Boston Celtics 2024-25

I mean, Boston took 56 threes and only shot 25%.  When you shoot the volume of long range shots and are basically one dimensional offensively that off shooting night will happen from time to time.

What should concern Boston is they got killed on the glass late in the game, and lost handily despite making almost 20 FTs.  I also don’t think they played good defense, which is interesting, because they have this built in narrative that they are a great defensive team.

I’ll give Boston their flowers but anyone that thinks this squad is the mid to late 90s Bulls is flat out wrong.   The way to beat that team is to keep it close and pull it out at the end.  Other than Brown there isn’t a single person on that roster that plays with a killer instinct.   Their flaws usually get hidden by gaudy shooting performances.

The other problem that may develop in Boston is that Jrue Holiday looks like he's really regressing on the offensive end. He gets a lot of open looks as their 4th or 5th option and he's still only shooting 43.8% from the floor and 32.3% from three this year. His defense is still outstanding, but we all know how he got lit up by Jimmy Butler in his last playoff series as a Buck, and his defense has dropped from an all-time great level to merely elite.

That's the problem the Bucks faced when they traded Jrue for Dame. Holiday was maybe going to be an offensive plus for another year or two. 105 million for the next three years for Jrue is going to be an albatross of a contract. He still makes sense for Boston because he's the 5th option, but he would have been a disaster for the Bucks as the 3rd option (or the second when Middleton sits).

Boston still is a clear favorite in the East, but Jrue will be 35 by the time the Finals come around and Horford will be 38. Porzingis has only played over 60 games once in the last 8 years. Winning fixes a lot of things, but the relationship between Brown and Tatum has always been rumored to be a bit dicey.

You can only beat who you play, but they may have had the easiest path to the finals in NBA history last year due to injuries on other teams. They got to play the Heat without Jimmy Butler, the Cavaliers without Donavan Mitchell, and the Pacers without Haliburton. The Knicks lost Brunson in their series with the Pacers and Bucks lost Giannis and Dame in their series with the Pacers.

Then, in the Finals they got to play a Mavs team that was a perfect matchup for them. The Mavs had two wing scorers and almost nothing else and Jrue, White, Brown, and Tatum are all good wing defenders.

They never had to go more than 5 games in any series, and they never had to see how Horford would have held up over a 7 game series against an elite big guy - Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, AD, even KAT.

Giannis is gonna take that old man Horford to the woodshed if they meet in the playoffs this year.

That’s a bad loss for Boston

The Celtics are now 9-8 in their last 17 games with everyone available.

Jrue is really struggling. Since they played the Bucks on November 10th, Jrue is 41 for his last 141 from the three point line (29%).

He is still a good fit with the Celtics, but he'd be a complete offensive liability on a team where he needed to score and he's owed 105 million over the next 3 years (and he turns 35 during this year's playoffs).

The Celtics had a great year last year, but they benefitted from basically every other team in the East having at least one star player injured during the playoffs last year (Giannis, Butler, Dame, Haliburton, Embiid, Brunson, Mitchell).

Horford, Holiday, and Porzingis are all either old or fragile and their payroll/cap situation is worse than the Bucks in future years. How long until the media starts clamoring for Tatum to move on so he can win more titles? It took only 2 years for that to happen with Giannis.

I also don’t think you can underestimate the post title hangover that inevitability seems to happen.  

Boston is still a very good team and Holiday was a big part of their success but much like 180 year old Al Horford I think most people are waiting for the other shoe to drop.  That being Jrue’s shooting percentage and Horford breaking or wearing down physically.  

The salary cap issues are also eventually going to catch up with them.

@Tschmack posted:

I also don’t think you can underestimate the post title hangover that inevitability seems to happen.  

Boston is still a very good team and Holiday was a big part of their success but much like 180 year old Al Horford I think most people are waiting for the other shoe to drop.  That being Jrue’s shooting percentage and Horford breaking or wearing down physically.  

The salary cap issues are also eventually going to catch up with them.

Everything went right for them last year. They haven't even had to weather a major injury this year other than Porzingis and their relatively mediocre record the past few weeks coincides with when he came back.

As much as it sucked to see Jrue win a title in Boston, even if the Bucks don't get beyond the second round of the playoffs, the Lillard trade was the right move. Could you imagine the Bucks right now if they had both Middleton and Jrue signed for 70 million total? Giannis would have to average 45 for them to have a chance most nights. Middleton will probably have value longer than Jrue, because he'll always be able to shoot. Jrue was always more of a volume scorer than a shooter, and when his athleticism goes, his defense will too. If all the Celtics are healthy, he can basically be PJ Tucker on steroids for them and it's still a good fit. If you need him to score 20+ to win, you are not going to win consistently (which is exactly what happened to the Bucks in the playoffs in 2022 and 2023 when Middleton and then Giannis had to miss time).

I think the difference is Tucker wasn’t on the hook financially for 35M+  for multiple years.  Jrue is a better offensive player (still) but that could very well turn into a Bradley Beal type contract for them.  

I also agree that there was no way Milwaukee could extend him so using that asset to trade for Lillard was still the right move.  It may not work out but it never was going to work out with a 35 year old Holiday.  

Ironically, neither Milwaukee or Boston probably win their titles without him (Holiday) but for those two years they probably got the best version of him.  Other years?  Not so much.  

It’s kind of funny right now very few people are talking about the Celtics and honestly unless they get better I don’t even see them getting out of the East much less going back to back.  Bill Simmons (one of the biggest Boston homers out there) basically said he doesn’t want to see Milwaukee in the playoffs and if the Bucks were to get Butler without giving up Dame the Celtics would likely shit their pants.  No one in Boston would want to face that lineup.  

@Tschmack posted:

I think the difference is Tucker wasn’t on the hook financially for 35M+  for multiple years.  Jrue is a better offensive player (still) but that could very well turn into a Bradley Beal type contract for them.  

I also agree that there was no way Milwaukee could extend him so using that asset to trade for Lillard was still the right move.  It may not work out but it never was going to work out with a 35 year old Holiday.  

Ironically, neither Milwaukee or Boston probably win their titles without him (Holiday) but for those two years they probably got the best version of him.  Other years?  Not so much.  

It’s kind of funny right now very few people are talking about the Celtics and honestly unless they get better I don’t even see them getting out of the East much less going back to back.  Bill Simmons (one of the biggest Boston homers out there) basically said he doesn’t want to see Milwaukee in the playoffs and if the Bucks were to get Butler without giving up Dame the Celtics would likely shit their pants.  No one in Boston would want to face that lineup.  

I want no part of Jimmy Butler on the Bucks. The guy is a locker room cancer and isn't a good match playing with Giannis because he's not a good 3 point shooter.

This article posted today on ESPN.com. Miami clearly is done for the year.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story...-nba-feud-miami-heat

Whatever it takes to get a 2nd Chip with Giannis. 6 month rental for Butler? Fine....long term?? Not an effing chance.

Whatever it takes.

Happy we got 1 chip! Plus the NBA Cup (2 chips?)

One

Rumors are now very strong that the Bucks are involved with the Suns, Heat, and at least one more team on a deal that may land Bradley Beal in Milwaukee. Middleton and probably others would head out.

I hate this deal. Bradley Beal is just like Dame, except not quite as good. Great shooter. Can't guard anyone. If you put Dame and Beal in a backcourt you might need to average 140 points on offense to win.

The problem I see is less about adding Beal but to make this all work Milwaukee has to give up at least 3 players if not 4 and likely only getting back (1) Beal in return.  

Now, the one thing, and perhaps the only thing that’s intriguing is if Milwaukee could net at least 2 of the 3 Phoenix 1s acquired from Utah plus get under the 2nd apron there’s a business case to be made for why you do it.  But let’s be clear this trade doesn’t make them better.  If you exchange Zach LaVine instead of Beal that’s a bit more appealing but even then not ideal.  

The other thing to consider is both Phoenix and Milwaukee have to make a “pre move” to dump salary to even make a deal happen.  So in the case of Milwaukee, that’s probably Pat C but it depletes your overall roster in the aggregate.  If 4 guys leave and you get 1 back you need to sign 2 players.  One is probably Rollins and hope there’s a guy in the buyout market but that’s a crapshoot IMO.  

@Tschmack posted:

The problem I see is less about adding Beal but to make this all work Milwaukee has to give up at least 3 players if not 4 and likely only getting back (1) Beal in return.  

Now, the one thing, and perhaps the only thing that’s intriguing is if Milwaukee could net at least 2 of the 3 Phoenix 1s acquired from Utah plus get under the 2nd apron there’s a business case to be made for why you do it.  But let’s be clear this trade doesn’t make them better.  If you exchange Zach LaVine instead of Beal that’s a bit more appealing but even then not ideal.  

The other thing to consider is both Phoenix and Milwaukee have to make a “pre move” to dump salary to even make a deal happen.  So in the case of Milwaukee, that’s probably Pat C but it depletes your overall roster in the aggregate.  If 4 guys leave and you get 1 back you need to sign 2 players.  One is probably Rollins and hope there’s a guy in the buyout market but that’s a crapshoot IMO.  

The deals I'm seeing almost always involve dumping Beauchamp and Connaughton somewhere to get under the tax apron to allow them to aggregate salaries to get someone with a higher salary back. Beauchamp doesn't play at all and Connaughton is a emergency fill in now, so those two roster spots don't matter. Where it gets tough is if they combine Middleton and Portis in a package going out to get LaVine or Beal. They have no other guys that can play the 5 position (not that Portis is a defensive stopper but he at least can rebound) other than Lopez and Giannis.

You'd end up with a closing lineup of Giannis, Dame, Beal/Lavine, Lopez, and AJ Green (with Trent and Jackson Jr. in the mix). That's three guys that can't switch on the perimeter (Lopez, Dame, and Beal/Lavine). That's a disaster on defense.

Trading Middleton for either Beal or Lavine isn't going to change the Bucks fortunes in the playoffs. Both of those guys need the ball in their hands to be effective and that's redundant with Dame in the half court. Even with the injuries, Middleton is still a better defender than either one of those guys.

I think the most likely move is that they move Portis for a defensive big or defensive 3 and D guy.

They are 6.5 million over the second apron. If they can get under that they can aggregate salaries going out to get a more expensive player (rather than just swap guys one for one).

Connaughton is certainly gone. They get under the second apron by moving his 9+ million salary. They may have to attach a second round pick to get someone to take him, but with the tax penalties it costs them about 30 million to keep him on the roster.

Once you move him, you can combine Portis (12.5 million) with Beauchamp (2.7 million) and trade for someone making up to 15 million. Robert Williams has been mentioned (12.5 million so you could just swap Portis).

The one move that isn't talked about that could happen (my guess only, not even any rumors is Lopez). The consideration is that Lopez has an expiring contract. You lose all that cap space if he leaves after the year with no way to replace it. With Embiid probably out of the picture for the playoffs, there is no ideal matchup for him in a post-season series in the East (maybe the Cavs, but that's it). He gets played off the court against the Knicks and Pacers, and unless you think he is a good matchup against Porzingis, can't play against the Celtics either. He's a very good matchup against Jokic or AD, so maybe some team in the West (OKC, Houston) would overpay for 3 months of him and give you something decent back. He's making 23 million. That probably costs them 50 million with the luxury taxes and, while he's a great regular season player and takes a lot of wear and tear off of Giannis, it's a lot for a guy that isn't a full time player in a lot of playoff matches.

Listened to 2 different sports talk radio today and both said the Bucks have no interest in Beal.  If they did he would already be here.