they're saying Green Bay has a 6% chance of winning the SB and Minnesota has a 4% chance
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That reminds me...
The 506 maps are up.
Packer predictions/odds seem reasonable. Surprised a bit by the Broncos love.
Percents? Who gives percents? This is America, give me the odds!
Learn what ELO is all about and then you'll understand these rankings, its based on the scores of the 2015 games.
Here's the 2015 rankings from 538 and you'll note the eventual SB winning denvers were also at 6 % to start the year
Arpad Elo probably would have suggested you need a minimum of 20 games before you have a stable rating. And the rating system probably works better in an endeavor where draws are more common than the NFL.
Interesting that the only game they don't have the Packers favored in is week two in Minnesota.
bvan posted:That reminds me...
The 506 maps are up.
In Wiscosota for a couple a months. Again with the damn Vajeen map.
Kansas City? LOLOLOLOLOL
Kansas City? BWAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Stats. Can never total the human element of the game.
This reminds of a horrible segment that was on the NFL Network season preview last night. Some broad attempted to explain advanced metrics by comparing it to sweater shopping complete with graphics and Mooch wearing an ugly sweater.
At no point did tthe analogy make any sense. It might have been the worst 5 minutes in TV history.
BrainDed posted:This reminds of a horrible segment that was on the NFL Network season preview last night. Some broad attempted to explain advanced metrics by comparing it to sweater shopping complete with graphics and Mooch wearing an ugly sweater.
At no point did tthe analogy make any sense. It might have been the worst 5 minutes in TV history.
Some broad what?
Of course the Vikings have good odds, they only have to play 12 games!
Henry posted:bvan posted:That reminds me...
The 506 maps are up.In Wiscosota for a couple a months. Again with the damn Vajeen map.
Bummer!
Looking good for me in AZ.
WK 3 against Detroit remains to be seen.
Interesting that the Vikings have become Oklahoma's team with Peterson and Bradford in the backfield.
Like the addition of the college info on the 506.
It only matters who actually wins the SB. Not who is predicted to win it. Strange things happen over the course of the year.
Really...no under the radar.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/n...s-your-wake-up-call/
BTW, I think we win week 1.
Hungry5 posted:BrainDed posted:This reminds of a horrible segment that was on the NFL Network season preview last night. Some broad attempted to explain advanced metrics by comparing it to sweater shopping complete with graphics and Mooch wearing an ugly sweater.
At no point did tthe analogy make any sense. It might have been the worst 5 minutes in TV history.
Some broad what?
Phyllis Schlaffy.
ELO is about mixing rock and orchestra music
and lights, don't forget the lights
How many drunk Irish guys in this prediction?
My last 538 projection, I promise.......and they're just the NFC North stats. 
Just an update..... now that the season is a quarter finished.....
http://projects.fivethirtyeigh...ions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
they've got the queens as 15% favs to win SB and GBP at 6% AND I know it is still early.
Seems about right right now. We've got work to do.
Pats at 8% to win the super bowl? eight?
Id take them 50/50 vs the field
WolfPack posted:Pats at 8% to win the super bowl? eight?
Id take them 50/50 vs the field
I don't know about vs. the field, but if I was in the habit of betting (which I'm not) I think I'd put a lot of money on them at essentially 12/1. Their division is terrible - and Buffalo is at 3-2 and only beat them because they got to play Brissett. If they can keep Gronk and Brady healthy, their in great shape. Gronk and Martellus Bennett at TE are going to be really difficult to cover in 2 TE sets.