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Brooklyn will go into Sunday thinking they have everything still going for them. And why not? They played horribly and lost in the final 30 seconds. And the Bucks equally played horribly and still won.

So who has it going for them on Sunday? The Bucks have not played anything that resembles a competent offense since the start of the series. Does anyone really think that’s going to change?

After playing Holiday 45 min, Middleton 43 min, and Giannis 42 min, the extra day of rest should help. Irving and Durant are also playing over 40 min/game.

Is this the double overtime game that the Bucks pissed away against Toronto in game three that catapulted Toronto to 4 straight wins?

Perhaps they need to start Portis at the 5 and have Lopez come off the bench.  You have to honor Portis and his ability to score.  Lopez has been solid on D but he’s out of sorts offensively right now.

I also understand why Tucker is in there but he’s not really a scoring threat and is so much more valuable coming off the bench.  

Giannis should be defending Durant to start the game and then have Tucker come off the bench and D him up.

Why not have Teague start at the 2 guard spot?  He’s a reliable, steady player but most importantly he’s smart with the basketball and makes good passes and decisions.  

Last edited by Tschmack

Middleton has shot 6 for 19 from 3 in the series. 31.6% from him is not a recipe to win games. The bigger problem is that almost everyone has been even worse from 3. Middleton's shots are almost always tightly contested. The Nets try not to let them beat them. Almost every other player (save Forbes) gets wide open looks.

Look at these stats.

Giannis 3-16

Forbes 3-13

Lopez 3-9

Tucker 1-8

Holiday 4-13

Connaughton 0-3

Portis 0-6

I think the "break glass in case of emergency" guy they may have to play more is Thanasis. If the rest of their bench is going to go 3 for 22 from 3 (and at least one of Forbes' makes was in deep garbage time in Game 2), at least play the guy that will get you the extra possessions with hustle and is at least an average defender. The Nets go after Forbes, Connaughton, and Portis like sharks sensing blood every time they are in the game.

The Bucks played a great defensive game last night, but it required playing Giannis, MIddleton, and Holiday almost 45 minutes each. Lopez has to stay on the court because they've determined they can't trust Portis. Tucker is a great defender, but his offensive repertoire makes Thanasis look good in comparison.

Losing DDV had a bigger effect than I thought it would. He's underachieved, but he's a competent two-way NBA rotation player. Forbes and Portis were cheap free agents because neither can play defense. Tucker was available in a trade for relative peanuts because he has no offensive skills other than shooting awkward three pointers. Connaughton shouldn't be getting minutes after you shorten your rotation for the playoffs. He's fine at 4 million a year to be your 10th guy, but he really doesn't do anything well enough to make a difference against good teams.

You know who would be really nice to have right now? An athletic wing with long arms to bother guys like Irving and Durant that could provide some energy plays and be at least adequate from 3. He doesn't have to be a star, just another guy like Tucker that can steal some minutes for you. That guy was Torrey Craig.

Even the Bucks security staff sucks in the playoffs.

I'm reupping this with the new information that the first security guard that ran on the court to break up the Durant/Tucker jawing match by bumping Tucker was Kevin Durant's personal security guard. My apologies to the  Fiserv security staff.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2...vs-nets-nba-playoffs

So personal security guards are allowed on the court? Durant should be issued a flagrant 1 for that. Better yet, the Bucks should hire Brock Lesner as Giannis "personal security guard", and he can rough up any Net that gets in Giannis' face.

Wait… what? That big dude who ran into Tucker works for Kevin Durant??? That’s completely fucked… how can that guy be allowed to do that? He has no fucking business being allowed on the court during a game, are you kidding? That’s at minimum a fine, and I’ll be honest- a suspension should be considered. That dude came barreling in and ran right into the opponents player- could have hurt him, a lot of things could have gone sideways in that moment- and that was between two players on the court. He has no fucking business at all being on the floor during a game. No way…

Bucks start 1 for 6 from the floor in Game 4. Down 9-2. The Bud doomsday clock is starting to tick louder. Hard to fault Bud though during this opening sequence. Holiday missed 3 wide-open shots and goes 1 for 4 and Giannis missed what should be an easy layup for him.

Even though Kryie broke Thanasis' ankles on that move, Thanasis jumped back up and contested the 3. No one will probably mention that, but that was an amazing play by Thanasis to get back up and contest that. The guy never gives up on anything.

It's also interesting that Bryant got the end-of-quarter defensive minutes.

THe fouls are 7 to 2 and the big thing is having to sit Giannis with 2.

Down 11 and in danger of losing contact.

Of course, if Jrue Holiday doesn't completely shit the bed to start (to continue his embarrassing series), the Bucks are still Ok. He's 1 for 6 to start and I think 4 of his shots haven't even hit the rim (2 blocks and 2 airballs). He's 18 for 49 from the floor and 4 for 14 from the 3 in the series.

@Tschmack posted:

For the life of me I’ll never understand how a superstar like Giannis gets so few calls.  He gets hacked or shoved every time he makes it to the rack.  Complete bullshit.

He's not in one of the media markets the league likes?

@Tschmack posted:

If they aren’t careful this one could get away from them quickly

Giannis coming back in completely changes the entire game. Those 2 first-quarter charges were the biggest contributor to falling behind by 11 (along with Jrue Holiday making Bledsoe look good on offense).

@Tschmack posted:

For the life of me I’ll never understand how a superstar like Giannis gets so few calls.  He gets hacked or shoved every time he makes it to the rack.  Complete bullshit.

The lack of calls on the drives happen to a lot of dominant inside players (Shaq was probably fouled 20 times a game). It's the calls like the Griffin charge today that are infuriating.

A couple of days ago, son and I were talking about how good Giannis would be in the post and how little the Bucks play him there. That surge was caused by the disruption Giannis caused in the paint

Every Giannis FT is a clear violation. Why continue with a routine that isn't even working that will bring a violation into play every  time?

I'd rather he just aim at the middle of the square on the backboard and "Harvey Catchings" it into the bucket

We will find our what these two teams are made of the next couple of games.  I liked the Bucks gameplan in the 1st half; not as much in the 2nd half where I think they got a bit lazy and shot too many 3s.  

Lopez had a big impact today.  Portis too. Go big and make KD and those punk asses try to play defense.  As long as the refs don’t take over I like the Bucks chances now.

2 things....

  1. They MUST keep the phsicality up, especially on Durant.
  2. They MUST continue moving the ball on offense. That shit that happened in game 3 isn't sustainable. Glad they recognized it today.

Tucker had a really good game today.  As good as good as Durant is he’s fucking soft as tissue paper.  Get in his grill and make it a physical deal.  He will fade like he did today.  He will make shots but get him off balance and make it tough for him.  

Nets will bring Jordan out of mothballs now because don’t have a small ball lineup anymore. The Bucks can then counter by mixing some small ball and Lopez pulling Jordan out to the perimeter. Jordan can’t go laterally with Giannis so that’ll be very difficult for them to counter.

Rolling my eyes at Nash and the media complaining about Tucker’s defense on Durant. Or that Giannis should get a flagrant for coming up under Irving… lots of short memories out there. Giannis gets assaulted nightly, his season ended last year on an ankle similar to Irving’s and all we heard about was how the Bucks weren’t good enough blah blah blah… short fucking memories…

I'd expect several questionable calls against the Bucks tomorrow night. I'd guess the over/under on Durant FT attempts will be about 16. Tucker will definitely have 3 fouls in the first half.

The other thing that is going to happen is at least one more 10-second violation on a Giannis FT. In this case, he'll deserve it. I timed his FT attempts yesterday and they all were more than 12 seconds (after he received the ball). At some level it matters less for Giannis than other players because he doesn't make them anyways, but you know the whining from Nash is going to go exponentially up because they are in deep trouble.

If you didn't know the details, you'd have expected a Nets sweep with these shooting splits after 4 games for the Bucks. The Bucks have an 8 man rotation. Of those 8 none is shooting better than 33% from 3 in the series.

Obviously Harden going down tilted things towards the Bucks, but Brown is a much better defender than Harden (or at least a much more willing defender) and I think that might have contributed to the Bucks struggling more on offense.

Giannis 54% FG, 19% 3FG, 32% FT

Middleton 39/33/79

Holiday 39/30/33

Lopez 44/33/100

Tucker 42/29/100

Forbes 33/26/80

Connaughton 40/25/100

Portis 33/0/0

I’m concerned about that as well and think that’s why Nash complained about it to set up for tomorrow.  I fully expect Durant to go to the line like 20 times and for Tucker and Giannis to get into foul trouble early to keep the Nets in the game.  

This is a golden opportunity for Milwaukee to take game 5 and then close things out at home for game 6.  They cannot take Brooklyn lightly even without Irving.  Harris is capable of having a big game as is KD.  Obviously they are significantly better with Kyrie but they need to play with urgency and toughness like they did in game 4.

Last edited by Tschmack

I'I timed his FT attempts yesterday and they all were more than 12 seconds (after he received the ball).

That's funny because I did the same thing on 3 separate trips to the line.  12.3 to 12.4 seconds is what I had for all of them.   I guarantee you there will be a violation or 2 called tomorrow night.

@Tschmack posted:

Nash complaining after the game that Tucker’s defense on Durant was “borderline non-basketball”

STFU Nash.  KD gets more calls in his favor than just about anyone.  

One of the Nets bench players on Giannis smacks him across his chest with his arm to go after the ball under the basket, zero call.

As long as they call it consistently, I see no issue with the reffing & letting them play. Physical game. That was 80's-90's basketball - Bulls vs. Pistons style. I loved it

The problem is Durant is a jump shooter.  He thrives on drawing ticky tack calls and rarely goes to the hoop.   Simply put, he doesn’t like contact.  Tucker is the perfect guy to get in face and make him work for his shots.  He’s basically a more athletic Anthony Mason - a bowling ball that will use his size and strength and is hard to move.  Durant can certainly shoot over him, but PJT will fight through screens and get KD off balance and rhythm.  

@Tschmack posted:

The problem is Durant is a jump shooter.  He thrives on drawing ticky tack calls and rarely goes to the hoop.   Simply put, he doesn’t like contact.  Tucker is the perfect guy to get in face and make him work for his shots.  He’s basically a more athletic Anthony Mason - a bowling ball that will use his size and strength and is hard to move.  Durant can certainly shoot over him, but PJT will fight through screens and get KD off balance and rhythm.  

This makes him a really tough guy to officiate. He might be the most unstoppable jump shooter I've ever seen if you are not allowed to touch him at all. Most guys at his shooting level (Curry, Klay, Lillard, to name a few) are shorter so that a taller player can bother the shot even without getting physical. Durant is 7 foot so can shoot over almost anybody. If he's comfortable and not knocked off balance he's as close to automatic as it gets. The problem is that he's a stick and the same amount of contact that Giannis, LeBron, Kawhi, etc. would just absorb  in their torso and legs without even noticing it is enough to move Durant a lot. If guys like Giannis and LeBron got calls for the same amount of physical contact, they'd shoot 30 FTs a game.

If I’m Giannis, I’m offended that they’re saying that officiating and injuries are impacting the series, and I go out with a kill order for those fuckers Tuesday. Aggressive, unapologetic, confident, “us against the world,” all of it.

Last edited by Music City

I don’t think you will see Kyrie the rest of the series.  If you do, he won’t be nearly as explosive and that’s 75% his game.  Yes he could likely still shoot and score, but it really tilts the scales in Jrue Holiday’s direction.  If Holiday has a weakness, it’s defending smaller and quicker guys.  

Irving is probably the hardest guy in the league to defend off the dribble.  If his ankle isn’t right, that quickness and burst will be limited big time.  

The Bucks and Giannis need to come out and punch them in the mouth and don’t give them any thought that they can win.  Basically do what Brooklyn did to you in game 2.  You don’t need to win by 40, but you don’t want the Nets to hang around either because that’s when the refs can influence things.

@Tschmack posted:

I don’t think you will see Kyrie the rest of the series.  If you do, he won’t be nearly as explosive and that’s 75% his game.  Yes he could likely still shoot and score, but it really tilts the scales in Jrue Holiday’s direction.  If Holiday has a weakness, it’s defending smaller and quicker guys.  

Irving is probably the hardest guy in the league to defend off the dribble.  If his ankle isn’t right, that quickness and burst will be limited big time.  

The Bucks and Giannis need to come out and punch them in the mouth and don’t give them any thought that they can win.  Basically do what Brooklyn did to you in game 2.  You don’t need to win by 40, but you don’t want the Nets to hang around either because that’s when the refs can influence things.

I agree on Holiday's troubles defending Kyrie (or a guy like Kemba Walker or Trae Young). Holiday's strength is that he can guard 1s through 4s effectively because of his core strength and savvy. The DDV loss was bigger for this series than any other opponent (other than a healthy Kemba Walker) because he was a natural matchup against Kyrie with Holiday more suited for Harden.

Eric Bledsoe probably did a better job on Kyrie than anyone, but that was Bledsoe's strength - matchups against smaller, quick guys like Irving, Trae Young, and Walker. DDV was a similar kind of defender.

If (and it's still a big if) the Bucks get by the Nets, the Sixers almost certainly await and the only matchup problem that scares you there is Embiid. Lopez is an ideal defender against him, but only he and Giannis can come close to holding up against Embiid. Holiday and Tucker should have a huge advantage over Tobias Harris and George Hill.

@Music City posted:

If I’m Giannis, I’m offended that they’re saying that officiating and injuries are impacting the series, and I go out with a kill order for those fuckers Tuesday. Aggressive, unapologetic, confident, “us against the world,” all of it.

He also needs to speed up his FT routine because I'm worried the Bucks are going to lose a game at some point over his issues there. The narrative that the refs are favoring him gets a big assist by the fact he is clearly committing a violation at the line on every FT attempt.

He also has to be aggressively smart tomorrow. When I say that, I mean the driving into the lane aspect when it's a 50/50 block/charge call. He's probably not getting any of those calls tomorrow.

Harden officially ruled out now. The Bucks with a golden opportunity to kick the Nets in the nads while they are down. Not cheering injuries by any means, but if they can get #5 on the road, this is likely over in 6.

If the Bucks get past Brooklyn I think there is a decent chance they win it all.  Philly won’t do it. The Bucks have a sizable advantage in the backcourt and Giannis can take Embiid 1 on 1.

Last edited by Tschmack

So Bud just has to get a team with three max players, two 2021 All-defensive first team selections, and another player who might be the most effective guy in the league to guard Durant (Tucker) past a Nets team composed of Durant, a semi-washed up Blake Griffin, and Joe Harris (along with guys that wouldn't start for any NBA team).

The script flipped pretty quickly on this. If Bud can't win two of three in this situation (which likely means the next two), he's probably gone. If Harden and Irving were playing and the Bucks had been competitive but lost in 5 or 6 games, he'd have likely been retained.

I love this narrative of Harden coming out and gutting it out and getting supported by the fans in Brooklyn. The guy has played in 36 games for the Nets. It's not like Willis Reed playing in front of his supportive Knicks fans.

The Bucks could go up by 30 and I wouldn't be comfortable, especially against  team with Durant.

All depends on the offense… the Bucks need to keep playing good offense- sharing the ball, moving, hustling for rebounds… they do that this thing’s a blowout.

Good defensive quarter, but now they have to weather the foul trouble. All three elite Bucks on-ball defenders have two fouls.

It's interesting they haven't gone to Portis yet. They are going to have to get some minutes out of him or maybe Jeff Teague.

Middleton made a real bad decision there… you go right at Durant and shoot that? Go at him… don’t let him off the hook by leaving him an easy block. Or be smarter and go to Holiday who has the better matchup.

Last edited by Music City

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