TT's drafting of DL

packerboiI lick rainbows

Thought it'd be interesting to do a review of DT's and DE's he's taken since becoming GM. Keep in mind we were in a 4-3 defense until 2009. So needs currently have changed. Nonetheless here's who he drafted:

2005:

DT Mike Montgomery (6th round)

2006:

DE Dave Tollefson (7th round)

DT/DE Jonny Jolly (6th round)

2007:

DE Justin Harrell (1st rounder)

2008:

DE Jeremy Thompson (4th round)

2009: (we switch to the 3-4)

NT BJ Raji (1st round)

DE Jarius Wynn (6th round)

2010:

DE Mike Neal (2nd round)

DE CJ Wilson (7th round)

2011:

DT Lawrence Guy (7th round)

-------------------------------------------------------

10 players taken.

Over half drafted in the 6th or 7th round.

3 taken in the 1st 2 rounds.

Of the 3, one player in Raji is a solid starter. Harrell is out of the NFL. Neal at best is a ? mark at this point.

He made an excellent pick with Jolly. We all know what happened after but in terms of ability to play, he was excellent and worked well in both defensive schemes.

IMO, this is the one area he and his scouts (so far) in large part haven't drafted well.

Raji is a good player but without talent around him (no Jolly no Jenkins), he struggled last season. And he's not a player that can handle a high amount of snaps game after game. He needs to be rotated in and kept fresh.

I'm not convinced taking DL's in high rounds automatically means you get a good player. Time after time, teams take DL in the top rounds and they crap out.

But with 60% of his picks at the DL position coming in the last rounds of the NFL, it's also not a big mystery why these players haven't panned out or at best are back ups. Wynn and Wilson (so far) haven't shown any reason to believe they should be starters.

Does TT's luck change with this draft?

4/1/122:00 PM

Original Post

Replies sorted oldest to newest

FandameMember

Crossin' my fingers it does. If not, at least we have some competition this year with Muir and Hargrove signings. If that doesn't put the current DLs on notice, I don't know what would.

4/1/122:04 PM

packerboiI lick rainbows

TT wasn't picking OL well either but then he struck gold with guys like Bulaga, Lang, Sitton and perhaps even Sherrod (too early to tell).

But he also took these guys in the 1st rounds and 2 in the 4th. None of those players were 6th or 7th rounders.

It's interesting with the exception of Jeremy Thompson, TT has never drafted a DE/NT/DT in the 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds.

4/1/122:18 PM

JJSDSitzpinkler Schadenfreude

I seem to remember reading an article awhile back - like years ago - that on average there are more high-pick DL draft busts than any other position group. The rationale was that (1) DLmen are hard to find and lead to more reaches and (2) it really is a totally different game in the trenches in the NFL compared to college. Guys who could simply dominate on pure athleticism and strength tend to lack technique, and they get schooled by NFL OL because of it for awhile.

That's a crappy draft record, though. Not only is there a dearth of good players, but TT hasn't put much of a draft investment in the position.

4/1/122:19 PM

Rusty42 inch pythons brother!

Montgomery was what he was, a decent backup before the team needed to get better. As a stop-gap for a team that was rebuilding, he did the best he could.

Tollefson went on to become a starter for a very effective Giants D-Line. He may not have done much as a Packer, but I think looking back he was one of TT's best selections to not make the roster, if that makes any sense. Jolly was solid before he went down the wrong path.

Harrell...a gamble that just didn't pay off. I do think he was an important selection however in that he underscored TT's belief in building the team in the trenches.

Thompson didn't really show much but was transitioning to being 3-4 backer before he got hurt. I think he eventually could have been a good backup and possibly a starter last season, given the talent available.

Raji did the best he could last season. Being a pass rusher D-lineman in a 3-4 isn't easy, and he's stood out with talent around him. He may not be a game changer, but I'd take him over most of the other NT's in the league.

Wynn and Wilson are backups in this scheme, nothing more. Neal is so raw as an NFL prospect at this point. I'm not getting my hopes up, but he still has time to turn it around. Guy struggled last year before getting IR'd but that was to be expected. I think a year to learn the scheme and now a full offseason will be beneficial.

4/1/122:19 PM

BorisPerson Man Camera Dildo Shop - NFLFU®

quote:
there are more high-pick DL draft busts than any other position group

I believe that statement is accurate. It makes sense why TT doesn't chance using a high selection on the DL. Low value.

He looks for football players first and players that enjoy playing football. Some of these guys are just in it for the cash & can get away with it because they're talented but at the NFL level you have to really, truly want it. These are the types of players TT looks for & most likely why he is successful at his job.

Excellent DL men aren't easy to find. God only made so many of them.

4/1/122:36 PM

packerboiI lick rainbows

quote:
Originally posted by JJSD:
I seem to remember reading an article awhile back - like years ago - that on average there are more high-pick DL draft busts than any other position group. .

Yep. Read something like that too. And with Harrell crapping out, Neal looking at least for now more of a bust then not, and the dsta on DE's in general busting out I wonder if TT has gotten more gun shy about taking a DL high.

And could be why he's brought in Hargrove, Muir and appears to keep kicking tires on FA DL (Tollefson).

4/1/122:42 PM

Boston JimMember

quote:
Originally posted by Boris:
quote:
there are more high-pick DL draft busts than any other position group

I believe that statement is accurate. It makes sense why TT doesn't chance using a high selection on the DL. Low value.

He looks for football players first and players that enjoy playing football. Some of these guys are just in it for the cash & can get away with it because they're talented but at the NFL level you have to really, truly want it. These are the types of players TT looks for & most likely why he is successful at his job.

Excellent DL men aren't easy to find. God only made so many of them.

I think TT would have done better if he hadn't picked a couple of them that were injured/injury prone. I believe both Harrel and Neil had major injuries in college.

4/1/123:30 PM

fightphoe93Member

It doesn't seem to be horrible except the Neal/Harrell picks tend to skew it down a bit. All those 6th/7th round guys, the odds of having guys like that be starter caliber in the NFL is very slim which is why they last to that point of the draft.

Jolly was a steal when he actually was playing, but eventually the Pack found out why he lasted so long in the draft. He just didn't have the mental makeup for a long NFL career even though he had top level talent.

4/1/124:35 PM

HerschelMember

quote:
Originally posted by Boris:
quote:
there are more high-pick DL draft busts than any other position group

I believe that statement is accurate. It makes sense why TT doesn't chance using a high selection on the DL. Low value.

He looks for football players first and players that enjoy playing football. Some of these guys are just in it for the cash & can get away with it because they're talented but at the NFL level you have to really, truly want it. These are the types of players TT looks for & most likely why he is successful at his job.

Excellent DL men aren't easy to find. God only made so many of them.

I'd like to line them up against Wide Receivers and Quarterbacks. Of course when all D-linemen are lumped together that's two positions vs. one.

4/2/1212:45 AM

Timmy!TIMMAAAAYYY!!

If we can add CM3's pick in 2009, I'll say that the defensive picks that year were outstanding.
The Neal pick in '10 was the right one, considering the timing and value he represented. IIRC, Wilson had the best camp of the draft picks, rookies, UFDA's, and the like; even to the point where Wynn was cut at the final cut-down, if memory is still serving. Nobody was really outstanding; he was just the "best o' the rest".
I guess we can argue for days about the 'whys' the DL picks fell the way they did in '11, but it now looks like it could wind up having the most affect in the long run. If Neal can bounce back, it may not be a big factor, but he's already going to start behind the 8 ball with his suspension.
We don't need another high pick to flame out on us again, but I think it's a fair bet that defensive picks will dominate our draft this year, regardless of trade up/back and other variables.
It'd sure be nice to hit a daily double, if not a trifecta!

4/2/121:47 AM

michiganjoeMember

Harrell's the only real stain there and it's not really a bad draft record. Throw in Pickett and Jenkins and TT's done a reasonably good job of building the DL. The problem is he put all his chips in on Mike Neal last year and came up empty.

4/2/122:56 AM

ChilliJonI hate the Vikings!

quote:
Originally posted by JJSD:
I seem to remember reading an article awhile back - like years ago - that on average there are more high-pick DL draft busts than any other position group. The rationale was that (1) DLmen are hard to find and lead to more reaches and (2) it really is a totally different game in the trenches in the NFL compared to college. Guys who could simply dominate on pure athleticism and strength tend to lack technique, and they get schooled by NFL OL because of it for awhile.

This.

It looks like drafting a DL in round 1 and 2 carries some risk. An analysis from NFL Stats Blog.

Based on this 66% of DL taken in Rd 1 are considered a good pick. "Success" is defined as a player that starts at least 4 years at his position. The fast argument for that would be AJ Hawk. So the numbers are a 30,000ft snapshot.

The article makes a couple points along JJSD's points.

"Although Defensive Line has some of the same attributes of O-Line, it is not quite a safe pick. It is definitely a high risk in the first few rounds, but becomes a bit of a safer pick in the later rounds--hence, why is classified as a "medium" risk above. The surprisingly high risk of D-Line could be attributed to the easier offensive in the college level that make D-Linemen look better; or maybe they are stymied by the high-quality O-Line that are easy to draft and place in the NFL. However, the most likely explanation is the speed, acceleration, and knowledge required for D-Line at the professional level. The complicated NFL offenses, the speed of RBs and quick delivery of QBs make the professional game much different for D-Linemen".

4/2/121:37 PM

PakrzFREEZE!

Bottom line is GB needs guys on the DL that can play. Why there's a void in talent doesn't matter at this point.

Pickett and Raji are all we had last season. Hopefully Muir, Hargrove and maybe Tollefson can help out along with a pick or two.

4/2/121:51 PM

Satori"...going where the climate suits my clothes"

quote:

Why there's a void in talent doesn't matter at this point.

Yes and no - there is always something to be learned from looking back with a critical eye

Quantity begets Quality through competition; and now GB has (2)new DL to compete with Wynn, Wilson, Neal, Guy and any new draftees. DE in the 3-4 isn't the same role as a DE in a 4-3, yet GB spent a 1st on Harrell and a 2nd on Neal- clearly they thought they were getting some pass rush capabilities from them in addition to their space-eating talents.

"IT IS TIME" to find another to come in and compete

4/2/122:38 PM

BrainDedMember

Well, with the FA moves it might be more prudent to look at his LB draft history?

Plenty of starters in that group and some young guys from last year that look good.

4/2/123:13 PM

bubbleboy789Member

This year I expect someone with tremendous talent, most likely a d-linemen, will fall to the Packers and TT will swoop them up. Similar to the way Bulaga or even Aaron Rodgers fell.

4/2/123:35 PM

PakrzFREEZE!

I've seen a few mocks with Courtney Upshaw falling to GB. I thought he was a top 10 guy at one point?

4/2/124:08 PM

"We"-Ka-BongYou ungrateful biscuit eating son of a bitch

every year a talanted player drops into Ted's lap, why would this year be any different.

4/2/125:06 PM

Ghost of LambeauMember

TT should hire a DL consultant - and act on his advise. Can't do much worse.

4/2/129:49 PM

Satori"...going where the climate suits my clothes"

.

I know the perfect DL consultant for that job - I read about a guy by the name of Hine Syte; he's been really solid in his picks for years. You'll even see some of his stuff on message boards from time to time... and he rarely misses

.

4/3/1212:18 AM

trumpMember

Does he live at 2020 Dontknowarsefromholeintheground Drive?

4/3/1212:26 AM

HerschelMember

quote:
Originally posted by Pakrz:
I've seen a few mocks with Courtney Upshaw falling to GB. I thought he was a top 10 guy at one point?

I started putzing with one and I have him going to Philadelphia at 15. The thing about Upshaw is he's probably not a premier pass rusher but a good all-around guy like a Wimbley or Lawson with more upside at this point. I think a lot of teams are reluctant to spend a top pick on a guy who isn't a good bet for 10+ sacks per season at DE/OLB. Upshaw's probably a 7-9 guy I'm guessing even though he'll probably do well againt the run and even cover some.

4/3/128:21 AM

Ghost of LambeauMember

quote:
Originally posted by Satori:
.

I know the perfect DL consultant for that job - I read about a guy by the name of Hine Syte; he's been really solid in his picks for years. You'll even see some of his stuff on message boards from time to time... and he rarely misses

.

Can you get that information to TT before he drafts a "James Lee" in round one again? I know - Lee - Harrell - what's the difference. Neither could find the field if they were standing on it.

4/3/1211:51 AM

kworstSour Grapes

His drafting has been absolutely pathetic. Thanks for pointing this out.

4/3/1212:59 PM

HenryYou rang?

Perfunctory dumb
Snivel about Stepford life
Sweater vest my life

4/3/121:49 PM

50k ClubMember

10 picks total. If 60 percent of the picks are 6th and 7th rounders, it will be tough to find quality starters at that rate. Obviously TT was going for a shotgun approach and hopefully hitting on one or two. Jolly was the most successful of this bunch, but we know the rest of the story. I think TT is right to avoid drafting DL in early rounds, but hopefully he'll find some value in the 3 or 4th rounds to pull the trigger on a DL.

4/3/126:42 PM

TDMember

quote:
Originally posted by kworst:
His drafting has been absolutely pathetic. Thanks for pointing this out.

Suck your suck and sing tollefson.

I really think Lawrence Guy could turn into a decent 3-4 end. I was impressed when he played against Wisconsin a couple years back and held up well vs the Badgers in Carimi/Oglesby. He's got a big body and should be there when camp starts.

4/3/126:59 PM

kworstSour Grapes

Mike NEal has a big body as well and is very very strong. Hope 7th rounder Guy will play just as well as Mike NEAL

4/4/129:15 AM

TDMember

Cos god forbid, no 7th rounds ever make it in the NFL.

4/4/1212:11 PM

HauserMember

How does this guy sound opposite CMIII?

Mcclellin

4/5/127:55 AM

TdogProspective Member

nice story. Chicken Dinner Road, love it.

if he's all that I'd love to see him in G&G... and to see his Gma screaming up and down Chicken Dinner Road with joy.

4/5/128:10 AM

PakrzFREEZE!

quote:
Originally posted by Hauser:
How does this guy sound opposite CMIII?

Mcclellin

We're taking him with our first pick Hauser... I've already spoken to TT about this. The kid is tailor-made for our defense... skill set, work ethic, background, approach to the game, etc.

Mark it down?

4/5/1210:15 AM

LarseeBearMember

According to Waldo's formula, Mcclellin is just another guy like Popinga. We need studs on the other side of CMIII.

4/5/1210:19 AM

H5Keyboard Warrior, troll hunter

1st pick maybe, but not in the 1st round.

4/5/1210:19 AM

PakrzFREEZE!

****ing Waldo? Really??

4/5/1211:19 AM

PakrzFREEZE!

quote:
Originally posted by Hungry5:
1st pick maybe, but not in the 1st round.

I think TT could trade back into the top of R2 and still get the kid. He reminds me an awful lot of Jordy Nelson. Different positions obviously.

4/5/1211:21 AM

H5Keyboard Warrior, troll hunter

That's what I was thinking. It's likely that Thompson only has 1 - 3 guys in his 1st round/28th pick range and if they go before GB picks he moves back. Or, like with Nelson, the player is still there at 28 and he believes he can move back and still get him.

4/5/1211:40 AM

BorisPerson Man Camera Dildo Shop - NFLFU®

quote:
Originally posted by LarseeBear:
According to Waldo's formula, Mcclellin is just another guy like Popinga.

According to THIS GUY who happens to work for the NFL Network, he's not JAG

4/5/123:32 PM

IowacheeseKeen Insight

quote:
Originally posted by :
Suck your suck and sing tollefson.

A herd of buffalo can only move as fast as the slowest buffalo and when the herd is hunted, it is the slowest and weakest ones at the back that are killed first. This natural selection is good for the herd as a whole, because the general speed and health of the whole group keeps improving by the regular killing of the weakest members. In much the same way, the human brain can only operate as fast as the slowest brain cells. Now, as we know, excessive drinking of alcohol kills brain cells. But naturally, it attacks the slowest and weakest brain cells first. In this way, regular consumption of beer eliminates the weaker brain cells, making the brain a faster and more efficient machine. And that, Norm, is why you always feel smarter after a few beers.

4/5/123:59 PM

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