Packers & Free Agency

Becoming more the norm.

@RickGosselinDMN: WRs Mike Wallace & Greg Jennings received 2 biggest contracts in free agency in 2013. Both got 5 year deals. But were sent packing after 2 Years.

If the players union wanted to be helpful, it would have a team of statisticians looking at contract patterns like this and getting the information to players so they can make better decisions.  I would love to see the correlation graph between size of contract and likelihood of playing out that contract.

Betcha Cobb, Nelson & Bulaga play out their contracts.

DeMaurice couldn't finish a sudoku puzzle if only the 7's were missing. 

 

Every year FA's take monster deals to go elsewhere. Every year we read about most of them being cut after 1 year, two years after those teams decide that monster deal was stupid. So they replace it with another stupid monster deal. Miami gave huge deals to Wallace and Ellerbe. Gone. Suh got a huge portion guaranteed. He'll likely be gone in 3 years. 

 

Youd like to think everyone would catch on and see the pattern. But an NFL career isn't normally long and it has to be brutally hard not to take a big check from a dumb**** owner. Even if the players had supporting data about deal signed/actual games played they'd still likely have a hard time looking past the money. As long as dumb owners and GMs keep putting offers in front of players like they do every March nothings going to change. 

Rodgers too

The players should sue their union leadership ("Mo") for the POOR representation since his arrival to the helm.

I agree with your sentiment, Dr. B, but view that as an agent's responsibility.

It's mostly about the up front, guaranteed money more so than the total contract. 

The union bargained to give the players these options, it is up to the player do choose wisely.  They have all attended colleges and have agents to advise them.  Some make good choices some do not.

And some agents are only looking to line their own pockets and not worried about what is best for the player. 

Who hired that agent?

Free agency is tilted heavily toward owners and GMs. Teams know it. So do agents. There were 322 unrestricted free agents this year. These are all hyper competitive alpha male athletes. The majority of them believe they are worth more than they likely are.

 

$1.3 billion was spent the first 4 days of free agency this year. It's the same every year. It's easy to say players need to take time to make informed decisions but some GMs and owners know if they accelerate the FA frenzy (they have) they alter rational thinking with expediency and a couple extra zeros on the offer sheet. Appeal to what feeds these guys. 

 

Some make good choices. Some do not. Chances are they will not. 

Only a portion of that was actually spent.  The majority of it was "charged" to the teas' future bills.  And I'll bet most of that $1.3 billion doesn't actually get realized.

 A lot of people can say this, but what does it really mean?

Cut the $1.3 Billion in half...I'll bet $650 million is realized & players will collect 1/2 their contracts on average.

Cobb & Bulaga  are exceptions. Wallace & Jennings are the median.

i dont disagree that the $1.3 billion spent the first 4 days of this years FA will ever be paid. I don't think the $1.3 billion spent the first 4 days of next years FA will ever be paid either. But that won't stop next years group from lining up to get at that money most will never see. They line up every year. Have to move fast to get the big payday. 

 

 

 

And two of those last year were Brad Jones and AJ Hawk. Is there any doubt there would have been less of a **** show at ILB if Karlos Dansby or D'Qwell Jackson were in there? Don't go nuts, but imagine an even competent player on the fake FG, or one more win and that game's at Lambeau.

Yeah, and Suh. Think how much better this defense would be with Suh. TT is incompetent.

I think it speaks more to their ability to keep talented players than it does about whether or not dipping into free agency is the right move. It's easy to look back and say keeping Hawk and Jones was a colosul mistake that Thompson should have foreseen, but really NFL players are so unpredictable it's all a guess about what will happen. Mason Crosby had a historically terrible season 3 years ago, but he bounced back to have a really solid season...who could have predicted that?  Based on what we saw it looked like Crosby wasn't just having a tough time, but his career was on a downslide. GMs gamble on players every year, some are sure bets, some they think might work through their slump and get better, and some they gamble that player is done so they send them packing. Thompson has gambled on players before and it has paid off, some guys aren't necessaeily done even though their career looks like it's close to the end and some are just done even if it looks like you lift squeeze one more serviceable year out of them.

Brad Jones was ok & a decent special teams player in 2013. I don't think anyone thought he'd be as colossal-ly bad as he was in 2014.

AJ Hawk OTOH.....everyone knew he was done. But hey...he makes all the right calls & gets guys positioned properly.

Mason Crosby's problems were purely mental, not physical. You could see he still had the leg strength.

 

AJ Hawk's problems were exactly the opposite. He knew where he was supposed to be, he just wasn't physically capable of doing it. This was beginning to be true as far back as 2011.

 

Hawk's situation might be relevant to how they are treating Tramon's contract negotiations. Tramon is clearly on the downslope of his career.

Tramon was the best CB in GB the second half of last year. Tramon is sitting in a Cleveland hotel room today becasue he's certain as **** he's worth more than the $$$ Ted has put in front of him. Maybe he's right. Ted's still not going to bite though. 

The problem is that many guys like Dansby and Jackson are their team's version of Hawk and Jones. Remember Hardy Nickerson?

 

The problem is Hawk and Jones is that they didn't draft two guys to fill those slots when Hawk and Jones hit the wall. The Packers are historically great under TT at drafting (or signing UDFAs) that develop into quality NFL players at CB, WR, and OL - often they end up playing on inexpensive rookie contracts. Sitton, Lang, Tramon Williams, Linsley, Shields, Baktiari, etc.

 

They struggle getting and/or developing DL and ILBs. Maybe it's just harder for personnel guys to project those positions?

I don't want to get into another AJ Hawk debate because there's not point, he's not even a Packer any more. I will just say this: signing free agents is probably a bigger crapshoot than the draft, it's not a guarantee that you have brought in any more of an upgrade and it's more expensive. At least with rookies there is no NFL film available for study on them and they don't come in with the same kind of biases that free agents do.

Easy to play the what if game with Hawk and Jones. The 2014 Green Bay Packers are damn near unbeatable if Desmond Bishop and Nick Collins are healthy. 

In hindsight, TT should have figured out a way to draft Boreland at ILB last year instead of Thornton and Bradford (both of whom were useless last year).  He also should have cut Hawk last year and used that cap space to sign Karlos Dansby, Brandon Spikes, or Daryl Smith.  But I don't blame TT for keeping Jones.  He was a good player in 2012 and with an injury-riddles 2013, wasn't that crazy to expect Jones to bounce back.  He didn't.  Hawk on the other hand, was a big time TT miss.  There is no one else in the league I'd rather have running the Packers than TT but slating Hawk as a starter last year was a huge mistake that most fans saw a mile away.  I think this was one of the rare cases of TT letting his emotions and personal attachment to a player get in the way of running this team the right way.  

 

Really hoping TT signs Spikes, Foster or Irving while still spending a top 100 pick on an ILB.  

Yes, and no. A guy like Dansby has played for a couple of teams, no bad word about him, and has the overall skills still to be good at the position. He's have been pretty safe (and was). He also plays a position of need.

Mike Wallace was an Alvin Harper and had .....personality issues, though was younger but also wanted a much bigger contract. He's a much bigger gamble.

It's always going to be my opinion SF moved up in rd 3 to take Borland ahead of GB even though they had Willis and a recovering Bowman. 

 

Regarding Dansby. Let's say TT cuts Hawk last year and takes the cap hit and pays Dansby $5.5 million in 2014. You have to keep Dansby this year in order for that move to make sense, yes? And by keeping that contract on the books for 2015 as opposed to cutting Hawk and Jones you have a much tougher time bringing back Cobb and/or Bulaga, 

 

I agree TT let Hawk and Jones fester longer than he should have but when you look back and what he could have done or should have done differently it's not like there was a great plan he completely glossed over. 

 

Looking back the one draft pick I'm sure Ted wishes he could get a do-over would be Bruce Carter instead of Sherrod in 2011. Then again he had a healthy Desmond Bishop and Hawk had not reached his full suck potential. Bobby Wagner instead of Nick Perry in 2012 but you don't want to go too far down the re-draft rabbit hole either. 

Conversely, Dansby's contract is pretty close to what Hawk's was prior to taking a pay cut.

 

Type "AJ Hawk is assignment-sure" in to a coachspeak-to-reality translator and you get back "He knows where to line up but he sure misses a lot of assigmnents".

I'd bet Ted wishes he could do almost all of his first round picks over. Other than Bulaga and Collins(EDIT: obviously I meant AR), TT's first choice has been just a guy at best every year.

 

EDIT: I meant Bulaga and AR. I had Collins on he brain when thinking about HaHa.

Very true that TT's 1st round picks have been spotty.  I am way to lazy to look it up but i would bet you could say that about the majority of GM's in the NFL.  To me the draft is entirely a crap shoot but the 1st round is even more of a crap shoot it just gets more press because it is the 1st round.

It's true for the most part.

 

What about HaHa?

Suh would have been stomping Rodgers' ankle in practice.  Think about that.

quote:

I'd bet Ted wishes he could do almost all of his first round picks over. Other than Bulaga and Collins, TT's first choice has been just a guy at best every year.

Wasn't his first choice in 2005 a bit better than just a guy? 

It is early yet, but could be his best 1st round pick ever, IMO.

If you start with 2010 and look at where the Packers drafted in round 1 and who would have been a better choice at that spot looking at the following 10 players (no need to bring up the All Pro steal found late in round 3) the list would look something like this:

(keep in mind, this is a player GB could have used based on need AND hindsight BPA at the time)

 

2010 - Packers drafted 23rd. Player GB could have picked - Jared Odrick (5 picks later). Player GB did pick, Bulaga, was still the better selection. 

2011 - Packers drafted 32nd. Player GB could have picked - Hakeem Ayers, Bruce Carter (7/8 picks later)

2012 - Packers drafted 28th. Player GB could have picked - Coby Fleener. Courtney Upshaw (6/7 picks later)

2013 - Packers drafted 26th - Player GB could have picked. Travis Fredrick (no one had him projected in rd 1 at the time, Zach Ertz. (5 and 9 picks later respectively)

2014 - Packers drafted 21st. No one in the next 10 picks would have been an upgrade over Ha Ha. 

 

Zach Ertz might be the one guy on that entire list I'd really love to see in GB. But let's be honest, it's not like there is a world beater there that Ted simply didn't see. 

 

The one thing that jumps out when you sort through the lower end of round 1 is the dramatic drop in value. Looking this over you could make a great case Ted should have traded down most of the time. It's great that GB always draft and the end of round 1 but it sucks to draft at the end of round 1. 

 

 

All first round pick lists are spotty, far too many of them never make the grade

 

The Packers draft in the 2nd half of the round, sometimes way at the bottom

Most learned football fans understand that there are tiers of players in every draft

Very few, if any, drafts have 32 players with 1st round grade- so you are picking among tier 2 or even tier 3 players by the time it gets to your pick.

Context is king 

 

Thompson has hits and misses, just like all GMs- including the few who made it into the NFL HOF for their work as team builders. Context matters

 

Terrell Buckley

Wayne Simmons

Aaron Taylor

Craig Newsome

John Michels

Ross Verba

Vonnie Holiday

Antwan Edwards

Bubba Franks

Jamal Reynolds

 

Here's a link and you can see how Bill Polian did at Buffalo and Indy with his 1sts

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/bills

 

Criticism without context is useless, but it is quite popular

I assume you mean other than the guy he drafted first in 2005?

I think people read too much into a player being "available". I think in most cases free agents aren't as available as they seem. We see plenty of media games being played during negotiations and we see free agent visits, but I think the majority of the time guys probably want to stick with the same team if they can get the same deal they could get elsewhere. Sure a player might have been a free agent and he might have taken some visits, but ultimately the when they re-sign with their original teams it probably means they weren't as available as they let on. I don't think Cobb and Bulaga were truly available as free agents, I think both wanted to stay and I think the only way they would have left is if GB was offering significantly less than another team...which is why House left. There are outliers, players that want to get the heck away from their team. You also have to be suspicious of why a team doesn't want to re-sign one of their own...there are stupid teams that mismanage their cap and let players go, but when free agents aren't re-signed by good teams it is probably sign they aren't worth what they're asking. Thompson seems to pick up players from stupid teams who can't afford to keep their talent (Oakland/Woodson, St Louis/Pickett, Peppers/Chicago). Just because a player has a clean personality and is available doesn't mean he's worth the gamble.

Agree with pretty much everything you say about the inside linebacker position heading into 2014 and where it stands now.

 

I thing those criticizing TT's 1st round picks are barking up the wrong tree. Rodgers, Matthews, Bulaga, and HHCD were all excellent selections.

 

Where TT has fallen short in my eyes is putting faith in players the past few years who did not deserve it. No way Marshall Newhouse should have been the LT in 2012. The MD Jennings/ Jerron McMillian combo at Safety in 2013 was truly awful and like with Hawk allowed to return to play the inside linebacker position in 2014 you discussed above left an obvious hole that nearly every Packer fan noticed. 

 

TT's reluctance to add 2nd tier veterans to plug these holes is just a mystery to me.

I'm hoping you're right. Gotta replace Nick Collins.

 

BJ Raji & Clay don't suck