Why Sunday's Game in Arizona Will Be Different

The Heckler posted:

Well listening to the talking heads during the last 24 hours they all seem to think that the Packers have no chance and should pretty much not even board their flight to Arizona.  I have heard things like "guaranteed to lose" "this one will go just like last time" blah blah. 

F'em Packers!  Go Pack Go!!

F them is right.  The national media sure do not like the Green Bay Packers any time of the year.  It just shows how screwed up society is.  The media would rather publicize stories of franchises that have Manziel drinking too much, Rice and Peterson beating too much, and Jerry Jones just being a douche too much than a small market team like the Packers who are owned by everyday Americans.  That is a feel good story that should be publicized all the time in this day and age of horror stories across the world.  It never is. 

I understand that the Packers should be underdogs, but I guarantee you that if the Redskins would have won last week these ****s would say the Redskins have a chance this week.  It all goes back to my opening statement.  After the Packers win they will have no choice, but to give the Packers some attention.  Go Packers!

It always amazes me that folks get so worked up over what someone says/writes about heir team.  Really.  If the Packers player better than the Cards they will win, if not they lose.  Makes no difference what any writer, commentator, opposing team fan or Internet poster says.

R E L A X, have fun, enjoy the season.  Go Pack

Exactly! How many times do we have to read posts about Buck & Aikman "hating the Packers". It is really very "13 year-old-girl-like" 

Sure am glad we don't have Buck and Aikman this weekend. They hate the Packers!

Sure am glad we don't have Buck and Aikman this weekend. I can't stand listening to them!

Great...Clit is the ref.

They hired Justin Bieber to do color, just for you. 

Not sure where the perception arose that the Packers are some national whipping boy.  They've been playing badly of late so their prospects are not seen as too promising but if anything, the traditional, small town, fan owned, against all odds success story is played to death. It's one of the sources for the team's national following but it downplays the fact that,  like every other franchise, it's a billion dollar corporation that does everything it can to maximize its net.

Mike & Mike asked St Louis fans who they would root for now that the Rams were gone. One dude wrote, "The Packers because they have no owner".

I don't watch nfl talk shows much anymore but the one thing I noticed last weekend before the game is that not one commentator gave the D any props.  Fair enough to rip the offense but the D has been pretty damn solid.

I'd be shocked if this week, during the pre-games, the focus isn't on the D.  The D has been pretty good all year, and it appears to be strengthening at the right time!

If the D could get more takeaways from the Cards, we'd be in great shape to pull the upset. Can't be dropping INTs like we did last week...

If you want to win this game it comes down to protecting Aaron of course and we must get to Palmer and have it create turnovers. This is the time to take calculated risks that are meant to turn the game.

When you factor in sacks the Packers are near the bottom of the heap in offensive passing efficiency. Arizona is # 1. We won't win if we are on our heels trying to cover even with our great back end. Only aggressive attacking of Palmer can win this one. He must be under pressure or we are sunk.

If it were me...I'd do something exotic in an attempt to give Palmer a snot bubble as soon as possible. He's pretty brittle too...so he might be prone to being a much different guy after a good early hit.

Just sayin...that's how they did it in the old school...especially to a team off a lay-off.

Do not let them get their juices flowing again...attack Palmer at all costs and let the chips fall where they may.

If our receivers can't get open it isn't going to matter if we can protect AR or not, we still are not going to be able to sustain drives. In order to run vs. them we must get Buchanan out of the box. If they are able to play single press coverage on the outside, with one high safety all night we are going to struggle to score enough to win. Really interested (and hopeful) to see if MM comes up with something to get guys open rather than the individual routes we've seen most of the year. 

The offense needs to shorten the game. Even if it doesn't result in points, or just FGs, sustain some drives and no turnovers. Give the D a chance to regroup when the Cardinals do put on a drive. 3 and out on offense is their defense's greatest enemy. The Packers' 3rd down % will probably tell the tale of the game. TOP favors the Packers, you have a pretty good chance.

keep it close and low scoring. 

Man, looks like Adams is out for the game.  Assuming the offensive line is basically intact, I really think the main issue is receivers.  Adams had close to 50 receiving yards in basically one half of play.

Hopefully Abbrederis can contribute enough to have the receiving group open up the passing game.

RTFB and SCORE SOME POINTS!!!  Those are the keys.

Packers were only 3-11 on third down against a pretty bad Washington defense. Might very well take a score from the defense and/or special teams to get the 24-28 that will likely be necessary.

2 words: Aaron Rodgers

On Mike and Mike this morning:  This week-end's 4 matchups features 4 #1 overall picks (Palmer, Newton, Smith and Manning) against 4 Superbowl winning HOFers  (Rodgers, Wilson, Rothlesburger and Brady).  Both Mikes said they'd take the second group by a mile.

Down year or not, it's a Quarterback-driven league and we're riding a Cadillac. Come on Aaron!!

Hungry5 posted:

RTFB and SCORE SOME POINTS!!!  Those are the keys.

Agree.

Along with PASS RUSH!      PASS RUSH!      PASS RUSH!

We're going to win the turnover battle.  

michiganjoe posted:

Packers were only 3-11 on third down against a pretty bad Washington defense. Might very well take a score from the defense and/or special teams to get the 24-28 that will likely be necessary.

That is very worrisome, but on the other hand in order to win this game I will assume the Packers will have to break recent trends so the optimist says it plays into the possum theory.

 3rd down % has been especially good this year at predicting which team will win. That sounds obvious but I'm talking about it being predictive not correlating after the fact.

In other words teams with the higher 3rd % coming into a game are 144-111 56.5% using only that stat to predict the winner for all regular season games played this year.

It beats all of the other common stats such as rushing yards per play...turnovers...and passing yards per play. 

Predictive Rate of Victory

Final Statistics for the 2015 Season

About Predictive Rate of Victory. Predictive Rate of Victory measures how often a given indicator predicts victory, i.e., how often teams better in a given indicator beat their opponent that week. Please note Week 1 performance is measured by final year-end stats from the previous season.

http://www.coldhardfootballfac.../2015/Final/Predict/

If we rely on stats, we're doomed.  They just need to start winning their 1-on-1's, being more physical and determined.

While I agree 3rd down % is often a critical stat, there are exceptions.  I don't think it tells the whole story of last week because they were picking up first downs on 1st and 2nd down.  They had a game or two like that early in the year too where their 3rd down stats didn't look good but they won handily.  Not likely to be the case vs. ARZ but I thought I'd throw that out there.

phaedrus posted:

  Adams had close to 50 receiving yards in basically one half of play.

That can't be.  TT is going to cut him this offseason.

Stats are for losers.   - Mike McCarthy

Hungry5 posted:

Stats are for losers.   - Mike McCarthy

Dom Capers: CHFF™s Passer Rating Differential 'Most Significant' Stat In Football

The Packers are a textbook study in the importance of PRD. They finished No. 1 in PRD in 1961, 1962, 1965, 1966, 1996 and 2010 and won NFL championships each and every year.

The 1967 Packers finished No. 3 in PRD, but turned it on the postseason (+42.5 in three games) on their way to a record third straight NFL championship and back-to-back victories in the first two Super Bowls.

The 2011 Packers finished No. 1, as well, but fell short in the playoffs after a franchise-record 15 regular-season wins. The 2012 Packers are, once again, No. 1 in PRD, for the third year in a row. The 2009 Packers finished No. 2.

It’s no coincidence that Green Bay’s resurgence to Lombardi-Era levels of PRD coincides with the arrival of defensive coordinator Dom Capers in 2009.

CHFF readers get it.

Capers gets it. Very few so-called pro football experts do get it.

http://www.footballnation.com/...stat-football/20756/

So, what's the PRD for this year?  

PackerRuss posted:

So, what's the PRD for this year?  

Passer Rating Differential

Final Statistics for the 2015 Season
About Passer Rating Differential. This indicator is nothing more than the difference between a team's Offensive Passer Rating and Defensive Passer Rating.

We call it the Mother of All Stats because it has an incredible Correlation to Victory and to championship success, as we’ve reported in many outlets, including in a 2012 presentation at NFL Films: 26 of 73 NFL champs since 1940 finished No. 1 in Passer Rating Differential (36%); 44 finished in the Top 3 in PRD (6%) and 69 finished in the Top 10 (95%).

We would argue that you cannot truly analyze football without studying Passer Rating Differential and if you disagree you're shamelessly ignorant tool. You can also read about the historic importance of the indicator here and here on SportsIllustrated.com.

http://www.coldhardfootballfac...tats/2015/Final/PRD/

Exactly why we started the season 6-0, passer rating well over 100 through 6 games. I still maintain that in an individual game winning two stats will win you the game 90%+ of the time; 1) Turnover differential 2) average yards gained per pass attempt. 

Pistol GB posted:

2 words: Aaron Rodgers

On Mike and Mike this morning:  This week-end's 4 matchups features 4 #1 overall picks (Palmer, Newton, Smith and Manning) against 4 Superbowl winning HOFers  (Rodgers, Wilson, Rothlesburger and Brady).  Both Mikes said they'd take the second group by a mile.

Down year or not, it's a Quarterback-driven league and we're riding a Cadillac. Come on Aaron!!

 

I hope he plays like a Cadillac.  I also caught a brief segment of M&M this morning and I heard them talk about Ron Jaworski saying that Arod's performance against Washington was Fool's Gold.  Not having heard Jaworski, I can only guess what he meant, but I still think that the way 12 played against the Redskins was still not up to his prior standards.  He still looks off a bit.  I am guessing that after the season is over we are going to learn that he had some type of shoulder issue.  Can't imagine how you go from being one of the most accurate Qb's in history to one that is missing open receivers.  Unless he is the football version of Steve Sax or Chuck Knoblauch.

I believe he was frustrated and pressing, like Steve Sax.

FLPACKER posted:

Exactly why we started the season 6-0, passer rating well over 100 through 6 games. I still maintain that in an individual game winning two stats will win you the game 90%+ of the time; 1) Turnover differential 2) average yards gained per pass attempt. 

Here is the Packers regular season PRD in graph form. I've never seen this done before. Hog heaven for stat geeks.

Interesting stat.  A few things jump out, which have been mentioned.  

1. Most of the playoff teams are in the Top 10.  
2. Our D has been equal to AZ D, in opposing QB's passer rating.  The difference between the 2 teams is that CP has played better than AR.
3. We already torched one QB with a passer rating over 100, we can do it again.

We'll see.  Thanks for the find!

"CP has played better than AR."

I think the talent of the receiving corps may have something to do with that. 

FLPACKER posted:

"CP has played better than AR."

I think the talent of the receiving corps may have something to do with that. 

 

That is probably a factor, but regardless, it is a fact that Palmer has played better.  

Pressure, pressure, pressure.... WE CAN DO THIS!

We need Adams & Quentin Rollins & Shields.

Just don't see how we can win without them

We can win without Adams if Abby steps up.

Whistling through the graveyard....

Pistol GB posted:

This week-end's 4 matchups features 4 #1 overall picks (Palmer, Newton, Smith and Manning) against 4 Superbowl winning HOFers  (Rodgers, Wilson, Rothlesburger and Brady).  Both Mikes said they'd take the second group by a mile. 

I agree with the sentiment, but I sure hope they haven't set aside any bronze for little Russy just yet.