Bucks at Bulls, March 4th

@Cheezers posted:

Playing better now vs the top teams.  Looking forward to how good they can be when injured players start coming back.

If everyone is healthy, the playoff rotation will be

Giannis, Middleton, Lopez, G. Allen, and Holiday to start

Portis and Connaughton as your first two guys off the bench.

Matthews, George Hill, and Ibaka as your 8-10 guys.

That's a really deep lineup when 8 of those 10 guys are at least above average defenders (Portis and G. Allen are the only exceptions, and they aren't terrible).

Having J. Carter and Bembry as 11-12 means even more defense.

Nwora can sit and watch another year.

I read that Chicago is now 0-8 against the best teams in the East.   That sounds about right.  

The Bucks were +10 on the glass and that’s without Pat C and Lopez playing.  If they get healthy and Milwaukee gets to face Chicago I like the Bucks chances.

@Tschmack posted:

I read that Chicago is now 0-8 against the best teams in the East.   That sounds about right.  

The Bucks were +10 on the glass and that’s without Pat C and Lopez playing.  If they get healthy and Milwaukee gets to face Chicago I like the Bucks chances.

Tristan Thompson has about as much chance guarding Giannis effectively as most of the people on this board. And he's their best option.

Giannis went for 34-16-5 last night and he didn't even really play that well by his standards. According to the game score metric (which measures overall performance), it was his 21st best game of the year. His FT shooting was subpar last night.

Even if he hits FTs at his season average (about 14 for 19 instead of 10 for 19), his game score isn't even top 10 for the year. In a game where he went 34-16-5. That's insane.

@Tschmack posted:

I read that Chicago is now 0-8 against the best teams in the East.   That sounds about right.  

The Bucks were +10 on the glass and that’s without Pat C and Lopez playing.  If they get healthy and Milwaukee gets to face Chicago I like the Bucks chances.

Their interior defense is terrible. The have no rim protection and are going to get eaten alive by Embiid, Giannis, Adebayo, Durant, etc.

They have the record they do because Derozan and Lavine outscore everyone else. When you get into a playoff series (or a regular season game with a playoff atmosphere) and the game slows down to a half court game, things change dramatically for them. You saw that last night when Derozan went 11 for 30 against Holiday and Matthews. Those two are not going to outscore teams with defenders like Miami (Lowry, Butler, Tucker, Adebayo), Milwaukee (Holiday, Matthews, Giannis, Middleton), or Sixers (Thybulle, Maxey, Embiid) 4 out of 7 games. The Bulls actually have a good chance against the Nets because unless Simmons comes back healthy, the Nets don't have anyone to guard those two.

That’s the benefit of having a guy like Holiday on your team.  He just makes it so damn difficult on opposing guards.   While he may not be an All Star, his value is enhanced in the playoffs and I can guarantee you they don’t win the title last year without him.   He’s worth every penny they are paying him.

That’s where a team like Milwaukee has an advantage over just about every other team in the league.   Holiday and Giannis are elite defenders and they don’t need to be taken off the court because they can score and defend.   Middleton isn’t an elite defender, but he’s very respectable on that end as well.  

Lavine and Derozan are really good scorers but they aren’t stopping anyone.  Caruso is very good but he’s one guy and the Bulls have no one that can even slow down Giannis.  If Lopez is in the mix it’s a huge mismatch.  

Philly and Miami present the biggest threats but the Bucks still match up extremely well because just about everyone that will get minutes can at least play some defense and/or rebound.  Allen is the one exception.  Portis is certainly more an offensive threat but he’s not complete liability on D.

@Tschmack posted:

That’s the benefit of having a guy like Holiday on your team.  He just makes it so damn difficult on opposing guards.   While he may not be an All Star, his value is enhanced in the playoffs and I can guarantee you they don’t win the title last year without him.   He’s worth every penny they are paying him.

I'd argue that among the NBA types that know the most (GMs, analytics people, etc.), Holiday is considered a top 10 guard. It's just that the all-star teams prioritize offensive "flash" way too much.

He may be the best defensive guard in the league. He's an all-time great at that end. The NBA Finals completely turned around when the Bucks put him on Chris Paul. This meant that Booker went off after they moved Holiday off of him, but Holiday made Chris Paul just an average PG. The closest parallel I can think of is the 1991 NBA Finals when the Lakers beat the Bulls in Game 1 and then the series turned when the Bulls put Scottie Pippen on Magic. Holiday can effectively guard Durant as well as anyone. He's a HOF level defensive guy, and that's not up for debate.

Holiday's 2 pt/3 pt shooting splits this year are 51/42. He completely abuses smaller guards on offense, but those possessions end in layups off the backboard or 6 foot jumpers, not ESPN highlight dunks.

So, who made the all-star team in the East ahead of him this year?

Darius Garland - 48/39. He's below Holiday on shooting splits and isn't anywhere near as good a defender.

Lamelo Ball - 42/37. The Hornets take him out at the end of games on defense-only possessions.

LaVine - 48/40. Good luck with him playing defense in a playoff series.

VanVleet - 42/40. Good on-ball defense, but can't guard bigger guys.

Trae Young - 46/38. One of the worst defensive players in the league.

Harden - 43/34. Can be effective defender when he tries, but that's hit or miss.

DeRozan - 51/36. Average defender.

All 7 guys selected ahead of him this year are shooting worse from the field than him. None is even in the same galaxy of him as a defender.

I wouldn't trade Holiday for any of these 7 guys (in the East, only Harden and Irving probably have overall more talent in the backcourt, but they are both coach killers).

The people that watch all-star games tune in to see alley-oop dunks, not boring layups and 6 foot pull-ups

This year was probably between Middleton and him because even as defending champs and being in the top 3-4 teams when they picked the teams, there was no way a small market team like the Bucks were getting 3 all-star selections. Middleton is the same type of "boring" player without highlight dunks. It's more important to market Trae Young or LaVine averaging a lot of points on high volume shooting on 30 foot 3 pointers (Young) or windmill dunks (LaVIne) than complete basketball players.

Excellent post

Middleton’s defense gets overlooked because Giannis and Holiday might be the best defenders at their positions in the league.  Still, I’d argue KM is a well above average defender.    

That’s the thing - at the end of games you don’t have to take any of them out because they can hit shots, draw fouls, defend and rebound.   And if Giannis is hitting his FTs they have 3 guys that can make those too.

So that’s the dilemma if you are a team facing Milwaukee.  You have to hope you are on fire from 3 and hope the Bucks are off or in foul trouble.   Then there’s the confidence (now) knowing you can win in key moments in playoff games.  The Bucks have that covered as well.

That’s why I’m not all that concerned about this team.  Philly has question marks.  Can Embiid stay healthy?  Can Harden rise above his playoff chokes?  How about Miami.  They have a good overall team, but will the motivated Jimmy Butler show up?  Will Herro and Robinson continue scoring at this clip?