Bucks at Hawks, February 7th. Giannis out again

Bucks get run off the court now.

Giannis has to get off his ass and play. No excuses at this point.

Bucks have scored 6 points in the last 12 minutes.

Bucks got it back to 1, but then completely collapse. What a terrible loss. Dame has sucked. The defense has been pathetic and Giannis is sitting out with a sore calf.

Terrible loss. Bucks were up 21 at one point in the second half.

4 for 13 shooting from the new guy. Joy.

This isn’t a good team.  If the intent at the deadline was to clear up the cap and flexibility then mission accomplished.  But this looks like a squad that will lose in R1 of the playoffs yet again.

The Dame experiment has been a failure.  It’s not totally on him, but his half assing it through some of these games is unacceptable.  Kuzma is what he is.  Up and down.  And he’s your third option?

Might finally be time to blow it all up this offseason.  Can’t imagine Giannis will be OK with yet another early playoff exit.  

Horst has made mistakes, but it more that this is the way the NBA collective bargaining system works and when you aren't in NY, LA, or another big (or warm) market you can't get the marquee free agents to do there even if you clear the salary cap.

The Bucks won a title with 4 key players - Giannis, Middleton, Holiday, and Lopez. Remarkably, Lopez has stayed about the same and hasn't regressed much. But Middleton and Holiday are both shells of what they were. Holiday has been terrible this year and is having shoulder problems. He was already regressing last year, but was a great fit as the 5th option on the Celtics. He was basically a better version of PJ Tucker last year. Middleton is cooked.

Because the Bucks were over the salary cap, they could either let them go as free agents or resign them. They couldn't let them go and then use the same amount of cap money to try to sign a replacement. You'd be stuck with minimum salary guys as replacements and even if you kept your draft picks you'd be getting guys like Beauchamp, DDV, and Jackson Jr. as rotation guys.

The Lillard trade was still the right move - they had to get off that Holiday contract. Lillard gives them a puncher's chance. Holiday was abused by Jimmy Butler in his last playoff series and, with the exception of one 5 minute stretch against the Nets in Game 7, really struggled on offense in the playoffs as a first or second option.

Kuzma's not a bad player. His contract is reasonable for what he is. He's a Bobby Portis, KCP, Bruce Brown type guy (some outstanding skills coupled with obvious limitations in other areas). Obviously nowhere near a max guy, but a little better than a mid-level exception. He's a better version of what Connaughton was in the 2021 title run. That's what he was for the Lakers in 2020.

If the Bucks were the Lakers, Knicks, Heat, Warriors, Clippers, Nets, etc. they'd clear cap space this summer by not resigning Lopez and Portis (or do sign and trades for something), get close to being under the cap and then try to get a good free agent to go there and use their MLE for another quality player. But those "good" free agent guys don't go to Milwaukee.

Denver is already where the Bucks are (the roster aging out and expensive role players being traded off). The Mavs are now in the same boat from their own stupidity (aging stars with no way to get better). Boston will be there soon (Holiday, Porzingis, and Horford are not going to hold up).

Yup, this is why GM’s and owners need to be proactive, look ahead, take chances etc.  It isn’t easy, there will be misses but sitting pat will not cut it.  

No one could have predicted Middleton to get hurt in 2022 and he’s not been the same player since.  So I get it when Dame laments about what could have been with the Big 3.  They probably go back to back in 2022 and then we are having an entirely different conversation.  

The reality is the window has closed for Milwaukee.  Kuzma is a good bridge player, but he’s not a guy you build your team around.   Portis is decent at 12M, but less at 20-25M.  Lopez could fall off at any point now.  And it’s not like Giannis and Dame are getting any younger.  

Giannis would still command a premium on the trade market.  He alone would allow you to restock your draft capital and if you moved Dame as well my guess is they could get a couple of picks for him as well.  

@Tschmack posted:

No one could have predicted Middleton to get hurt in 2022 and he’s not been the same player since.  So I get it when Dame laments about what could have been with the Big 3.  They probably go back to back in 2022 and then we are having an entirely different conversation.  

The reality is the window has closed for Milwaukee.  Kuzma is a good bridge player, but he’s not a guy you build your team around.   Portis is decent at 12M, but less at 20-25M.  Lopez could fall off at any point now.  And it’s not like Giannis and Dame are getting any younger.  

Giannis would still command a premium on the trade market.  He alone would allow you to restock your draft capital and if you moved Dame as well my guess is they could get a couple of picks for him as well.  

If you moved Giannis and Dame for draft picks, you'd end up with a lottery team for the next 3-4 years minimum. And you'd probably spend the next 10 years (at least) trying to find someone as good as Dame out of those lottery picks, let alone someone anywhere near as good as Giannis. The window is very narrow right now, but it's not completely closed. Trade Giannis and the window is going to be nailed shut for another decade unless you win the lottery during a year that a Wembanyama type comes out. There have been maybe 8-10 of those cases in history where the obvious #1 pick is going to transform your whole team.  Normally, you end up with a Banchero, Cunningham, or Wiggins type that is a good player long-term, but doesn't really give you title hopes.

If your goal is to maximize how long you can be a competitive team to get into the playoffs and maybe win a series once in a while, you trade Giannis for a massive haul (basically the Kareem trade all over again).

If your goal is to maximize your chance to win another title and you don't care that you are going to suck for 5-6 years after the window is completely slammed shut, you don't trade Giannis unless he puts a gun to your head.

Damian Lillard has proven he’s not fully committed to this team.  While he’s still a decent player, he’s not the game changer he was 3-4 years ago.  He’s also a bit older and more injury prone.  

As for Giannis, his game is not going to age well and he’s now 30.  If he were a few years younger, it’s a whole different discussion.  

Then there’s Jon Horst.  I’ve completely lost faith in his ability to field a good roster without giving away the farm to do so.   When you examine his moves, other than trading for Holiday what has worked out well in their favor?  

If I’m Giannis, and look at this roster and their ability to upgrade, I very well may want to explore a trade.  He’s got maybe 2-3 good years left.  This season looks lost and it’s probably time to move on.  For the Bucks to really compete in 2026 they would need to deal one or both of their future picks in 2031 and 2032 and no way would I consider that now as both very well may be lottery choices.  

The sad reality is had Middleton stayed healthy there’s a good chance they win another title or at least make it to the Finals a couple of more times.  

@Tschmack posted:

Damian Lillard has proven he’s not fully committed to this team.  While he’s still a decent player, he’s not the game changer he was 3-4 years ago.  He’s also a bit older and more injury prone.  

As for Giannis, his game is not going to age well and he’s now 30.  If he were a few years younger, it’s a whole different discussion.  

Then there’s Jon Horst.  I’ve completely lost faith in his ability to field a good roster without giving away the farm to do so.   When you examine his moves, other than trading for Holiday what has worked out well in their favor?  

If I’m Giannis, and look at this roster and their ability to upgrade, I very well may want to explore a trade.  He’s got maybe 2-3 good years left.  This season looks lost and it’s probably time to move on.  For the Bucks to really compete in 2026 they would need to deal one or both of their future picks in 2031 and 2032 and no way would I consider that now as both very well may be lottery choices.  

The sad reality is had Middleton stayed healthy there’s a good chance they win another title or at least make it to the Finals a couple of more times.  

This is really the play where it all went south for Middleton - when he slipped on the floor in Game 2 of the Bulls series in 2022. He and Giannis never finished a playoff game were they were both healthy at the same time again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SI_DLOZtuJs

it didn't even look that bad when it happened.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

This is really the play where it all went south for Middleton - when he slipped on the floor in Game 2 of the Bulls series in 2022. He and Giannis never finished a playoff game were they were both healthy at the same time again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SI_DLOZtuJs

it didn't even look that bad when it happened.

I thought it looked bad. Made me wince when he did the splits.