The NBA has some work to do. A pandemic, Political backlash, and general drops in event viewership opposite the most media covered Presidential election in history gave the NBA 51% fewer viewers to sell sponsor products to year over year. Adam Silver addressed the Political backlash- political messaging will need to be off the court in the shortened 72-game season. But even while the pandemic has states reporting further shutdowns, there’s still a season to salvage (again) and some bridges to mend.
And with the election mercifully in the rear view, folks may want to continue their journey back to normalcy by watching some Christmas Day hoops again. Depending on state restrictions, the NBA has already laid out guidelines to allow fans to attend games again in 2021. By the time the playoffs arrive, with the vaccine deployed for several months by then, the playoffs may once again be filled with raucous chants of “DEFENSE!!!” in a virtually full arena. Celebrity rows may be pushed back 15 feet from the bench (10 from the court), but I never thought it was smart to put people that close to the action anyway. The Bubble showed that players can play harder with more space around the court.
The Association certainly is aligning itself to other potential changes. There were rumors last year that some NBA officials were interested in realigning its season to a Christmas week opening and a July Finals, citing that early season viewership suffers when head to head with the mighty NFL and College Football juggernauts. The ratings surely bear that out- after a natural first week interest spike, the viewership quickly plummeted in favor of football as playoff brackets take shape and Conference Championships line up. This season then takes on the look of a sort of trial balloon in that regard. If the result is a sustained interest, this change could be permanent.
But there are other changes. The scheduling lessons of the bubble have given birth to a completely different way of looking at travel and it’s impact on quality of play. More back to backs with no travel now dot the current released schedule, and this may be a permanent fixture in regular seasons in the future. Finding ways to keep players fresher and less susceptible to injury by limiting travel certainly lends itself to a better product on the floor- a very loud lesson from the Bubble. The Association can also look to a reduced regular season, knowing that teams no longer play star players anyway for all 82 games.
There are playoff format changes available on the horizon, as well. Could we see a centralized, Super Bowl-like NBA Finals? The players certainly approved of the limited travel and maximum rest of the Bubble. That doesn’t bode well for markets like Milwaukee, where lost local revenue booms won’t be popular. But for the league it could present opportunities similar to the corporate billions enjoyed by the NFL. Placing the crown jewel games in larger markets that can handle the convergence of the global media covering the Finals (always a logistical challenge) could theoretically generate more shareable revenue for the health of the league. That also opens the door to “every other day” scheduling, which puts bigger market games in prime slots for max $$$ (a reality us Bucks fans were exposed to in the Bubble playoffs that saw the Bucks playing mid-afternoon even as the 1 seed).
It will be a time of change in the relationship between the Owners and players, as well. The “Player Empowerment Era” may have run its course- if Ownership has any say. The era of NBA players keen to join forces with other great players to form Superteams has been met with backlash from fans and owners alike. It’s one of the reasons the Bucks’ extension of Giannis has been viewed as a “good thing for the NBA” by pundits (who ironically just weeks before were dreaming of a Knicks return to glory). It’s a feel good story. But stars playing in big markets or aligning with other stars to win is nothing new in the NBA, and because it is also in the interests of the game, it’s not going away. The key will be to create incentives for teams to stay together longer. Cap incentives seem to be the main pathway towards more player stability. The health of the league in its medium to small markets must be a priority for the game to prosper. Look no further than the NFL for proof.
The Association, like all of us, took a big hit in 2020... they’ll need to navigate smartly going forward to ensure the long term stability and growth of the league. They need to promote the game positively to the whole country, and repair some bridges to disenchanted fans in flyover cities that view the league as something they don’t connect with anymore. Just about every Bucks fan I know was ready to walk away from the NBA if the league gave any appearance to the kind of big market shenanigans that typified the David Stern era. Those fans today look forward to the continuing success of a team with one of the league’s biggest stars- as it should be.
The Association needs to worry less about offending China and more about what they have right here.
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