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Waldo's formula: http://www.footballsfuture.com...wtopic.php?t=439601=
(he hit the homerun on CMIII didn't he and comon Brad Jones- get over that injury bug, we know you've got it in ya)

Applying Waldo's formula on the 2012 draft crop: https://docs.google.com/spread...kk2Sm1UTlh6Zmc&pli=1

So, Jake Bequette is the obvious animal this year. Then it's Melvin Ingram and Bruce Irvin. Kick butt, TT!!!!!!! (Don't forget Jack Crawford with a twitch of 0.95 and 274 lbs- that's a lot of mean twitch we'd have on the other side of CMIII).
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I thought it was a pretty interesting read. Looks like a couple of good metrics for predicting NFL success.

If the correlations hold true for the 2012 class, it looks like these would be the guys to take:

Jake Bequette/Arkansas
Melvin Ingram/South Carolina
Bruce Irvin/West Virginia
Nick Perry/Southern California
Louis Nzegwu/Wisconsin

And these would be the guys to avoid:

Derrick Shelby/Utah
Justin Francis/Rutgers
Jacquies Smith/Missouri
Scott Solomon/Rice
Whitney Mercilus/Illinois
Jonathan Massaquoi/Troy

Don't really get why Francis was included on the list as I can't see any team looking at him as a 3-4 OLB. He's about the right size but the guy was a DT in college...may project inside but don't see him lining up as a 3-4 OLB in the NFL.

Irvin is a guy that I find really interesting. Could be the best upfield rusher in the draft, but I really question if he'll be able to do anything else. I could see Ted being in love with the guy's ability, but would he be versatile enough to fit in the Packer's defense? Big, big question mark in my book. This guy's metrics has Irvin as being a really safe pick...but I think he'd be a risky pick for Green Bay. If he was in Freeney's role with the Colts...I think that's the spot for this guy.

I'm totally on-board with Bequette though. Saw Arkansas play several times this year and the guy is definitely under-rated. But he has little hands...Sherman would have never considered drafting him.
quote:
Originally posted by PackerJoe:
But he has little hands...Sherman would have never considered drafting him.


That right there means Ted should trade up to get him if necessary.

I really don't see Nzegwu being a playmaking pass rusher type in the NFL, although he did play with his hand down at UW and was a decent run defender despite being outweighed by 75 pounds every week. I don't remember many guys who weren't playmakers in college suddenly becoming one at the next level. He'd be worth one of Ted's 123 7th rounders I guess.
I agree, don't see Nzegwu being a major force in the NFL either but who knows?

One guy that wasn't an impact player in college that did become one in the NFL was Clay Matthews. Matthews had 5.5 sacks in his entire college career. Of course that had everything to do with being stuck at the wrong position in the wrong defense when he got a chance to start. But maybe the same thing happened with Nzegwu?
It was an interesting read, but I think it's trying to make building a model rocket in to rocket science. It's been talked about with Matthews and others (even by some on the Packers staff IIRC) that the 3-cone drill is the important ones for discerning if a guy has the quickness/athleticism to excel as a rush 'backer and if they measure up in that and on game tape you can grade them better as they don't get to run in a straight line, etc.

Using that Irvin is still the tops, numbers-wise, but followed pretty closely by Melvin Ingram, who has the tape also, and likely is a top-10 pick when those are combined. That would also show Vinnie Curry is a better prospect than the 40-time scaring bloggers/columnists said would really hurt him. It also shows that Nzegwu would be a good flier pick later as he has the athleticism.

Also, look at Ricky Elmore last year. His numbers were good enough under the formula to put him in the moderate-to-low-risk ranking yet his 3-cone would be in the bottom-5 if he were coming out this year.
Last edited by Herschel
There's many intangibles and tangibles that are part of the equation besides workout metrics. Things like Wonderlic, injury, drug, arrest history, team leadership, family, college scheme.

And you have to decide what weight to give to the workout metrics. exponential power, reps, twitch, and 3 cone are what that formula thinks are most important.

Nick Perry is off the chart in exponential power with inline twitch. He won't be there when we draft. Melvin Ingram will be gone.

By his own admission, Bruce Irvin quit high school to sell drugs. Got his GED, JUCO then WVA. TT might not like the background but that guys a player if he's got something between the ears.

I just think some really intriguing OLBs are going to drop to us at 28. And stud D might also be BPA and just what we need in this draft.
Irvin has a lot of great physical qualities, but I worry about the intangibles with him. Does he have that endless motor? The chip on shoulder? The passion and desire? I think those qualities that Clay Matthews possesses were just as important to Thompson as his physical skills. Irvin strikes me as the kind of developmental player you take in round 4, that is available in round 4 because he's not physically ready to play from day 1.

I look at Andre Branch's numbers and they're pretty similar to Clay Matthews and physically I think he could step in on day 1. He has outstanding explosion and speed off the edge and with a little coaching from KG I think he could be elite.
There's so much to digest on something as crucial as high draft picks to resurrect last year's pitiful D that all I can say is Thank You Lordy TT is on our side.

(The wild card is KG's opinion. Maybe this offseason Zombo's kicking butt- he truly is one tough guy. And he's got the chip on his shoulder as an undrafted FA. Maybe Brad Jones hit the weight room. Maybe a miracle happened and Waldon can be consistent. Glad KG's on our side too.)

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