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The COVID situation is likely to catch up to every team at some time and cause some unexpected losses and may cause some game cancellations. With the already-reduced number of games and how condensed the standing are, it makes it more of a priority to bank some wins early in the season for playoff positioning later. You obviously want to win as many games as you can no matter what, but each game is worth more than 10% more this year relative to the final standings and if the game numbers get reduced even more due to cancellations, it becomes an even higher percentage. The Bucks were going to be a work in progress, but they need to start/continue to play more smoothly and take care of business.

Right now, the Bucks are OK at 7-4. The rest of January looks like this. It would be nice to throw down something like a 7-2 stretch to get to 14-6 (should be heavily favored in all but the Mavs, Lakers, and Nets games). If you get a little loose in this stretch and go something like 4-5, an 11-9 record starts to get a little concerning given how compressed the standings are .



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Last edited by MichiganPacker2

So I'm watching Golden St vs. San Antonio....

Curry is feeding Wiseman for dunks the same way DDV feeds Giannis. Very impressive first half by GSW.

They're a different team than the Bucks & Nets crushed early now that Draymond is back.

Wiseman....I swear to Christ he's looking like Giannis tonight -- definitely his best game as a Warrior

Last edited by Boris
@Boris posted:

Another guy that can't play defense? Trading Kyrie (who probably could play defense but really doesn't want to) for a guy that tries to play defense but can get played off the court by small-ball lineups probably isn't going to fix the Nets main problem which is that they can't stop anybody.

@EC Pack posted:

After they stole Middelton, I can see why.

July 31, 2013: Traded by the Detroit Pistons with Brandon Knight and Viacheslav Kravtsov to the Milwaukee Bucks for Brandon Jennings.

This is probably the most lopsided trade in Bucks history (from the Bucks perspective).

It will be interesting to see if Middleton makes the All-star team this year. He deserves to, but he might get squeezed out by Irving/Harden if both get in and by a bunch of guys putting up big numbers on mediocre to lousy teams (Trae Young, Vucevic, G. Hayward, Zach Lavine, Jerami Grant, Sexton, Drummond, J. Randle).

Who are the players in the East that you'd clearly take over him right now?

Giannis, Durant, Embiid, Tatum, and Beal. 

Guys like Sabonis, J. Brown, VanVleet, Siakam, Butler, and Adebayo also deserve to be in the conversation and MIddleton is in this group.

@Tschmack posted:

I don’t know - trading Marbury for Ray Allen was pretty lopsided IMO.  

I seem to remember the Sam Cassell trade working out well.  

But Middleton and Knight for Jennings ranks right up there for sure.

I forgot about the draft day Allen trade. Of course, we later traded him for 3 months of ancient Gary Payton and Desmond Mason to cancel that out.

@EC Pack posted:

Very similar to baseball's homerun or bust mentality.

The difference is that in baseball it's made the game very boring to watch relative to when I was a kid. It's HR or bust on offense and minimize contact with the bat as a pitcher by getting as many strikeouts as possible. I'd go watch a game in County Stadium during college in the 80s and there was movement every inning during pitches. Guys stealing bases, a lot more hit-and-run, etc. Now all the movement is between batters (shift the defense based on tendencies, much less movement on the bases).

For basketball, it's improved the flow of the game on offense (with some Harden-like exceptions where it's just iso). After the Celtics/Lakers glory days in the 80s, the game (except for the Bulls) had evolved into a slugfest where you'd post up your big guy, get him the ball, and let him bump against his defender, and then shoot. Those Heat/Knicks playoff matchups were typical of the era and were just brutal to watch. It was like hand-to-hand combat. The ball movement of the Spurs title teams and the pre-Durant Warriors was beautiful to watch.

Last edited by MichiganPacker2

How many HOFers in the 80s and 90s would be unplayable these days, at least in playoff series against the good teams? I can think of many: Robert Parish, Kevin McHale, Patrick Ewing, Wes Unseld, Bob Lanier, Moses Malone, Artis Gilmore, to name a few. They'd all get abused on the switches trying to defend the 3 point line. If Andre Drummond played in that era, we might be talking about him as a first-ballot HOFer. In today's game, he's lucky to be named an all-star.

The reciprocal is that guys like Durant and Curry would have been much less effective back then. If you could handcheck them like teams did to Jordan, their lack of strength would be exposed. As good as Durant is, if you put someone like Oakley on him for a few possessions and just beat the crap out of him, it would be interesting to see how he'd respond.

Guys like Curry and Durant would have been pushed around and pummeled like crazy in those days.  

People forget how physical the game used to be especially for guards and swing players.  Watch Jordan in his early days how often he’d get drilled or knocked down or hammered with no call.  

Then again, I doubt a guy like Giannis would be allowed to drive to the rack and dunk on guys uncontested.

On the other hand, guys like Harden and LeBron and Kahwi and Jimmy Butler would be just fine.  They are built differently and could take the pounding and still play their game.

@Tschmack posted:

Guys like Curry and Durant would have been pushed around and pummeled like crazy in those days.  

People forget how physical the game used to be especially for guards and swing players.  Watch Jordan in his early days how often he’d get drilled or knocked down or hammered with no call.  

Then again, I doubt a guy like Giannis would be allowed to drive to the rack and dunk on guys uncontested.

On the other hand, guys like Harden and LeBron and Kahwi and Jimmy Butler would be just fine.  They are built differently and could take the pounding and still play their game.

Middleton is a quintessential 80s/90s player. Except for catch and shoot 3s, most of his offense involves bumping into the defender to create space in the midrange. He's like Ricky Pierce on steroids. Another guy he would be similar to is Mark Aguirre.  He'd be a borderline all-star every year in that era too.

The world keeps spinning and it seems like the Bucks aren’t the only team trying to figure things out.  

The Celtics are 6-11 since starting the season 8-3.   That includes several bad losses recently to teams like the Wizards and Pistons.

The Heat are a train wreck.  After a very average 4-4 start, they are 7-13 since that point.   Their schedule has been challenging, but did anyone think they would be 11-17?  

The Raptors seem to be playing better, but are still 13-15.   I think they are trending on the right direction.

Then there’s Milwaukee.  Yes they have played awful lately, but they are 15-8 with Holiday in the lineup.  I hope and expect he’ll be back soon.

I would argue that the low point of the season was not the losing streak (which was without Holiday), but the back to back losses to New Orleans and Charlotte when they let two fairly average 3-point shooting teams shoot well over 40% from 3 and hit 21 3s in each game. The defensive philosophy began to switch away from the drop zone and to more switching. The Bucks are 9-1 in the last 10 games with Holiday since then with the only loss to the Nuggets. That was an ugly loss, but it was also when Holiday was still on minutes restrictions.

If they can get an upgrade on the roster by moving DJ Wilson or Torrey Craig along with a 2nd round pick, you obviously do it. But I don't want them moving DDV for a one-year, potentially washed-up rental like Tucker. DDV is too good on defense.

What they really need is more reps together. They had a couple of weeks of preseason and then Holiday missed almost a month. They'll go down to an 8 or 9 man rotation in the playoffs anyway. Giannis, Middleton, Holiday, Lopez, DDV, and Portis are going be 6 of those guys. Augustin, Forbes, and Connaughton are the other 3. If you get a guy like Tucker I guess he slots into Connaughton's minutes, but if you lose DDV in the process then I don't think it's a net plus. Also, Connaughton is at 39% from 3 this year and Tucker is at 31%. The reason to get him is that he's had some success guarding Durant in the past.

At this point, I'd prefer the Bucks wait for the buyout market or try to get a fringe piece for DJ Wilson and Craig. They are better positioned to win in the playoffs this year than last year just by swapping Holiday in for Bledsoe. Forbes is at least as good as Korver was last year in that role, and Portis is a big step up from Ilyasova/Marvin Williams. DDV vs. Matthews is probably a push. The downgrade is from George Hill to Augustin, but Augustin is a pure point guard which has some value in stretches were you need to execute and get a good shot off with the second unit (like those many third-quarter playoff stretches when Giannis sits and they struggle to get anything done in the half court).

Agreed.  I’m not as certain that they should deal DDV now simply because in the playoffs (and possible matchups) they need his defense with Forbes and Augustin and their limited capabilities on D.

The question is a guy like Lopez - if you could package him and DJW to get another athletic big that can shoot that might be an option because come playoff time he is a liability on the defensive end.

Bucks trade details:

GET: from Houston- PJ Tucker, Rodions Kurucs; from Phoenix- their own 2022 first-round pick

GIVE UP: to Houston- DJ Augustin, DJ Wilson and 2023 unprotected first-round pick; to Phoenix- Torrey Craig

Houston also gets right to swap its 2021 second-round pick for Milwaukee's FRP pick unless it falls 1-9.

The Bucks also go from $441,539 below the hard cap to $3.5M. They now have 2 open roster spots.

They may be looking at another move.

@Tschmack posted:

I like this move.  Augustin has been up and down this year and Tucker obviously gives them an upgrade defensively.   The other good thing about him is he’s been a solid 3pt shooter.

Seems to me they need another guard unless they want to play one of the younger guys?

I think Augustin was on an upward trajectory on offense and would have been fine there. The problem was that once you've committed to more of a switching defense instead of the drop scheme, you couldn't play Augustin big minutes. The Bucks started the season still mainly in drop and Augustin's defensive weaknesses are hidden more in that system.

Lopez will struggle on switches also, but he has very high value as a paint defender on help defense and is a very good post defender. The question for Lopez is whether that outweighs his struggles (the same struggles guys like Dwight Howard and A. Drummond have) in defending guys at the 3 point line. Augustin has very little defensive value, except maybe in a Celtics matchup against Kemba Walker.

The way I see it, at some point if Milwaukee advances in the playoffs they will need to beat Miami, Philly, or the Nets.  

Adding Tucker helps them in any one of those team matchups because he can defend multiple positions and you have to honor his ability to hit 3pt shots.

I think Augustin would have been OK but honestly this team needed another wing defender more than they needed another scorer or 3pt shooting.  If the Bucks want more offense off the bench that’s what Forbes and Portis are there for and Tucker can do both (score and defend).  

Depending on the matchups, it could also mean Giannis could play more as a 5 as Tucker could technically play the 4.  Not many teams in the East have a way to defend Giannis at the 5 other than Philly.  

@Tschmack posted:

The way I see it, at some point if Milwaukee advances in the playoffs they will need to beat Miami, Philly, or the Nets.  



The way things are shaking out, 2 of the 3 for almost certain. You’ll get one in the EC Semis, and the other in the ECF.

Last night, they would have lost in Embiid was on the floor. There’s work to do...

@Music City posted:

The way things are shaking out, 2 of the 3 for almost certain. You’ll get one in the EC Semis, and the other in the ECF.

Last night, they would have lost in Embiid was on the floor. There’s work to do...

Last night was a gritty win. I think the surprise of finding out that 3 teammates had been traded right before they tipped off might have had something to do with the awful first half. To their credit, the Bucks defense was consistently good even as they stunk the place up on offense and allowed them to stay within shouting distance.

Embiid would have allowed the Sixers to score more easily on offense and the Bucks would have been way out of it by the end of the first half. However, Embiid wouldn't have changed much of what happened in the first half to the Bucks offense. The Bucks are not going to shoot 1 for 17 from 3 very often, and Embiid's feet aren't quick enough to guard Giannis anyway.

The key decision in a playoff series against the Sixers will probably end up being whether to play Lopez in crunch time against Embiid and put Giannis on Simmons, or to go with Tucker on Simmons and move Giannis up to guard Embiid.

Last edited by MichiganPacker2

That’s the beauty of adding Tucker.  You take out Middleton or Giannis or even Lopez and you bring in a defensive minded guy like Tucker and you won’t necessarily be exposed.  It seems really weird that a guy who’s 6’5” can defend guys 4-5” taller than him but he does.  Not unlike how Jrue Holiday can defend a guy like Doncic.

The other interesting thing about Tucker is one of the better corner 3pt shooters in the league.  Yes, his numbers are down this year, but Houston is an absolute mess and my guess is he’ll be energized and motivated to play for a team like the Bucks.

So much these type of deals are also intended to keep a guy away from another team you will likely face down the road.  Philly is one of those teams that would have been a perfect fit for Tucker.  

@RoyalWulff posted:

Haven’t watched them at all this year.  Will this trade make them a contender?

As Giannis goes, so will this team. That’s really the long and short of it. Getting contributions from the rest of the lineup is only helpful if Giannis plays better.

When Giannis is clearly the best player on the floor, they beat you. They beat you soundly. Against the Heat, he wasn’t, then he got hurt. Against Toronto the year before, he was, then they built a wall and made him not, and they lost 4 straight.

I only bring this up because it can get lost in the shuffle of adding this guy, or that guy, or replacing that guy with this guy. In the end, even if all these guys are as good as advertised, unless Giannis is better as well, they still won’t win it all.

Holliday and Portis are significant upgrades from last season.  Forbes is at least as good if not better than Korver.

The only drop off is George Hill at backup PG but DDV has improved and the addition of Tucker allows them to play a small ball lineup without sacrificing on the defensive end.

Assuming they stay healthy I like where this team is headed.  They are one of the rare teams IMO that can match up defensively with a team like Brooklyn and probably Philly.  Especially now with getting Tucker.

EAST

Interesting things happening in the standings... the Atlanta Hawks change their coach, and last night extended their win streak to 8 games by beating the Lakers.

The Heat had won 10 straight until this week, but now have lost 2 in a row. The Heat and Hawks were under .500 just a few weeks ago, now they are the 4-5 seeds in the East.

The Pacers, Raptors, and Celtics are all in a free-fall. The Pacers are 7-13 since the start of FEB, while the Celtics 8-13 in the same stretch, and the Raptors have not won a game yet in March. This has allowed the Knicks and Hornets to climb into the playoff picture. The play-in games should be real battles.

WEST

In the Lakers’ loss to the Hawks, LeBron injured his ankle. Looks like he’ll miss some time. Anthony Davis has been out a month already... Lakers could be in trouble.

The Suns are the 2 seed now behind Utah, the first team to get to 30 wins. DEN seems to have righted the ship, and Portland could climb ahead of the Lakers at some point. The Clippers remain an enigma. They might be in line for a shake-up. And despite losing to the Bucks last night, Popovich seems to have the Spurs back in the race with their youth movement.

The playoffs are closer than people realize... thing are just starting to get interesting.

Last edited by Music City

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