@Grave Digger posted:If the cap is flat or goes up at all (still possible) then GB could easily make room to keep Jones and possible others (likely not Linsley).
now that were back to the Jones watch, what is the possibility of tagging him ?
@Henry posted:It just actually has to happen.
I'm not particularly broken up about Watt simply because as everyone is saying, cap.
Can't draft a DL in 5th round and pick up a scrub and call it a day.
Yes. You can't limit your moves to replace Martinez with Kirksey and taking a flier on Kamal Martin.
I still last year's moves go back to the fact they didn't think Rodgers was going to be as good as he was. All their decisions were about building for the future and getting the cap under control for 2022-23. There is no way that you don't do more to improve the 2019 defense that just got blown off the field in the 2019 title game by the Niners if you think you are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
I think it depends on what the FT number is. I think in 2020 it was like $15M for the franchise tag and $12M for the transition tag. Either of those numbers are simply not workable for our cap in '21. I did see a discussion about the tag being lowered for '21 to like $8M, which if that happened is much more workable until a deal could be reached. Not sure that happens though and I doubt a tag is in the future, if it was then there wouldn't be reports of mutual interest in free agency (i.e. Jones to Miami). If Jones knew he would be tagged then what's the point.
Don't discount the athletic ego's influence on a player's sense of which teams are contenders. "With me, they are." is probably common among any starter changing teams.
I am surprised how similar the Card's defensive numbers were to the Packer's last year. One big difference is how much much they had to blitz to get their 4th most sacks (and 6th most YAC). JJ Watt should reduce that necessity quite a bit.
Aaron Jones is 26 years old and has made about 3 million TOTAL in his career. That's a lot of money to most of us, but after taxes it's not like he's set for life yet. When RBs go they go quick, and then Jones is probably looking at making 60K a year for the rest of his life. He needs to get a lot of guaranteed money and set himself up for life while he has the chance.
He 100% needs to get every guaranteed dollar he can out of this contract.
If the Packers don't tag him.
A very brief scan of the internet says that a RB's franchise tag number is 11.1 million for a one-year contract in 2021. I agree that Jones needs to maximize his money through his next contract. From a Packer franchise perspective, why wouldn't they put the franchise tag on AJ for 2021? That leaves GB with two viable options... They can pay him the 11.1 million contract or they can trade him to a team willing to give him a multi-year contract at a price he is seeking. Unless I'm missing something here, the last thing GB should do is just let the guy walk out the door.
I thought the franchise tag came with a no trade clause?
I think you can withdraw the tag but not be able to tag another player until the new NFL year.
If they withdraw the tag he can sign anywhere and the Pack would get a comp pick in 2022.
@H5 posted:I would. Difference might be how I chose to use/spend it.
Blow and prostitutes again, H5?
Watt coming to GB may have been a good move if he signed with the express intent of chasing a ring. At this point, he's made the bulk of his $$$. He has every right to entertain bids, but there are notable factors against him, namely his age and injury history. Peppers came to GB and played well in stretches, and still couldn't get a ring...many would say partly due to Peppers himself directing an interceptor to lie down. Watt would have made an interesting story, but I couldn't care less that he's going elsewhere. It's better that it's decided on March 1st, and that distraction is gone.
The way it has gone for this Packers team is that we cannot say, to anyone, to come to GB and chase a ring with Rodgers. We need to get past the NFCCG, first. FAs out there will look at what GB's front office is doing or has done to put GBP over the top. Last year's draft left everyone bewildered. We need to draft some impact players, in this draft, and from what I've seen and read, most impact players should be off the board in by the end of Round 3. There is also talk of GB moving down the board. Depending on where they move to, we may get more picks, but will be lucky to get the rookies that can make a difference. It sucks to draft at the bottom of every round, but that means we had a good season, the year before. FA will also not hold answers for the Packers with their cap situation. We will have a difficult time trying to sign any of our own FAs, let alone someone else, at any other position of need.
Richard Sherman wants to play 2 more years. He will not be retained by the 49ers because their cap status is worse than GB's. He made the Pro Bowl in 2019, then played in 5 games last year before going down with an injury. He's still playing at a high level. Greg Rosenthal said he'd likely want 5-7 mil a year and Sherman has said he wants to go to a SB contender to round out his career.
Kyler Fackrell won't be retained by the Giants in all probability. Like what happened with the Smith bros, Fackrell got buried behind the depth charts for the Giants and didn't play a lot until mid-season when Lorenzo Carter had a season ending injury. Then Fackrell himself had an injury which took him out from week 12 to week 17. He would come cheap, can still play the run pretty well, and is 2 seasons removed from double digit sacks.
The above moves are more realistic with what Gute could do in FA. Both players would fill needs, especially Sherman. Fackrell has a motor and won't loaf it like Preston Smith did much of last season. He obviously knows the defense well and production-wise, can put up similar numbers to Smith for much cheaper in 2021 if they let Smith go.
If Gerp signs fucking Fackrell over Preston he's insane. Or just signing Fackrell period. As shitty as season Preston had he was also asked to do different different things in the defense and didn't fare well. Fackrell had a flukey double digit sack season and nothing else.
How can Fackrell obviously know the defense when it hasn’t even been implemented yet?
He does know how to get tossed around by Marcedes Lewis so it might be worth the entertainment value.
I’ll pass on Fackrell. Hank summed it up best. He “made plays” like a QB falling down but isn’t the answer at OLB even as a backup.
Preston Smith is a solid player. He’s just not a 16MM player.
Sherman is interesting because he’s got credibility and is a good locker room leadership guy. Only question is if he can still play?
A calf injury would seem to be easy to overcome in an offseason. Not sure if it's part of a trend of getting older and more susceptible. I don't think it's a horrible idea. Even at a diminished level he's better than King and with a better injury history too. Also allows the luxury of giving a CB pick time to develop.
AZ Cards? Watt is he thinking? $31 mil for 2 years. Oh right, show me the money!
Well I would have loved him in green and gold but that'$ not the Packer way.
@mrtundra posted:The way it has gone for this Packers team is that we cannot say, to anyone, to come to GB and chase a ring with Rodgers. We need to get past the NFCCG, first. FAs out there will look at what GB's front office is doing or has done to put GBP over the top.
Agree, this is how New England was able to sign so many vets on the cheap or a one year deal. Come get a ring.
@Music City posted:Aaron Jones’ last play in a Packers uniform, as great as he has been for 2+ years, will be the fumble that may very well have cost the Packers a trip to the Super Bowl. Not fair... kid’s a good one. One you root for.
Reading articles saying Jones may be amenable to having the Franchise Tag put on him. Also read that Gute wants to keep Preston Smith, in GB.
If reports of Smith prove accurate I just hope it turns out better than Gutey's horrible decision to stick with Jimmy Graham.
Cut Smith & bring him back at a reduced price? He had BY FAR the worst " salary > performance" equation on our roster last season.
He had a bad season. The year before he was a double digit monster with Z. I don't see cutting bait over one shitty season that resulted in the DC being let go. P isn't a Perry type were he had one legit season, cashed in and then crapped out. He's got a decent track record overall.
If there's one thing about getting Matt Foley as the DC is his connection with P and LB seemingly being his coaching strong suit. Yes, P shit the bed on one year of a big ass contract. If the numbers don't add up when trying to bring back Jones then he gets the axe but P has a pretty good track record overall.
I think PSmith, maybe as much as anyone, will benefit from from the Pettine to Barry change. He knows Barry and I would expect we will see less coverage and more attacking from him based on Barry’s “Fast and Furious” mantra.
From Over The Cap:
$8M is absolutely affordable for Aaron Jones considering his market value is probably $13-15M per year. Don’t even hesitate. Work put a long term deal to get the ‘21 cap number down to a more manageable $6M or so and lock down an elite talent multiple years.
Attachments
Images (1)
Drew Rosenhaus would be committing malpractice to let Jones play at 8 million next year. Henry, Kamara, D. Cook, and McCaffrey have all signed recent extensions that provided guaranteed money of over 25 million.
It's the guaranteed money that matters, especially for a RB. Cook got 5 years and 63 million with 28 million guaranteed from the Vikings. Jones is not as good as Cook, but has stayed healthier over his career. Let's say something like 4 years and 50 million with 25 million guaranteed gets Jones signed? Is that going to be worth it?
I love Jones, but I still think extending Linsley with a contract in this same ballpark is a better investment than extending a RB until he's 30 years old. The Packers went through the same kind of thing with Ahman Green (a much better back than Jones) and Dorsey Levens at the same age and they got hurt the following year almost immediately.
Use the money on Linsley, let the Dolphins or Jets give Jones big money, get a 3rd round comp pick next year, and go with Dillon and try to get J. Williams back at 3-4 million a year.
If you extend Jones with big money and let Linsley go, the Dillon draft pick looks even more questionable.
@Tschmack posted:I’ll pass on Fackrell. Hank summed it up best. He “made plays” like a QB falling down but isn’t the answer at OLB even as a backup.
Preston Smith is a solid player. He’s just not a 16MM player.
Sherman is interesting because he’s got credibility and is a good locker room leadership guy. Only question is if he can still play?
Fackrell would be fine as a vet-minimum guy who could give you a few snaps a game on defense and be a core special teams player.
Anything more than that is a hard pass.
@MichiganPacker2 posted:Drew Rosenhaus would be committing malpractice to let Jones play at 8 million next year. Henry, Kamara, D. Cook, and McCaffrey have all signed recent extensions that provided guaranteed money of over 25 million.
It's the guaranteed money that matters, especially for a RB. Cook got 5 years and 63 million with 28 million guaranteed from the Vikings. Jones is not as good as Cook, but has stayed healthier over his career. Let's say something like 4 years and 50 million with 25 million guaranteed gets Jones signed? Is that going to be worth it?
I love Jones, but I still think extending Linsley with a contract in this same ballpark is a better investment than extending a RB until he's 30 years old. The Packers went through the same kind of thing with Ahman Green (a much better back than Jones) and Dorsey Levens at the same age and they got hurt the following year almost immediately.
Use the money on Linsley, let the Dolphins or Jets give Jones big money, get a 3rd round comp pick next year, and go with Dillon and try to get J. Williams back at 3-4 million a year.
If you extend Jones with big money and let Linsley go, the Dillon draft pick looks even more questionable.
I agree with most of this. I think it's especially important to keep Linsley because Bak will likely miss at least half the season. The offensive line was the strongest unit on the team last year and made the offense go. Two years ago SF ran roughshod over the Packers without a premier back, using guys ilke Raheen Mostert and Matt Breida. Not taking anything away from Jones, he is definitely a dynamic back, but I think he is more easily replaceable than Linsley. Instead of simply letting him walk and waiting until next year for the comp pick, I'd prefer they tag and trade him and get an additional pick in this year's draft. I do hope they find a way to keep Jamaal W. I think he's important to team chemistry, he runs hard, and never fumbles.
Jones' value is that he is capable of turning 5-6 yard runs into home runs much better than Dillon or J. Williams. Dillon is likely to be even better than Jones in terms of getting an extra 1-2 yards on every carry after contact.
Linsley's value is that he contributes to making better holes for RBs to run through that give you an extra 1-2 yards before contact per play on 10-12 carries in the middle of the field every game.
The other obvious difference is that Linsley gets dinged up a little bit (sore calf, sore knee, etc.) he can still be pretty effective. A RB, not so much.
@Grave Digger posted:I think PSmith, maybe as much as anyone, will benefit from from the Pettine to Barry change. He knows Barry and I would expect we will see less coverage and more attacking from him based on Barry’s “Fast and Furious” mantra.
This is a false narrative that has gotten pushed so hard everyone thinks its actually true. Maybe it's because he got caught out at CB that one time and it's stuck in everyone's mind.
He did not play coverage this past season any more than he did in the year previous to that. He was targeted 2 more times in 2020 then we was in 2019. He didn't perform as well. But to argue that his rush percentage drastically changed is flat out inaccurate.
Here is an article from early in the season debunking the claim. I'm having trouble finding a website that lists rush percentage for the season. If anyone can find one that shows otherwise, I will gladly eat crow.
"Playing time and role aren’t to blame. Smith has been on the field for 87 percent of the defense’s snaps in 2020, up three percent from last season. And he’s dropped into coverage 51 times, the exact number he dropped through five games last season."
https://twitter.com/andyherman...303505637377?lang=en
Andy Herman and Peter Bukowski debunk the claim, but again, it's from part way through the season.
Looks like PFF has the stat, but I'm not paying those tools.
I didn't say he was in coverage a ton, I just said he would be in coverage less. Because he will. It seems like you've been chomping at the bit to dunk on someone about this "narrative", but I didn't push anything other than he played coverage and won't as much under Barry. Honestly I read this a while back and that's partly where my opinion is coming from.
What the Joe Barry Hire Means for Preston Smith
Barry coached Smith when he served as the Washington Football Team defensive coordinator from 2015 to 2016. It was Smith’s first two years in the league and you make a case that Barry helped him develop into the player he is today. Interpret that however you please.
Fans will find some satisfaction in the way Barry utilized Smith during those two years. Smith didn’t drop into coverage nearly as much in Washington as he has done in Green Bay.
Wasn't trying to dunk on you, my bad if it came across that way. I get frustrated reading that defense, that he would have had a season more like 19 if he was used properly, of P all over the internet and ASSumed this was your argument as well.
For anyone who may have missed this, Gute isn't ruling out the tag:
Packers GM Brian Gutekunst wouldn't rule out using the franchise or transition tag on RB Aaron Jones: "We certainly could. It's something we're working through. It's not a philosophical thing to avoid it. There's usually better... https://t.co/F9CWS9LW2P pic.twitter.com/7E1JlLYXV0
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) March 2, 2021
@BrainDed posted:https://twitter.com/andyherman...303505637377?lang=en
Andy Herman and Peter Bukowski debunk the claim, but again, it's from part way through the season.
I again don't see the totals where he dropped into coverage from an actual LB position vs. literally lining up at CB position.
Stats, amirite?
Herman should use his eyeballs vs. his statballs more often.
It happens, Henry. It's part of why we frequently sent Jones out to the Split End position. Hoping to catch the defense in a call that puts a LB in a spot they clearly shouldn't be in.
Preston Smith is an odd numbered season guy. Look it up, it's true. Keep him in 2021 then dump him before the even numbered season.
@BrainDed posted:Wasn't trying to dunk on you, my bad if it came across that way. I get frustrated reading that defense, that he would have had a season more like 19 if he was used properly, of P all over the internet and ASSumed this was your argument as well.
I'm ashamed for you that you weren't trying to dunk on GD.
I don't think anyone is saying P had a good season. The consideration of cutting him over one bad season when his overall body of work is pretty solid begs the question of what went wrong. I'm not saying it's completely Pettine's fault either. He asked P to do different jobs, he couldn't do it. You start to ask yourself why when he seemed to have no other Perry tendencies previously. You can posit a bunch of intertwining theories but how he was used on the field is a valid consideration.
P may have thought Pettine's usage was bullshit and dogged it or became disheartened or the transition was difficult.
As many times as P dropped into coverage from one year to the next doesn't clarify what the outcome of the assignment should've been.
In 2019 I walked out my front door 100 times. 33 times to buy groceries, 52 to fill up on gas and 15 times to go to Tastee Treat.
In 2020 I walked out my front door 100 times. 55 times to score meth, 33 times running from the cops, 12 times to go to Tastee Treat.
Maybe P is only good at going to Tastee Treat.