Grave Digger posted:

They don't draft players based on production alone. Plenty of players have put up really good career numbers and been drafted late or not at all. Happens every year. He deserved that draft slot because of his attitude, his position versatility and this:

He recorded a Relative Athletic Score of 9.95, out of a possible 10.0. RAS is a composite metric on a 0 to 10 scale based on the average of all of the percentile for each of the metrics the player completed either at the Combine or pro day.

https://relativeathleticscores...23/brock-lesnar-ras/

I would imagine some of the post season angst towards this pick includes the fact that many wanted an impact player at #12 (or at least a starter/more than part time player), not a project with unlimited potential and mad, crazy athleticism, especially given the fact that the player wearing #12 has an unlimited/unknown number of seasons left in his career.

This is my thing with Gary and the argument of he doesn't play because of the Smith Bro signings and development.  He's a high DE/OLB pick.  1 year to develop (2 max) behind Z and P, great.  I'm thiking 1 year max with this supposed crazy talent.  If he isn't playing significant snaps next year WTF was he drafted?  Conversely, why were both P and Z signed? 

If he isn't playing in lieu of guys like Lowry or even Lancaster with different looks on the Dline by next year (and no, I don't mean specifically playing DE/DT) then I'm not sure what the point was.  The Packers don't have the luxury of well, 1st round luxury picks if those picks aren't seriously producing results.  The mid draft WR shotgun approach sure didn't work (hopefully EQ can do something bigger) and the wrangling to try and get something out of Randall pick has failed too (through no fault of Goop).

I will never say having a really good depth at OLB isn't a need but in this case that super talent depth needs to get his ass on the field.

I believe Gary will be a good player. The posts on Lesnar and Mandarich weren't to say he will be like them, although Mandarich has a serviceable NFL career with the Colts, Lesnar was nothing more than a roided out sideshow who got his clock cleaned in practice and quit. The posts were to show that numbers don't always equate to football success.

We may not see Gary's full potential till year 3 or 4, similar to Kenny Clark.

I think the long term plan may be to put Z with his hand down, and overload that side with Gary as well at OLB.

Being able to develop a project player is a luxury most teams don't have with a round 1 pick. If you look at all the other defensive players around him, only a couple of them had/have obvious starters already in front of them when drafted...Brian Burns (old vets in front of him), Jeffery Simmons, LJ Collier, Jerry Tillery are not starters yet and all (except Burns) had <400 snaps for the year. It's not weird to hold back your developmental prospect. Would be nice to get immediate returns, but it's a luxury we can afford honestly because our top 2 guys are insanely productive. GB needed Darnell Savage to start right away and he did, I have no doubt if they had signed only 1 Smith that Gary would have supplanted Fackrell as the starter pretty quick and improved as the season went along. 

Agreed but the case against Gary is twofold.  #1 AMAZING ALL WORLD ATHLETE.  #2 Questionable production in college.  No, I'm not discounting how he was used and I think it was valuable.  Still, not a #12 pick overall does make if the kid still needs to develop.  No Bradford syndrome please.  If it takes 3 to 4 years, wasted draft capital particularly when you're trying to fit a window before Rodgers is done.

In retrospect the Packers should have traded back into later in the first round and picked up another pick instead of taKing Gary.  You don’t take a “project” at 12 overall when you have so many holes to fill. 

Those that followed Big Ten football have seen Rashaun Gary play many times.  I don’t care about the measurables or athletic skills.  It’s about making an impact on the field and too often the potential didn’t translate into actual performance. 

Then he gets drafted and get paid a bunch of money and has almost zero chance to replace either of the Smith’s or get cut so how do you think this will end up?   

Yes, overpaying for Nick Perry and eventually cutting him loose and not drafting TJ Watt isn’t his fault.  But damn he needs to be getting more than 10 snaps a game to justify that much of an investment. 

Tschmack posted:

In retrospect the Packers should have traded back into later in the first round and picked up another pick instead of taKing Gary.  

Hey that's great! And you have a draft partner with proper draft capital for the #12 overall selection, yes??

I've said this before ....NOBODY wanted that pick.

That’s fair Boris.  Not sure if there was a market for the 12th pick but who knows?  I’m not sure Gary is taken by another team that high.  

Seems like some teams are willing to trade up or back every year.  Looking at some of the players taken later in the 1st round I would gladly trade Gary for some of them. 

Having any of the 10-20 picks is like being the middle child. People aren't excited right away to have it or to trade for it, and getting a great player is hit-and-miss. The fans will criticize you for not getting an immediate difference-maker because it's the first round, or for not trading down, or for not trading up. You can get a Raji at 9 or a CMIII at 26 and be looked at as a great GM, but stay at 12 and get a Gary and everyone starts to question your acumen. Middle-child syndrome.

If Gutey could've traded down & received fair value I guarantee he would have. We've already seen him do it with the Saints trade & pickup an extra first. Then go back UP & select Jaire. 

He was stuck in no man's land so you take your shot & make the selection. 

That's how the draft works. You don't get the benefit of hindsight like we do. 

At least he was swinging for the fences. Hope it works out. 

The fact that they held him back from playing does not necessarily mean he's a project or he wasn't ready to contribute immediately. I think he was 4th on the depth chart because they signed two clear cut starters in the offseason and their #3 was a guy coming off double digit sacks. That's a pretty legit reason for a guy seeing the field less than his draft slot would indicate. 

That's also not to say the team held back a player who 100% should have been on the field, he may not have been at a point in his development where they trusted him out there, which isn't a positive for him. I tend to think he was probably struggling with some of the mental aspects of what we ask of our OLBs and he just didn't pass Fackrell on the depth chart. "Position versatility" in college is a good thing for the team, but for the player it means he doesn't get to really settle into any position and hone his craft. Probably true for Gary. 

I want to see him make a jump in year 2 and help get the Smith's snap counts down some, although we're paying both guys enough money that they should be full time. Ideally I would like to see him playing 600-700 snaps next year with little to no drop off in talent from the Smiths. 

pkr_north posted:

wonder what ever happened with the labrum? or was it shoulder where every draft person thought he would neeed surgery.  i haven't seen any mention of him getting surgery, must be ok.

Late in season he announced he was taking the brace off and wouldn't need surgery.

Grave Digger posted:

The fact that they held him back from playing does not necessarily mean he's a project or he wasn't ready to contribute immediately. I think he was 4th on the depth chart because they signed two clear cut starters in the offseason and their #3 was a guy coming off double digit sacks. That's a pretty legit reason for a guy seeing the field less than his draft slot would indicate. 

That's also not to say the team held back a player who 100% should have been on the field, he may not have been at a point in his development where they trusted him out there, which isn't a positive for him. I tend to think he was probably struggling with some of the mental aspects of what we ask of our OLBs and he just didn't pass Fackrell on the depth chart. "Position versatility" in college is a good thing for the team, but for the player it means he doesn't get to really settle into any position and hone his craft. Probably true for Gary. 

I want to see him make a jump in year 2 and help get the Smith's snap counts down some, although we're paying both guys enough money that they should be full time. Ideally I would like to see him playing 600-700 snaps next year with little to no drop off in talent from the Smiths. 

Then they should've used the much needed draft capital somewhere else.

Gute being stuck in no-man's land at 12 last year makes the Gary pick make more sense.  If everyone you're looking at is "meh" you might as well take a shot at a guy you think has off the charts potential and athletic ability.  IOW if you're more certain that everybody else on your board at 12 is not worth 12, you may as well go with the guy you think has the best chances of developing into having that value.

The dude is also only 21yr old.  Another parallel to Kenny.  

As long as the Smith Bros are living up to their contracts, Gary stays a backup.  And based on this year, I don't see either dropping off at all unless injuries strike.  That's what makes the pick so odd, is that there just isn't a clear path to the field for Gary.  I'm just not sure how this pick can work out.  

Bosa 

Tschmack posted:

The Smiths are not going to stay healthy or be as effective playing 80% of the snaps.  We saw that toward the end of the year and playoffs.

But hey don’t worry Gary is still learning or whatever the hell he’s doing as the 12th overall pick. 

Snap count totals for all the sack leaders last year are higher than 80% so I don't agree with that assessment.   Use this link to go to a team page and check out any of the sack leaders.   I linked to Pitt to stir the TJ WATT pot.  heheheh. 

https://subscribers.footballgu...s/teampage-pit-6.php

I think the reality is that it doesn't make sense to take a productive player off the field, Smith Bro's, for a less productive player, Gary.  So Smith's should play as many snaps as they can, only coming off when they say they need a breather. 

 

 

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