2021 Salary Cap & Future Caps

I've heard talk about a one time cap adjustment for 2021 to get around the hole they have themselves in. If they just go by the formula there's going to be a record number of free agent players in March.

I've read where the 'Aints are something like $98M over the projected cap.
I don't feel sorry for them, but how could they cope with this without gutting their entire team?
They shouldn't get a free pass, but as 'Hawk said, without some kind of adjustment, a lot of teams are going to look much different in 2021.

This has been mentioned on here before although we’ve not had an official number yet. Going to be tough to get down. I think they can squeeze $9-$11M out of renegotiation Rodgers and ZSmith contracts. Going to have to make some tough calls with PSmith, Kirksey, Wagner, and possibly Amos. Fortunately I think we can survive all of those losses.

The concerning part is that we have a ton of key RFAs to tender and a draft class to sign. That’s probably $10M combined alone. That’s key guys like Lazard, Tonyan, Sullivan and others.

@Timmy! posted:

I've read where the 'Aints are something like $98M over the projected cap.
I don't feel sorry for them, but how could they cope with this without gutting their entire team?
They shouldn't get a free pass, but as 'Hawk said, without some kind of adjustment, a lot of teams are going to look much different in 2021.

Anyone know the vikings cap numbers? How will Kark's contract screw them over?

I am reminded by something Andrew Brandt said a few weeks ago. Namely, that Packer fans worry far more about the salary cap then anyone inside the Packer Organization, who is actually overseeing or in charge of the cap ever would.

These guys know what they are doing. Not once since the Ron Wolf era through today have the Packers ever put themselves into cap hell. And they won't start now.

According to Gute, the structure of Bakh's deal is such that Gute believes they can actually look in FA and perhaps sign a FA or 2 they normally wouldn't be able to due to the adjusted cap.  I have no doubt they will figure it out. And maybe even sign a FA that's not even on our radar right now.       

packerboi,  I agree with your post.  I will give the Packers credit for a couple of things is that they manage the cap probably better than everyone, they keep the dead money to a minimum, and they are excellent at getting rid of talent that is getting ready to fall off.  A lot of people are down on Gute but I think he has things going in the right direction and we are in good shape as a franchise right now.

@The Heckler posted:

packerboi,  I agree with your post.  I will give the Packers credit for a couple of things is that they manage the cap probably better than everyone, they keep the dead money to a minimum, and they are excellent at getting rid of talent that is getting ready to fall off.  A lot of people are down on Gute but I think he has things going in the right direction and we are in good shape as a franchise right now.

He’s been good in free agency. His draft class this year is the problem. You need to have your draft picks contribute quickly. We are one of about 6-8 teams that could win the Super Bowl with the right breaks. We were in the NFC title game last year and could see run defense was a problem. They did nothing to address any weak spots in the draft. If they fall short, which is likely, getting players in Rounds 1-4 that could have improved the team this year could be the difference between a title and a playoff loss in the divisional round. The plan seemed to have been to draft the two Aaron’s replacements in this draft to reduce cap hits down the road. In other words, sacrifice this year to see if Love and Dillon can eventually be Pro Bowl players. We already know Jones and Rodgers are Pro Bowl players you can win with now. We decided to draft and redshirt guys so we might be better in 2023.

P Smith is a possibility.  His 2021 cap hit is $16m but if they cut him it's a $8m dead cap hit.  He hasn't been very good this year and barring an injury he's playing through, it's hard to pay him that much in 2021.  Plus, they have Gary ready to replace him.  Can't let your #12 pick be a backup forever. 

Other guy that makes sense to cut is Kirksey.  They can save $6m if they cut him.  He's just not worth the $8m cap hit in 2021. 

Not that the Z Smith, P Smith, Amos and Turner deals from 2019 were bad, but this year's cap crunch is greatly due to those signings.  All those contracts had very low cap hits in the first year with huge hits in 2021 and on - only $22m in 2019 but combine for a $55m cap hit in 2021. 

Wow the Saints are screwed next year.  Just looked them up and yes they are $93m over the cap but it's even worse than that b/c they don't have an easy way to cut salary to get under.  Their biggest cap savings are Brees, Alexander, Ramcyk, Lattimore, Armistead, and Jenkins but even if they cut all of them, they're still $30m over the cap.  Their cuts are going to run deep next year. 

I feel a bit sad for the players entering FA this year. With the number likely to come free due to the reduced cap, there will be a glut on the market. Even teams with a boatload of space aren't going to sign top $ free agents to be backups. Coupled with a fan's tendency to over rate their team's players among the larger talent pool (Tonyan, Lazard, Williams, King, even A Jones) I believe there will be less carnage within the roster than the raw numbers indicate.  I can see 1 or 2 year  contracts that would carry these players over to a more normal  fiscal environment and give them a chance at their honey pot deal down the road.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

You need to have your draft picks contribute quickly.

Why? Is it need them to, or would like them to? I suspect most NFL personnel folks are more the latter.

We are one of about 6-8 teams that could win the Super Bowl with the right breaks.

True. Seems not having picks contributing quickly has not been a problem to date.

We were in the NFC title game last year and could see run defense was a problem.

The offense was a significant problem in that game.

They did nothing to address any weak spots in the draft.

The draft is not the only way to improve a team year over year.

If they fall short, which is likely, getting players in Rounds 1-4 that could have improved the team this year could be the difference between a title and a playoff loss in the divisional round.

Likely, really? Your 2nd sentence seems to contradicts this opinion.

The plan seemed to have been to draft the two Aaron’s replacements in this draft to reduce cap hits down the road. In other words, sacrifice this year to see if Love and Dillon can eventually be Pro Bowl players. We already know Jones and Rodgers are Pro Bowl players you can win with now. We decided to draft and redshirt guys so we might be better in 2023.

Why not have both? Win now, and build for the future.

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-p...mes-per-team-in-2021

Good news for Green Bay since they are as of now, one of the worst teams for cap space in 2021

There may be more guys than usual willing to restructure or take a pay cut this year, as well. I don't think many tags will be used, either.

Philly is in an interesting position. They have the second-worst cap situation, but that includes a full 52 players under contract for next season. The dead cap hit for cutting their most expensive guys is more expensive than their actual salaries, though. Dumping Derek Barnett and Marquise Goodwin would  gain them a bit over $14 million as neither would have dead cap space. Cutting Alshon Jeffrey and DeSean Jackson gets them another roughly $14 million. In what's supposed to be another good WR draft and Josh Sweat on board, that's a solid start, at least.

Then there's Houston at a little over $16 million in the hole. They have 46 players signed and don't have a pick in the first two rounds. They can dump Brandin Cooks and Duke Johnson and basically be flush, but how do they replace anybody?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2021/

Updated numbers

$182.5M

Down 8% from last year...

Some teams are fucked...

@Herschel posted:

There may be more guys than usual willing to restructure or take a pay cut this year, as well. I don't think many tags will be used, either.

Philly is in an interesting position. They have the second-worst cap situation, but that includes a full 52 players under contract for next season. The dead cap hit for cutting their most expensive guys is more expensive than their actual salaries, though. Dumping Derek Barnett and Marquise Goodwin would  gain them a bit over $14 million as neither would have dead cap space. Cutting Alshon Jeffrey and DeSean Jackson gets them another roughly $14 million. In what's supposed to be another good WR draft and Josh Sweat on board, that's a solid start, at least.

Then there's Houston at a little over $16 million in the hole. They have 46 players signed and don't have a pick in the first two rounds. They can dump Brandin Cooks and Duke Johnson and basically be flush, but how do they replace anybody?

The geniuses these run these caps will figure it out.

The #Packers gained $1.34M in cap space by turning $1.675M of K Mason Crosby's salary into a signing bonus and adding three voidable years, according to a source. It allowed them to spread the bonus out over five years.

— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 23, 2021

In another cap saving move, the #Packers reduced S Adrian Amos' base salary by $3.91M, converting that money into a signing bonus. Between the two moves, the #Packers are roughly $8M under the salary, which is how they were able to sign CB Kevin King.

— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 23, 2021

And they still need to make room for rookie signings if the 4 million number is correct. 

King eating 6 mil is a bit hard to swallow but what are you gonna do?

@Herschel posted:

Then there's Houston at a little over $16 million in the hole. They have 46 players signed and don't have a pick in the first two rounds. They can dump Brandin Cooks and Duke Johnson and basically be flush, but how do they replace anybody?

That is one fucked team.  I hear Tyler Lancaster is available to fill the Watt void.

King eating 6 mil is a bit hard to swallow but what are you gonna do?

What is find somebody to play average CB for 8 game for 1/4 the price, Alex.

Per source, the NFL and the NFLPA have agreed to a salary cap ceiling of $208.2 million for the 2022 season. If it gets there, that would be a 14 percent increase over the 2021 cap of $182.5 million. (more)

— Dan Graziano (@DanGrazianoESPN) May 26, 2021

Big salary cap news

Four teams currently project to have more active cap spending than the $208.2M ceiling:

Packers
Cowboys
Rams
Saints

A 14% increase would be more than double the average increase from 2013-2020 https://t.co/eY7dH3IEja

— Brad Spielberger (@PFF_Brad) May 26, 2021

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s...-to-hit-208m-in-2022