@Hungry5 posted:

Actually, I believe it's because this isn't the 50's or 60's. Initial treatments of COVID-19, based on other known coronas, had little impact. Then there was the early discovery of asymptomatic transmission, which added a level of uniqueness. Also, people travel much more freely around the globe today then they did in the 50's and 60's. There is a greater level of travel between cities in the US today versus back then. The health officials were not as concerned about spread back then because the level of contact tracing rarely moved out of the county where the issue was. 

Asian Flu of '57-'58 killed 116,000 Americans, and that was over more than a year - partly due to the limited travel patterns. We are at 109,000 US deaths from COVID-19 in about 100 days. The '68 Hong Kong flu was a variant influenza that included a component of the '57-'58 virus. 

 

Yes, it spreads faster because we are more mobile, but the fear was because it is spreading faster the health systems would be overrun. The idea was never that it could be contained, because it cannot be.

Asian flu killed 116k. The Wuhan Flu has killed how many exactly? Are we to trust the numbers that are obviously padded? Does George Floyd get counted as dying form Wuhan flu since he had it? Unfortunately that is exactly what is happening across the country.

Medical professionals are being encouraged or even told to ascribe deaths to Wuhan flu because there is more money in it for the medical facilities. The incentive is there to classify every death they can as being Wuhan Flu. 

An better measure today than those classified as being Wuhan Flu is excess death measurements from the actuaries. i.e., how many more people are dying than would normally die. Based on the law of large numbers it's pretty easy to hash out those excess deaths and it isn't anywhere near 100k.

And in comparison, the US has roughly half as many people in 1958 as it does now. 116k deaths on a populations of 160M v. 100k (if that is even close, which I don't think it is) in a population of 330M, seems quite similar.

Then you also need to account for the change in demographics between the late 50s and today. We are older, sicker, fatter and have many more at risk factors than we did in the late 50s. And just like then these viruses tend to kill older, sicker and weakened people.

That's who you protect. Just like we protected kids from polio and didn't quarantine everyone because not everyone was at risk.   

Yes, it spreads faster because we are more mobile, but the fear was because it is spreading faster the health systems would be overrun

Which of course never happened, and yet they kept the lockdowns going on.

I checked this morning and it looks like Brown County has Wisconsin's highest per-capita rate, one that's slightly lower than my county (Ulster, NY), and my county is much lower than all the counties to the east and south of me in NY.

@AtTheMurph posted:

Asian flu killed 116k. The Wuhan Flu has killed how many exactly? 



looks like around 393,000 people.  

@AtTheMurph posted:

Are we to trust the numbers that are obviously padded? 

I'm guessing it is an under representation, but we probably access news differently

@AtTheMurph posted:

 Does George Floyd get counted as dying form Wuhan flu since he had it? Unfortunately that is exactly what is happening across the country.

Pretty sure the world can see how George Floyd died

When the virus hit the images we had were of NYC & Italy. The fear was that this could sweep across the nation with similar effects. In retrospect was it an overreaction? Probably, however if we had done nothing how many scenarios like the meat packing plants would have played out across similar work environments? Would our supply chain have been impaired? How much of it "never over running our healthcare system" due to the lockdown measures? We'll never know this. Sweden is about the only country that did not take drastic measures and now they are questioning if they did the right thing. https://www.theguardian.com/wo...-died-anders-tegnell 

Pretty sure the protests will blow the curve.

My favorite part of this China "hawk" crap was the same people pissing and moaning about China were the same ones willing to overlook our friendly hyper Capitalist Communists to exploit labor to make all our junky shit.  Yes, what a surprise a brutal dictatorship would be working with viruses much like we do at Fort Meade.  Who could've foresaw such an event!  Bunch of fucking hypocrites. 

Last edited by Henry
@FLPACKER posted:

When the virus hit the images we had were of NYC & Italy. The fear was that this could sweep across the nation with similar effects. In retrospect was it an overreaction? Probably, however if we had done nothing how many scenarios like the meat packing plants would have played out across similar work environments? Would our supply chain have been impaired? How much of it "never over running our healthcare system" due to the lockdown measures? We'll never know this. Sweden is about the only country that did not take drastic measures and now they are questioning if they did the right thing. https://www.theguardian.com/wo...-died-anders-tegnell 

Yeah, I much prefer the outcome of a so called overreaction to an under reaction or just pretending we will all be fine. 

Our hospital was critically low on PPE and that's with the so called overreaction possibly preventing a huge surge that would have made it necessary to set up temporary areas to treat inpatient COVID-19 patients. As it was, the ICU area had to overflow into other areas not in use due to elective procedures being put on hold. 

As far as I'm concerned, the measures worked like they were supposed to. People still got sick, people still died. That was expected. I believe we had something like 93 or 95 employees contract the disease which resulted in 100's of extra self-quarantines and a lot of short staffed areas that were luckily filled in by people in procedural areas that could fill in as needed. If the April and May numbers had been double what they were it would have been borderline chaos. 

The only question now is did we do enough and will there be a 2nd surge and more after that. I know we will be wearing face masks and face shields at work for the foreseeable future. 2020 and probably at least the first half of 2021 for sure. 

The complete failure in my mind wasnโ€™t PPE or ventilators but lack of good antibody testing that could allow us to manage this so much more easily than shutting everything down and opening everything up.  All itโ€™s done is piss everyone off because we canโ€™t accuracy assess where we are at on the curve.  

Thatโ€™s why the numbers are flawed no matter how you slice the data.  We have no baseline.  Had we jumped on this back in February my guess is we may have been able to avoid complete shutdowns like weโ€™ve seen.  You could have done what they did in Sweden - quarantine and conduct surveillance on the highest risk groups and allow others to go on with their lives - assuming 50% of the population may have had it. 

If this virus is as contagious as is claimed thereโ€™s a good chance the flu numbers were overreported and C19 was underreported.  This virus has been spreading amongst us since January IMO.

Letโ€™s also not overlook the fact that C19 testing may be 75-80% accurate.  If that. False positives or negatives could be all over the place.  

 

 

 

 

Last edited by Tschmack
@AtTheMurph posted:

 

Asian flu killed 116k. The Wuhan Flu has killed how many exactly? Are we to trust the numbers that are obviously padded? Does George Floyd get counted as dying form Wuhan flu since he had it? Unfortunately that is exactly what is happening across the country.

 

Nobody has died from Wuhan Flu because there is no such thing.  110,000 or many more have died from Covid 19.   Quit posting bullshit. 

@Tschmack posted:

The complete failure in my mind wasnโ€™t PPE or ventilators but lack of good antibody testing that could allow us to manage this so much more easily than shutting everything down and opening everything up.  All itโ€™s done is piss everyone off because we canโ€™t accuracy assess where we are at on the curve.  

Thatโ€™s why the numbers are flawed no matter how you slice the data.  We have no baseline.  Had we jumped on this back in February my guess is we may have been able to avoid complete shutdowns like weโ€™ve seen.  You could have done what they did in Sweden - quarantine and conduct surveillance on the highest risk groups and allow others to go on with their lives - assuming 50% of the population may have had it. 

If this virus is as contagious as is claimed thereโ€™s a good chance the flu numbers were overreported and C19 was underreported.  This virus has been spreading amongst us since January IMO.

Letโ€™s also not overlook the fact that C19 testing may be 75-80% accurate.  If that. False positives or negatives could be all over the place.  

 

 

 

 

Agreed. The first $10  billion or so should have been spent on testing every person in the country. That is the government's failure.

Everything since has been guess work based on incomplete, if not bad information.

@Hungry5 posted:

Who's padding the numbers?

Did "they" also pad the Asian flu numbers you mentioned?

RE: US population now vs 1958... are people done dying from COVID-19?

More risk factors, or only have risk factors vs no risk factors? Are ALL risk known?

Define older, sicker, weakened people?

In Wisconsin, two weeks ago, on May 25, 2020, the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus was 15672 and the deaths from Covid 19 stood at 514. On 6-6-2020, the number of confirmed cases in Wisconsin was 20,620- an increase of 4948 confirmed cases in just two weeks. The death toll on June 6, 1010 was 646. Two weeks ago the Wisconsin death toll from Covid 19 was 514, an increase of 132.  In my County, the number of confirmed cases was 68. On June 6, 2020 the number of confirmed cases in my County stands at 105 cases showing an increase of 37 cases since May 25, 2020. I live in St.Croix County in Wisconsin. St Croix County is  across the river from Minnesota on I-94. I think we are now beginning to see, in St. Croix County, numbers of confirmed cases going up due to the Wisconsin Supreme Court removing Governor Evers' Stay At Home orders. The night those orders were removed, Minnesotans poured over the border just so they could fill our bars and restaurants, as the bars and restaurants in Minnesota were still under stay at home orders or listed as being "unnecessary" businesses, thereby not being open for business, yet. No social distancing measures were used and no face masks were seen in any the pictures of the drinking and partying frenzy, here in Hudson. Pretty much the same scenario happened in Walworth County on Wisconsin's southern border, as Illinoisans poured over that border into Lake Geneva bars and restaurants and also into south side Milwaukee bars and restaurants. 

I think we're getting away from the original intent of this thread and veering into more politics and current events. I'm going to keep this in the X4 Lounge, but remove the link to the Packer Board. Again lets try and keep the rhetoric more reasonable. We've already moderated several posts where people have gone off the rails talking about specific political figures or controversial topics in our society. If you're just hear to make fun of Trump or own the libs, please just go away, don't start shit just to because you can or think its funny. If you're not respectfully discussing racial injustice, protests, police, or one of Bonger's snappy one liners just please save the rant for your Facebook page. That goes for all the Libtards and Deplorables equally.