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In the end, they are really selecting this coach because they need someone who will be an upgrade in the 4th quarter of close playoff games. In every other respect, Bud is a Hall of Fame level coach. The underplayed aspect of this coaching change, is that if Giannis doesn't turtle up at the FT line in 2019 and in 2022, Bud is still here. I don't know how a coaching change is going to change the Bucks Achilles' hell which is that Giannis can't shoot.

We won't know whether this coaching change pays off until next April. At this point, it doesn't matter if the Bucks win 70 games or 45 games in the regular season.

Hard no to Mark Jackson, Scott Brooks, and Nick Nurse. Those are all downgrades from Bud. Nurse won a title in 2019, but was terrible with a good roster the last three years.

Monte Williams is probably the guy I'd want and see as a potential upgrade. Atkinson or Borrego wouldn't excite me, but I'd be OK with it.

I'm curious if Becky Hammon will be a candidate. Given her pedigree and how big a difference she made in her first year in the WNBA, she has the chance to be a difference maker as a coach. Most of these guys are interchangeable, and Bud is a better regular season coach than all of them, and their equal as a playoff coach. Nurse beat the Bucks in 2019, but the reporting was that Kawhi asked to guard Giannis after Game 2. That was the difference in the series.

Bud, Nurse, Monte Williams, Scott Brooks, Mark Jackson, Borrego, Steve Kerr, Mike Dantoni, and Atkinsson. There's probably not much difference. You want to avoid the complete idiots like Jason Kidd (let's miss a FT up 3 with 2 seconds left to avoid the 4 point play - still the dumbest thing I've ever heard in coaching).

Spoelstra and Kerr are the real difference makers in my opinion. Popovich is great, but he's made some of the same types of mistakes as Bud. Bud took out Lopez against Miami to allow them to tie Game 5. Pop took out Duncan that allowed the rebound to set up Ray Allen's three to snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory in that Heat-Spurs series.

Pop won because he had two of the top 40 players in NBA history and supplemented them with borderline HOFers (Tony Parker and Ginobili are the same types of players as Middleton and Holiday). Bud was a Pop clone as Popovich didn't make many adjustments in playoff series either, but the Bucks wanted an upgrade.

@Tschmack posted:

There are some rumors out there about Steve Kerr.  Itโ€™s hard to imagine that happening, but he loves Giannis and his end of season comments didnโ€™t exactly paint a rosy picture of whatโ€™s happening in Golden State right now.  

If it isnโ€™t Kerr I think the Hammon choice would be fascinating.   Clearly she can coach

I agree on Hammon.

But even with Kerr and Spoelstra, winning titles comes down to one of your players going nuclear. Spoelstra has never won a title without having one of the top 10 players of all time playing for him. I doubt he wins this year either.

Boston won yesterday because Tatum went for 51. The Sixers got to a game 7 because Harden was spectacular in two games in the series (and terrible in the 4 losses). The Warriors got out of the first round this year because Curry went for 50 in a Game 7. Bud won a title in Milwaukee because Middleton went for 40+ a few times in the run and Giannis had perhaps the best closeout game in Finals history.

Spoelstra coached circles around Bud, but if Jimmy Butler plays more like Jimmy Butler in the Bucks series (that is, a borderline HOFer but not Michael Jordan on steroids), the Bucks win. You could argue Bud's drop defensive schemes allow guys to get comfortable and make performances like that more likely, but even then Butler's performance was an outlier.

Jimmy Butler against the Bucks shot 60% from the floor, 44% from three, and averaged 38-6-5 against one of the best defensive players of all time. Butler is not known as a good 3 point shooter at all. He's at 32% and approaching 2,000 attempts in his career.

The Heat beat the Knicks in the second round, and went for 25-7-6 against weaker defensive players than Holiday. Still great production, but nothing like the Bucks series, especially when you consider he shot 44% from the floor and 11% from three.

Bud, M. Williams, Nurse, Doc Rivers, Frank Vogel, and Udoka have all at least made the NBA Finals as coaches and all have been fired in the last 14 months. Udoka was the only one not for performance reasons.

Nate McMillan overachieved and made the ECFs two years ago and was also fired this year.

We could easily see Darvin Ham and Joe Mazzula (two first-year coaches) in the NBA Finals. Somehow, someway, Jason Kidd has a job.

Spoelstra, Kerr, Popovich, and a bunch of retreads.

You could argue about talent-level as a coach for all these guys, but...

Bud got fired after Giannis went 10 for 23 from the line in an elimination game and Holiday shit the bed for most of the Heat series. He lost a series in 7 games last year when his second best player was out for the whole series.

Williams got fired after Chris Paul went down in a playoff series on a team that had traded away all its depth for Durant.

Doc Rivers got fired after his two future HOF players (Embiid and Harden) went 8 for 29 in an elimination game.

Vogel got fired because AD and LeBron were in street clothes for large parts of the last two seasons.

McMillan got fired because Trae Young didn't like him asking him to actually play defense.

The chances are that none of these teams are any better next year after switching coaches. That includes the Bucks. The Bucks have been eliminated in 2 of the last 5 years in the playoffs because Giannis can't consistently shoot FTs or hit a shot outside of 5 feet. Three times of the last 5 years, the Bucks lost series when either Giannis or Middleton missed multiple games.

Rivers got fired because Harden may be the worst HOF player in Game 7s in NBA history. Chris Paul getting hurt may have gotten Williams fired (and did eventually get Dantoni fired in Houston when he got hurt back then). Vogel got fired because he couldn't keep LeBron and AD healthy?

It just seems like a lot of these firings happen because there is no one else to blame and the GMs/owners need scapegoats.

I still don't see anything that is going to upgrade over Bud.

It's already a bit of a rash decision to fire Bud. Imagine if the Heat make the NBA Finals? You fired a guy who lost to the team that won the Conference in a series where your best player missed 3 of the 5 games? After last year, when your second best player wasn't available and you lost to the team that won the conference? Less than two years after you won a title.

@Boris posted:

I think Monty Williams will be an upgrade over Bud.

Want to know what would be the best "upgrade"??

Finding a way to get Damian Lillard on this team.

Lillard solves the problems on offense, but he's a terrible defensive player.

You know who lit him up in the playoffs a few years ago? Jrue Holiday when he was on the Pelicans. Jrue did to Lillard what Jimmy Butler did to Jrue.

To get Lillard you have to move Middleton or Holiday. If you move Holiday, the Bucks literally don't have anyone to guard a wing player other than Giannis. Holiday guarded everyone well while he was in a Bucks uniform except Jimmy Butler.

@MNPackman posted:

Woj bomb:

Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn
ESPN Sources: The Bucks are narrowing group of top candidates in franchiseโ€™s head coaching search: Nick Nurse, Golden State assistant Kenny Atkinson and Toronto assistant Adrian Griffin. These coaches will be part of final conversations with Milwaukee leadership this week.

Nick Nurse last three years:

27-45, 48-34, 41-41. Not a single playoff series win.

Kenny Atkinson career record is 118-190.

Adrian Griffin has no head coaching experience.

I want no part of Nick Nurse, but that's where this appears to be going. His own players disliked him.

https://theathletic.com/443653...e-out-raptors-coach/

If Nurse gets hired elsewhere, it will be probably end up being his top assistant (Griffin).

Iโ€™d be fine with Monty Williams.  You canโ€™t win in the playoffs with Chris Paul and Ayton is a lazy SOB from the sounds of it.  Then you have KD and Booker and their passive aggressive bullshit and Iโ€™m not sure Pat Riley in his prime could have gotten them over the hump.

As for Lillard, itโ€™s not so much the money itโ€™s that the Bucks donโ€™t have much to give back.  Trading Middleton and Pat C would work, but if Iโ€™m Portland I want more - like Holiday and Middleton.   Keeping Holiday is paramount because heโ€™s their best wing defender.  

@Boris posted:

libertyballers.com/2023/5/27/23740112/nick-nurse-daryl-morey-philadelphia-76ers-suns-bucks-joel-embiid-james-harden-doc-rivers-suns-maxey

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Yup looks like he wasn't really interested which is 100% fine with me.

Griffin has the lowest floor of any of the candidates, but he's the one most likely to bring the most innovative ideas. We'll see. It would be really nice now if Giannis signed his extension to add another 3 years to his contract if he was one of the main reasons they hired Griffin.

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