Skip to main content

I am not a draft follower. To me it’s kinda like betting but without the money. People look at the size and speed (RAS) and success at the college level. I have no idea what the scouts see or don’t see. Yet it often looks like it’s “follow the leader”. One team shows interest and then other teams do too. (Ted used to throw teams off by doing that) Some site will tout or condemn some prospect and others will then follow and he moves up or down an imaginary board. Of course some players are monsters and they are often sure prospects. But others…the round, the scheme, the players attitude all play a role. Maybe it’s time for an AI program in the draft room?

I am not a draft follower. To me it’s kinda like betting but without the money. People look at the size and speed (RAS) and success at the college level. I have no idea what the scouts see or don’t see. Yet it often looks like it’s “follow the leader”. One team shows interest and then other teams do too. (Ted used to throw teams off by doing that) Some site will tout or condemn some prospect and others will then follow and he moves up or down an imaginary board. Of course some players are monsters and they are often sure prospects. But others…the round, the scheme, the players attitude all play a role. Maybe it’s time for an AI program in the draft room?

Smartest man on the board!! 

They already drafted Nolan Smith last year, he wears # 7 for the Packers.

from Greg Cosell:

Nolan Smith is really light, so the question is: Is he an edge pass rusher in the NFL ? He was not a great pass rusher at Georgia. He looks great on the field, he’s incredibly athletic. I kept watching his tape thinking if he would be better off as a linebacker in the mold of Fred Warner.”

@Satori posted:

They already drafted Nolan Smith last year, he wears # 7 for the Packers.

from Greg Cosell:

Nolan Smith is really light, so the question is: Is he an edge pass rusher in the NFL ? He was not a great pass rusher at Georgia. He looks great on the field, he’s incredibly athletic. I kept watching his tape thinking if he would be better off as a linebacker in the mold of Fred Warner.”

Nolan Smith ran a 4.39

Quay Walker ran a 4.52 and only weighs 10 pounds more

There's a huge difference in speed.

The hard part of projecting guys at Georgia (or Alabama) is that everyone on the field at any time is a future NFL player. Everyone looks better on those teams.

Nolan Smith ran a 4.39

Quay Walker ran a 4.52 and only weighs 10 pounds more

There's a huge difference in speed.

There's definitely a difference, but not the 15th pick of the draft difference
You'd be massively overpaying for that small difference and that's the challenge on draft day, right ? How to best allocate limited resources.

Nolan Smith will be a fine NFL player, he's just a poor value for the Packers' needs. I'd be stunned if they drafted that  player with those measurables

@Thunderbird posted:

I'm not sure a 40 yard dash time is relevant for a DL.  Ideally, you don't want them to run for 40 yards.

The 40 is a surrogate for speed & leg strength and its shows if a player put in the time to train & improve. GMs also pay close attention to the 10, 20 yd splits.

It also a foundational measurement that teams can use to compare across decades of drafting - so it offers insight even if they won't run 40 in a game situation.

The other side of that coin is how do they see the position. They’ve spent a lot of years with slow-footed CHUDs at ILB and good size on the outside. With Campbell back and the drafting of Quay, is there a shift in philosophy to favor speed over size when deciding on a player. Of course there’s also speculation about how much weight he can add without losing quickness. With Enagbare to play more of the “thumper” role and sign Melvin Ingram and that would seem a pretty solid rotation.

FTR I still see them wanting a guy 255#+ out there but it’s something to consider.

Barry came out of the LA defense and they used the "lighter" EDGE players like Leonard Floyd and Justin Hollins ( now a Packer).

But Floyd has some length to him. Those guys fit in part because the OL was so focused on Aaron Donald, that it opened up oppty's for the speedy edge players
The opposing QB couldn't  step up because of AD

But Nolan Smith doesn't have any length, his arms are short and he doesn't have great hands yet - and that means he's gonna get engulfed by OTs that outweigh him by 80 lbs. Play after play after play.

NFL tackles are very good at gaining leverage and leaning their weight on the edge players so that by the end of the game, they are whupped. Nolan would be a great addition to the pressure package, but if you're spending a 1st on him - he needs to be a full time player and he's not ready for that role yet from the comments I've read

( comments came from a former NFL DL )

PackersWire with their write up on DB Anthony Johnson Jr

https://packerswire.usatoday.c...anthony-johnson-jr/?

A three-star recruit out of Florida, Johnson started four games during his freshman campaign and recorded one tackle for loss, and broke up five passes. From there Johnson started 50 straight games for the Cyclones, including 12 starts at the Star position this past season.

clip here

https://twitter.com/i/status/1640794581854715904

@Packmeister posted:

Mock of the day... I don't buy into PFF's individual draft grades. Most of the time, you can't match your board with their ratings.

Two things:  #1 I would love to see Rodgers face if we draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round.   #2 I really don't think Darnell Washington #0 will still be on the board at pick #78. We need that other 1st rounder!!!! But then again DW really does stink.

One thing hanging over the Aaron Rodgers trade to the Jets...  with nos. 13, 42, and 43, New York could potentially trade up to the number 3 spot in the '23 draft and take a quarterback, if the player they want is on the board there. They could certainly get to #4, assuming either Arizona or Indy are willing trade partners.

If it was me, that's what I would do.

Last edited by Packmeister
@Packmeister posted:

If I can think of it, I have no doubt the Jets have, too.

They might "threaten" it. But they'll never pull the trigger and move off Rodgers.

What if Gutey makes a trade up above #13?? Without the Jets? Then what?

See? Two can play this game

@Tschmack posted:

Trade up to draft a QB?  I mean, sure.  Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson worked out pretty well why not do it a third time in the last six years.  

And they’d be lucky to win 6 games this year.

Exactly.  And it feels like the Jets have been floundering and searching for a QB for my entire lifetime.   

From Jordan Reid, ESPN ranking QB's

7. Jake Haener, Fresno State

HT: 6-foot | WT: 207 pounds
Projected range: Early-to-mid Day 3

Haener's career started at Washington in 2018, but he transferred to Fresno State after one season. His best season came in 2021 when he totaled 4,096 passing yards, 33 touchdown throws and 9 interceptions. In 10 starts last season, his production wasn't nearly as good (2,896 passing yards, 20 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions).

Haener is considered undersized at the position, but he plays the game with moxie and toughness. He is able to overcome average arm strength because he's a high-level anticipator when attacking throwing windows in the intermediate and deeper areas of the field. He's unafraid to make those passes because he can see targets come open. Taylor Heinicke has been a common comp for him among NFL scouts, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him carve out a similar career path.

Some scouts at the Senior Bowl felt Haener was the most consistent of the QBs in Mobile, Alabama. The structured environment didn't shine a lot of light on his skill set, but his "gamer" mentality was on display during the competitive periods.

Potential team fit: Green Bay Packers. With Aaron Rodgers possibly out the door and the team then likely turning to Jordan Love, a viable backup option would be needed. In an offense that's predicated off of rhythm and timing, Haener would fit well in Green Bay. He has a limited arm but plenty of mobility and playmaking traits, so being in a Matt LaFleur offense could help him develop into a serviceable No. 2 option in the NFL.

Gutekunst seems pretty married to measurement thresholds. Amari Rodgers has been the outlier, and he met many of them. There’s a decent chance Haener and Bennett are off their board due to height.

Last edited by Herschel

Add Reply

Post
×
×
×
×
Link copied to your clipboard.
×