Packers Off-season prediction/transactions thread

Hungry5 posted:

Ted, get this guy. 

Strengths:

• Physical corner
• Cover corner who rarely allows separation
• Excellent tackler
• Hard hitter
• Can run with receivers in and out of breaks
• Fast feet
• Can quickly flip his hips to turn and run
• Athletic
• Agile
• Can play bump-and-run
• Body control
• Can turn and run with receivers on deep routes
• Intelligent about when he initiates contact
• Ideal height, length
• Not a gambler
• Used to playing on an island
• Should be able to play well in zone
• Fabulous contributor against the run
• Reliable
• Leaping ability

You forgot special teams demon

PackerPatrick posted:

Thanks for the clarification. So, we ran a blocking scheme better suited to Monty when we actually had Lacy at RB? But I can see the need for pass blockers over run blockers. It also explains the value of big bull rushing nose tackles that can walk a center back and why Lindsay was better holding his own against it and why Tretter was better at the next level in run blocking. Thanks GD!

I think both Lacy and Monty are both suited for any scheme really, they're both players with above average vision and instincts. Just because Lacy is big and bulky doesn't mean he's better suited for a power/man scheme, he can feel the cutback lane in a zone run and hit it hard. He doesn't always make the correct decision on zone runs too often opting to stretch out the play wide rather than take the cutback, which I think is overconfidence in his quickness honestly...I think he is still running like he's 235, not realizing he's 260 and not nearly as nimble. Just because Monty is lighter doesn't mean he's a purely a Zone Runner, I think some of his best runs have been on ISO runs between the tackles. 

Most teams run both power and zone blocking.  Long gone are the days of Shanahan's Broncos running out 290 lb linemen and dominating.  I think Lang comes back.  This team has a dearth of veteran leadership and Lang seems to be pretty well respected.  Of course a lot depends on his injury.......

I think Monty will be significantly better next year with a full offseason of learning to play RB (especially blitz pickup).  i still hope Lacy comes back on a deal laden with incentives.  Remember, he averaged over 5 ypc this year before he got hurt, so it's not like he s**t the bed last year.  Still needs to get his weight under control.  Those two would be a nice 1-2 punch.  

Even at his size Lacy has some amazing feet! Video of practice was posted last season in which the RBs were 'running the ropes". Lacy's feet were SIGNIFICANTLY better that Stark's were. 

I wonder how enthused Eddie Lacy will be to sign a "prove it" deal with the Packers when he probably won't get the opportunity to prove it- splitting carries with Monty and all.

grignon posted:

I wonder how enthused Eddie Lacy will be to sign a "prove it" deal with the Packers when he probably won't get the opportunity to prove it- splitting carries with Monty and all.

He split them with Starks previously, and MM likes to go with the "hot hand." there were games where Starks was hot and got the bulk of the carries. And games where Eddie did that.

Does anyone really see Monty getting more than 10 carries a game?

There was a lot of that in 2015 when Lacy wasn't performing well.  He was showing contract year production last season until the injury. Now I expect he's looking to earn the last, biggest payday of his career.  He won't get it this year because of the lingering questions. Will he get it next year if he's only carries the ball 120 times?

Will Monty get more than 10 carries? Probably depends on the flow of the game.

Sure.  Ty had 1 game with more than 9 carries in the regular season.  Two in the playoffs (both 11 carries).

Ty should get about 10 carries a game, that is probably what he is best suited for.  I'd even say if he averaged 10 carries a game, we probably got a pretty damn good season out of Ty.  

I would have no interest in Mario Williams but it wouldn't be surprising if Ted does.  There are a lot of similarities between Williams today and the Peppers of 2014.  Both are the type of player that could lose a step or two and still be one of the most athletic guys on the field because they are just that naturally gifted.  Both were coming off down years where people were questioning if their physical skills have/had greatly eroded.  Both have/had been subject to questions regarding their motivation.  If you buy into Pro Football Focus' grades, the grade between Peppers of 2013 and Williams of 2016 are pretty similar.  Biggest difference is that Williams battled injury problems this last season, but none of them were significant enough to figure to have a long-term impact.  And don't discount Williams at OLB because of his 290+ pounds, the guy is a freak athlete.

I wouldn't go the Williams route but (A) Thompson loves athletes on defense (B) Williams will be really cheap coming off a 13 games played season with only 5 starts and all the other baggage (C) would not figure in the compensatory pick formula.  If Ted is committed to bringing back both Perry and Jones, then Williams would be out of the picture because they run out of roster spaces with Matthews, Fackrell and probably Elliott still in the mix.

10 for Ty leaves about 10-14 between Lacy, Rip, Cobb, and Rodgers. Oh, and the occasional jet sweep to Janis.

PackerJoe posted:

I would have no interest in Mario Williams but it wouldn't be surprising if Ted does. 

Has Williams been cut or is about to be cut by his current team?  If he is a unrestricted free agent it would cost Ted a comp pick.  In that case TT would NOT sign him.  If he is cut first, and TT signs him, it doesn't affect any comp picks.  That is the arrangement when he signed Peppers, Cook, Woodson, Guion, etc.  I don't think he has signed a true UFA after his first year as GM in GB. 

This is an important distinction when discussing TT and free agency.  As much as I would like him to get some true blue talent at CB, if it means TT signing a UFA, lets just say I wouldn't bet the farm on it. 

PackerJoe posted:

And don't discount Williams at OLB because of his 290+ pounds, the guy is a freak athlete.

Didn't he play OLB for a time in Houston? I don't remember him particularly excelling at it. 

Anyone else read anything about us picking up Connor Barwin? Author does not cite his source.

http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/c...dont-need-nick-perry

Dr.-Ka-Bong posted:

Sure.  Ty had 1 game with more than 9 carries in the regular season.  Two in the playoffs (both 11 carries).

Ty should get about 10 carries a game, that is probably what he is best suited for.  I'd even say if he averaged 10 carries a game, we probably got a pretty damn good season out of Ty.  

He's a utility guy plain and simple.  If Eddie is getting the bulk of the carries Monty is a huge chance of pace RB who you're also setting up for the short passing game.  Monty isn't your feature back.  He's your big ass Sproles.

FLPACKER posted:

Anyone else read anything about us picking up Connor Barwin? Author does not cite his source.

 

http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/c...dont-need-nick-perry

I can't stand these type of articles.  It's pure Nagler bull****.  The guy writes the article like it's a fact and half way through you get the subtle underpinnings its more "this is my bull**** opinion". 

FLPACKER posted:

Anyone else read anything about us picking up Connor Barwin? Author does not cite his source.

 

http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/c...dont-need-nick-perry

I think it is just speculation.  I haven't read anything about it anywhere else.  And really, depending on exactly how much Perry is looking for, the Pack may not save much if at all anyway.  There is a lot we don't know, and it isn't a done deal. 

Not sure if I'm all that thrilled with this stat: 

The #Packers had 17 former undrafted free agents combine for 3,657 snaps in 2016, an increase from 2,766 in 2015.

#Ted

#WeDoWhatWeDo

Anyone know where the "news broke" about their lack of interest in Perry. The only reason he won't be back in GB is if he prices himself out, GB is likely interested at the right price. 10+ million is likely out of the question and there's no guarantee another team will pay that either. His 1 season was not THAT impressive that another team is going to blow their wad to get him, performance wise his body of work doesn't stack up against Jerry Hughes (who signed a 5 year/45 mil deal 2 years ago), but he's been better than Pernell McPhee (who got 5 years/38.75 mil, 2 years ago) which (according to Spotrac) puts his market value around 8.5 million. GB signed him to a 5.5 million deal last offseason coming off a far less impressive season than the one he just had, so it's reasonable to assume they may be willing to give him a raise. That's assuming HE wants to be in GB though, I think more often than not that's the reason we see guys leave. 

FLPACKER posted:

Anyone else read anything about us picking up Connor Barwin? Author does not cite his source.

 

http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/c...dont-need-nick-perry

This came from a 12up.com article claiming the Packers are one of like 3 teams allegedly interested in Barwin. Hasn't been that effective recently, had a down 2016, wrong side of 30, and looks like nothing of the kind of FA signing/trade Teddy would do.

But of course, just like in previous years, agents can claim GB is interested in X player and no one from 1265 will deny it.

Same as it ever was. 

RE: Perry, I believe it was Jason Wilde on ESPN Milwaukee who alluded to the fact that Perry really isn't all that interested in remaining in GB. 

For one, unlike Lang, Lacy, Cook etc Perry has said nothing about wanting to stay in GB, that he hopes to be re-signed, that family/friends are here etc. Complete opposite of someone like TJ Lang who's said as much over and over. Same with Eddie (who stuck around the facility all season) and Cook who said he loves playing with 12 and wants to stay. 

For two, many believe Perry would really prefer being in a 4-3 and go back to the position he played in college. To him it's less wear and tear and he's more comfortable in it. 

Purely my opinion, but I highly doubt he stays in GB. 

Grave Digger posted:

PackerJoe posted:

And don't discount Williams at OLB because of his 290+ pounds, the guy is a freak athlete.

Didn't he play OLB for a time in Houston? I don't remember him particularly excelling at it. 

He was very good at OLB for Houston. 

I agree P'Boi, it will be interesting to see what 4-3 pursues him because he will have some options:

4-3 & Hybrid Teams/Cap Space:

• SF/83.6
• JAX/66.8
• NE/61.1
• CAR/57.1
• CIN/47.1
• PIT/43
• NO/32.7
• ATL/28.7
• BAL/18.2
• DAL/5.3 (more if they dump Romo)

Who knows how John Lynch will be, he may end up being a wild spender or a more responsible roster builder. I'm guessing he will get pressure from Jed to build that team up fast though. Jacksonville is always game for blowing big money. New England prefers to get players on the cheap, so I doubt they give Perry 10+, same for Cincy and Pitt. Carolina and New Orleans are likely options for him since they need to keep pace with the Falcons passing O.  

There isn't much difference between what Perry does in GB vs what he would do in a 4-3 defense. ....we'll see if its the Decider.

Perry will be a tough one to sign:  - we already know that Perry and the Packers couldn't  agree on his value a year ago, hence the 1 year deal. His excellent performance in 2016 moved the needle closer to what he and his agent wanted in terms of compensation. Losing Perry leaves GB with a substantial hole in the defense and  finding a suitable rookie/FA isn't so easy a caveman could do it.

Grew up in Detroit, played in SoCal, not sure where he will be happiest going forward. He will have offers, there's a billion in unspent cap looking for a home and not nearly enough available talent to suck up all those available dollars

I think Grave Digger's Perry to Hughes/McPhee is pretty valid.  The 8.5 million is a reasonable number but since the cap goes up about 7% each year the 8.5 million becomes 9.75 million in present day value.  If Ted wants to take Perry off the market before the start of free agency he's probably going to have to go well over that number...I had projected 11.6 million in order to do that.

Perry may well want to go back to play 4-3 DE but he's an NFL unknown in that role.  I think he'd have to settle for less money in order to do that.  Sounds like Chandler Jones will be franchised and Perry will be the #2 OLB in free agency behind Melvin Ingram and with roughly half the league playing a 3-4 he's a pretty good bet to hit the average value per season mark of 10 million.  Maybe he could get that as a 4-3 DE, but if it happens it would make him one of the top 5 paid 4-3 DEs in football and that looks like a reach to me since he hasn't played a traditional DE role in the NFL. 

I'm not a big fan of Connor Barwin at this point and would pass but it wouldn't be all that surprising if Thompson was interested.  The Packers could lose Perry, Peppers and Jones.  Fackrell didn't look very good last year.  Maybe Matthews' injury really impacted his play last year, or maybe Matthews has begun the slide into mediocrity?  Elliott is just a guy on the defensive unit.  Everyone at OLB is a big question mark right now.  The interest in Barwin could be as simple as Thompson thinking he needs to add two bodies to the OLB group this off-season but doesn't want to spend two draft picks on OLBs (especially after spending a third rounder on Fackrell last year).  Barwin has been bad for the last two seasons, and as a result his price tag would be on the low end.  It's possible that it would be so low that the team that signs him would be doing it for the sole purpose of adding depth.  If he's on the market then the Eagles cut him so he wouldn't factor in the compensatory pick formula.  The downside is that he's 30 years old and can't play the run.  The upside is that he hasn't missed a game in 6 years and in a limited role probably still has the talent to post 7 or 8 sacks.  I'm the first guy to criticize Thompson for having too many inexperienced guys on the roster considering most of those players will never do anything of significance, so it would be hard for me to bash Thompson for bringing in a player like Barwin.  If the coaching staff does their job and identify the keepers and the non-keepers right from the start, then Barwin is pushing the 53rd guy off the roster and one-year of Barwin is very likely to be more valuable than 4 years of the 53rd guy on the roster.  We've kept Jayrone Elliott around for long enough and to this point he hasn't looked like he was worth keeping around this long.  And by the way, I know Elliott is a core special teams player but when the special teams has been bad for a decade now then what real value is there in that?  

At this point in his career Barwin is basically a poor man's Rob Ninkovich... probably a good run defender, assignment sure, high effort, etc. He's not the answer to the pass rush opposite CM3 though, he's 1st/2nd down grinder. If the Eagles dangled him in an effort to move from Round 6 to Round 5 I would probably take him if he also agreed on a new contract. Probably the best thing he would provide is veteran leadership, he's a pretty vocal guy I think?

He's your big ass Sproles.

I'm all for getting younger. Don't sign Perry for crazy money.

FWIW, here is the article where the claim originated.

Among the teams who could have interest in Barwin are the Green Bay Packers, the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts to name just three. All of those teams have room under the cap and not coincidentally all three teams use a 3-4 defensive scheme.

It's not even attributed anonymously. It's just the reporter straight up spitballing who might have interest given some flimsy criteria. 

Goalline posted:

I'm all for getting younger. Don't sign Perry for crazy money.

Who is coaching up the young guys at OLB ? If your OLB coaches are a strength, like they are at CB, then younger can work. If you aren't as confident in your OLB coaching prowess then sometimes a vet is a better fit for a final four team

Perry got injured pretty frequently in GB, that's why his 2016 deal was mostly roster bonus for being active on game day.

If he played, he got paid. If he sat, he got shat. Packers won't have that luxury this time around

I don't think Perry is enough of a difference maker. Good season, but...

He's not a difference maker, but he had a lot of snaps that you have to replace.  And he made some real fine plays on the QB.

We fans have to re-adjust our cap numbers because the rate of increase means non-difference makers make serious cash in today's NFL.

Snap Counts: Perry 604, Peppers 584, D. Jones  548

That's 1600 snaps at OLB* who are all FAs this year....can't let all of them go

http://www.pro-football-refere...2016-snap-counts.htm

* some of those snaps were interior rushers in the NASCAR package

In all fairness, every time perry gets close to being a difference maker in the defense, he suffers a serious injury. I would re-sign him for sure.

I guess I'm the odd man out, I'd pay Perry 10+.   Best run defender on our team outside of Daniels and is just starting to get comfortable as a pass rusher from OLB.   

I'd like to see what Perry could do with a faster, more talented defensive coordinator 

I'd pay Perry, but only because I have no idea if Elliott or Fackrell will make the jump. Also, I don't know if it is players or plays, so Dom Capers sucks®.

If Perry is not signed I predict Ted will at least kick the tires on Melvin Ingram.

http://gnb.247sports.com/Bolt/...lvin-Ingram-51412226

Perry was a DE miscast as a OLB and Ingram is listed as a DE but may be better suited as a OLB perhaps as an "Elephant" type.

Dr.-Ad-Nauseum posted:

I'd like to see what Perry could do with a faster, more talented defensive coordinator 

I'd like to see what you could do with new material

You know, if Dom Capers sucks® just embraced the fact he is bald, he'd probably be a better DC.