Bucks at Hornets

Jrue Holiday has been awful tonight. 4 for 13 from the floor and some bad turnovers.

Only a 7 point lead going into the 4th

Bucks give up 31 points the last 9 minutes of the third. And this time, it wasn't Lopez in being abused on the switches.

Another pathetic 4th quarter on offense. Lead down to 6 as Middleton can't buy a bucket. Giannis morphs into playoff Giannis.

Holiday blows a WIDE open layup. No one near him. Lead to 4 with 4 minutes left.

Now Giannis misses a 3-foot bunny.

Bucks have 3 points in close to 6 minutes. This does not appear to be a team any better able to finish playoff games even though the personnel should be better. The Bucks have everybody available and can't get anything on offense.

Somehow Holiday has morped into playoff Giannis now. A charge on Holiday and Bud uses up his challenge with no chance of overturning it.

This team just falls apart under pressure...it is maddening

DDV misses a WIDE open 10 footer. We blame Bud, but it's not that the Bucks aren't getting open looks. They just aren't executing.

PJ tucker can play defense...wow

Why have giannis bring the ball up under 2 minutes when you have a lead?  Jrue should do that since he can hit a free throw

W

Bucks do put them away, but still concerning that they struggle to execute against a team missing their two top players.

Yep...this game and how they wilted against the hawks is just deja vue

Bucks shoot like 25% from 3 and Charlotte goes to the line almost 15 more FT attempts

Take the W and move on

Don't look now, but the Bucks are looking at the 3 seed and Miami is now tied for the 6 seed.

If the Bucks sweep the Nets coming up they still have a shot at the 1 seed.

You could make a case they would be better off being the 4 seed than 3 seed to avoid having to play Miami in R1.  Obviously that would not be a good scenario given matchups.

There’s 2 games separating the 4-7 seeds so a lot can still play out.  

The play in game will be fascinating as well.  You think anyone wants to play a team like the Wizards?  Yes they don’t defend anyone, but Russ and Beal can go nuts at any time.  I think a Wizards and Nets first round series would be a lot of fun.

The Heat matchup may be no worse than playing the Celtics this year. Adebayo will give Giannis some trouble, but the Heat have a bunch of guys that play defense like Bryn Forbes that the Bucks are much better suited to take advantage of with Holiday.

Last year the Heat basically had an 8 man playoff rotation: Adebayo, Butler, Robinson, Crowder, Nunn, Herro, Iguodala, and Olynk. They've replaced Crowder and Olynk with Oladipo and Ariza. They let Crowder go to keep cap space for Giannis and don't really have anyone other than Adebayo that can match up with Giannis or Embiid in the East. Herro and Robinson are both poor defensive players and they have to be hidden. Oladipo is not what he was before the injury. Importantly, there is no way Butler is going to go off as easily as he did last year with Holiday around to guard him. PJ Tucker is around to be on the floor against small ball lineups. Most importantly, we will not have to worry about having playoff Bledsoe sitting at the 3 point line with no one within 10 feet of him in fourth quarters. He was 16 for 48 from the floor and 3 for 14 from 3 in that series last year.

My perspective on what would be considered a successful Bucks season has changed with the moves the Nets have made. Obviously, a first-round playoff exit to someone like the Heat would be a disaster and Bud would be gone (and maybe Middleton and/or Lopez would get moved.  A second-round exit after a hard-fought loss to the Sixers would be disappointing, but no one would look back at it and say the Bucks lost to a vastly inferior team. A loss to the Nets in the ECFs would be expected if that matchup occurs. If Durant, Harden, and Irving are healthy I don't think anyone is beating that team. While not quite as unfair as Durant playing alongside Steph and Klay, it approaches that when you iso Durant with Harden and Irving on the floor and then have the 4th best 3-point shooter in NBA history (Joe Harris) sitting as your 4th option. I don't know how you stop them. It sucks that they assembled that team by giving up nothing for Irving, swapping D. Russell for Durant, and getting Harden for 50 cents on the dollar after he club-hopped his way out of Houston. And then Blake Griffin gets rewarded for half-assing his last year in Detroit by getting to be the 6th man on a potential title team.

Speaking of Bledsoe, it's not going well. I'll bet he'll be traded for whatever they can get in the summer (or they'll give away a pick to clear that contract) and then bought out of that contract by someone. He'd be a great guy to have for the Jeff Teague role in Milwaukee (a MLE-type guy that can give you 15 quality minutes a game). He just Peter Principled his way to his level of incompetence in the NBA. He has a role on a good team, just not as a featured guy.

https://www.basketball-referen...ers/b/bledser01.html

Dumping Bledsoe proved to me a very good decision because if he’s not totally engaged that’s a lot of money to pay a guy that’s one dimensional.

Holiday is just such a better overall player that it’s not even close.  

As for the rest of the field in the East, what Milwaukee has to hope for is the Nets get knocked out but honestly I think Milwaukee is the only team in the East that can do it.   If the Heat has the same roster from last year I think they could give them a run for their money.  The 2021 Heat aren’t nearly as good or deep.  The Crowder move was puzzling.  Herro has also regressed big time.  

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

My perspective on what would be considered a successful Bucks season has changed with the moves the Nets have made. Obviously, a first-round playoff exit to someone like the Heat would be a disaster and Bud would be gone (and maybe Middleton and/or Lopez would get moved.

With what Paul has done in PHX, is it impossible to imagine a scenario where the Bucks trade Middleton for Paul? He has an option and could opt out and look for a 2-3 year deal, but how he has legitimized the Suns in a single year is unbelievable. Could he do that? I say yes.

Middleton is and always will be fool’s gold. The numbers are good, he slices up bums, but when it’s time to pay the piper and deliver in the biggest moments, he wilts. And teams have started to realize- you can live with Giannis scoring as long as you keep Middleton frustrated, because he’ll start to force things and start missing. Him shooting the Bucks out of games is an all too common occurrence this year. And in past years. If you can move him, you might want to kick the tires regardless of what happens this season short of a Finals appearance.

I’m surprised Paul doesn’t get more MVP attention.  OKC was a legit playoff team last year with him.  Phoenix might have the  best record in the league.

Paul for Middleton would be intriguing especially if Nwora continues to improve.  He reminds me a lot of Middleton and has similar measurables.  

@Music City posted:

With what Paul has done in PHX, is it impossible to imagine a scenario where the Bucks trade Middleton for Paul? He has an option and could opt out and look for a 2-3 year deal, but how he has legitimized the Suns in a single year is unbelievable. Could he do that? I say yes.

Middleton is and always will be fool’s gold. The numbers are good, he slices up bums, but when it’s time to pay the piper and deliver in the biggest moments, he wilts. And teams have started to realize- you can live with Giannis scoring as long as you keep Middleton frustrated, because he’ll start to force things and start missing. Him shooting the Bucks out of games is an all too common occurrence this year. And in past years. If you can move him, you might want to kick the tires regardless of what happens this season short of a Finals appearance.

I get frustrated with Middleton also, but I would disagree that he wilts in big moments. He has hit some clutch shots in the playoffs over the course of the last several years. Remember the 35 footer to put a game into OT against the Celtics in 2019? Hitting 3 FTs to force a time against the Heat last year (followed by Giannis getting called for a touch foul on Butler)? The 3 pointer to clinch their lone playoff win against Miami last year? He killed the Celtics in the 2019 playoffs. He's a 42.2 percent 3 point shooter in the playoffs in his career which is 19th all-time. He's one of the highest volume 3 point shooters on that list. For perspective, his playoff shooting percentage from 3 is higher than Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Kyrie Irving,

https://www.basketball-referen...g3_pct_career_p.html

Middleton wilting hasn't been the problem. The problem has been that opposing defenses have decided to stop two things against the Bucks offense. Obviously, building a wall against Giannis is priority one. But then, not letting Middleton get open looks is almost as high on their list. You have to give up something to stop these things and what other teams have decided to do is to let Bledsoe, DDV, etc. stand wide open at the 3 point line and dare them to make shots under pressure. It also doesn't help that Bud's strategy in halfcourt 4th quarter offense has been to have Giannis spend large portions of the shot clock driving to drive through the wall. When he gets stopped, he then throws the ball back out and they swing it to Middleton with about 5 seconds left and he has to create a shot when they know he has no options to pass out of the situation.

@Tschmack posted:

I’m surprised Paul doesn’t get more MVP attention.  OKC was a legit playoff team last year with him.  Phoenix might have the  best record in the league.

Paul for Middleton would be intriguing especially if Nwora continues to improve.  He reminds me a lot of Middleton and has similar measurables.  

Nwora reminds me more of Glenn Robinson. Middleton is an underrated defender. It's not like opposing teams search out who is guarding and try to exploit him. He does a credible job on guys like Durant, Tatum, etc. and makes them at least work for shots.

The Big Dog either couldn't or wouldn't effectively guard anybody. He'd be unplayable on defense in today's NBA. There is an almost straight line from the Big Dog to Jabari Parker to Nwora. All of them are exceptional halfcourt scorers that were defensive liabilities. It is possible Nwora gets better on defense but he was a great 2nd round pick (as opposed to the top overall and second overall picks for Robinson and Parker) and will have a long NBA career as at least a role player.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Middleton wilting hasn't been the problem. The problem has been that opposing defenses have decided to stop two things against the Bucks offense. Obviously, building a wall against Giannis is priority one. But then, not letting Middleton get open looks is almost as high on their list.

Middleton had one series where he hit 60% of his 3s and 59.8% from the field overall, which skews things a little bit.

The last two playoffs, he’s shooting 40.7% from the floor overall, and 40.1% from 3. He has to be able to take the pressure off of Giannis when they build the wall- and for 2 seasons in the playoffs he didn’t. Hitting around 40% from 2 isn’t getting it done. This is why I am concerned. He lights up shit teams, and come playoff time it’s 4/12 and 6/17. When the defensive is up in his ass, he wilts.

Will we see a difference with Holiday on the team now? We should... but to what degree will likely determine their fate. When they fall apart offensively, they fall apart defensively.