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ChilliJon posted:

From Elisha Twerski....

Ten QB's in NFL history have thrown 300 or more TD passes. Aaron will be the 11th (has has 297).

However, Aaron will be the first QB to reach 300 TD's before throwing 100 INT's.  When Tom Brady reached 300 TD's he only had 115 INT's. Easily the best ratio of all the QB's that got to 300. 

It's actually not out of the question Aaron might reach 400 TD's before he throws 100 INT's. That's becasue Aaron has only thrown 72 INT's in his career. More than 40 fewer than Brady when he reached 300. 

6th on the list my ass.

In the follow up tweets somebody said something about doing that with almost 400 less pass attempts as well.  Is that right?, surely his INT numbers would reflect that but still to have that many TDs in that few attempts, holy moly.

I hear what you're saying, MichiganJoe.   I'm sure the Dolphins are kicking themselves for never providing Marino with the roster (coaching?)  to win a Super Bowl, too.    That will always sting.    So does Favre only has one ring with the Packers.

AR ?  We still have time and we are still always in the hunt at least.  So, let's enjoy these years with AR and hopefully everything aligns right and THIS IS THE YEAR!

Interesting commentary from MMQB:  


 "I think Aaron Rodgers is still the most difficult quarterback in football to reconcile. I was watching film the other night with one of my research guys, Allan Uy. What kept standing out was how often Rodgers left wide open receivers on the field. And these weren’t receivers who got open just because Rodgers extended the play. They got open within the context of the play’s design. And they were getting open because the play call was beating the coverage concept. Which means that Rodgers, reading the coverage, should have anticipated them being open. Rodgers leaves throws on the field almost every game. Other players who do this tend to be backups or fall out of the league (see Kaepernick, Colin; or Griffin, Robert). The difference? Rodgers still makes plays, even on the snaps where he misses plays. He is a unique talent and an impossible QB to classify."

https://www.si.com/mmqb/2017/0...g-qb-nfl-andy-benoit

ammo posted:
SanDiegoPackFan posted:

    So does Favre only has one ring with the Packers.

 

The blame for TOG only winning one ring rests solely on TOG.  

Not sure I agree. I am pretty certain he did not mak the decision to "let them score" . The packers should have won that game going away, but after repeating I decided that the Broncos were much better than they were given credit for. Cheating the cap or not, that was a good team.

Every generation, it seems the previous generation's "star" QBs fade from memory. 
In the 60's, as we learned about Starr, Unitas, and others, the Norm Van Brocklin and Otto Graham-era players were being forgotten.
In the 70's, as Bradshaw, Staubach, and others developed, Starr/Unitas-era players were being forgotten.

So forth and so on, until we get to more current times, and young writers of today can't go back any further than the 1980's; Marino, Montana, Elway, and Jim Kelly are a stretch for them to recall, much less consider. So they jump into the 90's and think of Favre , Aikman, and Young, quickly reach the 2000's to think of Manning, Brady, and Rodgers.
So they tend to start from there and work backwards until they've reached whatever criteria they imposed on themselves.

slowmo posted:

Interesting commentary from MMQB:  


 "What kept standing out was how often Rodgers left wide open receivers on the field. And these weren’t receivers who got open just because Rodgers extended the play. They got open within the context of the play’s design. And they were getting open because the play call was beating the coverage concept. Which means that Rodgers, reading the coverage, should have anticipated them being open."

https://www.si.com/mmqb/2017/0...g-qb-nfl-andy-benoit

So you're telling me in the passing game wastelands of 2015 that our WR's were getting open and AR was missing them?  I don't know if Benoit was referencing AR's career in general, just 2016 or something in between.  In any case I would love to hear AR's explanation of why he operates like this.  Can't fault him, whatever he's doing works pretty well.  But surely there is a mechanism behind it.  Always looking for a bigger play? 

Yup, that's what we all said at the start of last year: trying to make the big downfield play. Once he started throwing earlier when guys broke open the first time, his play improved immensely and then the big play was there later. Frequently Rodgers would hold the ball while his receiver was open in the first window in hopes that it would still be there in the second window downfield. But then that would not be there and Rodgers was forced to improvise by that time. When he stopped doing that and taking "what the defense gave," everything started to click.

And how exactly do they know Rodgers completed passes outside of the play design? My recollection from interviews is that the receivers still run specified routes during scramble drill, he's not playing street ball and throwing to whoever. It's more likely he saw something on film that led him to believe he could get more out of a scramble drill than the "designed play", as they put it, against that specific defense. Against some defenses he runs a really sharp timing offense (Seattle and New England), against more undisciplined defenses (Chicago, NYG) I think he tends to move around more. 

phaedrus posted:

That observation of Rodgers, if correct, is compelling.  I'm not going to make any excuses for it.  Leaving wide open receivers in the hope of a big play?

It doesn't say whether he completed the play or not, so is it really a negative that he passed on an easy 10 yard completion to Cobb even though he completed a 20 yarder to Jordy? Their point was, I believe, that Rodgers is passing up sure thing completions, as the play is designed, in favor of bigger plays that may or may not be scripted (I believe they are). 

The big takeaway for me was that McCarthy is actually running scripted plays that are getting receivers open. That was the debate during the 4 game skid last season, is it Rodgers not getting the ball to open guys or is McCarthy not scheming to get the WRs open? Sounds like, based on this analysis (whatever it's worth), that receivers were actually getting open per the script and defenses hadn't figured out McCarthy's scheme. That's good news heading into this season, unless teams have no figured out the scheme McCarthy adjusted to. We know they've figured out Crap Modes simultaneously complex-for-our-guys-yet-simple-for-other-teams defense, that's a given. 

Last edited by Grave Digger

I would argue there were two phases to Aaron Rodgers. In games up the middle of 2010, here's his numbers. I took out the games where he got hurt (2010 Detroit and 2013 Chicago) and missed more than half the game.

39 games started and finished:

21 Wins, 18 Losses, 71 TDs, 30 Ints.

He was a very good NFL QB with flashes of brilliance (2009 playoffs)

Since the middle of 2010:

94 games started and finished:

69 Wins, 25 Losses. 226 TDs, 42 Ints.

If he's missing wide open guys constantly and hurting the team, what is Benoit arguing his stats should be? Right now, his W-L percentage post mid-2010 comes out to about 12-4 per full year with 38 TDs and 7 TDs. If Benoit's right, then all of those should be much better? Aaron Rodgers not making the correct reads is holding this team back from being even better?

 

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