter and elite rebounder- all things the Bucks could have used in the playoffs this year. 

Meanwhile, Marco Belinelli is a FA, and comes from the Pop system. Would you rather have him or Connaughton? 

And Davis Bertans is also available. He could be a MLE guy for the Bucks. Doesn’t do much beyond hit threes, but he’s deadly. Also played in Pop’s system. 

Paul Milsap is also available. But would have to be cheap. Milsap has a history with Bud on the Hawks. 

Last edited by Music City
@Music City posted:

One interesting guy is Kevin Love. He has 3 years and $91M on his deal, but he certainly fits the mold. He doesn’t solve the G problem, but he’s a dangerous shooter and elite rebounder- all things the Bucks could have used in the playoffs this year. 

He has trouble guarding anyone on the perimeter and he is not a rim protector. He's be hunted in pick and roll. 

Ilyasova shoots the same percentage over his career from 3 that Love does. Love is a better rebounder, but the Bucks only had problems in that department when Giannis went down. 

If Ilysasova was unplayable against the Heat, Love wouldn't have been much better. 

Last edited by MichiganPacker2

Kevin Love would be great all except he’s still owed almost 100MM.  I mean, he makes Middleton’s contract look like a good value.  

Bledsoe is a playoff enigma and it didn’t start with Milwaukee.  I mean, his numbers are solid in the regular season but postseason numbers are awful.  He’s almost 10% worse from 3pt range and FT% and that’s a crazy bad dropoff.  

@Tschmack posted:

Bledsoe is a playoff enigma and it didn’t start with Milwaukee.  I mean, his numbers are solid in the regular season but postseason numbers are awful.  He’s almost 10% worse from 3pt range and FT% and that’s a crazy bad dropoff.  

I don’t think it’s complicated- when you can’t shoot, you get exposed. Hell, Giannis is the same deal. Because he cannot shoot all his other flaws get magnified in the playoffs. Suddenly the decision making gets magnified, and without a shooting ability to fall back on, you’re toast. 

You think about it, that separates just about everyone, doesn’t it? 

The playoffs are a different animal for sure.   You are playing better teams and (usually) facing teams that concentrate more on defense.

Look at James Harden.  In Houston, he’s a 36%+ shooter from 3 during the regular season.  In the playoffs?  He’s not even hitting 33% of his long range shots. 

Not to mention some of his dismal performances especially when facing Golden State in the Finals.  

 

Last edited by Tschmack
@Tschmack posted:

Kevin Love would be great all except he’s still owed almost 100MM.  I mean, he makes Middleton’s contract look like a good value.  

Bledsoe is a playoff enigma and it didn’t start with Milwaukee.  I mean, his numbers are solid in the regular season but postseason numbers are awful.  He’s almost 10% worse from 3pt range and FT% and that’s a crazy bad dropoff.  

He was 4 for 16 from 3 in two playoffs as a reserve with the Clippers and is 32 for 126 from 3 with the Bucks. In other words, he is a career 25% 3 point shooter in both places. 36 for 142 overall. 

Didn’t realize that Ilyasova’s  $7M deal is non guaranteed. That means he basically an “expiring contract” that teams will be interested in taking in a trade. You add him to Bledsoe and now you’re @ $23M. Add Hill you’re @ $33M. 

I don’t know if this is possible, but if they can add Hawes, Leuer, and Sanders to the deal (all settlement money), they’re @ $40M. If you add in the Pacer pick, and like 2 lottery protected picks, is that enough for OKC to jump? They’d be saving a bunch of $$$. 

I think teams can trade a MLE salary slot, but don’t think they can on the dead money settlements.  Although, has that money already been paid?  If so, I’m not sure why they couldn’t but my guess is as a condition of those settlements it has to be included in their cap. 

Ersan will definitely have value.  With unknowns on cap next year due to COVID19 I think teams will be very cautious about taking on salary or future salary.   That being said, it could help a team like the Bucks as free agents may be willing to take a 1 year deal for less money to see how that all may shake out.  It could also mean a guy like Wes Matthews or Rolo choose to opt in for next season as who knows what the free agent landscape will look like? 

Last edited by Tschmack

The Bucks have no room to sign free agents unless they get below the cap. They’re only able to go beyond to keep their own. That does make sign/trades possible, but no outright free agents unless the Bucks cleared a ton from their cap. 

So are there any possible sign/trade opportunities? Not sure... doesn’t look like it. 

There’s been some counterpoint to the Chris Paul push... that aside from Bledsoe, they should look to run it back. That they simply need to add to the core and then hope Giannis can improve. And this I agree with.

Going back and forth in my head about what they’d have to give up to flip the script, I am starting to really wonder if they aren’t better off avoiding the blockbuster and running it back (mostly). If they can get a guy like Paul for spare parts and a couple picks, sure. They’ll be over the cap anyway, into the luxury tax, and then there’s a bunch of junk coming off the books in time got Giannis’ supermax. But let’s say they can’t agree on a deal, and the Knicks get Paul. So be it. They’re not going anywhere, and the Bucks have a lot of other options. 

HERE they warn the Bucks about the folly of the ‘09 Cavs trying to add a past his prime Shaq to the fold and expecting improvement. Paul, though he is coming off a particularly brilliant season, is a considerable risk if they have to give OKC anything of value. The Bucks should hold a pretty hard line with OKC on a Chris Paul trade. 

Meanwhile, Denis Schroeder could be of interest for a MLE. Then the Pelicans might want to save some $$$ and get more shots for their young star, opening the door to add Bledsoe/Hill (plus Ilyasova who will be released) to that team so their offense runs through Ingram and Williamson in exchange for Jrue Holiday. If you have to add a pick, do it. Pels get depth at G and more shots for their stars (plus elite D and savings), Bucks get a stronger offensive player with little drop off on D and a backup G who can drive and score and who played for Budenholzer when he entered the league. 

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Last edited by Music City

Music - good article. While the Shaq trade is a cautionary tale, Chris Paul actually tries to stay in shape. Shaq stopped caring about that a long time before that point. The contract does completely wipe out flexibility, though. 

The other point is that it's going to be very hard to upgrade from Bledsoe for immediately help without sacrificing some other important pieces. 

https://behindthebuckpass.com/...rade-will-difficult/

If Giannis developed a midrange game, they could run everything back (including Bledsoe) and they'd be a much stronger playoff team. But he'll be 26 and may never become a good shooter. 

Adding Paul isn’t a slam dunk given his salary and Milwaukee would likely have to part with at least 2 if not 3 of these 4 - Bledsoe, Hill; DDV, and Lopez.  And probably a #1 pick.  If Paul were 32 maybe but he’s long in the tooth and if he got hurt they would be in serious trouble. 

Rumor is that Darvin Ham is a strong candidate for the Pacers job. if so, Budenholzer might want to consider bringing some of his old colleagues on board in Milwaukee.

Whoever is the shooting coach in San Antonio, pay him whatever it takes to bring him into Milwaukee. 

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