Playoff path

I do not want them to play Miami.  They gave Milwaukee fits during the season. 

Honestly, its time they just man up and take down the challengers. Miami is the toughest matchup, and it’ll be good that they’ll have to go through them (I like Miami in the series) to get to the ECF. The. G play will determine their fate- and they’ll have to get through Miami/Toronto to the Finals. 

It's about a 99% shot they will close out the Magic and move on at this point. After seeing what we've seen, how do people see the Heat series playing out? 

I think Bud should consider adjusting his defensive scheme for them. If he continues to play the drop style defense it plays right into the Heat's hands. They have Jimmy Butler, but other than that don't have guys that really scare you in the paint. Maybe Dragic, too? I think you adjust your defense and take your chances with Bledsoe/Hill/DDV straight up on Dragic and Middleton/Williams/Giannis on Butler  (who's 6'7").  My fear is that Miami runs an endless stream of pick and rolls and gets Robinson, Herro, Nunn, and Crowder just an endless stream of wide open 3 point shots on the Bucks' drop defense.  I'd rather make Jimmy Butler beat me inside the arc than give up 45 looks from 3 each game and have them hit at a 40 percent clip. 

There is also the matter of what to do strategically with the Lopez brothers. They are mismatches both ways in playing them. The Heat (and then the Celtics perhaps) don't have a post guy that can hurt you and they'll target Lopez in pick and roll to get wide-open 3s when he drops.  These teams also really don't have anyone to guard Brook or Robin if they post them up. But, if you are going to have them stand at the 3 point line while Giannis drives you don't benefit from those size mismatches. 

If they somehow get by the Heat (which I would guess is about a 1 in 3 chance) and play the Raptors, then you can match up Robin and Brook with Marc Gasol.  

They really needed both of them if they played Embiid in a series, but now that he's out they really aren't as critical. I guess you need them if you actually ever play the Lakers to at least slow down A. Davis, but that's about the only other likely matchup where they really are critical. 

Your stuff is always spot on MichiganPacker2

Why do you have them at a 1 in 3 chance against the Heat?

@Pikes Peak posted:

Why do you have them at a 1 in 3 chance against the Heat?

I just think it's a bad matchup for them.  I think the best matchup for them is actually Boston. The Heat have a guy athletic enough to at least slow down Giannis without a ton of help (Adebayo). They are also very physical with him and even if Giannis gets some calls he's going to have to hit FTs and avoid offensive fouls. 

On offense, the Heat also match up with them well. Robinson (45%), Crowder (45%), Olynk (41%), Herro (39%), Dragic (37%), and Nunn (35%) are all threats from 3. They don't really depend on getting any paint points other than Butler slashing. The Bucks try to force teams to do what the Heat do very well.

It probably hurt the Bucks more than any team not to have home court advantage, also. If the Bucks had 4 of 7 at home, I'd give them about a 2 in 3 chance. 

Of course, a lot of this comes down to how Middleton and Bledsoe play. If we get regular-season Middleton (50/40/90) in a series, I'd pick the Bucks over almost anyone, even on a neutral court. Bledsoe is now 3 for 13 from deep in the Magic series.  Before the 4th quarter yesterday, Middleton was 6 for 21 from deep. 

It's obvious to anyone that Middleton is going to be the key on offense. This Bucks team has some parallels to the early 80s Bucks teams that never quite got over the hump with the Celtics and Sixers. 

Giannis is basically a 7 foot Sidney Moncrief. That's amazing to think about given how good Sid was before his knees gave out. But the parallels are there - elite defender (2 time Defensive Player of the Year), a great scorer/slasher, mediocre outside shot. 

Bledsoe is what he is - he's a moderately better version of Quinn Buckner. He's never going to light you up from deep. Tenascious on-ball defender with no confidence his shot. Average distributor. 

Middleton is almost the exact size Marques Johnson was. He's got an elite mid-range game. He's not the player Marques was, but the Bucks need him to be a reasonable facsimile (80% of that)  to win it all. Middleton is a much better 3 point shooter, but I'd argue Marques would have been a lot better from deep had it been an emphasis back then. Marques was a borderline HOFer.  Middleton is a better shooter and Marques was a better ballhandler, but both are decent defensive players. Ricky Pierce was a somewhat similar guy. I think MIddleton slots somewhere between Marques and Pierce. 

Brian Winters was the Kyle Korver of his day (and not just because they are both white). One of the best shooters of his era. In today's NBA Winters would be an elite player (top 10 in 3 point % 4 times). 

Jack Sikma didn't overlap with Marques or Quinn Buckner, but there is probably no better comparison to Brook Lopez. Sikma was also a better 3 point shooter than Brook. Good, but deliberate post player. Not as a good a defender. 

Junior Bridgeman is a George Hill or Wes Matthews type. Junior would be a good 3 and D guy in today's NBA. 

Interestingly, two of the key Bucks from that era are probably unplayable in today's NBA. Bob Lanier would have been abused on pick and rolls and Paul Pressey was too poor a shooter to space the floor. Lanier would be a better version of Greg Monroe and Pressey is most like Mbah a Moute or Michael Carter-Williams. 

That roughly decade of Bucks basketball was marked by a bunch of excellent, but not elite players (Pierce, Bridgeman, Sikma) playing alongside low-level HOF/perennial all-star types (Moncrief, Marques, and Cummings) that just couldn't close out teams late. As good as those latter 3 were, they just weren't quite good enough to take over a 4th quarter and dominate when they needed to. Moncrief couldn't shoot well enough, Cummings had ballhandling issues, and for some reason Marques just never got there. 

The question will be can Middleton do enough in the last 3 minutes of a tight game to close things out. You can't go to Giannis because he can't shoot and he's a liability at the line. They need Middleton to be a Marques Johnson type in that situation. Can he do it? 

Great comparisons MP2...you brought back some good memories of the 80’s...those Bucks we’re ALWAYS good...just not good enough.

@Blair Kiel posted:

Great comparisons MP2...you brought back some good memories of the 80’s...those Bucks we’re ALWAYS good...just not good enough.

That 87 team was the last hurrah. They got so close against Boston in Game 7. Pressey was handling Bird and then Pressey picked up 3 cheap fouls in about a two minute period with about 4 minutes left and fouled out. 

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

they just weren't quite good enough to take over a 4th quarter and dominate when they needed to.

Awesome trip down memory lane, huge thx for the great write-up.

Those Bucks teams were good enough to get by Boston OR the Sixers, but not both. That was a freaking brutal path to the Finals and there's little shame in coming up short vs that 2 team gauntlet filled with HOF players.

I hope these current Bucks can pull it off

OK, who is the current Alton Lister? 

Thanks MP2,  those were some fun times in Milwaukee. 

I wouldn’t assume that Toronto will get past Boston and we want Boston to advance as the Bucks match up better against the Celtics than Raptors.  Jason Tatum has been OK but not dominant against Milwaukee and the Cs bigs in general have issues with the Bucks. 

Still, Milwaukee has to get past Miami first. While the Bucks have the size, the Heat have the 3 point shooters and if they get hot that really worries me.   Defensively, I don’t think Miami is as good as Boston or Toronto but they don’t have to be if their guards are hitting outside shots. 

@PackerHawk posted:

OK, who is the current Alton Lister? 

Probably John Henson. 

The bigger question is who are the current Paul Mokeski and Randy Breuer. 

Do you know a guy who would be perfect in today's NBA? Craig Hodges. 

@Tschmack posted:

I wouldn’t assume that Toronto will get past Boston and we want Boston to advance as the Bucks match up better against the Celtics than Raptors.  Jason Tatum has been OK but not dominant against Milwaukee and the Cs bigs in general have issues with the Bucks. 

Still, Milwaukee has to get past Miami first. While the Bucks have the size, the Heat have the 3 point shooters and if they get hot that really worries me.   Defensively, I don’t think Miami is as good as Boston or Toronto but they don’t have to be if their guards are hitting outside shots. 

The Al Horford signing was probably the biggest offseason move in the East. It simultaneously weakened both the Celtics and the Sixers. He was the one guy the Celtics had that could at least make Giannis work and he completed the stagnation of the Sixers offense.

Agree that the Bucks match up well with Boston. I can't see Marcus Smart holding up against Giannis in a 7 game series (unless Smart can get Giannis to throw a punch and get suspended). Bledsoe is a good guy to have on Kemba Walker. Bledsoe's ball pressure skills aren't as critical against the Heat. 

I just have this feeling they won't get past Miami....Sucks.

Unless Middleton plays consistently like he did in game 4 vs. the Magic.

Does the NBA want Milwaukee to get past Miami? That's the $64,000 question.

If so, Giannis will be getting all the calls & Miami will cry

Boston just thrashing the Raptors in game 1.  Celtics up 17 at half and it’s not even that close.  

Great to see Toronto getting spanked.  Celtics look great but they really don't have an answer for us inside.  I am very worried about Miami but if we get by them I think we will be ok.

Celtics are 12-23 from 3, Raptors are 5-25. That's the difference. 

Toronto has almost twice as many FT attempts but can’t throw it in the ocean 

No Fred Van Vleet miracles this year... FVV and Lowery 3-19 from three. Now they’re down 2-0. Of course against Milwaukee last year... 

@Music City posted:

No Fred Van Vleet miracles this year... FVV and Lowery 3-19 from three. Now they’re down 2-0. Of course against Milwaukee last year... 

With no Kawhi, the Raptors are a worse version of the Bucks in the playoffs. A great defensive team with a lead guy that you can't count on for offense in the half-court (Siakam) in a close game. 

When the Raptors needed it last year, they gave the ball to Kawhi and he could consistently hit contested mid-range shots. That's not happening this year. Kyle Lowry (like Khris Middleton) is very good, but not a superstar playoff closer on offense. 

Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler are the two best guys left in the East that can do that. Next year, the Nets will have both Kyrie Irving and Durant back and they'll probably be the favorites in the East. Giannis has to become that guy for them to get past the Heat this year. 

Another thing. Jayson Tatum played 42 minutes tonight. 

If he stays out of foul trouble, Giannis is going to have to approach those types of minutes.  

It’s entirely possible that Van Vleet could go off and bring them back in this series but he’s streaky as hell so who knows?  All I do know is Toronto has had problems all year having a consistent offense and if they aren’t hitting 3s they have a tough time scoring.  

It’s also obvious to me that they have no answers for Jason Tatum so far in this series. Just goes to show what a difference a guy like Kahwi was to that team on both ends of the court. 

As for Milwaukee, if they go down 0-2 the series is over.  Giannis needs to step up and prove he’s an elite player and exert his will on Miami.  The Bucks played very soft in game 1 so get physical and take it to the Heat. 

@Tschmack posted:

As for Milwaukee, if they go down 0-2 the series is over.  Giannis needs to step up and prove he’s an elite player and exert his will on Miami.  The Bucks played very soft in game 1 so get physical and take it to the Heat. 

I don’t think that’s true. They have the best player on the floor. In the NBA that means a lot. 3-0? Sure- can’t do it. 2-0? It ain’t great, but they play like the Bucks they can still win the series. 

It's a test of mettle. That said “best player” needs to rise to occasion. When he does, the rest of them better be with him. 

Under normal circumstances I would probably agree.  But this isn’t normal.  The bubble means a team like Milwaukee has to overcome not having home court advantage which means a lot to a team like the Bucks.   You go down 2-0 in a typical series it would still mean the Bucks would get another home game if not 2 assuming a 7 game series.  Now?  Winning 4 out of 5 on basically a neutral court against a team that matches up well with you isn’t realistic. 

In 6 playoff games so far we have not yet witnessed the Bucks play a complete game or bring their “A” game.   If they put it all together there isn’t a team in the league that can beat them.  I’m hoping they come out tonight and make a statement starting with Giannis.