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Interesting analysis from Pro Football Focus

quote:
3TFO: Vikings @ Packers, NFC Wild Card
profootballfocus.com


Fast Start
The way these two teams have played this season this game could be decided by halftime. That is not to say it will be a blow out. Rather, both teams have units that are particularly built to play with a lead (Vikings offense, Packers defense) and it has shown this season. The Vikings are 9-1 when leading at halftime, while the Packers are 8-1 (lone loss was at Indianapolis). Those numbers are staggering, especially considering what the complements mean. The Vikings have come back once from a half time deficit all season, while the Packers have done it three times.

You would expect with the Vikings’ subpar passing game that they would have trouble coming back from a deficit, but it is a little surprising that the Packers haven’t been able to win from behind in more games. When you look at the situations though, it starts to make sense. The teams that have caused the Packers’ halftime deficits, and were able to come away victorious (49ers, Seahawks, Giants, and Vikings) all had success on the ground. In those four games no team passed for 300 yards, but all had more than 120 yards on the ground, at a yards per carry average of at least 4.4. The biggest way to combat their own run defense deficiencies would be for the Packers to score early and often. The more the Vikings are forced to go to the air the better, as it simply means less touches for Peterson. The reintegration of Charles Woodson should help the Packers’ run defense, but not enough that they can afford getting down early.

And, naturally, the Vikings would love to build another early lead. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Vikings can maintain their leads. They have done it simply by β€˜Adrian Petersoning’ (should be a word) their opponents. He doesn’t even mind when the opponents know he’s getting the ball. When Peterson went for 212 yards against the Rams, a safety was in the box 58 times in 60 snaps. When he put up 154 against the Bears, a safety was there 47 times in 58 snaps, and his 199 against the Packers last week came with a safety close 77 times in 71 snaps (two safeties at a time is counted as two). The reason Peterson doesn’t mind is because he breaks so many tackles. He almost never loses balance or speed with contact. If there are more people at the line that just means less help behind, and one broken tackle will go for a longer gain. He averages a league-high 4.06 yards after contact per attempt to go along with his 62 broken tackles on the ground. Trying to play catch up with a running back like that is not advised. Recent history says this one will stay close to the end, but whichever team starts faster will give themselves a distinct advantage. continue
Pretty convincing argument for taking the ball first.

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