Breaking the NBA Talent Code

Music CityMember

Was listening to the Woj Pod with Malcolm Brogdon, and they talked about how he fell to the second round. He talked about the stigma around the Virginia program that it didn’t produce NBA talent, that the talent scouts working for NBA teams gravitate to the traditional programs.

But when I think about the Kentucky or Duke programs, clearly there’s a bunch of gaps in the success levels of these top tier programs and what they’re producing in the NBA.

So let’s look at a “top 20” as a sampling- recognizing that it is subjective, we’ll go by VOP:

1.	Nikola Jokić • DEN - Foreign	8.6
2.	Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL - Foreign	5.5
3.	Stephen Curry • GSW - Davidson	5.5
4.	Luka Dončić • DAL - Foreign	5.0
5.	Damian Lillard • POR - Weber St.	4.8
6.	Nikola Vučević • TOT - Foreign	4.2
7.	Jimmy Butler • MIA - Marquette	4.2
8.	Kawhi Leonard • LAC - San Diego St.	3.9
9.	Julius Randle • NYK - Kentucky	3.8
10.	Zion Williamson • NOP - Duke	3.8
11.	Chris Paul • PHO - Wake Forest	3.7
12.	Joel Embiid • PHI - Kansas	3.7
13.	Bam Adebayo • MIA - Kentucky	3.6
14.	LeBron James • LAL - High School	3.6
15.	Rudy Gobert • UTA - Foreign	3.6
16.	James Harden • TOT - Arizona State	3.5
17.	Kyrie Irving • BRK - Duke	3.5
18.	Domantas Sabonis • IND - Gonzaga	3.3
19.	Jayson Tatum • BOS - Duke	3.3
20.	Russell Westbrook • WAS - UCLA	3.2

8/26/2112:37 PM

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MichiganPacker2Member

If you look at the top 6, it's foreign players and guys that can shoot. Guys who can shoot well in college tend to get undervalued in the NBA draft. I think it's because coaches and GMs just assume they can "fix" things about a shot. It's also because many times it's justifiable to pass these guys up because often the same guys that can shoot are defensive liabilities (which Lillard still is). Interestingly, of the top 6 only Giannis is a great defensive player.

8/28/2110:52 AM

TschmackMember

Steph Curry was overlooked a lot like Aaron Rodgers was overlooked. Wasn’t an elite athlete and didn’t have prototypical size.

By the way, I’d have Kahwi higher than he is since he’s arguably the best 2 way player in the game.

Defense is so undervalued right now in the NBA but as we saw with the Bucks it was Holiday (among others) that put them over the top.

8/28/2112:36 PM

Music CityMember

I think the real story might be the way the traditional college powers are impacting the talent pool. There’s no correlation anymore. Cal or Coach K aren’t going to convince top AAU talent they have anything to offer one and dones, so things are certainly changing.

Might be why Baldwin is playing at UWM for his Dad- the gig is up for the college basketball power programs. And with more guys just playing overseas or with Academies

8/29/2110:59 AM

"We"-Ka-BongYou ungrateful biscuit eating son of a bitch

Now that players can make legitimate cash off their likeness, I see program in bigger cities having a greater advantage still.

8/29/211:07 PM

PackerHawkMember

Yep, top players can make more money going to college now for a year or two rather than playing overseas or spending some time in the G league.

8/29/211:53 PM

MichiganPacker2Member

It will be interesting to see how much the basketball players make relative to the football players. College basketball, even at the top schools, is a nice diversion a couple of times a week. Except for the NCAA tournament, most games aren't "events" like the football games are, especially in the South. At many of those schools, retired alums drive their souped-up RVs into town about 2-3 days before a game and park near the stadium. The highlight of the year for many of those alums is the 5-6 weekends when home games happen.

College football players at Bama, Auburn, Texas, OSU, Michigan, etc. are going to make money. I just don't see that for most of the basketball players.

8/29/212:10 PM

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