Bucks at Cavs, November 4th (No Giannis)

Bucks have thrown three passes away in the first few minutes that look like something you'd see in a rec league when guys have never played together. They've given up 17 points in 4 minutes.

Cavs only up 35-31 at the end of 1 as they played with their food a bit.

Andre Jackson Jr. showing that Doc might be right about one thing - that Andre Jackson Jr. isn't a rotation caliber NBA player. Just some brutal plays in extended minutes tonight.

I hesitate to say this is rock bottom because we don't know what trades might be happening later this year. The Cavs are good, but giving up 73 points on 65% shooting in the first half has to be getting close to that .

Gary Trent Jr. is 1 for his last 21 from three.

Lopez is 3 for his last 16 from three.

Cavs sleep walk through the 3rd and the Bucks lead 91-89 after three.

I would guess the Cavs will wake up and put the gas pedal down in the 4th.

Connaughton, Jackson Jr., Rollins, Barry, and Portis to start the 4th in a close game.

That's a lineup I would never thought I'd see (nor should you ever see).

The Bucks defense has not been very good tonight, but their offense is much more fluent.

Maybe Giannis' allergy to setting screens or moving without the ball is holding them back a bit?

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Connaughton, Jackson Jr., Rollins, Barry, and Portis to start the 4th in a close game.

That's a lineup I would never thought I'd see (nor should you ever see).

And somehow this lineup is now ahead 101-94.

Cavs coming back when Lillard and Lopez came back in. The Bucks offense stagnated at the same time.

Lead down to 2.

And then Lillard with another bad turnover and it's tied.

Lillard has been absolutely terrible since checking in here in the 4th. Cavs have gone on a 10-0 run. Also, Lillard can't guard anyone.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Lillard has been absolutely terrible since checking in here in the 4th. Cavs have gone on a 10-0 run. Also, Lillard can't guard anyone.

And now he turns it on the last two possessions on offense.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

And now he turns it on the last two possessions on offense.

And then a terrible over and back violation follows that. Dumb, dumb.

Dame Lillard with a pathetic last minute. Losing basketball. Over and back violation followed by an air ball three.

Lillard has scored 36 and the opposing point guard (Garland) has gone for 39.

That's Lillard in a nutshell.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Dame Lillard with a pathetic last minute. Losing basketball. Over and back violation followed by an air ball three.

And then Lillard tries to score over Jarrett Allen and gets a facial. Just pathetic basketball.

The Bucks are so bad I'm the only one watching.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

The Bucks are so bad I'm the only one watching.

I watched the first half.

Flipped it off and started watching politics 😭

Just checked the score. Game over Bucks outscored by 4 in the 4th quarter and lose by 2.

I was watching. I just didn't want to admit it. lol Lillard with 3 turnovers in the first quarter alone. I quit watching with 2 minutes left in the game because I knew they would find a way to piss the game away.

Giannis sits out.  Will he be traded tomorrow?

This team has got losing down to an art form.  They are literally inventing new ways to piss away games.  

1-6.  They could very well be 2-8 after 10 games.

I didn’t want to admit I was also wrong about Doc Rivers.  He might be an OK dude but he’s a fucking terrible coach.  

What network aired this game?

@mrtundra posted:

What network aired this game?

NBA TV.

@Tschmack posted:

Giannis sits out.  Will he be traded tomorrow?

This team has got losing down to an art form.  They are literally inventing new ways to piss away games.  

1-6.  They could very well be 2-8 after 10 games.

I didn’t want to admit I was also wrong about Doc Rivers.  He might be an OK dude but he’s a fucking terrible coach.  

Given who was sitting out, this was their best game of the year. Somewhat ironically, the biggest concern I had after watching was how good the bench units looked. You may think that's an odd thing to be concerned about, but they actually run an offense with a lot of motion and cutting. All 5 guys are involved. On defense, some of those guys have limitations, but at least they fight around screens and are young and athletic enough to try to make up for the mistakes they make. They (Jackson Jr., Barry, Rollins, even Connaughton) all looked better than Trent Jr., Delon Wright, or Taurean Prince last night. It was really disconcerting to see how much better Connaughton and Jackson Jr. looked playing with the deep bench guys than with the starters. They are actually involved in the game on offense instead of standing around.

When the starters and Portis are playing, the Bucks are so stagnant. Giannis drives and Eurosteps. Dame gets two guys setting picks right over halfcourt and comes off and looks to shoot. Or Portis gets a favorable matchup on the block, so they throw it to him and he dribbles and isos (which is exactly what Middleton does when he plays). Everyone else stands around and watches because there is really nothing else for them to do except stand behind the 3-point line and wait. There is no synergy amongst their players at all, especially between Giannis and Dame. On paper, a two man game with them should be unstoppable, but Dame is much better in a two man game with Lopez and Giannis is much better in a two man game with Middleton. Giannis is not very good at setting screens. Or more accurately, he's not a very willing screen setter.

I think they have to move Giannis or Dame (hopefully Dame). As I've said before, the pairing could still work if one of them changed their game. Dame is not Steph Curry, but he's obviously a HOFer. Let Dame be Steph in this system and make Giannis be Draymond Green on steroids (if Middleton comes back he's a pretty good version of Klay). I would guess Giannis is not willing to do that at this point. He's gotten used to be a 30 point scorer, and I don't think he's going to be satisfied averaging 18-15-7 every night on fewer shots even if it is better for the team. In his mind (justifiably), they've won a title when he's been the only offensive focus.

The other way to fix this would be for Dame to become late-career Ray Allen. Move him around screens more off-the-ball and get the opposing defense moving around doing that to open things up for others. I don't Dame wants to give up averaging 25+ a game to get less shots and average 16 a game with higher efficiency.

I don't think you can build a competitor around Dame, so ideally you'd build around Giannis. If you can move Dame to someone who will give you decent value, you need to do it. You'd need a point guard back in his place, but maybe you can move Portis as well to reset things. Miami, the Lakers, or maybe the Spurs would have interest?

Or, we could just trade Doc Rivers to Phoenix for Mike Budenholzer.

IMO you can’t keep changing coaches every year, much less twice in one year.  I really don’t follow the NBA but why did Bud get canned?

I saw a crazy stat this morning.

Since 1970, 150 teams have started 1-6.  Only 12 of those teams made the playoffs.   5 of the 12 did so with a losing record and none of the 12 exceeded 47 wins.  

So, this doesn’t bode well for Milwaukee at all.  

It’s become painfully obvious that Dame and Giannis can’t coexist at the same time.  Both guys are at their best when they have the ball.  Giannis driving and Dame pulling up for a 3.  

It would seem to me that trading Lillard would be the best bet but maybe it’s trading Giannis instead.  He’s going to get you so much more back in return and for as good as 34 is I doubt he’s going to suddenly get better shooting the 3 or making FTs.  His game will not age well.  

Everyone knows Lillard is limited defensively and he isn’t the greatest passer.  But you saw what can happen (last night) when he’s the featured guy.  They practically stole a game on the road against a really good Cavs team.  

If you said the Bucks dealt 34 for two starters and let’s say 3 or 4 1st round picks that might be worth entertaining as an option.  

Let’s say Giannis to the Spurs for Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, and Jeremy Sochan and picks.

Or trade him to New Orleans for Ingram and Herbert Jones and a bunch of picks.  

@Pikes Peak posted:

IMO you can’t keep changing coaches every year, much less twice in one year.  I really don’t follow the NBA but why did Bud get canned?

They needed a scapegoat. He had a terrible last 5:02 seconds of the 2023 Heat playoff series, but other than that I would argue it wasn't his fault. The last 5:02 of Game 5 was terrible coaching. It was actually a total of 7 seconds at the end of regulation and in OT that Bud screwed up on.

The Bucks lead by 2 with less than 2 seconds left in regulation. On the inbounds play, the Heat subbed right as the play started to go smaller, putting in Duncan Robinson instead of Cody Zeller. Bud responded by subbing Lopez out. The Heat then threw a lob to Butler who scored at the rim. If Bud leaves Lopez in, they don't do the lob and the Heat are likely shooting a contested 3 for the win. There was still one second left, but Bud then inexplicably didn't call timeout to advance the ball to halfcourt (they had one left) and set up an OOBs play to try to get off a shot (Middleton looked at Bud to call timeout but Bud was in a daze). They went to OT and the Bucks were down 2 with 5 seconds left when Giannis got a rebound. The Bucks had timeouts left, but instead of calling timeout, the Bucks ended up going into a very disorganized offensive set and there season ended with Grayson Allen doing a Eurostep running shot that he didn't even get off until after the buzzer. It was one of the worst coaching performances you'll ever see. But even if they won, they were still down 3-2 with the next game in Miami.

In that series, Giannis got undercut by Kevin Love in Game 1 and had to sit out until Game 4. He wasn't 100%. Also, Bud's brother died in a car accident during that series, so he may not have been thinking completely straight in Games 4 and 5.

However, in terms of what went wrong for them to lose the series, Bud's Game 5 meltdown was quite a ways down the list. In my opinion, 4 even bigger reasons were the following:

1. Jimmy Butler completely and utterly abused Jrue Holiday. Jrue was completely helpless against him. In Game 4 with the Heat down 4 with 2 minutes left, Butler was clearly heard on tape telling Jrue that "I own your ass" and the proceeded to embarrass him. Jrue is supposedly the best perimeter defender in the NBA. It's not Bud's fault Butler turned him into Malik Beasley in that series. It was ugly and was probably the biggest reason Horst pulled the trigger on the Dame trade. Butler had 42 in game 4 and 56 in game 3. He shot 79 for 135 in the series. Holiday was on him for most of that time. Bud was criticized for not putting Giannis on him, but Giannis wasn't healthy even when he came back.

2. Giannis was hurt.

3. The Bucks lost in OT in Game 5. Giannis was 10 for 23 from the line.

4. The Bucks lost a 14 point lead 4th quarter lead in Game 4. Holiday was 2 for 11 from three in that game. Holiday also missed a FT with 2 seconds left in Game 5 in regulation that ultimately allowed Butler's lob to tie it. By any measure, except for the Game 2 victory, Holiday was absolutely terrible in that series.

Horst felt he had to do something after losing in the first round and after losing in the second round the year before (without Middleton). He fired Bud which was then questionable. He supposedly wanted Kenny Atkinson or Nick Nurse to be the coach, but rumors were that Giannis didn't want either and publicly said he wanted Adrian Griffin. Griffin was completely in over his head and they fired him even though he was 30-13 at the time. That 30-13 was misleading because it included 7 wins against teams that won 22 games or less last year (Pistons, Wizards, and Spurs).

He (or ownership) then panicked hired Rivers, who didn't have time to really implement anything (and then Giannis got hurt in Game 1 of the playoffs).

Now they are stuck with a worse coach than they had in Bud, with no team chemistry amongst the starters, and no real way to improve.

It's not a good situation. Some of it was looking for a scapegoat for the losses and some of it is that Giannis maybe isn't as easy a teammate/player to keep happy as his current image suggests (Favre/Rodgers syndrome)

Maybe a coach killer?  It seems he is the only constant thru the years.

@Pikes Peak posted:

Maybe a coach killer?  It seems he is the only constant thru the years.

He has a great story and seems to like Milwaukee, but whenever he threatens to leave they react. Sometimes it works (the Holiday trade). Other times it hasn't (firing Bud, the Lillard trade, hiring Griffin).

I don't trust Doc Rivers at all and I wish someone else was making the decisions, but if you remove emotion from the equation, it makes sense to trade Giannis now. He's turning 30 and his game is not likely to age well. He can't shoot and he's almost entirely dependent on his elite athleticism and physicality. Dwight Howard never handled the ball and wasn't the scorer that Giannis is, but in some ways he is a decent comp otherwise. Howard was one of the top 5 players in the NBA for about 8 years (his age 21-28 seasons). Howard was a 3-time defensive player of the year consistently averaged 20 and 14 for that 8 year period. He couldn't shoot and was a terrible FT shooter. Once he lost his explosiveness, he became Andre Drummond.

Giannis probably has another 2-3 years of being an elite player, but after that paying him 65-70 million is not going to be a winning proposition. If you can't shoot, you don't age well as a player.

However, the Bucks aren't likely to win another title in my lifetime once he's gone and I'd rather see him play out the string in Milwaukee on winning teams and hope lightning strikes again than trade him off and see him end his career somewhere else. I want him to be Milwaukee's Dirk Nowitzke, but it's not my money that is being used to pay gigantic luxury tax bills.

I’m definitely coming around on the idea of trading Giannis.   I think you have to be pragmatic about this, not unlike how GB handled Aaron Rodgers.  The difference is dealing Giannis now is more comparable to trading Rodgers in 2021, when he was still close to or performing at a high level.  

The fact of the matter is if guys like Rudy Gobert or Mikal Bridges can net you 4-5 1st round picks what would a guy like Giannis be worth?  At least that much and probably a good player or two.

I mentioned the Spurs because they have 4 1st rounders next year and several more through end of the decade.   If San Antonio said we’ll give you 3 of those 1s next year, the ATL 1st round pick swap in 2026, and an unprotected future 1st in like 2027 or 2028 plus Keldon Johnson I think you really have to think about pulling the trigger.   It would replenish basically most of their draft capital lost in the Holiday and Dame trades and Johnson is a really good (and cheap) young wing guy.  

I hate to say it, but I tend to agree that the Bucks likely need to be blown up which means saying goodbye to Giannis.  I’m not ready to give up yet, but wow, they look stunningly bad so far this year.

A lot of fans will revolt, but I think if the Bucks want to ever have a prayer of any sort of successful rebuild, it starts with trading Giannis while he still has excellent value.

Buy low sell high.