FinnLander posted:
CUPackFan posted:

Hawk is a huge reason why I ignore measurables at the combine for ILBs.  Take a look at the two sets of stats below from pro day/combines.  

(SNIP)

 

First is Hawk, second is Luke Kuechly.  Yeah, measurables on an ILB mean ****.  Instincts are everything at that position.  

Neat trick.  Now pick 2 ILBers projected in the 2nd round of the upcoming draft & tell us which one will be merely adequate & which one will be a stud.

Antonio Morrisson and Joe Schobert will be studs. Scooby Wright will be a dud. Mark it down.

I call this the one-name special:

 

27: R1P27
ILB REGGIE RAGLAND ALABAMA
 
57: R2P26
OT JASON SPRIGGS INDIANA
 
88: R3P25
TE AUSTIN HOOPER STANFORD
 
122: R4P27
DT HASSAN RIDGEWAY TEXAS
 
151: R5P24
OLB JOE SCHOBERT WISCONSIN
 
182: R6P25
CB ERIC MURRAY MINNESOTA
 
216: R7P27
G PARKER EHINGER CINCINNATI
PackerJoe posted:

Hawk showed outstanding athletic ability at Ohio State and when he first came to Green Bay.  The groin injury he had in 2008 seemed to be a big blow to his career...he never ran the same after that.

His backpedalling speed increased as he got older

Pikes Peak posted:
PackerJoe posted:

Hawk showed outstanding athletic ability at Ohio State and when he first came to Green Bay.  The groin injury he had in 2008 seemed to be a big blow to his career...he never ran the same after that.

His backpedalling speed increased as he got older

Only when tackling at the first down marker.

Rusty posted:

I call this the one-name special:

 

27: R1P27
ILB REGGIE RAGLAND ALABAMA
 
57: R2P26
OT JASON SPRIGGS INDIANA
 
88: R3P25
TE AUSTIN HOOPER STANFORD
 
122: R4P27
DT HASSAN RIDGEWAY TEXAS
 
151: R5P24
OLB JOE SCHOBERT WISCONSIN
 
182: R6P25
CB ERIC MURRAY MINNESOTA
 
216: R7P27
G PARKER EHINGER CINCINNATI

I need a towel now.

Tyler Ervin is a younger James Starks. One cut, not much wiggle, upright runner, solid speed.

Braxton Miller is an interesting one to me.  I live close to Columbus and I unfortunately have seen every game of Braxton's career and I just don't see a body of work that shows a 2nd round pick  Fast yes but he really wasn't used much outside of the occasional running play that did nothing.  He did have some nice TD catches though. 

Pikes Peak posted:
FLPACKER posted:

I see Ervin as smaller, more elusive , & more explosive than Starks. 

Is Crockett a player?

I really like Crockett, he runs like his hairs on fire. However he does not have the speed that these two have, which I think our offense is in dire need of.

Braxton is a fantastic athlete, but where does he fit in GB? Unless the injuries to Jordy, Adams or Monty are worse than expected I can't imagine they look at Miller. If they hadn't just taken Monty I would buy it or if there wasn't real promise from Abby and Janis displayed. 

Miller is very raw, but he's almost an Odell Beckham-type athlete. He gets compared to Cobb, which I think is more because of his position history, but I think he ends up playing outside and I think someone jumps on him pretty early. He'd be a heck of a piece in Oakland, for example. 

Of course the Browns could take Wentz and maybe get him at the top of Round 2 and ruin them both.

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out between now and draft day.  But if the draft where today, I don't think things fall all that well for Big Ted in round one.

My gut feeling is that with the first round pick he'll want to grab an impact pass-rusher (DL or OLB) or an elite pass-catching tight end.  It's possible that only one tight end (Hunter Henry) will carry a first or second round grade and chances are better than 50% that he will be gone when the Packer's first rounder comes up.  The pass-rusher with easily the most upside likely to be available when the Packers pick is Noah Spence but I don't think Ted would pick him because of significant character issues.  All the defensive linemen with top pass-rush upside are likely to be gone when the Packer's pick comes up.  I think the best player that would make sense for Green Bay is Kansas State offensive lineman Cody Whitehair.  He fits what Ted looks for in offensive linemen perfectly, but I don't think Ted will want to take an offensive lineman that early. 

I still think it will be Shilique Calhoun, for some reason. He has size to set the edge, good pass rush skills and is reportedly a good locker room/leadership guy. He's a lot like Nick Perry, in my mind, though probably a bit more agile. Late first to early second seems to be where he'll land also. 

Using the Draftek board: 

27: R1P27
DE SHILIQUE CALHOUN
MICHIGAN ST
57: R2P26
DT JARRAN REED
ALABAMA
88: R3P25
TE HUNTER HENRY
ARKANSAS
122: R4P27
DE SHELDON RANKINS
LOUISVILLE
151: R5P24
S KEVIN BYARD
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
182: R6P25
ILB KRIS FROST
AUBURN
216: R7P27
TE JAKE MCGEE
FLORIDA
Using the Matt Miller Big Board
 
27: R1P27
OLB SHILIQUE CALHOUN
MICHIGAN STATE
57: R2P26
TE HUNTER HENRY
ARKANSAS
88: R3P25
DT ADOLPHUS WASHINGTON
OHIO STATE
122: R4P27
WR BRAXTON MILLER
OHIO STATE
151: R5P24
TE JAKE MCGEE
FLORIDA
182: R6P25
OLB JOE SCHOBERT
WISCONSIN
216: R7P27
RB TYLER ERVIN
SAN JOSE STATE

And here's where BPA runs in to redundancy (Fanspeak board):

27: R1P27
OLB NOAH SPENCE
EASTERN KENTUCKY
57: R2P26
DT SHELDON RANKINS
LOUISVILLE
88: R3P25
DT AUSTIN JOHNSON
PENN STATE
122: R4P27
DT MATT IOANNIDIS
TEMPLE
151: R5P24
OT JOE HAEG
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
182: R6P25
OLB JOE SCHOBERT
WISCONSIN
216: R7P27
TE JAKE DUZEY
IOWA
ammo posted:

I would trust TT's evaluation of BPA better than anyone else's.  If Helmet Hair or McShay were any good they would be on a NFL staff and not blathering on ESPN. 

Guys like Pat Kirwin, Daniel Jeremiah, Greg Gabriel, etc. all have done the job, and support many of the other guys who now do the same thing. The first thing they'll tell you is that the biggest difference between what they did then and now is they now don't have access to all the personal interviews and information actual scouts do. They don't get to dig in to the personal lives of all the kids they're scouting. People with understanding and a discerning eye can do film study, it's the info about the guy's attitude and aptitude that they don't have access to. 

But the point was that when you say "Best Player Available" (which isn't exactly true anyway) if you truly follow that mantra, it's a fool's errand to count on talent matching your need at every turn. That's where prudent free agent spending comes in.   

TT takes the BPA on his board every time. Why would anyone take the 2nd or 4th or 10th best player on their board? TT's board doesn't match anyone else's though, it's why it's his board. Also I think he uses Bonger's consensus board as a reference, but only the 11th version...any fewer than that and it's not truly and up-to-date consensus and any more would just be over analyzing.

Which is a big part of the reason why they end up with gaping holes at certain positions. When the guys in the value tier simply don't match the team's needs, do you grab a guy who can play, or just say "**** it, we still have Aaron Rodgers for a few more years and maybe we'll get lucky along the way"?

Grave Digger posted:

So you're advocating drafting for need and signing free agents? A proven strategy in the league for sure. Tampa must be polishing their 6th Super Bowl trophy at this point and the probably adding additional space for this year!

Yeah, except that's the exact opposite of what I said. 

But if you think having a Hall-of-Fame QB with a mostly solid roster racking up participation trophies is good enough, that's on you. 

I think that's generally how the NFL goes. There's a reason we end up with a different SB winner every year. That's why some players and coaches go careers without winning any SBs. It should be an expectation every year, but the reality is that's not going to happen. We aren't squandering Aaron Rodgers career, Peyton Manning has had to hang on until 40 just to get another shot to win another one. I will take McCarthy/Thompson and chance to win every year over one chance and mediocrity. 

For ****s sake, I don't think anyone is saying they are keen on being a runner up all the time.  I think we would all be happy about any strategy that netted us a Lombardi, but all thing being equal, some of us like the draft and develop strategy that puts us in the mix year after year over leaning on free agency to fill holes (from poorly drafting and developing).  

Again, how can you develop what you don't draft? Inside linebacker has been a parade of washout, late-round, marginal-talent, OLBs lining up next to AJ Hawk. Oh, wait, there was there was Seventh-Round Sam, and throw in D.J. Hobbit five years ago prior to 4th-round 42, . None of those guys were even red-chip NFL talent. 

That's quite different than going after a wideout in free agency when TT spends a second or a third on a pass catcher most years. 

So who was drafted, that you think shouldn't have been drafted, that could be replaced by the right linebacker who was in the draft, drafted after that spot, without the benefit of hindsight?  

I keep hearing how Ted refused to draft "_________'s" replacement.  It's not like Ted skipped the draft that year.  He's filling lots of holes, some we haven't even seen spring a leak yet, with the most talented player he sees available.  

El-Ka-Bong posted:

I keep hearing how Ted refused to draft "_________'s" replacement.  It's not like Ted skipped the draft that year.  He's filling lots of holes, some we haven't even seen spring a leak yet, with the most talented player he sees available.  

You're making my point. If there's flaming bags of dog crap at a position in the draft at that slot, then take the better prospect and grab a free agent to fill the glaring hole with someone who is decent, even if it's not a long-term answer. 

I decided to help The Bares out with addressing their most intensive need:

 

11: R1P11
QB CARSON WENTZ NORTH DAKOTA STATE
 
41: R2P10
QB PAXTON LYNCH MEMPHIS
 
72: R3P9
QB CHRISTIAN HACKENBERG PENN STATE
 
103: R4P8
QB DAK PRESCOTT MISSISSIPPI STATE
 
138: R5P11
QB CARDALE JONES OHIO STATE
 
167: R6P10
QB GUNNER KIEL CINCINNATI
 
186: R6P29
QB CODY KESSLER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
 
189: R6P32
QB JACOBY BRISSETT NC STATE
 
198: R7P9
QB BRANDON ALLEN ARKANSAS
El-Ka-Bong posted:

That assumes the free agents a) want to come, b) are worth the hassle, c) an upgrade over the drafted and developed folks.  

*d) exist

If they meet all the criteria, they are named Julius Peppers.  

So you're claiming the Factory of Sadness and the rebuilding Colts are more desirable destinations than a contending Green Bay team? 

Or are you saying Winston Moss sucks and is the problem even though he's been kept on staff and promoted for the last decade? Even so, who have they drafted at the position to even develop? Do you expect a seventh-round, marginal-talent rookie to turn in to a solid starter after a single training camp? 

Don't understand why Thompson didn't sign these guys.

FoS 2015 FA signings 

CB Tramon Williams
WR Dwayne Bowe
WR Brian Hartline
DT Randy Starks
WR/ST Marlon Moore
RB/ST Shaun Draughn
P Spencer Lanning
QB Thaddeus Lewis

 

Colts 2015 FA signings

RB Frank Gore
WR Andre Johnson
DE Trent Cole
DE Kendall Langford
SS Mike Adams
CB Darius Butler
OT Todd Herremans
QB Matt Hasselbeck
G Joe Reitz

Nice strawman. Go back a couple of years and look at Karlos Dansby and D'Qwell Jackson for examples. 

or last year: Josh Mauga (3 yr/$8 mil), Brandon Marshall (1 yr/$585k), Jerell Freeman (1 yr/ $2.35 mil). That's ignoring the guys who made bigger money. 

Herschel posted:

I still think it will be Shilique Calhoun, for some reason. He has size to set the edge, good pass rush skills and is reportedly a good locker room/leadership guy. He's a lot like Nick Perry, in my mind, though probably a bit more agile. Late first to early second seems to be where he'll land also. 

Calhoun is a tough call.  Combine makes or breaks him.  Sometimes he looks quick and fluid, other times he looks just like a guy.  Ted loves athletes on defense, and I think Calhoun falls into the category where Ted will want him to prove it in Indy.

I will tell you what I love about Calhoun: he's fundamentally sound against the run. He can stack up Tackles and TEs and keep his containment. He's strong and stout enough that he doesn't get bullied and he has long enough arms that he doesn't let blockers get inside him. A lot of unselfish play. He's shown flashes of real talent as a pass rusher, bending the edge, but if he doesn't win with speed then he doesn't win that battle...however he doesn't give up on plays and gets the majority of his sacks from effort plays. 

I think he'd be a solid choice in round 1, even with a so-so Combine. The tape is there with him. If he burns it up at the combine I could see him climb higher, but right now I say Late 1st is a good spot. If he showed more polish as a pass rusher he would be higher.

Pikes Peak posted:

The mothership has GB taking the tight end from Ark.....whatever that is worth

If he makes to #27 that would be my guess as well.  I think Ted would favor taking a pass-rusher first, but here the choice could come down between Spence and Henry and Ted would probably favor Henry in that scenario when factoring in Spence's off-the-field issues.

The flip side of that is that it will be much easier for Ted to find a decent pass-catching tight end candidate later in the draft.  Guys with good pass-rush upside, all those guys could very well be gone once it gets to the later portion of round two.

My thoughts exactly.  Best case, you get a Todd Gurley - an all-pro caliber player ready late in year 1.  Most likely, you get a Willis Macgahee - sit out a full year to rehab but get a very good player for a long time.  Worst case, it's Javon Walker - struggles to ever regain the athleticism he had before the injury (sorry, was struggling for an example of blown out knee ruining a promising career).  

Problem is, if the medical reports are good, Smith goes much higher and the Packers never have a chance.  If the medical reports aren't good, he drops to the Packers who then have to decide if it's worth the risk.  Packers haven't taken a medical risk in the early rounds since Harrell, so will be interesting.  

I agree, in part because I don't think there is one worth a first-rounder. Jake McGee of Miami intrigues me a bit later. He's kind of a cross between Clive Walford and Marques Colston, IMO, in that he has a similar skill set to Walford, but lighter on blocking though a bit better split wide and in the seam. 

DH13 posted:

TT's board isn't going to have a RD1 TE.

I'd agree. In most mock drafts, there is just one where Hunter Henry went in the 1st. Most I'm seeing has him either in the 2nd or even the 3rd round. I'd love for GB to be able to take him in those rounds but I doubt he'll last much past 45-50th overall. So either TT will reach for him at 27 (that won't happen) or he'll need to trade up in the 2nd (highly doubtful).

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