2021 NBA Playoffs

The Celtics have to be underdogs to make it out of the playin games. A team that was Tatum, Brown, Irving, Horford, Hayward, T. Rozier, and Smart two years ago is now just Tatum and Smart with some other guys. This also brings up the fact that a top 100 player in the NBA (Al Horford) who is healthy was just told by his team (OKC) that they didn't want to play him the last third of the season because he might help them win too many games. And somehow the NBA and the players association is OK with this?

The first-round of the playoffs is likely to have multiple upsets.

The most likely is whoever ends up playing the Lakers (IF AD and LeBron are somewhat healthy). The Lakers are likely to end up with the Suns. The Suns will really get screwed over if this is the case. They completely turn things around, have one of the best records in the league, and then end up against the defending champions in the first round. If not the Suns, then the Nuggets.

The other one of the top two seeds will likely end up with the Warriors and if Steph goes nuclear that could tip the other way very quickly.

The next most likely is, unfortunately, Heat over the Bucks. The Bucks had the massive blowout win over the Heat, but in the other 2 games, the Heat were 37 for 88 from 3. That, and the fact that Bam does slow down Giannis better than perhaps any other defender, remains a big problem.  The Bucks really need to win both Games 1 and 2, but Game 1 is huge to set a tone in particular. If they don't, the pressure ratchets way up.

The Nets will make it through to the 2nd round, but a matchup against the Wizards is not going to be fun. Even a sweep would require a lot of effort, because the over/under for total points in those games might be 275.

There are some interesting matchups no doubt about it.  

I don’t think anyone in the East wants to play Washington.  The Bucks didn’t catch much of a break either with the Heat although Milwaukee having Holiday and Tucker and Miami not having Olynyk and Crowder is a big deal.  The Bucks match up a lot better with Miami this year as compared to last year.

Out West, until they prove it, I think Phoenix and Utah are vulnerable.  

@Tschmack posted:

There are some interesting matchups no doubt about it.  

I don’t think anyone in the East wants to play Washington.  The Bucks didn’t catch much of a break either with the Heat although Milwaukee having Holiday and Tucker and Miami not having Olynyk and Crowder is a big deal.  The Bucks match up a lot better with Miami this year as compared to last year.

Out West, until they prove it, I think Phoenix and Utah are vulnerable.  

The Wizards are one of those teams that could lose to the worst team in the league one night and beat the NBA champs the next night. It's the nature of their two best players.

Beal can easily get you 35-40 on many nights, it's just that he's almost guaranteed to cost you almost that many points on the defensive end. As I've said in other threads, his defense often makes Bryn Forbes look like Paul Pressey. Westbrook always goes 100 miles an hour no matter whether the situation requires or it not. I could see them playing the Nets and having Beal average 40 and Westrook something like 25/15/15 and the Nets would win in 5 games. That's because Durant, Irving, and Harden might average 100 a game by themselves.

That’s the advantage of being the home team over a 7 game series.   Usually, a lesser team may steal one game or maybe two games, but in a best of 7 the better team usually wins out especially at home.

@Tschmack posted:

The Bucks didn’t catch much of a break either with the Heat although Milwaukee having Holiday and Tucker and Miami not having Olynyk and Crowder is a big deal.  The Bucks match up a lot better with Miami this year as compared to last year.

💯

Assuming Giannis, Middleton, Lopez, DDV, and Connaughton are equal to what they were last year (and I'd argue Giannis is better even though he won't win the MVP), this is the comparison.

Holiday, Portis, Forbes, Tucker, and Teague

vs.

Bledsoe, M. Williams, Matthews, Korver, R. Lopez, and Ilyasova.

Holiday is much better than Bledsoe. It's difficult to put how much better into words.

Portis is a huge upgrade over M. Williams/Ilyasova as a stretch 4 on offense.

Tucker is a huge upgrade over Matthews on defense and similar on offense.

Forbes is a version of Korver that can at least try to guard someone.

Teague is a better offensive PG than Bledsoe.

I'd argue that even Nwora is a better option than Ilyasova for a deep bench wing.

If the Bucks lose this year, it won't be because one of the "support" guys collapses in a whimpering mess under the pressure (Bledsoe, Mirotic). Holiday and Tucker alone give you a huge upgrade of toughness and won't fold under the pressure.

If the Bucks do go home early, it will be because Giannis and Middleton didn't produce like max players.

The metrics are this. If they don't get out of the first round, it's a total disaster and Bud should be bone.

If they get beat by the Nets in a hard-fought second-round series, that would suck. But the Nets have some of the best collection of offensive talent in history. I wouldn't say losing to them was an unexpected collapse.

I would be more disappointed in losing to the Sixers than in losing to the Nets.

That’s a good point on Nwora

He gets lost in the shuffle but the guy can flat out shoot and score.  The problem is, Bud will pull a Sterling Brown and let him sit on the bench.  

If the Bucks lose in R1 there is no way Bud should survive.  

Jordan Nwora has a real shot to be a top of the rotation player. Bucks brass had a 1st round grade on him, that’s why they traded up. And his ability to hit shots- stepbacks, pull ups, catch and shoot- plus he can get to the rim a little, too.

He’s making Portis expendable, and that’s huge. Portis has been a perfect addition, no question, but he has a player option for +$3M, and he has to be looking at 8 figures annually. And my main concern is he cannot defend or rebound well enough to justify an 8 figure annual contract.

Having a 2nd round guy step in and show he can play is huge- and a summer of weight room and film study with his versatility is a win/win putting him in as the first big off the bench.

Diakite is the project. He’s going to need a couple more years, I think. He has game, but he’s completely lost out there on both ends. Weights and film for him will help, but until he proves he can play at the level needed, he’s not really a part of next year’s 9-10 man rotation.

Nwora played 3 games this year where he played starter's minutes. Those 3 games were 36 minutes against the Knicks, 36 minutes against the Bulls, and 32 minutes against the Hornets. In those 3 games, he averaged 26.3 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.3 assists on 52.6 from the floor and 46.1% from 3. If you redrafted the today he might go at the end of the lottery picks.

The stat that jumps out is this (from Jake Reetz on Twitter). His 3 point shooting off the dribble is Steph Curry-like. His catch and shoot percentage from 3 is just league average. It must be a rhythm thing, because most of his 3s off the dribble are step backs that are contested.

@Music City posted:

Jordan Nwora has a real shot to be a top of the rotation player. Bucks brass had a 1st round grade on him, that’s why they traded up. And his ability to hit shots- stepbacks, pull ups, catch and shoot- plus he can get to the rim a little, too.

He’s making Portis expendable, and that’s huge. Portis has been a perfect addition, no question, but he has a player option for +$3M, and he has to be looking at 8 figures annually. And my main concern is he cannot defend or rebound well enough to justify an 8 figure annual contract.

Having a 2nd round guy step in and show he can play is huge- and a summer of weight room and film study with his versatility is a win/win putting him in as the first big off the bench.

Diakite is the project. He’s going to need a couple more years, I think. He has game, but he’s completely lost out there on both ends. Weights and film for him will help, but until he proves he can play at the level needed, he’s not really a part of next year’s 9-10 man rotation.

Portis reminds me of Tim Thomas the year that Big Dog/Allen/Cassell got them to the ECFs. He was 41% from 3 that year. Another 6'10" guy that wasn't a great rebounder or defender.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Nwora played 3 games this year where he played starter's minutes. Those 3 games were 36 minutes against the Knicks, 36 minutes against the Bulls, and 32 minutes against the Hornets. In those 3 games, he averaged 26.3 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.3 assists on 52.6 from the floor and 46.1% from 3. If you redrafted the today he might go at the end of the lottery picks.

That’s REALLY encouraging... the Bucks have to be salivating about having a guy like Nwora develop next to a guy that gets teammates more open 3s than anyone else in the NBA.

@Music City posted:

That’s REALLY encouraging... the Bucks have to be salivating about having a guy like Nwora develop next to a guy that gets teammates more open 3s than anyone else in the NBA.

He should spend all summer practicing catch and shoot 3s. It's all about whether he can hold up on defense. He's probably really the insurance against Bryn Forbes leaving for a lot more money to play for a team like the Lakers.

Again, the issue is Nwora could help them now.  That’s why I made the Sterling Brown comparison.

If you remember, toward end of 2019 season he stepped in and played (I believe for a hurt Brogdon or George Hill) and did pretty well.  He was really good in playoffs against Detroit.  Then it got to Toronto and he played like 9 minutes the whole series.

Bud gets weird with younger guys and I’m sure he’ll screw things up with Nwora too.

Par for the course... that’s why the all rookie team are on bad teams, mostly. Coaches can actually play these younger players.

Indiana dropping the hammer on Charlotte... up 30 in the 3rd...

J. Tatum goes for 50 as the Wizards shoot 3 for 21 from 3.

Beal clearly not 100% and the Wizards can’t play D.  

Boston and Indiana still aren’t scaring anyone

Warriors kinda blowing a chance to get a big lead here. They have the Lakers out of rhythm but they’re missing shots.

Curry with an impossible shot to give the Warriors a 13 point lead at the half... wow!

LeBron/Davis/Schroeder- 4/28 in the first half.

Schroeder getting away with a LOT of grabbing and hand-checking...

Warriors getting sloppy with the ball... had a 12 point lead, down to 6.

James tried to act his way to get Green out of the game- fails. Common foul. Next possession, Matthews flops and gets an illegal screen.

Golden State lives and dies by whether Green can actually make shots. Last night, he has a wide open floater as time expired and barely draws iron. Morant goes off in OT... Warriors go home.

Washington giving Philly everything they can handle.  Halfway through 3Q and 4 point lead for the Wiz.

Playoffs have been pretty entertaining so far.  Dallas and Portland look pesky.  I expect the Bucks series to go 6 or maybe even 7.  And Phoenix draws arguably the toughest first round matchup in NBA playoff history.

Ben Simmons making Giannis look like Steph Curry at the line.

0 for 6.

And it looks like LeBron James will luck out again in the playoffs. Chris Paul goes down and looks like have to a potentially severe shoulder injury. Suns were up double digits over the Lakers in the second quarter. Without Paul, the Suns are likely a lottery team.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

And it looks like LeBron James will luck out again in the playoffs. Chris Paul goes down and looks like have to a potentially severe shoulder injury. Suns were up double digits over the Lakers in the second quarter. Without Paul, the Suns are likely a lottery team.

Looks like Paul just has a bruise. The way he went down and stayed down, a lot of people thought he had a serious injury.

Bogdanovich hitting a lot of big shots down the stretch in the Knicks-Hawks game.

Knicks/Hawks game was outstanding.

Loved Trae Young looking at the crowd & acting all cold. with 0.9 left.

I think Denver got back on track. Portland is not the better team, at least to me.

@Music City posted:

I think Denver got back on track. Portland is not the better team, at least to me.

Not having Jamal Murray really changes the dynamic, though.

With a healthy Murray I’m not sure Denver isn’t the favorite coming out of the West.  

Utah up 20 at the half... down to 5.

Utah starts 4th on a 10-0 run and never looks back. Morant with a epic game- might have a 50-burger but not enough from the rest... lots of foul trouble..

Jayson Tatum has 40 points after 3 quarters and the Celtics are up 12 on the Nets.

Jeff Green is out for at least 10 days and the Nets are down a decent defender when they didn't have a lot to spare in that department.

The Celtics getting a game could spell trouble for the Nets. If that series gets to 6 games...

So after 1 week, in the East:

Bucks up 3-0 over the Heat

Philly up 2-0 over Washington

Hawks up 2-1 over the Knicks

Brooklyn up 2-1 over Boston

Honestly, I was kinda surprised Boston made it in, and to get the W last night was even more surprising. Tatum is going off- how is Brooklyn going to stop the Bucks if they can’t stop a one-man show? Sure Harden/Durant combine for 90, but Tatum became the 3rd youngest ever to score 50 in a playoff game (Rick Barry, Michael Jordan). They play Sunday in Boston to see if Tatum has a 3rd 50 point game in his arsenal in this playoffs (he dropped a 50-burger on Washington to win the 8-9 play-in game). Bucks can drop the final killing blow this afternoon in Miami (again, the Bucks suck at early afternoon games).

Out West no huge surprises so far, but the top 2 seeds... they might be in trouble:

Utah and Memphis are tied 1-1

Dallas leads the Clippers 2-1

Denver is now up 2-1 after stumbling game 1

And unsurprisingly the Lakers are up 2-1 on the Suns

Chris Paul can’t raise his arm over his head... he’s clearly not 100%, and that means the Suns are cooked. Tough draw getting the Lakers, but oh well. Paul will opt out and the Knicks will come calling. Utah righted the ship after playing rusty game 1- game 3 will be critical, of course. Memphis is a young, plucky team with a bunch of kids who are just figuring shit out. Morant has been spectacular. The most intriguing matchup has been Dallas/Clippers. Clippers avoided going down 3-0 with the win last night- game 4 should be a friggin war in Dallas.

Lakers only play Anthony Davis for 19 min and the Suns even the series... Lakers are in trouble...